RX Forum Bettors Thread

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Duke: One glance at the Blue Devils stat log tells you everything about their 2017 season.
They were 7-0 SUATS in games when they won the stats battle and 0-6 SUATS in games
when they didn't. With most starters returning on both sides of the football (15), the Blue
Devils believe they have the experience to turn things around and make a deep run in the
ACC. The offense struggled in the passing game last year and it wasn't just inconsistent
play by the quarterbacks. Duke didn't have a receiver who could go up and catch the ball
or a guy who could get physical and get open when needed. A look at the roster shows the
receivers still lack the kind of elite, physical presence they need. The defense, while it returns
8 starters, gave up 20.2 points per game last year and surrendered 332 yards per game, the
fourth most in the conference. Duke's biggest weakness was giving plays of 40 yards or more,
second only to Wake Forest in the league. If the Devils are able to prevent big plays and win
close games unlike last season, they could surprise in the ACC this season. With a respected
coach and a number of talented players, they just need to put it all together during 2018.

Army.....@Northwestern.....@Baylor.....NC Central.....Virginia Tech.....Georgia Tech.....Virginia
…..@Pittsburgh.....@Miami.....North Carolina.....@Clemson.....Wake Forest

Sidenote: Duke started a total of 28 different players last season which was the fewest in the
nation.

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stats:

The Utah Utes are a money winning 13-3 against the spread in Game 9 of the season.
(@ Arizona State, Nov. 3rd)

Utah's head coach Kyle Whittingham is 17-4 straight up against the other Power Five
conferences.

GL

 

[The Pooh]

Utah hosts BYU in one of the best little known rivalries in the nation. These games can get very physical. This game, at the endof the season, may mean a lot for both teams.

 

[Statcentral14]

I have no faith in BYU coaching staff.

 

[The Pooh]

BYU is an excellent play in October. After starting 1-4 in September, with losses @Arizona, Cal, @Wisconsin and @Washington, the schedule gets much easier in October. Three games, all at home. People do not buy into 1-4 teams, so the lines in those three games will be way off. Play on BYU in October.

 

[Enfuego]

I have no faith in BYU coaching staff.

I have no faith in their shitty qb situation.

 

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BYU: The Cougars were just plain bad last year, with one of the program's worst seasons since the
early 1970s. Offensive woes coupled with a rash of turnovers led the team to struggle to put points
on the scoreboard. After a 20-6 win over Portland State in the season opener, the Cougars dropped
seven games in a row. It was the longest losing streak in close to 50 years and set the program up
for its first losing season in 14 years. BYU's three other wins were against teams with a losing record
(San Jose St., UNLV and Hawaii). The offense suffered through a terrible season failing to average
20 points per game for the first time since 2003. In fact, the team scored 10 points or less five times
in 2017, including being shutout for the first time since 2015. New OC Jeff Grimes has ditched the
pro-style offense, electing to go with a multiple formation scheme that better suits the teams players.
Things didn't go nearly as poorly defensively for BYU as it did on the offensive side, but the Cougars
did struggle in certain facets. The 25 points and 373 yards given up on average was the highest total
since the 2014 season, with the unit registering just 17 sacks. BYU returns 14 starters (good or bad?)
and should benefit from lessons learned the hard way last season but will probably struggle for a break
even season this year.

@Arizona.....Cal.....@Wisconsin.....McNeese State.....@Washington.....Utah State.....Hawaii.....Northern
Illinois.....@Boise State.....@UMass.....New Mexico State.....@Utah

Sidenote: BYU is 7-0 against the spread before playing Utah. New Mexico State (Nov. 17) fits the bill
this season.

 

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Today's Amazing Stat:

The BYU Cougars are 14-3 against the spread in Game 1 of the season. The Cougars will open at
Arizona on September 1st.

GL

 

[cloverleaf]

Lane Kiffin: Florida Atlantic University gave Kiffin a 5 year $4.75 million contract upon his hiring as
head football coach. Included in Kiffin's deal was a clause that called for the school to grant Kiffin a
$2 million home loan that he would not have to repay should he remain FAU's coach through the
2021 season. Kiffin purchased a $2.1 million home in NE Boca Raton last May. The 2021 season would
be his 5th with the school. Also, the terms of the deal call for FAU to forgive 20 percent of the loan
with each passing year. Should Kiffin leave after the 2018 season, he would need to repay Florida
Atlantic $1.2 million of the loan in addition to his $750,000 buyout. Kiffin's $1.35 million base com-
pensation package makes him the highest paid coach in C-USA.

Anyone believe Lane will coach at Florida Atlantic through the 2021 season? I don't.

 

[The Pooh]

Where would he go? Obviously it would have to be to a power 5 school, but you can rule out the Pac 12 and SEC. The Big 10 is a very poor match up for his style of football. That leaves the Big 12, but their two perinneal powers have their new HC's locked up.

 

[CoachCB]

Lane Kiffin: Florida Atlantic University gave Kiffin a 5 year $4.75 million contract upon his hiring as
head football coach. Included in Kiffin's deal was a clause that called for the school to grant Kiffin a
$2 million home loan that he would not have to repay should he remain FAU's coach through the
2021 season. Kiffin purchased a $2.1 million home in NE Boca Raton last May. The 2021 season would
be his 5th with the school. Also, the terms of the deal call for FAU to forgive 20 percent of the loan
with each passing year. Should Kiffin leave after the 2018 season, he would need to repay Florida
Atlantic $1.2 million of the loan in addition to his $750,000 buyout. Kiffin's $1.35 million base com-
pensation package makes him the highest paid coach in C-USA.

Anyone believe Lane will coach at Florida Atlantic through the 2021 season? I don't.

Agree, Kiffin is gone - probably after this season. He likely lands a very high profile job as well. LSU would be a great landing spot - he'd butt heads w/ Saban and would make things very interesting in the SEC.

 

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Florida: The Gators will probably be favored in 9 of 12 games this season, with just one
double-digit underdog spot (Georgia) and five games with single digit margins. Replacing
an ineffective strength and conditioning program should cut down on injuries and help
fortify Gators' linemen. Ole Miss transfer WR Van Jefferson and a healthy backfield give
Florida an impressive collection of skill players. Run defense against good teams is a big
concern, and the Gators are a year away from above average FBS quarterback play.

Sidenote: Florida is 1-6 against the spread after playing Georgia. They will play Missouri
on November 3rd after the Dawgs this season.
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LSU: It's hard to find more than 25 teams that should be favored over the Tigers during
the 2018 season. But the schedule is BRUTAL. LSU faces seven teams ranked in the pre-
season top 30. Fall a little short of expectations and the Tigers could need to beat Texas
A&M in the finale just to make a bowl game. The defense has a chance to be a Top 10
unit nationally. But the offense will need to rely on the passing game, a problem area lately.

Sidenote: LSU is 6-0 against the spread before playing Alabama. They will host Mississippi
State October 20th before Bama this season.
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Ole Miss: The Rebels schedule features three automatic home wins and three winnable games
away versus Texas Tech, at Arkansas and at Vanderbilt. They will be short underdogs against
South Carolina, making another six win season very plausible. QB Jordan Ta'amu, WR A. J.
Brown and others can dismantle opposing secondaries. But last year's run defense was totally
embarrassing, and there's not much optimism that it will improve. Plus, NCAA sanctions and
transfers have sapped team depth, which could mean trouble over the course of a tough SEC
season.

Sidenote: Ole Miss is 8-2 against the spread playing a non-conference opponent at home. Kent
State, Southern Illinois and UL-Monroe fit the situation this year.
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Today's Amazing Stat:

The North Texas Mean Green are a money burning 0-11 against the spread after playing FAU.
(UTSA, November, 24th)

GL

 

[The Pooh]

LSU is in big trouble at the QB position. Half of the four players competing for the starting role left the team yesterday. LSU has a decent offensive line, but little more. They will not score a lot this season. Their defense is not as good as last year's group. Neither LSU or HC Orgeron have been real good in the clutch. This year, the clutch may be to get to 6 wins. Games at Miami, Auburn, Florida and A&M, plus home games against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama (back to back to back with an off week between State and 'Bama) add up to 7 very possible losses.

 

[Mike2332]

Wyoming: The Cowboys return 17 starters including 8 from a defense that ranked ninth
nationally in scoring defense, giving up just 17.5 points per game. All-American candidate
Andrew Wingard, an elite safety, leads the defense. He is joined by defensive lineman Carl
Granderson, an athletic playmaker who is very disruptive up front. The offense has nowhere
to go but up as the unit struggled last year. As bad as the offense was during 2017, they
did rank No. 1 in turnover margin. New quarterback Tyler Waal is slated to run what is hope-
fully an improved unit. Thanks to a potent defense and manageable schedule, Wyoming
should earn a bowl bid. Anything more than that will hinge on the offense ability to improve
and the defense continuing to play at an elite level.

@New Mexico State.....Washington State.....@Missouri.....Wofford.....Boise State.....@Hawaii.....
@Fresno State.....Utah State.....@Colorado State.....San Jose State.....Air Force.....@New Mexico

Sidenote: Wyoming led all FBS teams in turnover margin and turnovers gained last season.

Sidenote: Wyoming is 7-0 against the spread before playing Fresno State. (@Hawaii, Oct. 6)

Do you have an opinion on the Wyoming VS New Mexico ST game in week 1
Line is Wyoming -4.5

THNX

 

[The Pooh]

New Mexico State is 4-2 as a home dog in the past two seasons. Wyoming is 1-4-1 as an away favorite during that time. Caviat emptor.

 

[cloverleaf]

Do you have an opinion on the Wyoming VS New Mexico ST game in week 1
Line is Wyoming -4.5

THNX

Good question Mike. The line opened at 5 and is now down to 4 in some shops. My system has Wyoming -13.5
but I don't fully trust it until after three games have been played. Both teams had winning records last season
and return about the same number of starters (NMST 15 and Wyo 17). Also, both teams will be breaking in a
new quarterback. I would lean Wyoming even knowing they are not good Road Favorites but not enough to put
money on it. I do like the UNDER as the play for this game. It opened at 48.5 and has been bid down to 46/46.5
depending on which book you look at. New Mexico State has played under 8-0-1 their last 9 home games and
Wyoming has played under in 6 of their last 8 non-conference games. Both teams breaking in new starters at
quarterback is also a factor for me.

I will pass on the side but place a small wager on the Under. Just my take and good luck with your play.

 

[cloverleaf]

Mississippi State: The Dan Mullen era at MSU ends, and the start of the Joe Moorhead era begins.
Mullen's final year in Starkville was another reminder of how far the program had come during his
nine years with the school. The Bulldogs won nine games for the third time in four seasons and
appeared in a school record eighth consecutive bowl game. Mullen left Mississippi State in excellent
shape as the Dogs return 16 starters, including veteran quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and several 1st
team preseason All-SEC selections. Few new head coaches will walk into as good a situation as Joe
Moorhead. The former Penn State offensive coordinator inherits a potential 10-win team with talent
on both sides of the ball. Playing in the tough SEC West is never easy, especially with trips to Bama
and LSU. A September 29 home date with Mullen's Florida Gators might be the most intriguing game
on the schedule. In the end, though, anything shy of a New Year's Day Bowl would be a major dis-
appointment for all Bulldog faithful.

S.F. Austin.....@Kansas State.....Louisiana.....@Kentucky.....Florida.....Auburn.....@LSU.....Texas A&M
…..Louisiana Tech.....@Alabama.....Arkansas.....@Ole Miss

Sidenote: Mississippi State is 7-0 against the spread in the second of back-to-back home games.
Auburn (Oct. 6) and La Tech (Nov. 3) fit the situation this season.

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stat:

The Ball State Cardinals are 12-0 against the spread after playing Eastern Michigan. The
Cards will travel to Miami (Oh) on October 25th after Eastern Michigan this season.

GL