On The Hop's 2011 MLB Picks

[OnTheHop]

6/24/2011 (56-77-1 -16.51 units of measurement)

Tying ain't losing. I believe Ricky Bobby said that.

Washington Nationals +110: I'm riding the Jordan Zimmerman train until it derails. Nats have been on fire lately and Edwin Jackson has not. Fernando Tatis really crushing the ball right now.
Chicago Cubs -102: Once April passed Ryan Dempster started throwing it very well. Bruce Chen is still Bruce Chen. Royals bats have gone quiet. Leon Durham hitting well and looking good in his specs.
Tampa Bay Rays/Houston Astros under 7 -115: Has there been a better pitcher this year than James Shields? Has anyone been hotter than Wandy Rodriguez? Neither team is the '27 Yankees with the bats. Tino Martinez not producing and Mike Scott is tossing heat.
Toronto Blue Jays -104: Brandon Morrow is so much better away from home. Jake Westbrook is so much better than....um....me. Need the Blue Jay bats to wake up and Westbrook could be the alarm clock. Damaso Garcia showing good wheels on the basepaths and flashing the leather.

 

[Kazmania]

Ricky Bobby said " Either you are first or your last"

 

[OnTheHop]

6/27/2011 (60-77-1 -12.39 units of measurement)

Kaz, you are correct. "If you ain't first, you're last." I was joking around...sounded like something he would say. Here we go again:

Tampa Bay Rays -137: Reds are not hitting. Jeremy Hellickson is undervalued due to 3 losses in a row but only one of them has been a bad outing. Mike Leake is not bad at all but with the Reds recent struggles I'll take the home team coming off a two touchdown performance yesterday. Greg Vaughn has started to come around for the Devil Rays...I mean Rays.
Minnesota Twins -117: The Twins have lost 6 in a row...on the road. They have to be happy to be home. Nick Blackburn has been very good since April. Chad Billingsley has not pitched well and has been especially bad on the road. If needed, Frank Viola can likely throw a few innings tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/28/2011 (60-79-1 -14.91 things)

I played two games yesterday and those teams lost by a combined score of 20-0. That is hard to do. I should get bonus points for that.

Everything I look at today confuses me so I'll take a pass.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/29/2011 (60-81-1 -17.43 things of measurement)

Washington Nationals +132: I know Dan Haren has been good but as I said before I'm on the Jordan Zimmerman train until it derails. This game feels like 1-0 or 2-1 (which means 8-7). Zimmerman has to rely on the expertise of Gary Carter behind the dish.
Philadelphia Phillies -110: Vance Worley has been good enough for the Phillies. John Lackey has been an absolute disaster. If I can get the home team at a small number against a guy who is really struggling right now I feel compelled to take it. Worley should just throw everything Mike Lieberthal calls tonight. The guy is an absolute wizard at calling a game.
Milwaukee Brewers/New York Yankees u9 +105: Shawn Marcum has been as good as almost any pitcher in baseball this year. A.J. Burnett is pitching well because he pitches well in every odd numbered year. If we get to the bullpens Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage will shut things down.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/2/2011 (62-83-1 -16.39 things of measurement)

Minnesota Twins +103: Backing Carl Pavano is somewhat frightning. However when you look closely he's been pretty darn good at home. On the other hand the Brewers have been less than pretty darn good on the road. The Twins are 11-2 in their last 13 at home. Tom Brunansky swinging a hot stick for the home team.
Chicago White Sox +102: Wow. Phil Humber at plus money. Again? Really? OK, I'll take it. Ron LeFlore really showing some good wheels for the boys from the South Side.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/3/2011 (63-84-1 -16.35 things of measurement)

Perfect. Twins up 7-0 and 7-4 going to the 9th and blow it. Just perfect. Sitting today out waiting for interleague to be over.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/4/2011 (63-84-1 -16.35 things of measurement)

Happy Birthday America! Thank you to all of the brave men and women in our Armed Forces who help us keep the freedom we value so dearly.

Houston Astros +119: Brett Myers seems to have turned things around lately. Paul Maholm has been good but his road starts have not been nearly as good as his home starts. Astros hung with Boston most of the weekend and will take out their frustrations on Pittsburgh today. Hopefully Jose Cruz continues his hot hitting for the Stros.
St. Louis Cardinals -117: Cris Carpenter has looked like the Carpenter of old in his last few starts. Johnny Cueto has certainly been good but other than the Yankees has not exactly faced Murderer's Row. Also, I have to go with a great baseball city like St. Louis on this great American holiday. Vince Coleman tearing up the basepaths for the Redbirds lately.
Colorado Rockies +120: Ubaldo Jimenez has been ridiculous away from home. Tommy Hunter has been ridiculous anywhere on planet Earth. When the two pitchers are this evenly matched and the two lineups are this evenly matched I'll take the plus money. Dante Bichette still tearing the cover off the ball for the Rocks.
Toronto Blue Jays +130: Brandon Morrow's splits are bizarre. On the road he's Cy Young and at home he's a beer league softball pitcher. John Lackey has struggled all year. One good start against the Phillies is not enough to convince me he's fixed. I'll grab the better pitcher for plus money even though the Red Sox have the more powerful bats. Morrow would be wise to listen to his veteran C Ernie Whitt and throw whatever he calls.

 

[OnTheHop]

Could I be a bigger moron? Pirates at home today. No wonder I am down so big.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/7/2011 (65-85-1 -16.03 things of measurement)

Just cannot get a feel for anything in the last few days. No reason to force. Will take another look later (so you all know what to fade!!!).

 

[OnTheHop]

7/9/2011 (65-85-1 -16.03 things of measurement)

Atlanta Braves +147: Cliff Lee has been fantastic since the beginning of June (except for his last outing). Tommy Hanson has been downright dominant all season. Phillies are definitely the better hitting team but at this price in what should be a tight, low scoring game I have to take the big plus money. Braves will need Dale Murphy's bat to get hot to win this one.
Colorado Rockies -113: At home Ubaldo Jimenez has been a beer league softball pitcher. On the road he has been his dominant self. The Nats have been playing pretty good ball lately but I'll still take a dominant pitcher against a young lineup. Larry Walker should find the dimensions at the Nats ballpark to his liking.
Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates o8+105: Ryan Dempster has been a disaster on the road. Kevin Correia has been a disaster at home. Ryne Sandberg swinging a hot bat for the Cubbies, Bill Madlock raking for the Buccos.
Cleveland Indians -105: Taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks and then winning on a walk off GS this Indians team is on a roll. Brandon Morrow has been very good on the road but Josh Tomlin has been every bit his equal both at home and on the road. At this price I'll take the team with momentum and hope that Joe Carter's bat will carry the Tribe to victory.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/10/2011 (68-86-1 -13.55 things of measurement)

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +160: Paul Maholm has been downright filthy at home. Ramon Ortiz has been downright awful at AAA. Pirates need this one to have good momentum going to the break and continue to be one of the best stories of the first half. Look for Kent Tekulve to come in and close this one down for the Bucs.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/14/2011 (69-86-1 -11.95 things of measurement)

Just updating my still miserable record. Nothing looks good tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/16/2011 (69-86-1 -11.95 things of measurement)

Backing 3 reclamation project pitchers that no one in their right mind should support. Good times!!

San Francisco Giants +123: It's difficult to say this but Barry Zito has been very good since coming back from the DL. Rookie Corey Luebke has been very good for the Padres but in limited action. With two teams with light hitting offenses I'll take the team getting plus money. Chili Davis swinging a hot stick for the Giants.
Minnesota Twins 1st 5 -135: Carl Pavano has things back on the right track for a Twins squad that has been hot recently. Jeff Francis started out strong but realized he is.....Jeff Francis. The only thing that worries me is the Twins bullpen so I'll play the first half and hope for a lead. Mickey Hatcher really raking for the Twins in recent weeks.
Florida Marlins -101: Javy Vazquez seems to have figured it out recently. Carlos Zambrano coming back from the DL won't be left out there to throw too many pitches. Combine that with the disaster known as the Cubs bullpen and I'll take the Fish. The big bat of Gary Sheffield should help the Marlins today.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/17/2011 (71-87-1 -10.95 things of measurement)

I actually took Barry Zito yesterday. What is wrong with me? Trying something a little different today in addition to the regular picks.

San Francisco Giants +102: Matt Cain has been his usual excellent self. Mat Latos spells his name funny and has been up and down all year. Surprisingly the Giants bullpen has been better than the Padres pen recently. Playing against a Padres team that usually can't put up runs (last night excluded) I'll take the better hitting team at plus money. Kevin Mitchell's bat could be the difference maker today.
Milwaukee Brewers -107: Shawn Marcum has been filthy all season. Aaron Cook has not. Brew Crew know they are in a battle for the division and the bats seem to have woken up a little bit lately. It's good having slick fielding Jim Gantner in the field to support the pitching staff.
Pittsburgh Pirates +118: All that stuff I wrote above about the Giants applies here. Kevin Correia has been good, especially on the road. Wandy Rodriguez has been good at home. I have to take the better hitting team at plus money with the better pen. Pirates are also in a pennant race. Astros are in a race to see who will get traded to a contender. Correia would be wise to throw whatever Mike Lavalliere calls as the guy is a game calling wizard.
St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds NO Score in 1st inning -105: Can anyone really hit Joaquin Andujar or Mario Soto?
Milwaukee Brewers/Colorado Rockies NO Score in 1st inning +105: Have you seen the way Cal Eldred and Bret Saberhagen are bringing it?

 

[OnTheHop]

7/19/2011 (76-87-1 -5.67 things of measurement)

That's more like it. Of course I think I found something with the no score in the 1st inning and my site is undergoing an overhaul and they're not offering it anymore or I can't find it. Perfect.

Pittsburgh Pirates +105: James McDonald is slowly but surely putting things together. Mike Leake seems to have hit the same wall he hit last year and I question how effective he will be. Pirates have all the momentum and there are actually people showing up to watch the first place Pirates. Sid Bream's bat is the difference maker in this one.
Oakland Athletics +127: Am I the only one who has caught on to the dominance that is Guillermo Moscoso? Most people would think that the other guy with all the O's in his name, Rick Porcello would be the better pitcher. Not true. Porcello's recent outings have not been good. Combine that with a questionable Detroit pen and I'll take the plus money. Does anyone play the hot corner better than Carney Lansford?
Florida Marlins -1.5 +155: Anibal Sanchez and Tim Stauffer are evenly matched. Here's the difference: the Padres usually reliable pen has been far from reliable recently. Also the Marlins bats have been nuclear. Looking for the momentum to continue and for the Fish to win by a few. Jeff Conine has been leading the tear for the Marlins and it should continue tonight.
Baltimore Orioles +103: Jeremy Guthrie has been his usual decent self and is probably looking to showcase his skills with the hope of being moved at the trade deadline to a contender. The Red Sox go with Kyle Weiland who has all of one start this year getting hit pretty good at Fenway by Baltimore. He was bailed out by the Red Sox bullpen. Tonight I'm not sure the Red Sox bullpen is ready to go after the marathon with Tampa and then last night's slugfest with the O's. If necessary the Orioles will look to the hot bat and great glove of Brady Anderson to get them over the hump.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/20/2011 (78-89-1 -5.57 things of measurement)

Two early games, will look at late games if time allows.

Boston Red Sox -128: When you can get the Red Sox at a low number like this when they are trying to win a series, you need to take it. Andrew Miller has been serviceable for the Sox. Jake Arrieta started out hot for the Orioles but has faltered recently. Sox have the bullpen and hitting advantage. Looking for Rich Gedman to work with the youngster Miller and help him throw a quality game.
Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates u7 EVEN: Johnny Cueto is flat out filthy right now. Jeff Karstens has been good and very good at home. Reds are resting a few of their starters and the Pirates may as well for this getaway day. Mario Soto and Tim Wakefield are both dealing right now and will keep this a low scoring affair.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/21/2011 (80-89-1 -3.57 things of measurement)

Slowly creeping my way back to respectability.....until I screw it up.

Seattle Mariners +136: This is a value play. I get Felix Hernandez at plus money against John Lackey who has been a disaster all year. The hope is that King Felix is his normal dominant self and Lackey gives up a few runs. Look for Alvin Davis to bring the big lumber for the Mariners.
Tampa Bay Rays -105: Wade Davis versus Luke Hocheaver is a push. The bullpen is a slight advantage for the Rays. The lineups (with the Rays on the road) are a push. Just a gut feeling that last night's win over the Yankees gave the Rays some momentum. They feel like they are still in the WC race and I anticipate them playing with a true sense of urgency tonight. Randy Winn's wheels on the bases should be a big boost for the Rays.
St. Louis Cardinals/Pittsburgh Pirates u 7 1/2 -110: Cris Carpenter has been the Cris Carpenter of old over his last few starts. Paul Maholm has been good all season and great at home. Neither team is really hitting right now. The bullpens do concern me so hopefully the starters go deep in this one. Joaquin Andujar and Jason Schmidt have been throwing bb's and will keep this a low scoring affair.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1 1/2 +120: Daniel Hudson has been dominant since May. Aaron Cook has thrown underhand most of the year. No Carlos Gonzalez for the Rockies tonight limits their offensive production and the Diamondbacks bats really seem to be clicking. Look for Luis Gonzalez to put up big numbers tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

7/22/2011 (80-93-1 -8.13 things of measurement)

Wow. When I suck, I really suck. I was due for one of those ass kickings. Let's see if I can straighten things out today.

Houston Astros +107: Getting plus money against Randy Wells even with the Astros is a gift. Wandy Rodriguez certainly has the stuff to hold the Cubs down and could be pitching to showcase himself in a trade. Stros bullpen has been very good recently. Cubs bullpen has not. Hoping the hot hitting of Terry Puhl helps the Astros today.
Chicago White Sox -108: The White Sox know it's time to make a run. Edwin Jackson has been very good recently. David Huff had a good start in his return to the big leagues but that's not his typical pattern. Neither team really tearing the cover off the ball. The difference? Sox pen has been dramatically better than the Tribe's. Feeling a monster game from Steve Sax...as long as he doesn't have to throw to first base.
New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Parlay 2 to win 2: Hard to go against either of these squads today but also tough to pay the juice. Looking for Dave Righetti and Raul Cormier to continue throwing darts for their respective teams.

 

[OnTheHop]

Way to f--k up a nice comeback!!! When things go bad like this I have promised myself I will dial it down and only pick games I really like. I don't see anything that excites me although if I were playing I would go w/Cleveland and Mn/Tx over....let's see how that turns out.

7/25/2011 (80-95-1 -11.13 stuff)

NO PLAYS TONIGHT