Oscar nominees announced! Any early leans?

red007 · Mar 7, 2010

was so busy
just bet these.
no value but they hopefully all win.

1. waltz -2750 to win 1 unit. best sup actor
2. monique -1700 to win 1 unit. best sup actress
3. bridges -950 to win 1 unit. best actor
4. bullock -230 to win 1 unit. best actress
5. tarantino -195 to win 1 unit. best orig screenplay
6. up in air -450 to win 1 unit. best adapted screenplay

never bet screenplay bets before so hope i don't get burned. also i chickened out on betting the first 4 bets to win 5 units each like i have in the past.
still hopefully should be an easy 600 dollar profit.

red007 · Mar 7, 2010

Halifax said:
There's never a "lock" in the Best Foreign Language Film category ... and the odds have gotten considerably better on that film over the last 2 weeks, not a good sign.

My $4K haircut that I took on Pan's Labyrinth at -600 a few years back is a testament to that ... only losing year I ever had betting on the Oscars ... won every other bet, but that $4K was a tough hole to dig out of.

a few years back i bet on amelie to win best foreign film. ebert said it was a lock. 2500 to win 500. brutal loss.
but besides that, its chalk city at oscars.
hope it continues tonight

Soriano12 · Mar 7, 2010

Soriano12 said:
I disagree on that one: "El secreto de sus ojos" is more than just a live dog here. Bet this weeks ago at 16:1, right now something like 5:1 and I can easily picture an upset here.
With Un prophete also in the mix, "The White Ribbon" imo is far from a lock.

trytrytry · Mar 7, 2010

trytrytry said:
lock play at -300 or better

Kathryn Bigelow, ``The Hurt Locker'

now that was an overlay!

red007 · Mar 8, 2010

fucking screenplay bets.
never again.

Halifax · Mar 8, 2010

red007 said:
fucking screenplay bets.
never again.

Yep.

I passed on Original Screenplay, but I got screwed on Up In The Air for Adapted Screenplay ... originally only risked $1,500 on it, but then risked another $2,500 when I thought it was close to a sure thing .... still eked out a few hundred dollars profit overall on the Oscars, but that $4K loss really cut into what could have been a very good night.