Ok, guys, time to talk some more oscar. Best picture seems to be all but locked up for Chicago, but, can the Pianist or The Hours play spoiler here? What does everyone think the chance (in the form of a percentage), of each of these films winning best picture? I would put Chicago right now at about 65%, The Hours aat about 25% and the Pianist at about 10%, with neither of the two remaining films having any real shot whatsoever. This means that, in playing the percentages, if you can find somewhere that has the Pianist at better than 9/1 (there are plenty of places out there), or the Hours at better than 3/1, it's worth taking a shot. Any thoughts?
As for Best Actor, I am seeing this race as a very, very close one to call with the top three combatants (Jack, Day Lewis and Brody), all about tied right now. I know with Jack, you can get better than even money, and with Brody, you can do even better than that. I would be inclined to take a shot with Adrian Brody right now, as they hype and buzz are building for him and his film, at EXACTLY the right time. Both Jack and Daniel have a couple of things working against them. Day Lewis is playing a "bad guy" and, traditionally, these characters just aren't conducive to winning this award (I know that Denzel won last year and the Cannibal won a few years ago). As for Jack, he has already "been there and done that" and, he's playing an old dude. I think that Brody has a real shot here, and, with the value in that selection, it's going to be difficult to pass up.
As for best actress, Kidman is the clear cut front runner right now, but, I see a possible slip up in the works, and, if so, I think Julianne Moore can steal the top prize here. I see this award with Kidman having about a 50% chance of winning it, Moore having about a 35% chance of winning it and Zellwegger with about a 10 percent chance, with the two remaining ladies splitting that last 5%.
For best supporting actor, it's clearly Cooper's prize to lose and I don't know that anyone else has any chance in this category.
For best supporting actress, I'm seeing another very, very close race between Zeta Jones, Moore and Streep. I think that if the top prize goes to Kidman (which it very well might, and probably will), I see Moore here taking the prize, as she was wonderful in both of her roles (The HOurs and Far from Heaven). But, I think that, as of right now, Zeta Jones probably is the bet, in terms of value, as she can be had right around 2/1 odds.
I want everyone's thoughts on these. Any opinions?
JP
As for Best Actor, I am seeing this race as a very, very close one to call with the top three combatants (Jack, Day Lewis and Brody), all about tied right now. I know with Jack, you can get better than even money, and with Brody, you can do even better than that. I would be inclined to take a shot with Adrian Brody right now, as they hype and buzz are building for him and his film, at EXACTLY the right time. Both Jack and Daniel have a couple of things working against them. Day Lewis is playing a "bad guy" and, traditionally, these characters just aren't conducive to winning this award (I know that Denzel won last year and the Cannibal won a few years ago). As for Jack, he has already "been there and done that" and, he's playing an old dude. I think that Brody has a real shot here, and, with the value in that selection, it's going to be difficult to pass up.
As for best actress, Kidman is the clear cut front runner right now, but, I see a possible slip up in the works, and, if so, I think Julianne Moore can steal the top prize here. I see this award with Kidman having about a 50% chance of winning it, Moore having about a 35% chance of winning it and Zellwegger with about a 10 percent chance, with the two remaining ladies splitting that last 5%.
For best supporting actor, it's clearly Cooper's prize to lose and I don't know that anyone else has any chance in this category.
For best supporting actress, I'm seeing another very, very close race between Zeta Jones, Moore and Streep. I think that if the top prize goes to Kidman (which it very well might, and probably will), I see Moore here taking the prize, as she was wonderful in both of her roles (The HOurs and Far from Heaven). But, I think that, as of right now, Zeta Jones probably is the bet, in terms of value, as she can be had right around 2/1 odds.
I want everyone's thoughts on these. Any opinions?
JP
