Running dogs 2018-2019

[gk51]

New Mexico St W

Washington St L
Mizzou L

5-3

I never saw Washington St listed as a running dog, GoSooners said to add New Mexico St and Washington.

 

[Rounding]

Utah State +7.5

 

[Rounding]

Sorry wrong thread lol

 

[aderol]

bump. run it back?
This is who I get this year. i would love someone to double check my work

team	line
Boise St	2.5​
Oklahoma St	3.5​
Air Force	3​
USC	7.5​
Boston Col	11​
Mississippi	3.5​
Duke	7​
Memphis	8.5​
Louisiana	3​
Liberty	16​
N Illinois	1​
Washington	4​
W Kentucky	3​
Toledo	2.5​
S Florida	3.5​
E Michigan	15.5​
Alabama	1.5​
Oklahoma	3​
Marshall	9.5​

 

[aderol]

yuck, sorry about the formatting there.

to summarize, its a running dog system. the formula is: (off ypc - opponents def ypc) - (opponents ypc - def ypc). Team has to be getting points and have a positive differential

I got my data from teamrankings dot com

I sorted by largest differential- i believe futher back in the thread they said >2 had a pretty good record.

 

[indiana]

aderlo.....thank you for your info buddy....
much appreciated...BOL this Holiday Season....indy

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

These have done really well this year with running dogs going 6-2 this bowl season with teams that flipped from dogs to faves going an additional 4-0 for 10-2 overall.
Kansas State falls under the category of dogs that flipped to favorites

I’m teasing K State down to -1 with SF 49’ers +10.5

bump for this year on the line flip filter

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

 

[Bruins4Life]

Marshall line is 13.5 now, not 9.5

 

[NoCoke]

yuck, sorry about the formatting there.

to summarize, its a running dog system. the formula is: (off ypc - opponents def ypc) - (opponents ypc - def ypc). Team has to be getting points and have a positive differential

I got my data from teamrankings dot com

I sorted by largest differential- i believe futher back in the thread they said >2 had a pretty good record.

View attachment 79461

hmm I have a different list. I have:

Ohio (crossed 0), Miami-OH, Cal, ODU (crossed 0), NIU, GAST (crossed 0), BG, Tulane, UK, Toledo (crossed 0).

would be glad to check any numbers..

 

[G-Man!]

Where is the Won-Lost ATS tracking record over the last several years?

 

[Mofome2]

hmm I have a different list. I have:

Ohio (crossed 0), Miami-OH, Cal, ODU (crossed 0), NIU, GAST (crossed 0), BG, Tulane, UK, Toledo (crossed 0).

would be glad to check any numbers..

Is that the total team list NC? And just to clarify the team has to have a better rushing offense and rushing D and getting points correct?

 

[NoCoke]

Is that the total team list NC? And just to clarify the team has to have a better rushing offense and rushing D and getting points correct?

Kind of, see post 69.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

do we have clarification yet? Did I do all that organizing and sheet for the wrong group?

 

[Mofome2]

Ohio and Miamio Ohio are up today. Curious to see how it plays out with so many I am reading on GA Southern and App State

 

[xrao80x]

Reminder to everyone that this system and trends pre-date the transfer portal. The data was established before the madness of the Portal. So it makes sense to check that the plays aren’t on teams devastated by the portal

 

[aderol]

hmm I have a different list. I have:

Ohio (crossed 0), Miami-OH, Cal, ODU (crossed 0), NIU, GAST (crossed 0), BG, Tulane, UK, Toledo (crossed 0).

would be glad to check any numbers..

how are our lists so wildly different?

 

[Mofome2]

hmm I have a different list. I have:

Ohio (crossed 0), Miami-OH, Cal, ODU (crossed 0), NIU, GAST (crossed 0), BG, Tulane, UK, Toledo (crossed 0).

would be glad to check any numbers..

2-1 correct? Nice day

 

[NoCoke]

how are our lists so wildly different?

You are supposed to look at what a team averages and compare it to what the teams they have already played average.

Using Oregon, they average 5.5 YPC. Their opponents allow 4.26. Net of 1.24. They allow 3.3. Their opponents rush for 3.84. Net of 0.54. Total RD number = 1.77.

Same exercise for Liberty gets you 1.57. Which is why Liberty is not a RD.

 

[aderol]

You are supposed to look at what a team averages and compare it to what the teams they have already played average.

Using Oregon, they average 5.5 YPC. Their opponents allow 4.26. Net of 1.24. They allow 3.3. Their opponents rush for 3.84. Net of 0.54. Total RD number = 1.77.

Same exercise for Liberty gets you 1.57. Which is why Liberty is not a RD.

Ahhhh.. OK so I interpreted "opponent" as their bowl opponent, not previous opponents throughout the season.

So I took oregon's offensive YPC and subtracted Liberty's defensive YPC allowed, and vice versa (Liberty oYPC minus Oregons dYPC). Comparing these caluclated values- if the underdog has the advantage (which I called a "positive differential") then that made them a play.

Hopefully there is still an edge to these teams.
Interestingly, I placed my bets soon after opening lines came out and many of them have become more favorable (meaning I got crappy lines)

I didn't see stats for the average opponent YPC and defYPC. May I ask where you get that data from?