On The Hop's 2011 MLB Picks

[OnTheHop]

Toronto almost found a way to gag that one away. Wow.

5/29/11 (37-59-1 -19.13)

Baltimore Orioles -103: In a battle of young pitchers have to go with the more established Britton who has thrown very well for the O's. O's looking to avoid the sweep. Mark Belanger showing his range lately.
Philadelphia Phillies +101: This has sucker bet written all over it. Every stat favors the Phillies and at + money. I'll take it!!! Someone make sure Bake McBride gets to the game on time today.
Florida Marlins +117: Hard to go against Kershaw at home but the Marlins are hot right now and Nolasco has been filthy this year. Orestes Destrade will come through in the clutch.
Parlay: Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers RL, Atlanta Braves 1 to win 4.44: I'm not a degenerate, I'm not a degenerate, I'm not a degenerate.......

 

[MikeyHoops]

love the write-ups goodluck

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks Mikey. Humor is always good when it has been this big of a disaster.

I know many of you look at this as a good fade and at least I am providing that service!!!

Have to take today off as yesterday's train wreck was just too much for me. Maybe something for you to fade tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

Like I was going to stay away all day. Love to keep making donations:

5/30/2011 (37-63-1 -23.23 U)

Seattle Mariners -118: After the O's collapsed yesterday this is almost a mandatory play today. Fister has been good enough at home and until they got shut down by one of the best, CC, the M's bats were alive and they are playing with a ton of confidence. Also thinking today is the day Edgar and Tino Martinez do some damage.

San Francisco Giants +142: I refuse to believe McClellan can continue to be this good. Bumgarner has had some tough luck and is due for some run support. Jeff Kent had a very cool mustache.

Los Angeles Dodgers -115: Billingsley has been good at home. The Rockies have struggled with righties this year. Dodgers bats seem to have woken up yesterday against Nolasco. Steve Yeager calls a great game.

Boston Red Sox RL +105: At first glance Peavy's stats look good. Looking deeper he's had one good start. The White Sox can't get going and Lester is really dealing right now. Nomar seems to have his batting gloves tightened properly and his head on straight.

 

[OnTheHop]

Quite a few that I like today. NEVER a good sign. EVER.

5/31/2011 (40-64-1 -20.79 U)

Milwaukee Brewers -125: Greinke's ERA should be much better based on his WHIP and other cool baseball stats. Gorman Thomas expected to play tonight after beer drinking injury.
Seattle Mariners -135: Bedard has been filthy lately and M's bats are producing. O's are in disarray and want to get off the West Coast. Dan Wilson calls a nice game.
Seattle Mariners RL +170: See above. Although I don't know how much Wilson's game calling will help in this one, Jay Buhner's bat will help.
Chicago White Sox 1st 5 +155: Humber has been so good. Have to try it at this price, especially taking the pens out of the equation. Look for Harold Baines to pepper the Monster all night.
Houston Astros +157: Have to try the rookie Lyles against the gas can Zambrano at this price. Fully expect Craig Biggio back in the lineup after the pine tar/helmet incident.
San Diego Padres +109: Padres have momentum and an undervalued Latos against Minor who has not been good....ever. Look for Kurt Bevacqua to be the difference maker.

 

[HacheMan]

Good luck tonight

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks Hache...finally had a good night. Would you mind stopping by and wishing me luck every night???? Not that I am a supersitious mess or anything.

6/1/2011 (45-65-1 -15.59 U)

Milwaukee Brewers -105: Marcum has come back from his bad outings with good ones. Leake has shoplifted from department stores. Rollie Fingers available in case there is trouble.
Baltimore Orioles +153: I know I have been crushing the O's the last few days but they've been close. Matusz was very, very good last year and hard to pass at this price. Also, if all else fails, Boog Powell ready with a bat and BBQ tongs.
New York Yankees +104: I have a feeling I may be late to the "Yanks at + money" train. But, they seem to have figured out a lineup against lefties. Now, no one tell Burnett it's no longer May and we'll be fine. Looking for Bobby Mecham to continue his spectacular defensive play for the Bombers.
Arizona Diamondbacks RL +130: Hudson...good. Vazquez....not so much. D'Backs bats have been hot enough to cover the RL. Tony Womack showing fantastic speed on the basepaths.

 

[OnTheHop]

Small win is better than any kind of loss.

6/2/2011 (47-67-1 -15.07 U)

San Diego Padres -123, 2 units: Stauffer has had 2 bad starts, at Arizona and at Milwaukee. Astros bats do not compare to either. Norris (Bud, not Chuck) has not been very good away from Minute Maid. Looking to get a little help from running Rickey Henderson even though he is getting up in years at this point.

 

[OnTheHop]

Well, that sucked. Padres were never in it. Oh well.

Nothing today jumping out at me and no need to force a play.

 

[OnTheHop]

The games I liked and didn't play yesterday were winners. Of course.

6/4/2011 (47-67-1 -15.07 U)

San Francisco Giants EVEN: Chacin has been good but lately Bumgarner has been better. I'll take him even at home. JT Snow swinging a hot bat for the Giants puts it over the top.
Minnesota Twins +135: Blackburn hasn't been terrible his last few starts and Hochevar should not be favored by that much over anyone. Look for Dan Gladden to come up big in this contest.
Washington Nationals 1st 5 +135: Just like above, Hernandez has been pretty good lately and Saunders should not be favored by that much over anyone. DBacks magic seems to come late so I'll try and eliminate that problem by going first 5 only. Nats bringing former Expo Marquis Grissom back to pinch run.
Tampa Bay Rays -135: Rays need this one to stop the slide and no one threw it better than Hellickson in May. Looking for Wade Boggs to make out with home plate in this crucial contest (wow..what an obscure reference to his 3,000th hit).
Atlanta Braves -117: Gee has been good for the Mets...against inferior competition. Jurrjens has been lights out and Braves bats really coming around. Bruce Benedict has been fantastic calling games for the young Braves staff.

 

[sherwood]

Good luck OTH. Funny stuff, best of luck and don't lose the sense of humor. Nats are tempting indeed. They seem to do well at this park. Danny Espinoza is so f**king good it's scary. However, whenever I bet Hernandez he gives up 8 runs in two innings. Hopefully that doesn't happen to you.

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks Sherwood. Love your writeups and analysis as well.

Nothing for me today....a little too high of a price on Bedard and I just can't pull the trigger on Lyles. If he wasn't facing Latos I would be all over it but Latos is starting to throw like he should.

 

[OnTheHop]

And sometimes it goes your way when you don't pull the trigger. Again, nothing for me tonight. Like Matusz a little bit but reading Sherwood's write up has me backing off. Going to sit on my deficit for another day and hopefully something looks good tomorrow.

Good thing I let all of you know I didn't have any plays. I know you were all waiting anxiously for more of my gems (yes, that was complete and total sarcasm).

 

[OnTheHop]

6/7/2011 (47-67-1 -15.07 U)

Chicago White Sox +106: I've been riding the Humber train all year. A little scary against King Felix but I have to keep going with what is working (and not a lot is working). Really looking for Ron Kittle to contribute tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks -116: Letdown situation for a Pirates team that hasn't been good at home with a pitcher going that hasn't been good at home. Hudson has been fantastic. Even with his last bad outing once he settled down he looked very good. Mark Grace starting to come out of his funk for the DBacks.
Washington Nationals +124: A good pitcher against the Giants w/out Posey at plus money. I'll try it. Zimmerman has been downright dominant in the vast majority of his starts. If the Nats can figure out a way to put up 4 runs or so I like their chances. If all else fails they'll bring back Alfonso Soriano to pinch hit (hey...it's hard going old school on a team with no history but look it up, he played there).
New York Yankees +115: Yankees plus money at home against Lester who has not been his normal self. Garcia made one mistake last time these two teams met and it was after a questionable call by the home plate umpire. Not sure if we'll see Graeme Lloyd come out of the pen to face Big Papi or not.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/8/2011 (49--69-1 -14.91 U)

A winning day is a winning day. I'll take it.

San Diego Padres -101: Even money against the Rockies on the road with a pitcher who has quietly been very very good this year in Moseley. I'll take it. Looking for Steve Garvey to get it going for the Pads today.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/11/2011 (49-70-1 -15.91 U)

It's tough to be 21 games under .500 in baseball when you mainly play favorites but somehow I've figured out how to do it!!!

Arizona Diamondbacks -121: Ian Kennedy has been very, very good and especially so on the road. Javy Vazquez has been very, very bad and especially so anywhere on Planet Earth. Looking for Kennedy to follow great outings by the Big Unit and Curt Schilling with one of his own.
Milwaukee Brewers -124: Spring Training is over for Zach Greinke. He's looked dialed in recently. Cris Carpenter is still getting too much love based on his history. Brewers have been very tough at home this year. Looking for Gorman Thomas to go deep at least once today.
Boston Red Sox +108: Red Sox are 6-1 this year as a dog. John Lackey looked to have things straightened out last time out. Brandon Morrow is good but not dominant and the Red Sox bats have been on fire lately...not literally, that wouldn't be good. Rich Gedman calls a fantastic game for Red Sox pitchers.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/12/2011 (52-70-1 -12.83 U)

It seems the world has caught up to my "Play Humber at + money trick." Damn.

Baltimore Orioles -121: Brian Matusz has excellent stuff and there's no reason that changes today. Wade Davis does not. Orioles bats have been good lately and I'll take them at home. Delino DeShields should spark the running game for the O's.
Minnesota Twins +110: Don't look now but the Twins have been playing good ball lately. Francisco Liriano showcasing his stuff to try and get traded to a contender. Kent Hrbek showing a good power stroke and flashing the leather at first base in recent games.
Pittsburgh Pirates -111: Kevin Correia has usually done just enough to get a win. Chris Capuano has usually done just enough to take a loss. Can someone explain why the Pirates went away from the old school yellow and black flat top hats? No chance on the basepaths today for the Mets against Tony Pena.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/18/2011 (53-72-1 -14.03 U)

Took some time off as nothing looked right. Let's see what happens today.

Cincinnati Reds -126: Volquez has been good since his recall. Morrow has not been very good all year. Reds tend to play well at home, at night, against rh's. Looking for something special from the bullpen, specifically Rob Dibble.
Minnesota Twins -137: Twins are as hot as anyone. Baker pitching well lately and the return of Mauer should spark the bats enough against a light hitting Padre squad. Tom Brunansky has been on a tear lately.
Los Angeles Angels -126: Haren and the better hitting team against Pelfrey and the not exactly scorching bats of the Mets. Mets struggle w/rh's. Doug DeCinces swinging a hot bat for the Halos.
Arizona Diamondbacks EVEN: Danks is probably better than Duke but not on the road. His road starts have not been pretty. DBacks have the better hitters and are tough at home. Matt Williams continues his slick fielding and dialed in hitting.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/20/2011 (54-75-1 -16.59 Units of Measurement)

Play 3 favorites and one at even money and 3 of 4 lose? Could I suck worse?

Colorado Rockies +106: Fausto Carmona should not be favored over anyone. Rockies throw Juan Nicasio who has been more than serviceable filling in for Jorge De La Rosa. Indians overvalued after beating up on an overvalued Pirates team. Look for Eric Young (senior not junior) to tear up the basepaths for the Rockies.
New York Yankees +107: Ivan Nova has been very good on the road for the Yankees. Johnny Cueto has been very good at home for the Reds. Yankees bats have been much hotter than the Reds and I'll take the Yanks at plus money when I can. Andre Robertson has been flashing the leather in the field for the Bombers.
Toronto Blue Jays +109: Ricky Romero has filthy stuff and has done a good job against some very tough lineups. Tim Hudson is starting to fade and has not exactly faced Murder's Row. Braves bats have been awfully quiet lately. Jesse Barfield just waiting to show off that cannon of an arm in RF for the Jays.

 

[OnTheHop]

6/23/2011 (55-76-1 -16.51 Units of Measurement)

These are as square as they come but I can't pass them.

Philadelphia Phillies EVEN: Oswalt has been alternating wins and losses. I'm not great at math but that alone tells me he has to win tonight. Carpenter being valued on reputation not performance. Phillies on a roll, at even money, I'll try it. Look for Mickey Morandini to see the field tonight at 5 different positions.
Arizona Diamondbacks -107: This one seems too easy. So it's probably a loser. Hudson has been very dominant for the last few months. Paulino shows good numbers but I'm not overly impressed with the competition. Byung Hung-Kim seems to have figured out a few things and has been a shut down closer recently.