Pitchers Off Layoffs

[ChugsMcGee]

Anyone have the record before I go through each page

Check post 96 from a week ago, about a week went without any, around .500 still. I've been on vacation this past week and trying to get caught up at work today but should have time for an update tonight or tomorrow.

Looking at yesterday briefly, I wouldn't have called Nats a play yesterday as they were a large fav. Gonzalez pitched very well in his return against the Tigers, to what looks like an "L" across the board.

So today, as mentioned, Strasburg big favorite returning against the Braves (+210), Over at 8 -120, no TT yet but looking at similar game, be about O3.5 -135. 1st 5 not up but would assume even juicier than the FG.

Also, Mike Leake returns for Cards from 15 day DL for "illness." Right now Pirates at -125. Play/ no play??...I don't know where you want to draw the line on juice. I would think anything under -130 is reasonable. I will use that moving forward unless there are more opinions. Over 8 -120, TT 4 -115, 1st 5 Pirates -130.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Will wait for Braves lineup but definitely think Braves TT is worth a shot here. A number of guys have some good numbers off Strasburg....

Freeman 14-34 .412 avg. 4 HRs, 13 RBIs
Garcia 6-12 .500 avg.
Markakis 5-18 .278 avg.

Plus, Braves have scored 4 runs or more in 8 of their last 9 games.

 

[blackchina]

Check post 96 from a week ago, about a week went without any, around .500 still. I've been on vacation this past week and trying to get caught up at work today but should have time for an update tonight or tomorrow.

Looking at yesterday briefly, I wouldn't have called Nats a play yesterday as they were a large fav. Gonzalez pitched very well in his return against the Tigers, to what looks like an "L" across the board.

So today, as mentioned, Strasburg big favorite returning against the Braves (+210), Over at 8 -120, no TT yet but looking at similar game, be about O3.5 -135. 1st 5 not up but would assume even juicier than the FG.

Also, Mike Leake returns for Cards from 15 day DL for "illness." Right now Pirates at -125. Play/ no play??...I don't know where you want to draw the line on juice. I would think anything under -130 is reasonable. I will use that moving forward unless there are more opinions. Over 8 -120, TT 4 -115, 1st 5 Pirates -130.

sounds good. RL won at least but the bullpen blew them up. Good luck today.

 

[blackchina]

Do you play all first 5, TT, and game for the same units?

 

[blackchina]

Atlanta team total is 3. Wow

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Do you play all first 5, TT, and game for the same units?

I'm not playing full unit on anything as honestly, I'm not sure what we are dealing with yet. I have been playing about half unit on full game, OR 1st 5 depending (TT a couple times), depending on what I like in the game. To give a back story of this thread...Biz started this thread with the statement that he has frequently bet against a returning pitcher coming off a DL trip. Many found it intriguing, including myself, and ideas were thrown out regarding "maybe 1st 5 is better, "Over seems to be hitting a lot, "well what about opposing teams TT"...as there are many other factors to the game rather than simply a pitcher returning.

I've kind of taken over the record keeping and would like to track this into next year to see if something is here along one of the betting options. Right now, its about 50/50 on a returning pitcher performing well or not upon his return but still small sample.

For tonight...I'm leaning Braves 1st 5 as I "trust" Nats BP better than the Braves BP (may play full game still, haven't decided.) TT looks nice at only 3.5 but paying heavy juice over Braves +200+ sucks all the value out of the bet, imo. Probably play Pirates 1st 5 as well simply to isolate the returning pitcher.

Again, still not sure if we got anything valuable yet, but interesting.

 

[Biz]

Check post 96 from a week ago, about a week went without any, around .500 still. I've been on vacation this past week and trying to get caught up at work today but should have time for an update tonight or tomorrow.

Looking at yesterday briefly, I wouldn't have called Nats a play yesterday as they were a large fav. Gonzalez pitched very well in his return against the Tigers, to what looks like an "L" across the board.

So today, as mentioned, Strasburg big favorite returning against the Braves (+210), Over at 8 -120, no TT yet but looking at similar game, be about O3.5 -135. 1st 5 not up but would assume even juicier than the FG.

Also, Mike Leake returns for Cards from 15 day DL for "illness." Right now Pirates at -125. Play/ no play??...I don't know where you want to draw the line on juice. I would think anything under -130 is reasonable. I will use that moving forward unless there are more opinions. Over 8 -120, TT 4 -115, 1st 5 Pirates -130.

Taking a -1.5 on a fav works too. You just don't want to lay a lot of juice. Its a price play. You want to play these games as dogs, or run lines if you are favored. Its also better to play a pitcher off some type of arm injury.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Regular lineup for Braves. Taking a shot with TT o3 -125.

 

[blackchina]

Strasburg out of the game

 

[Biz]

3 innings.

Atlanta up 2-1 as huge dogs

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Record Update: And I'll be adding W/L for RL on FG and 1st 5 for larger favs for these games that applied and moving forward.
From 9/2, Cobb - TB (L, L, O, U, Well), Guerra - MIL (L, L, U, U, PUSH).
From 9/6 - W. Perez - ATL (W, L, O, O, Ham) M. Gonzalez -CHW (L, L, U, U, Well)
9/7 - Strasburg - WAS (L, P, O, O, PUSH) Leake - STL (W, W, U, P, Ham)

Full Game - 8-11
1st 5 - 8-7-4
O/U - 11-8
TT O/U of opposing team - 9-8-2
Ham/Well - 9-8-2

 

[Biz]

We need unit counts with the records, we are dealing with several dogs.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

We need unit counts with the records, we are dealing with several dogs.

Yeah...we don't have that from the beginning so I didn't even try. They should be ~90% dogs for full game and first 5...average of +130 sounds reasonable but its probably higher. The only favorite I can even think was Pirates vs. Leake (bc it was last night and that was a W/W) O/U and TT should average to -110.

With the assumptions above, we'd be looking at:

Full Game - 8-11 -.6u
1st 5 - 8-7-4 +3.4u
O/U - 11-8 +2.2u
TT O/U of opposing team - 9-8-2 +.2u
Ham/Well - 9-8-2

We can try and track accurate prices from here, unless someone wants to backtrack.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Kershaw makes his return tomorrow at Miami after not pitching in 2 1/2 months. I believe he is on a 75 or so pitch count (although that's not confirmed). Only Yelich and Ichiro have any type of success off him.

Colby Lewis comes off the 60 day DL to pitch either Saturday or Sunday at Anaheim and the Angels have tremendous numbers off him.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Kershaw makes his return tomorrow at Miami after not pitching in 2 1/2 months. I believe he is on a 75 or so pitch count (although that's not confirmed). Only Yelich and Ichiro have any type of success off him.

Colby Lewis comes off the 60 day DL to pitch either Saturday or Sunday at Anaheim and the Angels have tremendous numbers off him.

Nice updates, SF!

 

[blackchina]

Fernandez is a beast at home

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Fernandez is a beast at home

I agree. Regardless of Kershaw returning or having pitched all season, Fernandez at home with +$ seems like a lot of value. Per 5 Dimes:

Marlins +123
Marlins 1st 5 +120
O 6.5 -108 (reduced)
Marlins TT O 2.5 -135

 

[Biz]

Great info and also thx for the record updates Chugs

 

[sportsfantatic44]

I agree. Regardless of Kershaw returning or having pitched all season, Fernandez at home with +$ seems like a lot of value. Per 5 Dimes:

Marlins +123
Marlins 1st 5 +120
O 6.5 -108 (reduced)
Marlins TT O 2.5 -135

Fernandez is 10-2 w/1.91 ERA at home this year and is the team is something like 27-2 in Miami when he starts. Definitely worth a shot taking Miami as a dog here tonight.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Just to fast forward and look to Sunday when Lewis is scheduled to return to face the Angels......the Angels have tremendous numbers off him in the past.

Calhoun 14-34 .412 avg.
Cron 7-21 .333 avg.
Pujols 10-33 .312 avg. w/3 HRs.
Simmons 3-6 .500 avg.
Trout 13-35 .371 avg w/4 HRs and 12 RBIs.