Ohio State: Is this the most talented team in college football? Maybe. It's definitely the
deepest and most athletic team of Urban Meyer's tenure at Ohio State, which is saying
something (Meyer 73-8 SU). One of the keys is the play of new quarterback Dwayne
Haskins, and how the offense changes to fit his skill set. That remains to be seen. But
the Buckeyes are loaded. Having the nation's strongest running back tandem in 1000-yard
rushers J.k. Gobbins and Mike Weber is a powerful weapon, to say the least. That and 229
career starts back on both sides of the ball make the Buckeyes a team to deal with. Any-
thing less than a New Year's Six bowl...if not a spot in the CFB Playoffs would be a huge
disappointment.
Oregon State....Rutgers.....@TCU.....Tulane.....@Penn State.....Indiana.....Minnesota.....
@Purdue.....Nebraska.....@Michigan State.....@Maryland.....Michigan
Sidenote: The Buckeyes are 0-8 against the spread after playing Indiana. (Minnesota, Nov. 10)
deepest and most athletic team of Urban Meyer's tenure at Ohio State, which is saying
something (Meyer 73-8 SU). One of the keys is the play of new quarterback Dwayne
Haskins, and how the offense changes to fit his skill set. That remains to be seen. But
the Buckeyes are loaded. Having the nation's strongest running back tandem in 1000-yard
rushers J.k. Gobbins and Mike Weber is a powerful weapon, to say the least. That and 229
career starts back on both sides of the ball make the Buckeyes a team to deal with. Any-
thing less than a New Year's Six bowl...if not a spot in the CFB Playoffs would be a huge
disappointment.
Oregon State....Rutgers.....@TCU.....Tulane.....@Penn State.....Indiana.....Minnesota.....
@Purdue.....Nebraska.....@Michigan State.....@Maryland.....Michigan
Sidenote: The Buckeyes are 0-8 against the spread after playing Indiana. (Minnesota, Nov. 10)
I saw that too. That Penn St game last year gassed both teams as they both lost SU next week. Big comeback for Barrett as he went 13 of 13 in 4th quarter to come from behind. Next week, first pass is a pick-6 at Iowa. Situational bet there.
When I see these trends have to asked myself, Why are they happening? Can you find a logical explanation, a reason?
Here is one; Northwestern has been 4-0 SU playing at Michigan State. Michigan State was 4-0 SU at Northwestern until last year. What happened last year? MSU boarded their plane for the one hour flight to Evanston Ill when the plane had to abort a takeoff as the pilot had a warning light. They cleared it and tried again with same thing. Everybody off the plane and took a 4-hour bus ride instead. Messed up their schedule/walkthrough and they end up losing in 3 OT's.
I think Ohio State will score more than 45 on Oregon State. Ohio State had five wins last year greater than 37 points. They have upped their offensive tempo by almost 5 seconds per play. Credit QB coach Ryan Day for that. Haskins is laser sharp with his throws. Urban does not let up and his reserves who play late get scoring plays from the coaches box, not run the clock out.
Michigan's defense is for real and this year they have more depth, experience. Don Brown is a master of defensive schemes. But the offense is totally unproven. And speaking of Ole Miss, I watched tapes of Patterson after he transferred to Mich. The kid was running for his life. Defenses were teeing off on him as Ole Miss had no running game at all. Pass happy cause that's all they could do. Harbaugh is 18-1 when his QB has a game QB rating greater than 40, just 40. Under 40 and he is 10-10. Against Alabama Patterson had a rating of 7. But again, no run game. But I'm not sold on Shea being a savior for the Michigan offense. He is going from a gun slinging cowboy to a game manager. He's not going to get three chances to pass every set of downs, maybe one and it has to count. He has the tools and Harbaugh has the reputation of developing good QB's, which has had none up to now, so I see why Notre Dame opened at -7 at the South Point and is now +2, 2.5. ND's QB Wimbush had mental training during the offseason. He felt most of his trouble was all in his head. We'll see how that turns out.
Michigan is 4-0 at home SU against the Irish and 1-3 SU away. If anything I would bet a halftime Under in this one.
247 has Maryland beating Texas again, interesting. Do not think that is going to happen. Not sure if Texas covers but that lose stung them bad last year. This year they want it bad. Another interesting point, Herman is not saying who will call plays this year, has Beck on a short leash it seems. Meanwhile Harbaugh has no OC at all, appears it will be a committee effort between all offensive coaches with Harbaugh having the final say.
That's one thing about Nick Saban and Alabama. If game one is a nationally televised affair with a brand name ranked foe Alabama will kick their azz. I had Bama big against Denard Robinson and the undersized Wolverines in 2012 and BIG against Wisky in 2015, USC 2016, and FSU last year. Easiest way to start the season on the +++++ side!
USC will be 35-2 after the UNLV game, but then all bets are off. The loser of the USC-Stanford game starts off in a big hole in the race for the Pac 12 Championship. This is the 5th season in a row that USC and Stanford have played each other in week 2 or 3, depending on what their individual schedules look like. In 2015 Stanford defeated USC twice. Last season USC defeated Stanford twice. USC has never lost to Stanford and won the Pac 12 title. Stanford is currently a 3 point pick in the game, and barring a major upset in week 1, that probably will not change.
CFB News early August predictions:
August 25
Wyoming (-6) 27 New Mexico St. 17
Colorado St. (-14) 45 Hawaii 30
August 30
Central Fla (-24) 35 UConn 30
Purdue (-3) 35 Northwestern 17
Minnesota (-18) 38 New Mexico St. 17
Wake Forest (-7) 27 Tulane 23
August 31
Michigan St. (-25) 40 Utah St. 17
Syracuse (-6) 31 Western Michigan 23
Wisconsin (-34.5) 52 Western Kentucky 13
Colorado (-6) 27 Colorado St. 20
Stanford (-14.5) 26 San Diego St. 24
*For information only.
August 25
Wyoming (-6) 27 New Mexico St. 17
Colorado St. (-14) 45 Hawaii 30
August 30
Central Fla (-24) 35 UConn 30
Purdue (-3) 35 Northwestern 17
Minnesota (-18) 38 New Mexico St. 17
Wake Forest (-7) 27 Tulane 23
August 31
Michigan St. (-25) 40 Utah St. 17
Syracuse (-6) 31 Western Michigan 23
Wisconsin (-34.5) 52 Western Kentucky 13
Colorado (-6) 27 Colorado St. 20
Stanford (-14.5) 26 San Diego St. 24
*For information only.
Clemson Defense: The Tigers return eight starters from a 2017 defense that finished
4th in the nation in total defense at 276 yards per game and 2nd in scoring defense at
13.6 points per game. Clemson defensive front should be the best in the country as the
Tigers return four All-Americans in Colin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Christian Wilkins and Dex
Lawrence. Also, two starters return at linebacker in Kendall Joseph and Tre Lamar. About
the only question mark with this unit is replacing two starters in the secondary. With how
Clemson has recruited of late, most expect the secondary to more than hold their own.
Defense wins championships. Guess Dabo learned that as a player and assistant coach at
Alabama.
Sidenote: Brent Venables, Clemson's defensive coordinator just received a new 5 year, $11.6
million dollar contract. Venables, considered one of the best DC in college football, does not
have a buyout clause in his contract if he were to leave for a head coaching job. He would have
to pay one quarter of his remaining contract depending on when - if - he left Clemson.
Sidenote: Clemson's Dabo Swinney is second behind Saban with the highest salary ($8.5) in
college football.
4th in the nation in total defense at 276 yards per game and 2nd in scoring defense at
13.6 points per game. Clemson defensive front should be the best in the country as the
Tigers return four All-Americans in Colin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Christian Wilkins and Dex
Lawrence. Also, two starters return at linebacker in Kendall Joseph and Tre Lamar. About
the only question mark with this unit is replacing two starters in the secondary. With how
Clemson has recruited of late, most expect the secondary to more than hold their own.
Defense wins championships. Guess Dabo learned that as a player and assistant coach at
Alabama.
Sidenote: Brent Venables, Clemson's defensive coordinator just received a new 5 year, $11.6
million dollar contract. Venables, considered one of the best DC in college football, does not
have a buyout clause in his contract if he were to leave for a head coaching job. He would have
to pay one quarter of his remaining contract depending on when - if - he left Clemson.
Sidenote: Clemson's Dabo Swinney is second behind Saban with the highest salary ($8.5) in
college football.
Washington State: The Cougars have led the nation in passing play percentage every year
since 2012 behind Mike Leach's Air Raid System. Last year it went to the air on 72 percent
of the snaps. It is not surprising the offense is good at finding the end zone via the pass,
averaging 2.9 touchdowns per game in that span. The Cougars post 30.6 points per game
overall. Where Washington State excels in the betting market is against teams capable of
matching its touchdown production on paper. Quick passing scores by opponents give the
Cougs' offense more opportunity which leads to extra scoring. Against teams averaging 1.8
passing touchdowns or more for the season, Washington State is 23-10-1 against the spread,
covering 7.8 average line by 3.22 points per game. They average 404 passing yards on 59.7
passes. Against lessor teams, the Cougars put up just 359 yards on 51.1 passes. Leach is
130-87 SU and 112-96-5 ATS (53.8%) all-time as a college head coach. He is 38-38 SU and
39-31 ATS at Washington State.
@Wyoming.....San Jose St.....Eastern Washington.....@Southern Cal.....Utah.....@Oregon St
…..Oregon.....@Stanford.....California.....@Colorado.....Arizona.....Washington
Sidenote: Washington State is 15-0 against the spread as Dogs of 11 plus playing a team who
won straight up in their last game.
since 2012 behind Mike Leach's Air Raid System. Last year it went to the air on 72 percent
of the snaps. It is not surprising the offense is good at finding the end zone via the pass,
averaging 2.9 touchdowns per game in that span. The Cougars post 30.6 points per game
overall. Where Washington State excels in the betting market is against teams capable of
matching its touchdown production on paper. Quick passing scores by opponents give the
Cougs' offense more opportunity which leads to extra scoring. Against teams averaging 1.8
passing touchdowns or more for the season, Washington State is 23-10-1 against the spread,
covering 7.8 average line by 3.22 points per game. They average 404 passing yards on 59.7
passes. Against lessor teams, the Cougars put up just 359 yards on 51.1 passes. Leach is
130-87 SU and 112-96-5 ATS (53.8%) all-time as a college head coach. He is 38-38 SU and
39-31 ATS at Washington State.
@Wyoming.....San Jose St.....Eastern Washington.....@Southern Cal.....Utah.....@Oregon St
…..Oregon.....@Stanford.....California.....@Colorado.....Arizona.....Washington
Sidenote: Washington State is 15-0 against the spread as Dogs of 11 plus playing a team who
won straight up in their last game.
Today's Amazing Stat:
The Louisville Cardinals are 23-6 ATS in the first three games of the season. Gm 1 (6-1),
Gm 2 (10-3), Gm 3 (7-2). This season, Alabama, Indiana State and Western Kentucky fit
the situation.
Sidenote: Three coaches are a combined 308-58 (84,6%) straight up at their current schools.
Alabama's Nick Saban (134-20, 87%), Clemson's Dabo Swinney (101-30, 77%), Ohio State's
Urban Meyer (73-8, 90%). They are also the highest paid CFB coaches.
The Louisville Cardinals are 23-6 ATS in the first three games of the season. Gm 1 (6-1),
Gm 2 (10-3), Gm 3 (7-2). This season, Alabama, Indiana State and Western Kentucky fit
the situation.
Sidenote: Three coaches are a combined 308-58 (84,6%) straight up at their current schools.
Alabama's Nick Saban (134-20, 87%), Clemson's Dabo Swinney (101-30, 77%), Ohio State's
Urban Meyer (73-8, 90%). They are also the highest paid CFB coaches.
Washington State is really hurting on offense. They return 4 starters, 2 of which are WR's and the other 2 OL's. They have a 6 way battle at QB. The defense returns 7 starters, but are very thin up front and in the back 4 spots. The biggest problem that Wazzu will have is the schedule. They MUST win all three conference games to have any hope of seeing 6 wins. Even if they do that, they have a 6 game run to end the season with Oregon, @ Stanford, Cal, @ Colorado, Arizona and Washington. They may be dogs in all 6 of those games. They also go to USC and host Utah. 6 wins will be very difficult for this team.
Minnesota: The first season under P.J. Fleck didn't go as planned as the Golden Gophers went 5-7
overall and just 2-7 in the Big Ten. Minnesota badly needs a quarterback if they are to take a step
forward and I'm not sure they have one. Redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan holds an edge over true
freshman Zack Annexstad to start. Seven starters return on a defensive unit that held opponents to
22.8 points per game last year. They also featured one of the best pass defenses in the country during
2017 allowing just 175 yards per game. The schedule for the Gophers is reasonable, but the problem
is that Minnesota simply is not very good. The only sure win on the schedule is Miami. The Gophers
will probably beat New Mexico State and Indiana, but that only gets them to three wins. For Minny to
get to six wins they will have to win games against Fresno State, Maryland and Illinois. They would also
need to win another game to get to seven wins and go over their win total of six. I would think the more
likely scenario is that the Gophers go 4-8 or 5-7.
New Mexico St.....Fresno St.....Miami, Oh.....@Maryland.....Iowa.....@Ohio St.....@Nebraska.....Indiana
…..@Illinois.....Purdue.....Northwestern.....@Wisconsin
Sidenote: Minnesota has not won at Wisconsin since 1994 and they won't win this year. (Wisconsin, Nov. 24)
Sidenote: Minnesota is 1-7-1 against the spread after playing Purdue. (Northwestern, Nov. 17)
overall and just 2-7 in the Big Ten. Minnesota badly needs a quarterback if they are to take a step
forward and I'm not sure they have one. Redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan holds an edge over true
freshman Zack Annexstad to start. Seven starters return on a defensive unit that held opponents to
22.8 points per game last year. They also featured one of the best pass defenses in the country during
2017 allowing just 175 yards per game. The schedule for the Gophers is reasonable, but the problem
is that Minnesota simply is not very good. The only sure win on the schedule is Miami. The Gophers
will probably beat New Mexico State and Indiana, but that only gets them to three wins. For Minny to
get to six wins they will have to win games against Fresno State, Maryland and Illinois. They would also
need to win another game to get to seven wins and go over their win total of six. I would think the more
likely scenario is that the Gophers go 4-8 or 5-7.
New Mexico St.....Fresno St.....Miami, Oh.....@Maryland.....Iowa.....@Ohio St.....@Nebraska.....Indiana
…..@Illinois.....Purdue.....Northwestern.....@Wisconsin
Sidenote: Minnesota has not won at Wisconsin since 1994 and they won't win this year. (Wisconsin, Nov. 24)
Sidenote: Minnesota is 1-7-1 against the spread after playing Purdue. (Northwestern, Nov. 17)
Minnesota is one of 6 Big 10 teams scrambling to a 6-6 season and a legitimate bowl bid (5 wins and an invitation because your players were able to cheat better than another schools players does not count for me). The other 5 are Nebraska, Northwestern and Purdue in the West, and Indiana and Maryland in the East. Minnesota is the only team that plays the other 5, so they have the best chance to control their destiny. They should be able to beat New Mexico State, and Illinois. Miami should be a win, but that can be iffy. It is a home game. Fresno State, Iowa, @Ohio State, and @ Wisconsin should be, or will be losses. So we have 3-4 with 5 games remaining. They must win 3 of those games. Since two of those games are on the road @ Maryland and Nebraska, they must win everything else at home. That is a proposition that I an not willing to wager on.
