Oscar discussion

[jcambert]

But I think that what people are failing to realize is that the plays that I made, I made for value's sake, not necessarily because I thought they had the best chance to win. It's like the old gambling proverb indicating that if you could get +150 on a coin flip, you would jump all over it, right? Well, that doesn't mean that you necesarily think that it is more likely to hit than the other side. It comes down to this.

Do I think that Zellwegger has a better than 16% chance of winning? You bet I do. I would put her chances right now AT LEAST at 40%, maybe higher than that, making this a HUGE overlay.

Do I think that Walker has a better than 10% chance of winning? Nobody would argue that he doesn't. I would put his chances AT LEAST at 30%, and probably higher than that following his SAG and BAFTA wins.

That's all she wrote, folks.

Good luck.

JP

 

[lakerfan]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> But I think that what people are failing to realize is that the plays that I made, I made for value's sake, not necessarily because I thought they had the best chance to win. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I understand completely. The odds you got on a couple of bets were excellent and I would take them in a minute as well.

I was just saying that if you want to lock up some sure money, you might want to consider hedging with some favorites that now have value. But I follow your way of thinking on this. And the more I look at the best actress race, I think hedging would likely be the wrong move as it is wide open and you would have to cover more than just Nicole.

I have enjoyed all your posts and research on the Oscars.

All the best this weekend - lakerfan

 

[jcambert]

Thanks, Lakerfan. This is what these boards should be about. Constructive discussions, with the purpose of helping each other WIN, WIN, WIN.

JP

 

[boar]

This year's race has definitely been much quieter punting wise.
I personally find it hard to see why Kidman is favourite considering
she has only won the Golden Globe , who did vote for The Hours as Best
Drama, and the BAFTAS which surely cant be treated as a serious guide
to Oscar after such a short time in their new position in the calendar and quite frankly their rather insular approach. IMHO Zellweger must be the frontrunner considering the amazing
confidence in Chicago. But I agree that the category is not a 2 horse race.
Walken must also have a decent show given the sheer nos of the SAGS.
The SAG's are essentially a decent opinion poll - they amy not lead
to ultimate Oscar glory but they definitely highlighted several Oscar winners who people may have looked over in recent years. Helen Hunt, Roberto Ben, Michael Caine and Halle Berry were all decent prices before the SAG's while it's hard to imagine any SAG winner not being involved in the shakeup come Oscar night given the size of the SAG.

 

[Oren1]

hmmm.. I didn't see Catch Me if You Can, but I thought Cooper did a great job in Adaptation... Do you guys think Walker's performance was comparable?

 

[lakerfan]

NICE JOB jcambert

Clearing over $1300. Well done.

 

[jcambert]

Thank you, sir. And, did anyone else get the sense, right after Brody won for Best Actor, The Pianist won for best screenplay and Polanski won for best Director, that we were going to witness the greatest upset in Oscar history?

After the Screenplay award, I turned to my girlfriend and told her that, if Polanski found a way to pull it out, which was still unlikely, The Pianist might just win Best Picture. Well, I was wrong, but, could you imagine?

JP

 

[Oren1]

heh, yeah I was thinking the same thing, although was rooting for The Two Towers to turn my $5 into $100, lol. I also had a small play on Brody after looking at one of the Oscar prediction websites, which pegged him to win at the last minute... wonder how they knew.

As for the Razzies, I hope not too many people followed me on the Britney Spears picks, shoulda gone with the early favorites. Coulda banked on Madonna. I thought the arguments for Spears winning were substantive, though. I overannalyzed it though, it was Madonna all the way. Sorry!