Something smells fishy....ship Daddy those coins
Just got off the phone with Apmex......they don't have any silver bags available contrary to their website (WTF?) - they're saying "soon" ...interesting
also, K-Rands are at an unheard of $19.95 premium over spot. Just last month when gold was at $980 the premium was $8.95.
guy told me "the supply just isn't out there, especially silver. We're long ourselves"
chickened out and "only" bought five K-Rands
Just got off the phone with Apmex......they don't have any silver bags available contrary to their website (WTF?) - they're saying "soon" ...interesting
also, K-Rands are at an unheard of $19.95 premium over spot. Just last month when gold was at $980 the premium was $8.95.
guy told me "the supply just isn't out there, especially silver. We're long ourselves"
chickened out and "only" bought five K-Rands
If I had the funds available, Id love to start looking around for something to buy among the stocks I already own that have been hammered.
Since pm moving lower is costing me money, honestly I dont watch every tick on these heavy downward moves.
Most of my pm positions have been in the soup for nearly a year, anyway.
Unfortunately, I need a bankroll for football this fall, so my hands are tied regarding buying any stocks now.
Cheapseats, Im extending the olive branch as I have no reason to continue going back and forth with you about that. Id rather spend time reading your posts about real estate. I made money owning several fertilizer stocks and needed the money at that time for other things. So, I got lucky with the sell decision I saw resulting from the herd piling into that sector.
Ive been out of that sector for months now, so unless I buy again, what fertilizer stocks do going forward isnt important to me. Good luck if you do anything with them.
Jdog, this place is like a good dive bar...can leave for a while, but eventually we all stagger back in the door.
:drink:
i don't doubt it'll bounce soon jdog
plus like i said many times think gold might hold its own in deflationary environment....right now i'm a little on edge with that theory now that its starting to plundge big time.....but might just be confusing the inflationists near term....
in the 30s people ran to the gold fields when shit hit the fan and government confiscated gold
as for the other commodities they were trash
we'll see if a disconnect plays out in the long term...if indeed deflation is coming....
plus like i said many times think gold might hold its own in deflationary environment....right now i'm a little on edge with that theory now that its starting to plundge big time.....but might just be confusing the inflationists near term....
in the 30s people ran to the gold fields when shit hit the fan and government confiscated gold
as for the other commodities they were trash
we'll see if a disconnect plays out in the long term...if indeed deflation is coming....
Spain's banks could be next in line to feel the global financial crunch the WSJ reports. They say that with a housing bust taking a toll on Spanish builders, homeowners and the broadre economy, the outlook is dimming particularly for Spains system of local savings banks which generate roughly half of the country's lending and deposit taking.
Market News International.
Market News International.
y remember reading about the spain housing bubble and how huge it was year or so back
guess the chickens finally coming to roost
there's a worldwide housing bubble out there subprime in US (the bulk of the losses related to that to date) just the tip of the iceburg
alt-A, and prime in the US much bigger deal than subprime as far as total market goes
guess the chickens finally coming to roost
there's a worldwide housing bubble out there subprime in US (the bulk of the losses related to that to date) just the tip of the iceburg
alt-A, and prime in the US much bigger deal than subprime as far as total market goes
yes. They will be booking profits soon. There is a reason why JPM and GS makes money quarter after quarter.
honestly, where it goes from there it doesn't matter, because I know where it is going in the future, always nice to buy at the bottom but near impossible
What is shocking is the juniors. I can tell you for certain that some very sharp players are buying, and they are chasing a falling knife too. All that liquidity is being used against us right now, and you have to give the shorts props.
But at these levels one is looking at 40% gains by year end. I think I put the floor in today in MFN at $7.59, unfortunately on large margin, and also looking at what is happening at in HK unsettling, but 52 week low
y here's a blast from the past
just hard to call when the bubble bursts
the reason it could turn into depression is because this type of thing going on all over the world
and there is hardly anybody in the global market to pick up the slack...aka buy up cheap deflating assets as everybody already trapped....
-----------------------------
Boomtime Spain waits for the bubble to burst
Financial Times ^ | June 8 2006 | Leslie Crawford
Posted on Friday, June 09, 2006 8:43:48 AM by economist-student
As the European Central Bank's policymakers gather in Madrid today to consider another rise in interest rates, they will also get a chance to experience first hand the enduring paradox that is Spain's buoyant economy.
The bankers will fly over a sea of construction cranes before landing at the brand new, Richard Rogers-designed terminal at Barajas airport. A waiting fleet of limousines will take them past new suburbs that have sprung up during Spain's unprecedented building boom.
More than 400,000 homes have been built in and around Madrid in the past five years, in part to accommodate 1m immigrants who have settled in the capital.
The traffic above ground will be slow and ill-tempered. Thanks to plentiful consumer credit at negative real interest rates, there are 3m more cars on the road than five years ago.
"There are two factors sustaining Spain's economic growth," says José Luis Feito, a Spanish economist. "The first is low euro interest rates, which have been lower than Spanish inflation since 2002. The second is immigration, which has moderated wage growth while increasing demand for all kinds of goods and services including housing."
The Spanish economy is in its 11th year of uninterrupted growth, making it a rare bright spot within an otherwise sluggish eurozone. Spain expanded by an annualised 3.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2006, compared with the eurozone average of 1.9 per cent.
Signs of overheating have been evident for some time. House prices have risen by 150 per cent since 1998, even though the housing stock has doubled over the same period. (Spain consumes half of all the cement in the European Union.) The country's inflation rate of 4 per cent is the highest in the 12-nation eurozone, leading to a dramatic loss of competitiveness against its main trading partners. The €67bn ($86bn, £46bn) current account deficit is the second biggest in the world after the US in absolute terms, and the world's largest in relative terms, at 7.4 per cent of gross domestic product.
For some time now, economists have warned that growth based on a property bubble and a consumer spending spree - both fuelled by cheap credit - cannot last. Concern deepened when family indebtedness reached a record 115 per cent of disposable income at the end of last year, according to the Bank of Spain.
"The foundations of economic growth are now extremely fragile," says Rafael Pampillón, head of the economics department at the Instituto de Empresa business school in Madrid. "A rise in interest rates, higher unemployment, a drop in demand for new homes, fewer tourists - any of these factors could pierce the property bubble."
Mr Feito says a rise of two percentage points in euro interest rates, to 4.5 per cent, would be enough to tip Spain into recession.
Antoni Espasa, an economics professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, says Spain has only a narrow window of opportunity to defuse the "time bomb" of chronic high inflation and declining competitiveness.
"We need more deregulation in all sectors of the economy," he says. "We need more investment in research and development."
But it is difficult to push through change in times of bonanza. "There is a lot of complacency in business and government," says Mr Pampillón. Record tax and social security receipts have encouraged the Socialist government to increase spending, excluding debt servicing, by almost 7 per cent this year. This, says Mr Pampillón, is contributing to inflationary pressures. "The government could help engineer a soft landing by adopting an austere budget, but this is unlikely as 2007 and 2008 are election years," he says.
Spanish economists are reluctant to predict if or when a crash will come. The consensus is that Spain has, at most, two more years of strong growth before latent problems come to the fore.
"The Spanish economy is living on borrowed time," says Emilio Ontiveros, a professor of business economics at the Autonomous University of Madrid. Banks continue to extend credit - 40-year mortgages are now available as house prices have climbed beyond the reach of most first-time buyers - and Spaniards are sinking deeper into debt. The only factors delaying a crash are low interest rates and the demand created by 4m immigrants, who have brought about a 10 per cent increase in Spain's population in the past six years.
Mr Ontiveros, who predicts consumer spending will slow down this year, sees the chance of a soft landing if Spanish exports recover and replace some of the activity of a cooling construction sector.
"We need a better economic mix to achieve sustainable growth," he says. "At the moment what we have is a monoculture based on bricks and mortar alone."
just hard to call when the bubble bursts
the reason it could turn into depression is because this type of thing going on all over the world
and there is hardly anybody in the global market to pick up the slack...aka buy up cheap deflating assets as everybody already trapped....
-----------------------------
Boomtime Spain waits for the bubble to burst
Financial Times ^ | June 8 2006 | Leslie Crawford
Posted on Friday, June 09, 2006 8:43:48 AM by economist-student
As the European Central Bank's policymakers gather in Madrid today to consider another rise in interest rates, they will also get a chance to experience first hand the enduring paradox that is Spain's buoyant economy.
The bankers will fly over a sea of construction cranes before landing at the brand new, Richard Rogers-designed terminal at Barajas airport. A waiting fleet of limousines will take them past new suburbs that have sprung up during Spain's unprecedented building boom.
More than 400,000 homes have been built in and around Madrid in the past five years, in part to accommodate 1m immigrants who have settled in the capital.
The traffic above ground will be slow and ill-tempered. Thanks to plentiful consumer credit at negative real interest rates, there are 3m more cars on the road than five years ago.
"There are two factors sustaining Spain's economic growth," says José Luis Feito, a Spanish economist. "The first is low euro interest rates, which have been lower than Spanish inflation since 2002. The second is immigration, which has moderated wage growth while increasing demand for all kinds of goods and services including housing."
The Spanish economy is in its 11th year of uninterrupted growth, making it a rare bright spot within an otherwise sluggish eurozone. Spain expanded by an annualised 3.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2006, compared with the eurozone average of 1.9 per cent.
Signs of overheating have been evident for some time. House prices have risen by 150 per cent since 1998, even though the housing stock has doubled over the same period. (Spain consumes half of all the cement in the European Union.) The country's inflation rate of 4 per cent is the highest in the 12-nation eurozone, leading to a dramatic loss of competitiveness against its main trading partners. The €67bn ($86bn, £46bn) current account deficit is the second biggest in the world after the US in absolute terms, and the world's largest in relative terms, at 7.4 per cent of gross domestic product.
For some time now, economists have warned that growth based on a property bubble and a consumer spending spree - both fuelled by cheap credit - cannot last. Concern deepened when family indebtedness reached a record 115 per cent of disposable income at the end of last year, according to the Bank of Spain.
"The foundations of economic growth are now extremely fragile," says Rafael Pampillón, head of the economics department at the Instituto de Empresa business school in Madrid. "A rise in interest rates, higher unemployment, a drop in demand for new homes, fewer tourists - any of these factors could pierce the property bubble."
Mr Feito says a rise of two percentage points in euro interest rates, to 4.5 per cent, would be enough to tip Spain into recession.
Antoni Espasa, an economics professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, says Spain has only a narrow window of opportunity to defuse the "time bomb" of chronic high inflation and declining competitiveness.
"We need more deregulation in all sectors of the economy," he says. "We need more investment in research and development."
But it is difficult to push through change in times of bonanza. "There is a lot of complacency in business and government," says Mr Pampillón. Record tax and social security receipts have encouraged the Socialist government to increase spending, excluding debt servicing, by almost 7 per cent this year. This, says Mr Pampillón, is contributing to inflationary pressures. "The government could help engineer a soft landing by adopting an austere budget, but this is unlikely as 2007 and 2008 are election years," he says.
Spanish economists are reluctant to predict if or when a crash will come. The consensus is that Spain has, at most, two more years of strong growth before latent problems come to the fore.
"The Spanish economy is living on borrowed time," says Emilio Ontiveros, a professor of business economics at the Autonomous University of Madrid. Banks continue to extend credit - 40-year mortgages are now available as house prices have climbed beyond the reach of most first-time buyers - and Spaniards are sinking deeper into debt. The only factors delaying a crash are low interest rates and the demand created by 4m immigrants, who have brought about a 10 per cent increase in Spain's population in the past six years.
Mr Ontiveros, who predicts consumer spending will slow down this year, sees the chance of a soft landing if Spanish exports recover and replace some of the activity of a cooling construction sector.
"We need a better economic mix to achieve sustainable growth," he says. "At the moment what we have is a monoculture based on bricks and mortar alone."
juniors have the liquidity issues to deal with....cash getting more expensive to get your hands on these days to drill and explore......and those issues signaling to me gold not gonna stay this high with 5+ year outlook....who knows maybe they having a humongous shakedown
i know many beaten to a pulp but would rather take a beaten down MFN that will be producing soon
UK housing bubble at beginning stages of going 
up too
:grandmais
also when thinking about commodities one must remember all the commodities that go into building homes, commercial real estate....you name it
big demand loss (or at minimum the demand rate slows from its previous crazy pace) worldwide once the boom ends
i'm not a long term commodity bear.....obviously we got too many people and too few resources on a global scale.....but this shit coming has to be bad for commodities near term.....
------------------------------
U.K. July House Prices Drop as Loan Squeeze Locks Out Buyers
By Jennifer Ryan
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in July as the squeeze on credit locked out buyers and brought the property market to a ``virtual standstill,'' the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.
The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices dropped exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9 percentage points, the group said today in London. The reading was 94.7 percentage points in April, the most since the series began in 1978.
U.K. banks approved the fewest mortgages since at least 1999 in June and data yesterday showed that they haven't passed on most of the Bank of England's interest-rate cuts since December. The housing-market slump risks pushing the country into a recession that policy makers can do little to prevent as they combat inflation, which probably reached an 11-year high in July.
``The lack of mortgage finance has brought the housing market to a virtual standstill, with first-time buyers rapidly becoming an endangered species,'' Ian Perry, a spokesman for RICS, said in a statement.
All 11 regions tracked by RICS showed negative price balances on the month, led by the West Midlands, with a reading of minus 93. In London, the balance of prices measured was at minus 72, compared with minus 78 in June.
House prices fell the most in at least a quarter-century from a year earlier in July, according to HBOS Plc. Banks have curbed lending as they nurse losses and writedowns from the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapse totaling almost $500 billion worldwide.
Price `Fear'
``Falling prices and the fear of further reductions yet to come have caused both buyers and the lending institutions to withdraw from the arena,'' RICS cited Andrew Grant, a real-estate agent in Worcester in the West Midlands, as saying.
The average cost of a loan fixed for 24 months with a 25 percent deposit was 6.36 percent last month, down from an eight- year high of 6.6 percent in June, the central bank said yesterday. The bank kept its main interest rate unchanged for a fourth month at 5 percent last week after three cuts since December.
The squeeze on credit has also prompted consumers to spend less. Sales in U.K. shops open at least a year fell an annual 0.9 percent in July, the British Retail Consortium, which represents 80 percent of stores, said in a separate report. Clothing, footwear, furniture and household goods led the decline.
Accelerating inflation has still prevented the Bank of England from cutting interest rates to stave off a recession. Consumer prices probably rose 4.2 percent in July, more than double the Bank of England's 2 percent target, the median forecast of 38 economists in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
The Office for National Statistics will release the inflation data at 9:30 a.m. today in London and the central bank will publish new quarterly economic forecasts tomorrow.
up too:grandmais
also when thinking about commodities one must remember all the commodities that go into building homes, commercial real estate....you name it
big demand loss (or at minimum the demand rate slows from its previous crazy pace) worldwide once the boom ends
i'm not a long term commodity bear.....obviously we got too many people and too few resources on a global scale.....but this shit coming has to be bad for commodities near term.....
------------------------------
U.K. July House Prices Drop as Loan Squeeze Locks Out Buyers
By Jennifer Ryan
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in July as the squeeze on credit locked out buyers and brought the property market to a ``virtual standstill,'' the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.
The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices dropped exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9 percentage points, the group said today in London. The reading was 94.7 percentage points in April, the most since the series began in 1978.
U.K. banks approved the fewest mortgages since at least 1999 in June and data yesterday showed that they haven't passed on most of the Bank of England's interest-rate cuts since December. The housing-market slump risks pushing the country into a recession that policy makers can do little to prevent as they combat inflation, which probably reached an 11-year high in July.
``The lack of mortgage finance has brought the housing market to a virtual standstill, with first-time buyers rapidly becoming an endangered species,'' Ian Perry, a spokesman for RICS, said in a statement.
All 11 regions tracked by RICS showed negative price balances on the month, led by the West Midlands, with a reading of minus 93. In London, the balance of prices measured was at minus 72, compared with minus 78 in June.
House prices fell the most in at least a quarter-century from a year earlier in July, according to HBOS Plc. Banks have curbed lending as they nurse losses and writedowns from the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapse totaling almost $500 billion worldwide.
Price `Fear'
``Falling prices and the fear of further reductions yet to come have caused both buyers and the lending institutions to withdraw from the arena,'' RICS cited Andrew Grant, a real-estate agent in Worcester in the West Midlands, as saying.
The average cost of a loan fixed for 24 months with a 25 percent deposit was 6.36 percent last month, down from an eight- year high of 6.6 percent in June, the central bank said yesterday. The bank kept its main interest rate unchanged for a fourth month at 5 percent last week after three cuts since December.
The squeeze on credit has also prompted consumers to spend less. Sales in U.K. shops open at least a year fell an annual 0.9 percent in July, the British Retail Consortium, which represents 80 percent of stores, said in a separate report. Clothing, footwear, furniture and household goods led the decline.
Accelerating inflation has still prevented the Bank of England from cutting interest rates to stave off a recession. Consumer prices probably rose 4.2 percent in July, more than double the Bank of England's 2 percent target, the median forecast of 38 economists in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
The Office for National Statistics will release the inflation data at 9:30 a.m. today in London and the central bank will publish new quarterly economic forecasts tomorrow.
also jdog think your feelers seeing a strong bid for the physical due to this russia/georgia situation as some thinking it might blow up to something bigger....since its over a oil pipeline might be more at stake here than meets the eye.....
if it does than all bets are off on my commodity deflation bit
plus war good for russia.....as war good for commodities.....which their economy is very dependent on
if it does than all bets are off on my commodity deflation bit
plus war good for russia.....as war good for commodities.....which their economy is very dependent on
Hehe
It took a big fat wriggly worm to get Woof back into this thread.
:toast:
-----------------------
WHAT is this life if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare
No time to stand beneath the boughs,
And stare as long as sheep and cows:
No time to see, when woods we pass,
Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass:
No time to see, in broad daylight,
Streams full of stars, like skies at night:
No time to turn at Beauty's glance,
And watch her feet, how they can dance:
No time to wait till her mouth can
Enrich that smile her eyes began?
A poor life this if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.
:grandmais
It took a big fat wriggly worm to get Woof back into this thread.
:toast:
-----------------------
WHAT is this life if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare
No time to stand beneath the boughs,
And stare as long as sheep and cows:
No time to see, when woods we pass,
Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass:
No time to see, in broad daylight,
Streams full of stars, like skies at night:
No time to turn at Beauty's glance,
And watch her feet, how they can dance:
No time to wait till her mouth can
Enrich that smile her eyes began?
A poor life this if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.
:grandmais
Commodities/Inflation: Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman says "falling commodity prices will act like a tax cut for households and businesses world wide." Thin says. Price pressures may ease in the coming months "which will allow some central banks to be a little less aggressive in terms of monetary tighting" he says for the US the thinking is that the effect of the federal stimulus packagaes has been limited because of the run-up in food and energy cost so the reverse may be seen in the coming months. In terms of US inflation expectations "as measured by 5-year forward rate have fallen in recent weeks to 2.52% currently from alomost 2.7% at the beginning of August" Thin notes.
Market News International
Market News International
well that is the whole question about this whole thing CS
how does a brazil, russia, canada, australia, pretty much every south american country including the XOM, the MOS, POT, CAT etc..... in the US and many other commodity interests worldwide effect the overall markets
vs. the dropping prices being less of a tax on the consumer
problem i see is dropping prices don't make much different when worldwide job losses are mounting, housing is falling, and in the US financial system is basically running on fumes
whether gas is 3 dollars (need to get oil back below 100) or 4 dollars still a tough spot for J6P regardless (can't get credit and in lotsa debt....and deflation if that's what is happening makes the debt burden greater)
how does a brazil, russia, canada, australia, pretty much every south american country including the XOM, the MOS, POT, CAT etc..... in the US and many other commodity interests worldwide effect the overall markets
vs. the dropping prices being less of a tax on the consumer
problem i see is dropping prices don't make much different when worldwide job losses are mounting, housing is falling, and in the US financial system is basically running on fumes
whether gas is 3 dollars (need to get oil back below 100) or 4 dollars still a tough spot for J6P regardless (can't get credit and in lotsa debt....and deflation if that's what is happening makes the debt burden greater)
WB lost more than previously reported on the auction rate stuff and axing 600 more jobs than previously planned
----------------------------
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wachovia Corp increased its previously reported second-quarter loss to $9.11 billion to cover costs to settle a probe of auction-rate securities sales, and said it will cut more jobs as the housing market deteriorates.
The fourth-largest U.S. bank is now reporting a loss of $4.31 per share, up from the $8.86 billion, or $4.20 a share, it reported on July 22, according to its quarterly report filed on Monday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Wachovia also now plans to cut 6,950 jobs, 600 more than it had disclosed, with the additional cuts coming from mortgage operations, spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown said. The cuts affect about 5.8 percent of Wachovia's 120,000-person workforce. Wachovia also is also eliminating 4,400 open positions.
Separately, Wachovia said the SEC may recommend civil charges against its main banking unit in connection with municipal derivatives transactions. It also said various state attorneys general have issued subpoenas over that matter. The bank said it was cooperating with the probes. Bank of America Corp reported receiving its own subpoenas last week.
----------------------------
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wachovia Corp increased its previously reported second-quarter loss to $9.11 billion to cover costs to settle a probe of auction-rate securities sales, and said it will cut more jobs as the housing market deteriorates.
The fourth-largest U.S. bank is now reporting a loss of $4.31 per share, up from the $8.86 billion, or $4.20 a share, it reported on July 22, according to its quarterly report filed on Monday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Wachovia also now plans to cut 6,950 jobs, 600 more than it had disclosed, with the additional cuts coming from mortgage operations, spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown said. The cuts affect about 5.8 percent of Wachovia's 120,000-person workforce. Wachovia also is also eliminating 4,400 open positions.
Separately, Wachovia said the SEC may recommend civil charges against its main banking unit in connection with municipal derivatives transactions. It also said various state attorneys general have issued subpoenas over that matter. The bank said it was cooperating with the probes. Bank of America Corp reported receiving its own subpoenas last week.
