Dave Essler - MLB Notes
Cubs-Reds: Don't like PM Cubs games. Chilly and wind blowing in, so we'll see where they set that total. Both pens been awful, and Chapman about ready to return, and with Simon a relief pitcher for the most part, I can see taking the Cubs at +100 (that should tell you something right there) and perhaps the over, which may be a little low BECAUSE of the wind.
Washington-St. Louis: Awful for me to think Washington would hit last night, although is was more a case of Washington's pitchers simply walking the ballpark and committing tons of errors. As I said on the podcast the other night, those things tend to be cyclical, so it's tough even to take Gio here. He was lit by the Braves, and the Nationals pen is somewhat depleted. I could make a reasonable argument for the under here, since he's done well against STL in the past.
Milwaukee-Pittsburgh: Lohse obviously was a beast last time out, and the motivation is clearly with the Pirates after being swept in Milwuakee last week. My issue with Pittsburgh lately is they are the second coming of Atlanta, scoring mainly vie the long ball. Morton being the ground ball pitcher that he is, I would argue Pirates and under.
Mets-Braves: Because the Braves are so cheap, especially with Harang in beastmode, I'd be concerned here. Mets had a day off and the Braves had an emotional three game series w/the Phillies, including a rain out. The Mets may just win this one here.
Colorado-Philadelphia: Obvious travel issue for the Phillies, who's bats have gone quiet. I am not a huge fan of Chatwood yet, because he's not a ground ball pitcher, and not in Coors Field. However, the Rockies have seen Pettibone and the weather IS conducive to hitting, so this may be the over, but I would much prefer 10 to 10.5 so we'll wait that one out. Perhaps this COULD be one of the few times I lay the -1.5.
Padres-Giants: I don't get the flip to the Padres being the listed favorite overnight, but I haven't looked deep yet. I am not a big fan of Ross, but I have long felt Cain is over rated as well, and the Padres have seen plenty of him. The Padres bats have gone quiet, and IMO if they are going to win as the early move might suggest, I would think it stays under.
Dodgers-D-Backs: As I said on the podcast, most big dogs get scalped and this is certainly no exception since Arizona had been. Since Arizona was swept by the Dodgers and then the Mets, they may be thinking that because AS just saw Zach that they make some adjustments. Here's what I think. Two of the best hitting pitchers in baseball may mean this goes over. If it goes to 6.5 I may well take my chances, but if it did I doubt it would stay there long.
Angels-Tigers: Two teams I always seem to struggle to grasp, and obvious over reaction to the Tigers bats being woken up yesterday here. My first instinct is that although I am not a huge Weaver fan, all things being equal, to get the potential of the Angels and Weaver at that price you almost have to. I do know they've struggled against LHP, but it's Drew Smyly, not Denny McLain. Both pens suck (usually) and the weather isn't THAT bad, so if that total dropped to 7.5 there's the option of the over as well.
Toronto-Cleveland: Big love for Masterson but he's not been himself this year, and that's in part due to the DH the Jays plays and lost both (thank you) yesterday. I am simply not laying the "new" price on Cleveland, and not sure I could take Toronto either. That total has plummeted all the way to 7.5 in places, and that may be an over reaction a bit. If that IS the case and the line keeps moving, I could see taking the Toronto RL, but they've got no pen left (thank you again) either.
Yankees-Rays: Automatic to think about taking the under in any Tampa Bay home game. But, I don't trust either pitcher. One is going on 100 and the other couldn't stick with the Astros. Have to think NYY has the momentum after beating the sh*t out of Price last night, and the Rays seem to be in free fall. I would hate to start fading the Rays "streak" too late, but would almost have to take NYY here.
Baltimore-Boston: Always tough to take a team in the first game back (Boston) but it is Tillman and the always unpredictable John Lackey. Since we like the Orioles much better against right handed pitching and they're on a bit of a winning streak, I can see backing the Birds here.
White Sox-Texas: So, Texas starts hitting for two games and the White Sox stop hitting for two game and all of a sudden Perez is a -160 pitcher. Not a chance. Give me the White Sox RL and be done with it, even with Chicago playing last night and traveling. However, I do think they're are far better games. And if that total really is going to stay at 10, perhaps Texas is going to hit. Hate this game.
Twins-Royals: Those that know me know I would find a way to back the Twins here. Even after the DH, they are playing well, and that may over ride anything else. Royals in a first game back and did not exactly light up the scoreboard in Houston. I can see this one staying under 8.5 in the bigger park, and if that is the case perhaps the Twins RL, again. Might find something here.
Oakland-Houston: I totally get how good Sonny Gray is and late last year he made us money. And I totally get how Houston isn't hitting. But, at -200 that's a stretch, especially in what is projected as a low scoring game and in perhaps the biggest park with the most foul territory in the world. I can make a reasonable case for this staying under, because I do like Cosart.
Miami-Seattle: Don't forget that the Mariners don't get to use the DH in this park. Eovaldi CAN be good, but he CAN be awful, and I do like the Mariners better against RHP and they've probably got the better bullpen. I don't like Young and this game has already flipped from about a coin-toss to heavy Miami. They aren't usually THAT easy, but they can be. This game, as do most IL games, needs more attention than I can give it right now.