well looking like that might be all she wrote for the markets in general for that dead cat bounce.....and looks like oil and gold bottoming right at point markets give up the ghost....the can blame the near term market noise on commodities when the longer term trend is starting to point down for commodities IMO due to global economy in trouble while continuing for equities overall
chinese consumers still consuming like big dogs....
some good news for commodity bulls
we'll see what happens once the longer term trend of rest of the world consuming less of their garbage eats away at their wage increases etc....who knows maybe they can suck up most of the capacity and grow from within.....i kinda doubt it though
i mean i doubt they will go negative on consumption but will slow down from this crazy shit most likely
plus we'll see where the numbers go after olympics....i'm sure buying alot of olympic related goods right now...once in a lifetime opportunity for that country......
------------------------------------------
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales expanded at the fastest pace in at least nine years in July as incomes and prices climbed in the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Sales rose 23.3 percent to 862.9 billion yuan ($126 billion) after gaining 23 percent in June, the statistics bureau said today. That was more than the 22.4 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The acceleration and a surge in exports last month underscore the strength of China's economy as Japan stands on the brink of a recession and global growth cools. Household electronics sales climbed 18.8 percent, almost twice June's pace, as families bought televisions for the Olympic Games.
''The recent rush of suggestions that China's economy is in trouble must be looking rather shaky,'' said Mark Williams, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd.
The yuan strengthened to 6.8581 against the dollar as of 3:26 p.m. in Shanghai after closing at 6.8632 yesterday. Most Chinese stocks rose as the CSI 300 Index gained 0.52 points to close at 2,444.67.
The retail numbers aren't adjusted for inflation, which cooled to 6.3 percent last month after reaching a 12-year high in February.
Today's data comes two days after figures showing exports climbed 26.9 percent in July, accelerating from 17.2 percent in June, easing concerns that overseas shipments would plummet as the global economy cooled. Japan's economy contracted in the second quarter as exports fell, a report showed today.
Climbing Incomes
Urban disposable incomes increased 14.4 percent in the first half, or 6.3 percent after stripping out inflation. China aims to increase consumption to reduce dependence on investment and overseas sales for economic growth.
''Domestic consumption is likely to be the most stable growth engine for the economy for the rest of the year,'' said Michael Dai, senior economist at Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. ''I'd be more worried about the trade sector.''
TCL Corp., China's biggest maker of consumer electronics, said yesterday that its sales of liquid-crystal display televisions rose more than 400 percent in July to 420,659 from 78,447 a year earlier.
China's sales growth may slow in the fourth quarter as the ''Olympic effect'' fades, said Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody's Economy.com in Sydney.
Emergency Plans
This quarter, the government has eased bank lending quotas, raised tax rebates on exports of garments and textiles and halted gains by the yuan against the dollar, shifting emphasis to protecting jobs from fighting inflation.
The nation needs emergency plans for boosting investment to sustain economic growth, should export demand suddenly collapse, the State Information Center, a government research agency, said in a report published today.
A June increase in state-controlled fuel prices encouraged refiners to boost supplies, helping to drive a 55 percent gain last month in sales of petroleum products from a year earlier, said Xing Ziqiang, a Beijing-based economist at China International Capital Corp.
Growth in automobile sales cooled to 28 percent in July from 33 percent in June.
While economic growth has slowed for four straight quarters, the 10.1 percent expansion in the three months through June was still the fastest of the world's 20 biggest economies. Gross domestic product growth below 9 percent would be ''unacceptable'' for a government targeting 10 million new jobs a year, according to a Credit Suisse Group report this month.
China's biggest retail-sales gain since Bloomberg data began in 1999 came even as inflation played a smaller role in raising the figures. The cost of food, especially pork, a staple of the Chinese diet, increased more slowly in July than the previous month. June's overall inflation was 7.1 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Paul Panckhurst in Beijing at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net; Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 13, 2008 04:02 EDT
some good news for commodity bulls
we'll see what happens once the longer term trend of rest of the world consuming less of their garbage eats away at their wage increases etc....who knows maybe they can suck up most of the capacity and grow from within.....i kinda doubt it though
i mean i doubt they will go negative on consumption but will slow down from this crazy shit most likely
plus we'll see where the numbers go after olympics....i'm sure buying alot of olympic related goods right now...once in a lifetime opportunity for that country......
------------------------------------------
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales expanded at the fastest pace in at least nine years in July as incomes and prices climbed in the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Sales rose 23.3 percent to 862.9 billion yuan ($126 billion) after gaining 23 percent in June, the statistics bureau said today. That was more than the 22.4 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The acceleration and a surge in exports last month underscore the strength of China's economy as Japan stands on the brink of a recession and global growth cools. Household electronics sales climbed 18.8 percent, almost twice June's pace, as families bought televisions for the Olympic Games.
''The recent rush of suggestions that China's economy is in trouble must be looking rather shaky,'' said Mark Williams, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd.
The yuan strengthened to 6.8581 against the dollar as of 3:26 p.m. in Shanghai after closing at 6.8632 yesterday. Most Chinese stocks rose as the CSI 300 Index gained 0.52 points to close at 2,444.67.
The retail numbers aren't adjusted for inflation, which cooled to 6.3 percent last month after reaching a 12-year high in February.
Today's data comes two days after figures showing exports climbed 26.9 percent in July, accelerating from 17.2 percent in June, easing concerns that overseas shipments would plummet as the global economy cooled. Japan's economy contracted in the second quarter as exports fell, a report showed today.
Climbing Incomes
Urban disposable incomes increased 14.4 percent in the first half, or 6.3 percent after stripping out inflation. China aims to increase consumption to reduce dependence on investment and overseas sales for economic growth.
''Domestic consumption is likely to be the most stable growth engine for the economy for the rest of the year,'' said Michael Dai, senior economist at Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. ''I'd be more worried about the trade sector.''
TCL Corp., China's biggest maker of consumer electronics, said yesterday that its sales of liquid-crystal display televisions rose more than 400 percent in July to 420,659 from 78,447 a year earlier.
China's sales growth may slow in the fourth quarter as the ''Olympic effect'' fades, said Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody's Economy.com in Sydney.
Emergency Plans
This quarter, the government has eased bank lending quotas, raised tax rebates on exports of garments and textiles and halted gains by the yuan against the dollar, shifting emphasis to protecting jobs from fighting inflation.
The nation needs emergency plans for boosting investment to sustain economic growth, should export demand suddenly collapse, the State Information Center, a government research agency, said in a report published today.
A June increase in state-controlled fuel prices encouraged refiners to boost supplies, helping to drive a 55 percent gain last month in sales of petroleum products from a year earlier, said Xing Ziqiang, a Beijing-based economist at China International Capital Corp.
Growth in automobile sales cooled to 28 percent in July from 33 percent in June.
While economic growth has slowed for four straight quarters, the 10.1 percent expansion in the three months through June was still the fastest of the world's 20 biggest economies. Gross domestic product growth below 9 percent would be ''unacceptable'' for a government targeting 10 million new jobs a year, according to a Credit Suisse Group report this month.
China's biggest retail-sales gain since Bloomberg data began in 1999 came even as inflation played a smaller role in raising the figures. The cost of food, especially pork, a staple of the Chinese diet, increased more slowly in July than the previous month. June's overall inflation was 7.1 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Paul Panckhurst in Beijing at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net; Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 13, 2008 04:02 EDT
140 seems conservative my target 160ish
keeping eye on old vix once the bear leg finally starts if this is indeed the start of it looking for vix in the 30s at which point time to start thinking about covering some stuff and possibly playing the next dead cat bounce
keeping eye on old vix once the bear leg finally starts if this is indeed the start of it looking for vix in the 30s at which point time to start thinking about covering some stuff and possibly playing the next dead cat bounce
who knows my timing could be all mucked up to hold out a possibility this could turn into the march to may rally taking us to 200 DMA SPX 1370 or so......before the plundge in october or something
either way chances of the july bottom being the long term bottom almost 0 in my mind
just a matter of when the next bear move starts
either way chances of the july bottom being the long term bottom almost 0 in my mind
just a matter of when the next bear move starts
if they can keep hiding all the banks mess and keep the bank failures and such to a minimum i suppose i can see um holding down the fort till elections
at some point the banks gonna have to fess up and the fact remains the housing market ain't coming back anytime soon to save them
well see what bank fail friday brings us VNBC at the top of the list now under 1
at some point the banks gonna have to fess up and the fact remains the housing market ain't coming back anytime soon to save them
well see what bank fail friday brings us VNBC at the top of the list now under 1
nasdaq up against its 200 DMA here poking its nose out....and around its downtrend line since october.....
nother reason i think this rally may be running on fumes
hard to see tech rallying in a big way at current valuations
still think this all setting up for a plundge similiar to the dec-jan period.....and tech's got mauled during that time as well
nother reason i think this rally may be running on fumes
hard to see tech rallying in a big way at current valuations
still think this all setting up for a plundge similiar to the dec-jan period.....and tech's got mauled during that time as well
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HGU.TO
probably something gold/commodity related up 10% on the day
mfn having a good day
QL you can buy GLD if you just want your money to follow the price of physical...vs. buying a beat down miner
The $ is strengthening amazingly quickly.
2.5 cents better today against the £, which is a ridiculous one day move.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/default.stm
When Ronnie Reagan popped onto the scene in 1981 gold went
up from its high, the $ went waaaay down to one for one with the £ and the stock market had a party until that 1987 crash thingy.
The other 1981-86 ingredients were a recession and mass redundancies.
:grandmais
There's some weird chit going on the noo.
2.5 cents better today against the £, which is a ridiculous one day move.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/default.stm
When Ronnie Reagan popped onto the scene in 1981 gold went
up from its high, the $ went waaaay down to one for one with the £ and the stock market had a party until that 1987 crash thingy.The other 1981-86 ingredients were a recession and mass redundancies.
:grandmais
There's some weird chit going on the noo.
deflation doesn't necessarily mean bad for gold eekster
y noticed that today USD up with oil and gold
we'll see how it all turns out over the next year or so
my guess
US equity markets down
USD (quote vs. other fiat losing value over the long haul) flat to up
gold/silver flat to up
the consumed not shoved under your pillow cause banks might go up commodities flat to down
:grandmais
y noticed that today USD up with oil and gold
we'll see how it all turns out over the next year or so
my guess
US equity markets down
USD (quote vs. other fiat losing value over the long haul) flat to up
gold/silver flat to up
the consumed not shoved under your pillow cause banks might go
up commodities flat to down:grandmais
