Service Plays Monday 7/21/08

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The Gr8 1
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INDIAN COWBOY

Monday\'s Comp Selection

Comp selections are never the pod, but one of the premium selections on the card. It adds a little more to the thread each day and I simply believe if you put something out, it should be something that you are actually playing.

Angels/Indians Over 8.5 (Bonus Play)

Normally I\'m not a fan of taking overs with Santana, but he comes off a great start and is in for a little bit of let down here and remember the Indians are looking to show some heart after a terrible first half and they had a decent home stand where they at least played better, heck, the Angels could get quite a few runs on Byrd alone as he comes off one of his few half-decent starts and I think this game is likely to be more competitive than expected as I have this at possibly 10 runs, given that the over is 5-0 for the Indians of late on the road, the over is 4-0 when Byrd faces a winning team meaning his pitching does not hold up as well as the over is 4-0 for Santana following a quality appearance, I\'ll take my chances here on the over.

research:

The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn\'t picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the Indians run-line here, I\'m not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.

thanks ... does anyone ever get his paid plays anymore. Just curious
 

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thanks cpaw

this daily thread helps a lot...i've been raking in dough following jeffersonsports and budin's picks...appreciate all the info on here!!
 

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STU FINER

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

We like the Orioles to get the job done here tonight. Don’t let a few tough days against the Tigers get you down on the Orioles pitching staff. Their bullpen has been great all season. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of just 3.49 this season.

The Orioles faced an ace yesterday in Justin Verlander. It won’t be that same type of pitcher on the mound for the Jays tonight. The Jays send their number five to the hill tonight. Their number five is a 23 year old Florida native named Jesse Litsch.

If you would like at Jesse’s numbers you would think he has pitched very well. He did come out of the gate hot but he has been getting in lots of trouble recently. Jesse went just 2.2 innings in his last start allowing seven hits and earned runs. He hasn’t won in his last three starts and doesn’t pitch well on the road. The Orioles are the play here tonight.

Baltimore Orioles (-)

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

Two very hot teams collide in the Bronx tonight. The Twins and Yankees are moving down that same road. These two teams both started out the season slow but have turned it on as of late. The Twins have actually played great ball for a month. The Yankees are fresh off their home sweep of the Athletics.

When the Yankees are going well it doesn’t matter who they are facing. This is a team that still has a big time line-up. The Twins have to fly all the way to New York tonight with no off day that is not an easy thing to do.

While the Twins have played great ball as of late, most of that has been in their own ball-park. The Yankees are home and are eight games over .500 in their building, look for them to continue their modest winning streak.

New York Yankees (-)

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

The Athletics are a team that is fading fast folks. There are good reasons for that as well. This is a team that has been in the race all season. The problem now is the fact they just traded two of their three best pitchers. Rich Harden and Joe Blanton are now in the National League.

Oakland already has a problem scoring runs. This is a team that is ranked 23 in total runs scored. They rank 27th in batting average hitting under .250 and all season they have hit just seventy home-runs. Now you want them to go on the road and beat one of baseball’s best young pitchers? That just isn’t going to happen folks.

Scott Kazmir will pitch a big time game. We know the line is high but it should be, take the Rays they will continue their winning ways at home.

Tampa Bay Rays (-)

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox

We look for the Sox to bounce back here at home. We have told you time and time again that the White Sox are one of the best teams in all of baseball. We know that everyone talks about the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. We know people are behind the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers but the White Sox are just as good.

The Sox are the only team to rank in the top five in both total offense and total defense (pitching). This is a team that scores almost five runs per game. They can out-slug almost any team in all of baseball. They have hit over a 132 home runs this season already (which ranks third in baseball).

The Rangers have a great offense, we aren’t going to knock it but remember that hitting gets in streaks. Good pitching always shuts down good hitting. Take the home team and lay the wood.

Chicago White Sox (-)

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

We like the Royals and their youth folks. We like their core players a lot. You better get used to some of the names we are going to mention.

Jose Guillen, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon have led a young dynamic team to respectability. The Royals are 5-2 in their last seven contests, and that actually includes a 3-1 mark against the White Sox (they played a series before the all-star break at home against them).

Zach Miner is no one special. He is just 3-3 this season with an ERA of 4.23. In fact the Tigers are only starting him this game because they are desperate. Their pitching is in shambles. Miner has tried his hand at starting over his last few seasons. He is a .500 pitcher and he is lucky to be that. An ERA over 5.00 shows us exactly that.

Luke Hochevar was on top of his game in his last start. He won’t have to be perfect to pick up a win tonight against the Tigers. The Royals have dominated the Tigers all season and we expect the same thing to occur tonight. Take the Royals and be confident.

Kansas City Royals (-)

Cleveland Indians at LA Angels

We like the Angels to continue playing good baseball on their current home stand. Tonight the Angels send one of their best pitchers to the mound. Ervin Santana has finally put it together this season. Ervin is 11-3 on the season and has an ERA of just 3.34.

Ervin finished up the first half on a high note. On the road he went to Oakland and threw seven innings of shutout ball. Not only did he put up zeros he also struck out ten batters.
How about his last home start, you ask? He went seven innings, allowed just two runs and struck out seven guys.

Santana has always been a better pitcher at home. This 25 year old can shut down any lineup, especially a weak Cleveland line-up that is without their two top offensive threats.

LA Angels (-)

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

We know the Red Sox have struggled on the road but we feel they will get the job done tonight against a weak Seattle Mariners baseball team. Jon Lester has really been the unsung hero for the Red Sox this season. He is 7-3 on the season with an ERA of just 3.38. How many people out there would realize he has better numbers than Josh Beckett this season? That is a fact though.

Jon hasn’t had a problem pitching on the road this season. Lester has a winning mark on the road. He has allowed just four home runs all season away from Fenway park. This is a left handed pitcher in the mold of an Andy Pettitte. He features a plus fastball and a devastating curve ball.

Just two starts ago we saw him pitch a big time game at Yankee Stadium. A complete game five hit shutout against the Yankees that included eight strikeouts. The Sox will get back on track tonight and win a road game.

Boston Red Sox (-)


National League

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee has been rolling since their blockbuster trade of C.C. Sabathia. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. That also includes a winning streak of four. They have won every single game since the all-star break. That includes three wins in a row on the road.

Seth McClung goes for the Brewers tonight. He has been pitching very well this season even though you may not hear his name brought up often. Seth has lost just one game on the road all-season. He has pitched 35 innings and has an ERA of just 3.28.

The St. Louis Cardinals had to work very hard to take care of the lowly Padres. Tonight they won’t be able to beat a good team.

Milwaukee Brewers (+)

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins

We know the Braves have struggled on the road this season. Let’s be honest though, what team hasn’t struggled on the road this season? Christopher Volstad pitches for the Florida Marlins. Volstad is a talented pitcher but he isn’t quite ready. If the Marlins had any veteran presence Volstad would still be in the minors.

The Braves will bounce back after their tough series against the Nationals. No doubt that was a disappointing series, but the Braves still have a ton of talent. The Braves also send one of their best pitchers to the mound tonight. Jorge is just 4-4 but he has an earned run average of just 3.06.

Jorge has been lights out on the road. He has made six starts and has lost just two ball games while posting an ERA of 1.80. If there is a pitcher to trust on the road Jorge is that guy. Look for him to take care of the over-aggressive Florida Marlins team.

Atlanta Braves (+)

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

The Reds had a very tough game yesterday against the Mets. It wasn’t only the fact they lost but it was how they lost and why they lost. First of all the Reds weren’t able to win the game behind their ace. It is always tough for a team to lose a game when their ace hits the bump.

The Reds also were let down by their sloppy defense and bad bull-pen pitching. They had to use a ton of pitchers yesterday and for an extended period of time as the game went in to extras.

Homer Bailey goes for the Reds tonight. He will be replacing the injured Aaron Harang in Cincinnati. Bailey is yet to win a game and has struggled this season. Bailey is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.00. Look for the Padres behind Banks to get the job done.

San Diego Padres (+)

LA Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

The Dodgers have battled so well in their last series. They were able to steal one against the Diamondbacks yesterday in Arizona. The Dodgers have started to finally hit more. They are actually a top the division in the very weak NL West. Last night the Dodgers scored a total of six runs on twelve hits. The most impressive part was the fact they scored five runs in just the ninth inning. Not too shabby for a team that had struggled to score runs all season.

Eric Stults has been a welcome edition to the pitching staff for the Dodgers. He has now made six starts and been excellent in most of them. Eric had to make the transition to the rotation and build arm strength and he has done that. Eric has thrown 30 innings this season and allowed just 28 hits while striking out 21. Coors field isn’t exactly what it use to be. Look for the Dodgers to win this game against another NL West foe.

LA Dodgers (+)

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

This line is just too good to pass up. You can’t ignore the splits on these two teams. The Cubs were able to win the game yesterday against the Astros but they lost another road series. For the season they are just 21-28 on the road. We all know how great their record is at Wrigley, but that doesn’t help them tonight out in the dessert.

The Diamondbacks on the other hand have struggled this season. They came out red hot and since then they just haven’t been able to get any steam together. Most of their troubles though have com eon the road. They are playing nine games under .500 on the road.

Randy can still shut down line-ups. His last home start was fantastic. Six innings plus pitched and he allowed just three hits and struck out ten batters. Randy has a winning record at home and will be able to get one tonight. The trip will be too tough for the Cubs tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+)
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VEGAS EXPERTS



Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
Monday, July 21st, 8:05 PM ET

Off a loss, you can't make the Houston Astros a large enough favorite against John Van Benschoten and Pittsburgh. The Pirates too are coming off a loss, five of them in fact, and Van Benschoten may be the worst starter in any rotation in baseball. In all three starts, he's failed to log more than four innings and his ERA is a pathetic 12.27. Pittsburgh has lost seven straight on the road.

Play on: Houston
 
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PRO INFO SPORTS

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: OVER 10

Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.

The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.

The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.

Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.

Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.

After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.

Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonight?s contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.

Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight?s contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonight?s game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.

The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10
 

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Anyone seen Nostradamus predicts picks? He went 0-5 Saturday then I couldn't find anything for Sunday.

I figured $200 for lifetime picks would get better results then 41-45-1.
 

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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Hot Pitchers
-- Campillo has 2.77 RA in four road starts. Volstad won 3-1 at LA in his first big league start (one run/8.1 IP/100 PT).
-- Harden has 1.54 RA in his last six starts.

-- Blackburn has 2.18 RA in his last three starts. Bronx is 3-0 in Ponson starts, scoring 29 runs.
-- Hurley is 2-0, 3.09 in his last couple starts.
-- Red Sox won seven of last eight Lester starts.
-- Angels won last three Santana starts (2-0, 3.43).

Cold Pitchers
-- Reds are 0-4 in Bailey starts (0-3, 8.50). Banks is 0-4, 5.40 in his last five starts.
-- Van Benschoten is 0-1, 13.09 in three starts. Hernandez is 0-3, 10.93 in three starts for the Astros.
-- McClung is 0-2, 5.14 in his last four starts. Pineiro has a 6.20 RA in his last four starts.
-- Wells' only '08 start was April 1, allowing one run in 5.1 IP. Stults is 0-2, 5.28 in his last three starts.
-- Johnson is 2-6, 7.38 in his last eight starts.

-- Liz has 9.95 RA in his last six starts. Toronto lost last three Litsch starts (0-2, 11.19).
-- Oakland lost four of last five Eveland road starts. Kazmir has a 6.19 RA in his last three starts (0-2, 6.19).
-- Vazquez has a 7.02 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Miner was 7-6, 4.84 in 16 starts in '06; he's tossed 44.2 innings in 32 games this year, all in relief (3-3, 4.23). Hochevar is 2-3 in his last five starts, with a 6.07 RA.
-- Indians are 1-10 when Byrd starts on the road.
-- Seattle is 2-5 at home when Washburn starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Reds are 9-5 in their last fourteen home games.
-- Astros won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won five of last six road games. Cardinals won last four games, scoring 37 runs.
-- Colorado won eight of its last nine home games. Dodgers won seven of their last nine road games.

-- Bronx won its last seven home games. Twins won five of last seven games.
-- Rays are 34-8 in their last 42 home games.
-- White Sox are 12-4 in their last sixteen home games.
-- Royals won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won six of their last seven games. Indians won six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Braves are 13-27 in their last 40 road games.
-- Padres lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Pirates lost twelve of their last fifteen road games.
-- Arizona is 3-6 in its last nine home games. Cubs are 5-11 in their last sixteen road games.

-- Oakland lost nine of last twelve road games.
-- Toronto lost six of its last eight road games. Orioles lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers lost five of last six road series openers.
-- Tigers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mariners are 3-8 in their last eleven games.
-- Red Sox lost ten of their last twelve road games.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Florida home games went over the total.
-- Last four San Diego games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Last five Cardinal games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.

-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine games in the Bronx.
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve games at Camden Yards.
-- Six of last eight Tampa home games went over total.
-- Last five White Sox games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Royal games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Cleveland's last nine road games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Boston's last five road games.
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TOM FREESE

Blue Line Club

7/21/08

Minnesota at New York (7:05pm)
Minnesota is red hot winning 21 of their last 28 games. They are 16-5 their last 22 games vs. righty starters and they are 11-3 after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. The Twins are 6-2 with Nick Blackburn on the mound vs. winning teams and he has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. New York is 2-7 their last 9 games when playing Game 1 of a series and they are 0-5 their last 5 Monday games. Starting pitcher Sidney Ponson has allowed 8 runs in his last 11 innings of work. PLAY ON MINNESOTA +
 

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Monday's MLB Research
IndianCowboy

Toronto vs. Baltimore

Litsh faces Liz here as Toronto hits the road off of a big win at Tampa Bay. Litsch lasted less than 3 innings against the Yankees in his last start, and before that, he gave up 6 runs in just over 5 innings, he is 1-5-2 over his last 8 starts and has struggled, do keep in mind though that the Bluejays struggle in scoring runs overall, Liz has had horrendous starts himself against Texas at home where he gave up 4 runs in less than 4 innings and at Boston where he gave up 8 runs in just over 2 innings. Liz has pitched in 7 straight overs and 9 of 10 overs, suprisingly though the public favors the under a bit more, despite Liz and Litsch both giving up their fair share of runs lately, one could expect them to bounce-back here, but I just don't see it - lean on the over here.

Minny vs. New York

I tell you what, I love watching the Twins play. They have the knack of coming back and winning ballgames which the old braves used to have and it is fun watching this team with their pitching, defense and timely hitting. Blackburn has pitched 3 straight quality starts, I don't beleive he's ever put together 4 straight quality starts, but he did pitch great at Detroit and at Boston, he also beat the Yankees earlier this year by holding them to just 1 run in a 5-1 victory, also cashing in as a +104 dog, Ponson, known as the proverbial ******* because of his crappy attitude towards others in the clubhouse, is 5-1 this year and has an ERA just under 4 remarkably. The public is backing the Yankees at a 2:1 clip here, Ponson has helped his team win their last 7 of 10 starts, and the Yankees to win their last 3, but he rarely puts together back to back wins, I actually lean on the kid here and the Twins as I just trust Blackburn more, even though the Yankees have a bit of revenge against him.

Oakland vs. Tampa Bay

I am tempted to take Oakland just on the pure dog price alone here hovering around +180 right now, granted, Tampa Bay does come off a beat down at home so they will likely be fired up in facing Eveland, keep in mind that Eveland pitched a complete game 3 hitter and gave up just 1 run when he faced TB at home last time so the Rays have revenge in that aspect as well, Eveland does come off a loss though and he has not put together back to back losses at least in his last 10 starts, and in fact, his team has not lost back to back ballgames when he has pitched all year:

7/12/2008 LAA S L 1-4 L 103
7/7/2008 SEA W 4-3 W -138
7/2/2008 @ LAA S ND 4-7 L 126
6/27/2008 SF W 4-1 W -166
6/21/2008 FLA ND 4-6 L -142
6/15/2008 @ SF W 5-3 W -118
6/10/2008 NYY L 1-3 L 112
6/3/2008 DET ND 5-4 W -115
5/29/2008 TOR L 0-12 L -123
5/21/2008 TB W 9-1 W -119

You should see a trend here, of a win, loss, win, loss, etc... That doesn't mean it carries today, it just means typically he shows up afte his team lost from his previous start. Kaz has lost back to back starts and he is looking to bounce-back after a tough loss at Cleveland and before that he lost to the Yankees despite pitching well. I actually lean on the A's here despite the Drays having revenge on young Eveland from that complete game he pitched against them back on may, a bit tempted at the A's +1.5 here as well.

Detroit vs. Kansas City

Miner makes his first start in quite some time for the Tigers tomorrow and it's on the road at KC, the public doesn't seem to mind though as they back him at 58%, he was 7-6 last year, Hochevar pitched great against Seatlte in his last start at home, but who doesn't, plus, he has a tendency to give up far too many hits despite being able to pick up some wins, this game could go either way, wouldn't be surprised to see an over as Hochevar comes off a great start, frankly a tossup game.

Texas vs. White Sox

Texas comes into this game with 51 wins, heck, just 3 less than the White Sox, Hurley has some great stats in that he gives up about a hit an inning, but overall has pitched very well for the Rangers this year, he beat Philly at home as a +113 underdog as the rangers won 5-1, he gave up 2 runs at Houston and 2 runs to Atlanta at home. Vasquez comes off a terrible start at KC, so he is on a bounce-back here, but there is no reason why he should be favored by this much, after all the Ranger offense is just as good, and the Hurley kid has pitched far better than Vasquez thus far, heck, the White sox have not faced Hurley this year as well so advanage Hurley, don't get me wrong, Vasquez is on a bounce-back here so one will be playing with fire a bit, and he has not lost back to back ballgames in over 10 games, if anything a lean on the rangers for pure value despite vasquez being on the bounce-back and a small lean on the under as well.

Cleveland vs. Angels

The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn't picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the indians run-line here, i'm not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.

Bostonvs. Seattle

Nearly 70% favor Boston here on the road off a loss, of course, I'm glad they lost considering I was on the Angels for my POD, Lester comes off a fortunate 6-5 win at home against Minny in his last start, but he is on for a bounce-back here, Wash had a great start against KC and picked up a no-decision besides pitching exceptionally well as the bullpen blew it for him late, he has pitched 7 of 9 quality starts of late and hasn't pitched a back to back over ballgame since May 25th. Heck, the guy had pitched in 7 straight unders before the last over at KC and that game truly shouldn't have gone over. I actually lean on the under here, as this should be a competitive pitching contest.
 
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*** EZ WINNERS MLB ***

2 STAR: (952) FLORIDA (-$113) over Atlanta
(Listing Volstad and Campillo)
(Risking $226 to win $200)
6:10PM Central Time

2 STAR: (958) ST. LOUIS (-$114) over Milwaukee
(Listing Pinero and McClung)
(Risking $228 to win $200)
6:05PM Central Time

2 STAR: (972) KANSAS CITY (-$107) over Detroit
(Listing Hochevar and Minor)
(Risking $214 to win $200)
7:10PM Central Time
 
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SAPKOWSKI 124-76

Premium
(65-38 L101, Yesterday 1-1 (MIN Twins"L",CHI Cubs"W")
MIN Twins
CHI Cubs

Free picks
(59-39 L98, 1-1 Yesterday (COL Rockies"W",CHI White Sox"L")
BAL Orioles over 10
PIT Pirates over 10
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Detroit / Kansas City Over 9.5

The Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record and Over is 5-1 in Miners last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Over is 10-4 in Royals last 14 games following a win and 7-1 in Royals last 8 during game 1 of a series. Zach Miner is making his first start for the Tigers this year and in his career as a starter he is just 7-7 with a 5.06. This year he has made 32 appearances from the pen and is 3-3 with a 4.23 ERA, plus he has a 19.31 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Royals. Luke Kochevar has been really struggling of late, posting a 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 5.59 ERA is his last 10 starts. The Detroit offense has come alive lately, hitting .288 and scoring 5.9 rpg in their last 10 games, with those 10 games averaging 10.9 rpg. Detroit also puts up 5.5 rpg and hits .287 at night. The Royals offense has also be good of late as they are averaging 5.7 rpg and hitting .270 over their last 10 games, plus they have put up 5.4 rpg in their last 18 at home. KC's home games this year have averaged just 8.8 rpg overall, but in their last 18 at home that number jumps to 10.6 rpg, while their last 35 games overall have averaged 10.1 rpg. The key here is the resurgent offenses of both squads and i see both teams easily being able to score 5 runs or more in this one, especially with the pitching that is on the mound. Should be an easy over in this one.
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">GAMBLERS WORLD

TIP OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

A winning streak will be on the line for the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday when they battle the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Righthander Seth McClung will take the mound for the Brewers to start this game. McClung is 4-4 this season with a 4.39 ERA.

It'll be Joel Pineiro toeing the rubber for the Cardinals in this contest. Righthander Pineiro is 3-4 with a 4.52 ERA so far this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Brewers, while the game's total is sitting at 9.

The Brewers defeated San Francisco 7-4 as a +125 underdog on Sunday. The 11 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (7.5).

Ryan Braun homered and had five RBI for Milwaukee, while Manny Parra allowed two runs on seven hits, while striking out nine in seven 2-3 innings.

The Cardinals defeated San Diego 9-5 as a -130 favorite on Sunday. The 14 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9.5).

Aaron Miles hit a walk-off grand slam home run in the bottom of the ninth inning for St. Louis, while Troy Glaus hit a three-run home run in the win
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frank Rosenthal

952 Fish-115 Sb
Over 9 Sb
954 Reds Over 9.5 Sb
957 Brewers+110 Sb
961 Cubs Under 8 Sb+
964 Yanks-125 Sb
Under 9.5 Sb
969 Tex Over 9.5 Sb+
 

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Larry Ness' 15* Situational Game of the Week (32-15 MLB run since June 30)

Larry went 25-12 with his MLB plays the L2 weeks before the All Star break. When play resumed on Thursday, he continued his winning ways by going 7-3 the L4 days (now 32-15 s/June 30), including a perfect 3-0 with GOW plays (two-year regular season run with GOW plays is now 172-86!). The winning continues tonight. Any takers?

15* Boston Red Soxs
 

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