Road Wreck System Plays

[sds23]

Thank you for those numbers Biz.

I would consider that to be the final verdict in terms of past success.....spotty at best (between the two charts, about 10 winning seasons, 7 losing seasons and 1 season at 51%). I really do appreciate you obtaining those, even if they don’t necessarily support the more recent success of this system.

 

[sds23]

Since this system is basically new, I’ve also been keeping a close eye on the potential difference between using “14” or “16” and even “18” as the minimum number. Here are the records for those options Y.T.D.:

R/H @ 14 = 8~3
R/H @ 16 = 7~1
R/H @ 18 = 6~0

Obviously I will not be switching from “14” to “16” (or 18) this season, but it is something that is worth watching going forward. It improved the results of past seasons, and improves them this season as well.

 

[sds23]

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #10

In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15 points and plays on the road in week #10 (R/R FADE)

(Plays on TB, GB and CHI)

 

[METFAN]

SDS how have you been ? Long time no see..I moved to Florida. No more snow. Volunteer at the Humane Society and work at the Amalie Arena for the hockey games and concerts. Hockey games is as cold as I get! Are you still in Wisconsin?

 

[sds23]

SDS how have you been ? Long time no see..I moved to Florida. No more snow. Volunteer at the Humane Society and work at the Amalie Arena for the hockey games and concerts. Hockey games is as cold as I get! Are you still in Wisconsin?

Hey Met! I’ve been great. Thanks for asking. I am envious of your new location! No more snow? Sign me up. Too far from family though, so I guess I’m stuck with these Wisconsin winters. Gotta like dogs, hockey games, concerts and the beach. You’ve got it good Met!

 

[Biz]

Thank you for those numbers Biz.

I would consider that to be the final verdict in terms of past success.....spotty at best (between the two charts, about 10 winning seasons, 7 losing seasons and 1 season at 51%). I really do appreciate you obtaining those, even if they don’t necessarily support the more recent success of this system.

No problem.

It will be interesting to see how this does moving forward. GL with your action

 

[METFAN]

Hey Met! I’ve been great. Thanks for asking. I am envious of your new location! No more snow? Sign me up. Too far from family though, so I guess I’m stuck with these Wisconsin winters. Gotta like dogs, hockey games, concerts and the beach. You’ve got it good Met!

yes it is perfect in Tampa. Screened in pool and some fantastic golf courses as well. Joined a golf group then tore my meniscus. My luck. Cats both feel into the pool and dog hates it. As for family...getting away from my wife's made me wish I did this 10 yrs ago !!!!!!!!!

 

[METFAN]

isn't it time for your false favorites?

I would put Tampa in that category and unfortunately your Packers though for the life of me I can not figure out how Miami won 5 games. Let us know. I really liked that thread

 

[sds23]

isn't it time for your false favorites?

I would put Tampa in that category and unfortunately your Packers though for the life of me I can not figure out how Miami won 5 games. Let us know. I really liked that thread

You have a great memory! That sure was a sweet little system back in the day. Ultimately though, it started to fall down near 50% (low 50’s). I chalked it up to all the changes that had occurred (and was occurring) in the league back then. The biggest changes of course being the restructuring of the divisions, the restructuring of the bye weeks, as well as tons of other changes to the rules, the league and how the game is being played.

The system was very simple though: FADE ANY FAVORITE WITH LESS WINS THAN THEIR OPPONENT.

I’ll have to take a peek at how this is doing these days. I lasted checked a few years ago and it was still in the low 50’s (51-53% range).

 

[sds23]

Pending:

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #10

In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15 points and plays on the road in week #10 (R/R FADE)

(Plays on TB, GB and CHI)

 

[sds23]

Week #10 Results:

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #10

In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY) LOSS
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY) WIN
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15 points and plays on the road in week #10 (R/R FADE) WIN

(Plays on TB, GB and CHI)

Week #10: 2~1

 

[sds23]

​Road Wreck System Record Y.T.D.: 15~4

In week #3 GB lost at WA by 14, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #3 NE lost at DET by 16, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 NYJ lost at JAX by 19, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 MIA lost at NE by 31, then failed to cover in week #5 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #4 BUF lost at GB by 22, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 TB lost at CHI by 38, had a bye, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 DEN lost at NYJ by 18, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 ATL lost at PIT by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 OAK lost at LAC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 at home (1st R/H LOSS).
In week #5 WA lost at NO by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 IND lost at NE by 14, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 JAX lost at KC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15, then failed to cover in week #9 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19, then covered at home in week #9 (R/H win).
In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15, then failed to cover at home in week #9 (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14, then failed to cover in week #9 on the road (R/R win).
In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14, then failed to cover in week #10 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14, then covered at home in week #10 (R/H win).
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15, then failed to cover in week #10 on the road (R/R fade win).

“R/H Plays” are 9~4
”R/R Fades” are 6~0

 

[sds23]

“ROAD / HOME PLAY” NOTE: As stated before, I’ve also been keeping a close eye on the potential difference between using “14” or “16” and even “18” as the minimum number. Here are the records for those options Y.T.D.:

R/H @ 14 = 9~4
R/H @ 16 = 7~1
R/H @ 18 = 6~0

I will not be switching from “14” to “16” (or 18) this season, but will be watching it going forward in case adjustments need to be made for next season.

 

[sds23]

Something worth watching is how the system plays do when we have to wait a week due to “bye” weeks:

​Road Wreck System Record Y.T.D.: 15~4

In week #3 GB lost at WA by 14, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #3 NE lost at DET by 16, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 NYJ lost at JAX by 19, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 MIA lost at NE by 31, then failed to cover in week #5 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #4 BUF lost at GB by 22, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 TB lost at CHI by 38, had a bye, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 DEN lost at NYJ by 18, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 ATL lost at PIT by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 OAK lost at LAC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 at home (1st R/H LOSS).
In week #5 WA lost at NO by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 IND lost at NE by 14, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 JAX lost at KC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15, then failed to cover in week #9 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19, then covered at home in week #9 (R/H win).
In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15, then failed to cover at home in week #9 (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14, then failed to cover in week #9 on the road (R/R win).
In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14, then failed to cover in week #10 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14, then covered at home in week #10 (R/H win).
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15, then failed to cover in week #10 on the road (R/R fade win).

“R/H Plays” are 9~4
”R/R Fades” are 6~0

There are 2 such plays coming next week, in week #12.

In week #10 NE lost at TEN by 24 and plays on the road in week #12 (R/R FADE)
In week #10 MIA lost at GB by 19 and plays on the road in week #12 (R/R FADE)

When I first created this system, I was unsure of what to do with bye weeks. The whole premise was based on a team getting embarrassed on the road and then either (A) saving face and covering ATS the next week at home, or (B) getting hammered and losing ATS again on the road the very next week.

Theoretically, having a bye week in between could change things (less so for the “Road / Home Plays”, but more so for the “Road / Road Fades”). The first occurance of the system encountering a bye week delay (TB qualifying for the “R/R” system in week #4, but not playing again until week #6) resulted in a “win” for the system. Was that just a false positive result? We’ll see how the system does with 2 such plays in week #12 and going forward to determine how we handle bye weeks next season.

 

[sds23]

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #11

In week #10 CAR lost at PIT by 31 and plays on the road in week #11 (R/R FADE)

(Play on DET)

 

[sds23]

Week #11 Results:

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #11

In week #10 CAR lost at PIT by 31 and plays on the road in week #11 (R/R FADE) WIN

(Play on DET)

Week #11: 1~0

 

[sds23]

Road Wreck System Record Y.T.D.: 16~4

In week #3 GB lost at WA by 14, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #3 NE lost at DET by 16, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 NYJ lost at JAX by 19, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 MIA lost at NE by 31, then failed to cover in week #5 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #4 BUF lost at GB by 22, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
In week #4 TB lost at CHI by 38, had a bye, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 DEN lost at NYJ by 18, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 ATL lost at PIT by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 OAK lost at LAC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 at home (1st R/H LOSS).
In week #5 WA lost at NO by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
In week #5 IND lost at NE by 14, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #5 JAX lost at KC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15, then failed to cover in week #9 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19, then covered at home in week #9 (R/H win).
In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15, then failed to cover at home in week #9 (R/H LOSS).
In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14, then failed to cover in week #9 on the road (R/R win).
In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14, then failed to cover in week #10 at home (R/H LOSS).
In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14, then covered at home in week #10 (R/H win).
In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15, then failed to cover in week #10 on the road (R/R fade win).
In week #10 CAR lost at PIT by 31, then failed to cover in week #11 on the road (R/R fade win).

“R/H Plays” are 9~4
”R/R Fades” are 7~0

 

[sds23]

Road Wreck System Plays for Week #12

In week #10 NE lost at TEN by 24 and plays on the road in week #12 (R/R FADE)
In week #10 MIA lost at GB by 19 and plays on the road in week #12 (R/R FADE)
In week #11 TEN lost at IND by 28 and plays on the road in week #12 (R/R FADE)

​Plays on NYJ, IND and Hou

 

[sunshine11]

​Go Jets

 

[Serbone]

What about byes... NE & Mia had byes, doesn't that affect the whole thing?
GL!