Joe Gavazzi MLB
Friday, April 18, 2014
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) (Morton) 7:05 ET
3% Pittsburgh (-115)
It aint no fun when the rabbit got the gun! After dominating the Pirates for several seasons, Milwaukee spent much of the 2013 season looking up at Pittsburgh in the standings. This year, however, the hunter has become the hunted. Milwaukee is off to an 11-5 start, including 6-1 on the road. This includes a 3-0 sweep of the Pirates last week in Milwaukee, when the Bucs could muster just 5 total runs. Trailing Milwaukee by 4 games at the start of this weekend’s series, the Buc bats boomed in the role of hunter. In Thursday’s 11-2 victory, Pittsburgh smacked 4 HR to boost their league leading total to 23 for the season. Revenge continues today in a pitching matchup that saw Morton lose a 4-1 decision to Lohse last week in Milwaukee. Not that Morton pitched poorly, allowing 2 ER in 7 IP. Lohse, however, was outstanding allowing just 4 hits with a 9/0 KBB in working 8 2/3 IP of that victory. In so doing, it improved the record of Lohse for the year to 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA. Replicating that result would be tough for Lohse, whose lifetime numbers rarely have included an outing such as that. Far prefer Morton, whose sinker ball has worked to near perfection when pitching at PNC Park of late. In fact, in his most recent 6 home starts, Morton has a 1.82 ERA. Pittsburgh and Morton get their revenge.
Philadelphia Phillies (Pettibone) at Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) (-145) 8:40 ET
3% Colorado (-145)
In recent years, the Phillies were among the premier teams in the NL. They dominated the Rockies with a 30-9 series record. That figures to change this season, especially on this field, as the Phillies struggle to reach the breakeven point. In the lone start for Pettibone this season, he faced a cold hitting Miami team, allowing 8 hits and 2 runs in 5 IP in a no-decision. Now, however, he must take his act on the road, more specifically at a site where he did not succeed. In 2013, Pettibone had a 5.59 road ERA. He lasted just 3 IP of his lone start from this mound, allowing 6 ER and 10 hits. The Rockies return home from a road trip which ended with a 2-2 series split at San Diego, but resulted in a 4-7 road record for the year. This is a team groomed for the offensive capabilities of their home park. True to form, Colorado is 4-2 at Coors this season, averaging 7.5 runs with a .354 BA. Chatwood had a decent outing against San Fran, working 6 IP allowing 4 runs on 6 hits with a promising 5/0 KBB. In a pair of starts vs. the Phillies, Chatwood has a 3.60 ERA. Must favor the Rockies at home against the visiting pitcher who will have little confidence from this mound.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Miley) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R +125) 10:10 ET
5% LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R +125)
Must continue to fade Arizona with their 4-14 record and 6 game losing streak. Those defeats all came at home in games where they were outscored 43-16, losing 5/6 by 3 or more runs. Miley does not appear to be the answer. For the season, Miley is 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA. In a pair of starts against LAD, Miley is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA. The Dodgers have won all 5 meetings vs. Arizona this season, outscoring them 32-17 with every victory by 2 or more runs. Greinke has been outstanding again this season, winning all 3 starts with a 2.76 ERA. His 4 most recent starts against Arizona have resulted in a record of 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA. Run line players take note, 13/14 Arizona losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. Last year, 71/95 LAD victories were by 2 or more runs. This year, 7/10 Dodger wins have come by 2 or more runs. Play the run line in this pitching mismatch against a flailing Arizona team.
NY Yankees (Kuroda) at Tampa Bay Rays (-110) (Bedard) 7:10 ET
4% NYY (EVEN)
We will follow team momentum in a pitching mismatch. The Yankees enter on a 5 game win streak, moving to 10-6 for the season. The Rays have lost 4 straight and have scored only 16 runs in going 3-7 in their last 10. If the bats don’t produce, as was the case in last night’s 10-2 loss to NYY, it is doubtful that TBay staff can plug the dyke. Three starting pitchers from the TBay rotation are now injured. Ergo, the recall of retread Bedard from AAA for this start! This journeyman has pitched for 5 different teams in the last 4 years. In his previous 2 seasons with Houston and Pittsburgh, Bedard worked 273 2/3 IP in 50 starts, rarely making it out of the 5th inning. In those 2 years, he has a 1.48 WHIP and 4.80 ERA. Expect little! Kuroda has been solid this season, working 18 2/3 IP with a 14/4 KBB. The only thing reducing this rating is a poor history vs. the Rays, in which he has a 7.36 ERA in 5 starts.
Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) at Kansas City Royals (Vargas) (-135) 8:10
3% Kansas City (-135)
Not buying the Minnesota revival which sees the Twins enter on a 5-1 streak, including a DH sweep of Toronto last night by a combined score of 16-5. Now, the Twins must travel on the heels of a 12 hour day. Nor am I buying the recent start of Nolasco in which he worked 8 IP, allowing 1 run on 5 hits of a 7-1 victory. More telling are his year-to-date numbers in which he has posted a 5.50 ERA, allowing 29 BR in 18 IP. Last year, the Royals took 15/19 from Minnesota in their season series. Last weekend, however, the Twins shocked the Royals with a 3-0 sweep, outscoring them 21-5. Since that time, KC went on to sweep Houston (3-0) outscoring the Astros 15-7. Now, they return home for a measure of revenge. Note that in the previous 5 games, the KC starters have recorded a 1.80 ERA. Expect Vargas to extract revenge after working 7 IP and allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Twins. Vargas has worked 7 or more innings in each of 3 starts with a 1.64 ERA. KC gets revenge in the 1st of three games this weekend.
Houston Astros (Cosart) at Oakland A’s (Gray) (-1 ½ R, EVEN) 10:00 ET
3% Oakland (-1 ½ R, EVEN)
The only thing keeping this from Top Play status is that Cosart has a decent 4.00 ERA and has allowed just 2 runs in 13 IP vs. Oakland. Though the Astros have plenty of talent in the farm system, it does not figure to translate into victories this season. Houston enters on a 4 game losing streak, scoring just 7 times with a .185 BA. Simply cannot expect that to improve much against the sterling slants of the Oakland rotation. Last year, Oakland won 15/19 from Houston with a 2.84 ERA and 2.77 BA. Gray has been outstanding in a trio of starts with a 0.95 ERA, posting 19 Ks in 19 IP. Gray has been virtually unhittable from this mound, where in 8 starts, Gray has a 1.71 ERA. This year, 9/11 Houston losses have come by 2 or more runs. A continuation of the trend that saw 75/111 Houston defeats last year by 2 or more runs.
