INTERLEAGUE
Boston (37-24) at Philadelphia (35-24)
The Red Sox will try to run their winning streak to five when they send Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.33 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies and young left-hander Antonio Bastardo (2-0, 2.45).
Boston overcame a blown save in the ninth inning and beat the Phillies 6-3 in 13 innings on Friday night in the series opener. The Red Sox have now won three straight over Philadelphia and 12 of the last 14 against the Phillies dating back to 2004.
The Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and they have now won five straight on the highway. They’ve also dominated interleague play, currently on runs of 54-18 overall, 25-9 on the road and 36-17 against N.L. East foes. The Phillies are on several hot streaks as well, including 10-4 overall, 4-2 at home, 5-2 in interleague play, 40-18 against winning teams, 15-6 on Saturdays and 6-1 against right-handed pitching.
Matsuzaka is just 1-2 in his last three outings with a 5.17 ERA and he’s got a 7.36 ERA this season on the highway. The Rangers knocked him around Sunday, scoring five runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win at Fenway Park. The right-hander has allowed three runs or more in five of his six starts this season. Still, with Matsuzaka on the hill, the Sox are on runs of 32-12 overall, 5-1 on Saturdays, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-2 in interleague action and 12-5 in the second game of a series.
Bastardo has been fantastic in his first two career starts, holding the Padres to one run on four hits in six innings in a 10-5 win on June 2 and then limiting the Dodgers to two runs in five innings of a 7-2 win on Sunday, both on the road. He’s got nine strikeouts and just two walks in his 11 innings.
The Red Sox are on several “under” runs, including 22-6-2 overall, 8-2-1 in interleague action, 8-2 on the road, 4-0 on Saturdays and 36-15-4 as in interleague underdog, and with Matsuzaka pitching, they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-2 in interleague games and 11-5-2 in the second game of a series. Philadelphia has topped the total in seven on its last 10 Saturday games, but it is on “under” runs of 14-5-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-0 against the A.L. East, 14-3-1 in interleague action and 8-3 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six series clashes in Philadelphia and 6-3 in the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Mets (31-28) at N.Y. Yankees (35-26)
After an unbelievable loss in Game 1 of this edition of the Subway Series, the Mets send recently recalled Fernando Nieve (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound for his first start of the season opposite Yankees veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22).
The Mets took the lead Friday night in the eighth inning off Mariano Rivera and appeared to have the game won when closer Francisco Rodriguez got Yankees’ slugger Alex Rodriguez to pop up with two outs and two on. But Mets’ second baseman Luis Castillo dropped the pop up in short right field, allowing both runners to score and the Yankees to escape with a 9-8 victory.
The Mets have now lost seven of their last 10 and six of their last eight on the highway. Jerry Manuel’s club is 4-2 in its last six games in American League parks and 7-3 in its last 10 Saturday contests, but the Mets are just 1-4 in their last five against lefties and they’ve dropped four straight in the second game of a series.
The Yankees are now on upticks of 13-4 at home, 20-9 overall and 56-22 when hosting National League squads, 9-2 against right-handed pitching, 19-9 in Game 2 of a series, 19-9 on Saturdays but just 2-4 in their last six interleague games.
The Yankees have now won three of four in the Subway Series, and they are 8-2 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts against the Mets and 4-1 when he faces them in Yankee Stadium.
Nieve hasn’t started a game since 2006 when he was with the Astros and his only action this season came a week ago when he pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Nationals. He went 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in four starts at Triple-A Buffalo.
Pettitte is 3-1 at home and the Yankees have won five of his last six outings overall, including Monday when he held the Rays to three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 5-3 victory. He faced the Mets twice last season and gave up a combined five runs in 12 innings as the teams split the two games. The Yankees are 73-34 in Pettitte’s last 107 home starts, 76-34 when he’s a home favorite, 16-5 when he faces N.L. East teams and 4-0 in his last four Saturday starts.
The Mets have topped the total in each of their last five as a ‘dog, and gone over in six straight interleague road games against southpaws and seven of 11 as an interleague ‘dog. Meanwhile the Yankees are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 4-1-1 overall and 7-1 in interleague play, and with Pettitte on the hill, they are on “under” streaks of 20-9-1 at home, 41-17-1 overall, 10-1-1 in interleague games and 8-1 against N.L. East teams.
Finally, with last night’s high-scoring affair, the over has now hit in six straight Subway Series battles at Yankee Stadium, but the under is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
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