<TABLE class=tborder id=post190892 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cbcbcb 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #cbcbcb 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #cbcbcb 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cbcbcb 1px solid" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_190892 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #a8a8a8 1px solid">wunderdogsports
Game: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -141 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)
What a difference a year makes, as this San Diego team just keeps putting a bigger number in the loss column. After riding high on a season's best 13-6 run, the Padres have fallen back to what we have known them to be this season - a poor team that just doesn’t' score, and when they do they lose anyway. Their current run is 6-23, with six-straight in the loss column. The Pads have scored five runs or more in their last three, a feat they have accomplished only twice before all season. However, both times they did, it was followed by a loss. Cincinnati enters playing very well at 12-7 over their last 19, and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last eight. The Reds certainly have enough to get the win here.
Game: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Florida -111 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4.5)
Anytime you get a chance to lay short odds playing against the Braves on the road, it is worth a long look. The Braves were humiliated at home by the lowly Nats dropping the last two of a three-game set in Atlanta. The Braves road resume is not pretty, where they have been an anemic 15-32 on the season. Florida continues to surprise just a half game out in the East, and look like a team that’s improving. What they have done is beat the bad teams at home consistently, having logged a 21-11 mark against teams with a losing record on the season at home. They are playing superb baseball right now winners of eight of their last 11 games, and we will ride them at home in this one.
Game: Atlanta at Florida (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.4)
We indicated why Florida was a valued choice against the moneyline here, so it is hard to resist the nearly two-to-one dog role they face vs. the runline. The value is increased off the fact that the Marlins have been a momentum-based home team all season. They are 22-12 against the -1.5 runline at home when they are playing their fourth straight at home or more.
Game: Boston at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +133 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4)
It is hard to figure out this Boston team, but why not take advantage of the perception vs. the reality? Boston is a good team, but not on the road. They have been nearly unbeatable at home producing a 36-11 mark and a winning percentage of 76.6%. They have been a horrible road team at 21-32 producing a winning percentage of 39.6%. Recently, their road woes have been even worse as they have now produced just two wins in their last 12 road games. The bottom line is at this loss rate on the road projected over 162 games, they would lose nearly 100. A team like that would never be favored on the road, especially in this range hence the value. You must also remember that this is a team that has already taken two of three at home over Boston already this season. There is just too much value here to pass this one up.
Game: Boston at Seattle (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Seattle +1.5 runs -131 (runline) (risk 5 to win 3.8)
Our logic against the moneyline here prevails against the runline as well, and a chance to double-dip a game that features a lot of value on the home team. Add in the fact that Boston strands a lot of base runners this season, and has scored three runs or less in three straight games. Teams in this situation have been 137-210 to the -1.5 runline, so more value on Seattle against the runline as well. Seattle has also feasted at home on the runline against teams that strand 7.5 runners a game or more such as Boston, where they are 62-37 against the runline over such teams.
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