Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Atlanta Hawks
Oftentimes the best value with a team in the NBA is when they’re on the road as the point spread tends to get too much shading toward the home team. In other words, if the Hawks were hosting the Cavaliers here, Cleveland would likely be laying a very small number but we’ll be very comfortable grabbing a large number of points in this match-up since the Hawks are at Cleveland. One of the keys here is that the Cavaliers have continued to win games so they’re getting a lot of respect from odds makers and bettors alike. What is somewhat “hidden” here is that many of the wins are coming by tight margins and so there is value right now in going against Cleveland.
From March 1st through March 16th the Cavaliers went 8-1 and yet six of those eight wins came by single digit margins. In fact, Cleveland’s average margin in those six wins was less than five points per victory. This included a one point win at Atlanta on March 1st! That makes this a revenge game for the Hawks and it is also is likely to be a point spread filled with value! This is also a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are off of big games with Orlando Tuesday and Portland Thursday. Also, the Cavs have a road game on deck at New Jersey tomorrow. The Hawks should definitely be able to test Cleveland in this spot! Atlanta, through games of March 16th, had a five game winning streak in place and the last four losses the Hawks have suffered have come by an average margin of just 3 points per defeat. They definitely are playing their best basketball of the season as of games through March 16th and they will be up for LeBron James and Company in this spot! Not only is that because of LeBron, it’s also because this is the only game the Hawks have against a conference opponent from March 14th to March 26th. With the Hawks trying to cling to the #4 spot in the conference plus having revenge here, Atlanta is absolutely going to be a “tough out” for the Cavs to “put away” here. Consider a small play on the HAWKS on Saturday afternoon.
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