Playing Blackjack at the casino today ...

[SoCal]

This young kid is alone and getting beat up pretty good. The dealer welcomes me and says "we need help"... I take that as an invitation to sit down and not screw up the kid's rhythm.. We both immed. start winning. I hit a $50 DD for $100 total bet my first hand and I never look back. Table is flowing good.

Some old timer saddles up during the shuffle and at first seems to want third base. Lots of room over there. But no.. he second guesses himself and decides to wedge himself in between me and the kid in a very awkward way where me and the kid have to stand up and move our chairs to let the guy sit.

Cards go to shit instantly. I manage to hold off the dealer a bit better than the kid and before we know it, the kid is on the ropes. While this is goin' on, the old man is saying things out loud like "2"... oh - "that's the worst card we can see the dealer have". I just agree outloud to get him to shut up. i don't want to hear any narration from a guy who just killed the table vibe.

Few minutes later the kid is busted and leaves semi pissed off. rightfully so, I thought... but I still have chips so I am thinkingabout the game again.

10 minutes later I am on the ropes myself. I decide to shove my stack on a one hand Hail Mary and I get dealt a 14 vs dealer 2 showing. Old man has 16 and he turns to me as if to share his agreement that we are both in need of a prayer.. But what does this old fcker do? He says... "2 again"... "worst card a dealer can get for the players"..... and in slow motion... I see him motion for a hit on his 16... I swear to God time stopped and I started to say "you might not want to do that"... but too late.. he draws a face to bust himself and the dealer makes a hand busting me out of the game.

I have played a lot of blackjack in my time. I have seen a lot of idiocy at the tables at inopportune moments. but this will stay with me for awhile. I will not forget this one

 

[bigbet1234]

I feel your pain. Play enough, you see everything. Just have to remember bad play helps you just as much as it hurts. You just remeber the bad beats more vividly. lol

 

[charliepeete]

i quit the game over 15 years ago

just dice now

 

[worldstage]

"Bad play" or whatever you want to call it really isn't relevant. It can just as easily help you as it could hurt you. But I would have walked away the moment he tried to squeeze in.

 

[SmallDaddy]

I hate it too when a stranger sits right next to me, when there are many other seats available.

It happens sometimes so I am wondering is my behavior the odd one, or theirs?

 

[SoCal]

A few replies about how other people's play doesn't affect the outcome. I say, sure, that's true. I have seen idiocy save a table. But there are moments when idiocy is magnified. And this was one of those times.

In fact... when rookie player is sitting next to me and asks for advice on a unique situation... I typically tell them what proper strategy suggests and follow it with , "but do what you want - I don't care"... and I really DON'T care in most situations.

This old guy yesterday literally made me and some other guy stand up and move our chairs to let him sit in between us when third base was open along with the chair next to third base. It was very weird to begin with. And of course this guy had been told somewhere along the line that a dealer 2 showing was ugly. And yes... it is. But for him to hit a 16 vs. a 2 is just absolute trash. People at a table can do what they want of course.. but, please, have a little decency and respect for your fellow player before trashing an all in bet.

 

[trytrytry]

i understand your frustration and I think it helps to share stuff like that especiallly if it can help prevent chasing or tilting and just have some guys listed and chime in.

--------------


but...


Ill skip the buts!

better session next time for you

 

[powerz]

i quit the game over 15 years ago

just dice now

This

 

[LasVegasRealtor]

I've seen people double down on a Blackjack here in Vegas, I couldn't comprehend what was happening.

 

[Hotpizza]

I've seen people double down on a Blackjack here in Vegas, I couldn't comprehend what was happening.

This is becoming more common now. Players are trying to get 2-1 on their wager when it is to their advantage over the paltry 6/5 odds that are offered at some places. 3/2 isn't a bad payout but depending on the situation at hand doubling down is worth it.

Traditional players scoff at this notion but mathematic wise it will be an advantage play and worth making if the situation presents itself properly.

 

[Hotpizza]

socal did you know a dealer showing an upcard of 2 is.......... well a bad card for the players.

Maybe the old fella wanted to be part of the action and sat in the middle of it.

If it was me and the cards changed that much after 3 hands, I get up and go. Down or not, because it is going to get worse and won't get better. I would've wished the younger guy good luck and said time to leave. He may have got the message.

 

[TotalGenious]

I'm interested in a couple of OP's comments above.

A "Table is flowing good" assume this means that the cards being dealt are favorable to you

B "[degen gambler] decides to wedge himself in between me and the kid" assume this means that degen positions himself in a vacant seat between you and someone else

C "Cards go to shit instantly" assume this means that the table is "no longer flowing good"

My question is this, are you implying that A + B somehow predictably impacts C above and if so would "B" above not occurring somehow result in C = A? (meaning no degen = cards continue flowing good)

I'm unclear how a previous pattern of cards combined with a random player (and random playing technique) can have anything other than a random impact on the ultimate outcome?

Please explain as I am in search of a way to corral a hot BJ table at a casino and maximize my edge over the house (without card counting or cheating)

 

[packer2012]

I am sure the simple explaination of this olg guy's choice of seats was...... He was well aware that his skills were suspect. He thought he was showing "respect" (which you said he should).... by not sitting at "third base". That or he was just scared shitless to even play in front of people and made the choise and did not even know why.

I've seen people double down on a Blackjack here in Vegas, I couldn't comprehend what was happening.

If you live in Vegas and look around paying any attention at all, you will see every kind of stuff that will shock, amaze, and make you want to throw-up.


And TotalGenious.... all the things you describe are simply feelings of many low limit players. The guy who started the thread was obviously at a low limit table, had a little luck, and was upset when he gave it all back. Happens thousands of times every day across Vegas.

You see.... people have trouble admitting..... Man I screwed that up.... I don't understand this stuff like I thought I did..... blah, blah, blah. That is why most people don't change their behavior over time. It is not "their" behavior. It is someone else's fault. You can only really be "ahead" when you get up and leave the game. Until you control your own behavior.... nobody can do anything to you..... You are doing it to yourself.

Any sort of weird or dumb-assed behavior is no surprise in the casino. It is to be expected.

 

[TotalGenious]

Packer, what I'm getting at with my question above and what I'm looking for help for is this:

How can I identify and profit from a "hot" blackjack table in a casino?

OP seems to be saying that the fact that Degen inserted himself between OP and some kid and then made some bad plays, somehow changed the order of the cards in a predictable way. He continues with comments like "I have seen a lot of idiocy at the tables at inopportune moments" which seems to imply that had the Degen NOT made his play that OP somehow can predict that "the table vibe" would have stayed the same.

To my uneducated eye, I can't for the life of me see how a random player can do anything but contribute a random outcome to the order of the cards.

My point being, perhaps the cards would have "turned to shit" even if no new players had arrived at the table, or perhaps OP and "the kid" would have continued to win even if Degen had sat and made his bad plays until his stack was gone.

In a nutshell, how is OP able to predict the future order of the cards unless he is either cheating or counting?

 

[packer2012]

TotalGenious.... all the things you describe are simply feelings of many low limit players. The guy who started the thread was obviously at a low limit table, had a little luck, and was upset when he gave it all back. Happens thousands of times every day across Vegas.

You see.... people have trouble admitting..... Man I screwed that up.... I don't understand this stuff like I thought I did..... blah, blah, blah. That is why most people don't change their behavior over time. It is not "their" behavior. It is someone else's fault. You can only really be "ahead" when you get up and leave the game. Until you control your own behavior.... nobody can do anything to you..... You are doing it to yourself.

Any sort of weird or dumb-assed behavior is no surprise in the casino. It is to be expected.

TotalGenious, My comments above are not meant to be critical of low limit players. But by playing for lower limits, the etiquette of the other players is always lacking. People with less experience, or bankroll, naturally prefer lower limits. But they also have less respect for expected norms at the BJ table. Hell, they don't know basic strategy, so can't expect them to have any "Blackjack Manners".

You are right.... hindsight is the only 20/20 perspective. So the lower the limits..... the less experienced the players. Therefore people make more excuses for their own behavior.

I have played hundreds and hundreds of hours of high limit BJ. I assure you that occasionally tables (dealers) do have streaks. People on here argue. These people who never played real big money blackjack. They are just quoting math. Math that is true by computer over the "long run".

But in the short run you try to make the best of these streaks. You asked and…… No people can't predict these streaks.

You do see far fewer players jumping in and out of high limit games. Some games don't allow mid-shoe entry.

All in all, what I guess I’m saying is..... You have to be responsible for your own play. Do the best you can to handle whatever circumstances. Don't let other people’s behavior distract or upset you. If someone makes you uneasy.... just change locations.

 

[TotalGenious]

I was never good at math. However, I want to understand these magical "streaks" that occur. What are they? How do they occur? Are they predictable?

More importantly, why should I care about someone else's play at a table? If the cards they get are random, couldn't BAD play result in a POSITIVE outcome for me?

 

[EverFresh]

TotalG, suggest you check out this link regarding "Gambler's Fallacy": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Some people (no names) are dumb enough to think that a couple of good hands of BJ in a row somehow means that you should increase your bet because the table is "hot"

There are no hot tables, there are no streaks, there is only odds and percentages. Perfect basic strategy will get you about a 49 percent return vs the house, i.e. you will ultimately lose

Sorry to rain on your parade, resume chattering

 

[packer2012]

Hey Ever,

All due respect..... But I must "chatter" for just a second more..... Based on real experience and not just reading math books.....

There are odds and percentages in the LONG RUN.

There are ABSOLUTE streaks. Hot and cold. They may be just four or five hands...... they may continue for an hour. If you don't believe in hot or cold tables..... OK... but that depends on your opinion of how long a lucky run would have to last to be called a hot table. I know we can argue about this forever.... you are talking MATH which is correct and never changes. I am talking short term results which DO absolutely happen, and when combined together over very long periods of time they constitute the math of the game.

A few of us are so proud of our math skills that it blinds us to reality. I fully understand and recognize the math of BJ. Why don't some of us recognize the difference between short term streaks and long term math facts? All math people need to understand short terms variances in studying outcomes.

 

[EverFresh]

Hey Pack, I've got some negative interest bonds I'd love to sell you! You sound like a guy that can appreciate their investment potential!

Who needs math when you've got instinct!

 

[packer2012]

If you ever spend serious hours at a BJ table..... get back to us.

Again...

"A few of us are so proud of our math skills that it blinds us to reality. I fully understand and recognize the math of BJ. Why don't some of us recognize the difference between short term streaks and long term math facts? All math people need to understand short terms variances in studying outcomes."

You must need to get back to teaching class. Lunch break is about over.