NFL Prop Bets===Master List

[MAGAking1]

CeeDee Lamb Any Time Touchdown (+125)​

The Dallas Cowboys have a juicy 26.00 implied team total this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars and we should see some scoring.

This game features a solid 48.0-point over/under and a close 4.0-point spread, which means we should be in for a bit of back-and-forth action. We should be targeting player props that will reflect the scoring potential and that means going to CeeDee Lamb any time touchdown at +125.

Lamb comes in with a team-high 28.9% target share, 36.9% air yards share, 10.2 average depth of target (aDOT), while running a route on 90.6% of drop backs. Those are elite numbers across the board and being the favorite target of Dak Prescott will continuously put him in a great spot.

When it comes to the matchup against the Jaguars, Lamb should be licking his chops. While the Jaguars have allowed a modest 1,996 receiving yards to wide receivers, which is 17th in the league, they have allowed the third-most (16) receiving touchdowns.

Lamb has only one touchdown over his last four games and with the large role he plays in the Cowboys' passing attack, he should find some positive touchdown regression with this favorable matchup in front of him.

Mike Willams Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-114)​

When it comes to the Los Angeles Chargers, they love to pass the ball.

The Chargers are another offense with a high implied team total (24.75) and it points us in a very clear direction for some player props this week. They also have an incredibly soft matchup for their passing game, which they lean on in every situation.

To this point in the season, the Chargers have a big 66.82% pass play percentage, which is the second-highest in the league. Over the last three weeks, that rate has risen to 73.15%, putting them as the highest team in the league. They pass the ball early and often and it puts their pass catchers in a spot to exceed their prop totals quickly.

When it comes to their matchup against the Tennessee Titans, it couldn't be better. The Titans have allowed the second-most (3,688) passing yards to quarterbacks this season and the second-most (2,488) receiving yards to wide receivers. They are, arguably, the worst pass defense in the league and now face an offense set on passing the ball on almost every play.

When it comes to Mike Williams, he returned last week from his ankle injury and went for an eye-popping 116 yards, 6 receptions, and a touchdown. He's looking back in top form and although he only has a 17.6% target share this season, he's played in only nine games.

However, if we look a bit further we see he has a 34% air yards share, averaging 88.1 air yards per game, with a 12.0 aDOT, while running a route on 75.1% of drop backs. tw

His big-play ability will put him in a great spot against a very weak defense to hit the over on 64.5 yards.

Joe Burrow Under 270.5 Passing Yards (-114)​

Lastly, I'm going with Joe Burrow under 274.5 passing yards this week.

There's no doubt Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback but this is certainly a tough matchup for him against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We've also seen the Cincinnati Bengals' offense change a bit in the last few weeks, so let's jump in.

The Buccaneers continue to boast a strong defense and have allowed the sixth-fewest (2,539) passing yards this season, which is good for just 195.3 yards per game. They keep the opposing quarterbacks under wraps this year so much so that just a single opponent -- Geno Smith with 275 yards in Week 10 -- has gone over the passing prop this season.

When it comes to the Bengals' offense, they have been passing the ball less in recent games. For the entire year, they have a 60.66% pass play percentage, putting them as the 12th highest in the league. That has dropped to 54.40% over the last three weeks, which is 20th in the league.

That has led to Burrow posting 270 yards or fewer in two of the last three games, a trend that could certainly continue this week against a very tough pass defense.

All of this has Burrow projected for 263.98 passing yards, putting him under his prop this week.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for MNF​

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Allen Lazard Any Time Touchdown (+270)​

Week 15 ends at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field as the Green Bay Packers host the Los Angeles Rams.

This game features a modest 39.5-point over/under with the home Packers being favored by 7.5-points, and we want our player props to reflect that game environment.

We'll jump right in and go to Allen Lazard for any time touchdown tonight at +270. Lazard hasn't found the endzone in any of the last four games, but he continues to play a large role in the Packers' passing game and is frankly due for a score.

On the season, Lazard has a 21.1% target share, 32.7% air yards share, 12.5 average depth of target (aDOT), and 24.5% red zone target share. He has a consistent level of involvement every week but hasn't been able to find the endzone lately. It's really no fault of his own. We've seen Christian Watson take a big step forward and start producing plenty of touchdowns.

When it comes to the matchup against the Rams, their defense isn't as stingy as it once was. The Rams are in the bottom half of the league for the most yards (2,090) and touchdowns (12) allowed to wide receivers this season.

Lazard plays a clear role for the Packers, and with a favorable matchup, he should be able to find the endzone for the first time in four games.

Cam Akers Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)​

The Rams' offense will likely lean on the rushing game tonight.

Last week's game against the Las Vegas Raiders was one for the history books -- a crazy comeback in the fourth quarter led by a quarterback, who had been with the team for roughly 48 hours. While that's all fun and games, what we saw from the Rams on offense was more important.

They held a 46.37% rush-play percentage, which was noticeably higher than their 38.63% rate from the entire season. Realistically, that isn't too much of a surprise. With a brand-new quarterback, they want to limit Baker Mayfield's mistakes and stick to the running game.

That is what we could be seeing from them tonight, and it's also an elite matchup versus a very suspect Packers run defense, which has allowed the sixth-most (1,607) rushing yards to running backs this season.

Cam Akers posted 42 and 60 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and with the soft matchup, he should find himself in a similar spot tonight. We have him projected for 55.49 rushing yards.

AJ Dillon Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-108)​

Finally, going with over 10.5 receiving yards for A.J. Dillon.

The Packers have a few things going on with their backfield, and it's a spot that we can look to capitalize on. First off, star running back, Aaron Jones was listed as limited in practice throughout the entire week but doesn't carry any injury designation for tonight's game. That is rather interesting since the Packers are coming off their bye week, yet Jones still wasn't healthy enough for a full practice.

We should also take into account that the Packers are essentially eliminated from the playoff hunt. Jones is their star running back and is locked up for a few more seasons with a big contract. Today, the Packers elevated running back Patrick Taylor to the 53-man roster.

Does any of this matter? I pose this question as an indication that we could see a decreased role for Jones since he isn't fully healthy and the Packers don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

When it comes to Dillon, he's already seeing an increased role in the passing game and enters this game with three or more targets in three of the last five games. That has led to him posting 26, 24, 10, 10, and 0 receiving yards in these last five games. Compare those to the five games before that, where he ended with 9, 0, 11, 0, and 11 receiving yards.

The increase is there, and if Jones is going to see his role limited for the Packers, Dillon will have a clear path to more involvement in the offense.

 

[MAGAking1]

Some ideas from Thunder Dan

Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props​

Taylor Heinicke OVER 189.5 passing yards (-105 DK)

I like going after some of these lower passing yards props. This one is under 200 today, but not because of wind or weather like those in Cleveland, Buffalo, or elsewhere. It’s because the Niners’ defense is really good and Washington is a run-heavy team.

But Washington won’t be able to run the ball like they want to today, so they are going to have to air it out with Heinicke. He averages 211 per game and the Niners have allowed 211 per game on the season. Plus, San Fran has been such a pass-funnel defense lately that they’ve allowed 245 yards per game over their last three games.

Kenny Pickett OVER 187.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

This number is clearly weather-related as Pickett has thrown for 210 yards per game this year. That number is a bit deflated as he left two games early with an injury, too. He’s hit this number in five of his last six games and is facing a Raiders defense that allows 243 yards to opposing passers. It’s cold and windy here in PA, but the Pittsburgh offense is built around a lot of shorter passes and high-percentage throws so I think Pickett can still get there tonight.

Derrick Henry OVER 115.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

I normally wouldn’t bet such an inflated prop, but I am pretty much all in on Henry this weekend in all formats (DFS, season-long, betting) so why not? His last four games against Houston (including earlier this year) have dwarfed this number and you can guarantee he’s going to be getting the ball 30+ times again today.

Derrick Henry - Most Rushing Yards On Saturday (+450)

This is only a half or quarter-unit bet, but if we think Henry does anything close to his usual 200+ against the Texans then it’s worth betting on his ceiling, too.

JK Dobbins OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

We were all over Dobbins last week and he went over 100 yards again with ease. The number of total carries might concern you as he’s averaged just 14 carries, but he’s been incredibly efficient with those touches and should have a positive game script here at home in a good matchup against Atlanta. I think he soars over this number once again.

Jerrick McKinnon OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)

J-Mac has been incredible the last two weeks and is getting fed in the passing game by Mahomes and Andy Reid. He’s gone over this total in 5 of his last 7 games and has 15 catches for 182 yards just in the last two weeks. A few dump-offs and he crushes this number as he’s been electric in the open field.

Isaiah Hodgins OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Hodgins has 44, 38, and 37 yards the last three weeks so it’s not like he’s clearing the bar by much, but I like the increased usage he’s seeing in the Giants’ offense and the matchup here against the Vikings secondary, that allows the second-most passing yards to opponents.

Curtis Samuel OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

This is a sneaky good play in my opinion. Samuel has gone 6-63 and 3-44 in his last two games and lines up in the slot the most of any of the Washington receivers. That happens to be where the Niners’ defense has been the most vulnerable, too. I see him getting peppered with short targets today and getting over 30 yards quickly with his ability to run after the catch.

DJ Moore OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

The last time I recommended Moore he didn’t do anything against Seattle. So naturally, I jumped off him last week and he went 5-73 with a TD against the Steelers. This spot is too good to ignore as Detroit has been gashed by receivers all year, especially from the slot where Moore is lining up nearly half the time. His target share is on the rise and this is a matchup he can win.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorers​

Travis Kelce (-160)

Derrick Henry (-150)

If you hate the juice on both guys, then parlaying them together gets you some decent odds. I think Henry and Kelce get in today, maybe even two times each.

2-leg parlay = (+170 DK)

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Receptions​

DK Metcalf over 5.5 (-150)

Curtis Samuel over 2.5 (-180)

Tony Pollard over 2.5 (-145)

Isaiah Hodgins over 3.5 (+100)

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Enjoy some family, warm fires, friendship, and football today! And thanks for being a part of my sports betting family, too!

-Thunder Dan

 

[MAGAking1]

Couple beer money parlays.......Just got back from the store with a case of RedStripe bottles.....lol they are only 11.2 oz ea, sneaky fks.

 

[MAGAking1]

6pack parlay

 

[MAGAking1]

Dalton Schultz Any Time Touchdown (+230)
Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)​

Week 17 kicks off on Thursday Night Football with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Tennessee Titans.
An interesting game is shaping up tonight for several reasons, and it all leads me to a few player props from the Cowboys. From a top-down view, the Cowboys are huge 13.5-point favorites with a modest total sitting at 40.5. We want to use that overall game environment as a starting point for our view of the props.
Starting off, we're going with Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards (-110) and a Schultz any time touchdown (+230). For the receiving yards, this is legitimately the softest matchup you can find for a tight end. This season, the Titans have allowed 1,029 receiving yards to tight ends, which is the worst in the league. That's nearly 70 receiving yards per game, putting Schultz in a great spot.
Schultz has a projection of 41.74 receiving yards, which has him hitting the over on his total.
When it comes to the touchdown, the Cowboys have a 26.50 implied team total, so they're expected to be moving the ball and putting up plenty of points. Schultz plays a very large role for the Cowboys -- especially when it comes to the red zone.
For the season, Schultz has a 17.5% target share, and 15.8% air yards share while playing on 78.6% of the snaps. He also runs a route on 71.8% of dropbacks. Those are all relatively modest numbers overall, however, his red-zone target share is up at 24.1%, which leads the team. He has a higher red zone target share than CeeDee Lamb, which tells you he is trusted by Dak Prescott.
All of this should put Schultz in a favorable spot to have a big game and cash the over on his props.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)​

Next up, I'm going with Ezekiel Elliott over 16.5 rushing attempts due to a clear injury situation.
That injury situation would be Tony Pollard set to be inactive tonight, putting Zeke in the driver's seat for the Cowboys' backfield. We have to take that news and add it to the fact the Titans are going to be without several of their players, which is why we see the large, 13.5-point spread.
This game script would put the Cowboys in a spot to run the ball and control the clock, giving Zeke plenty of chances to rack up carries. The Cowboys are already a run-first team, coming in with a 48.46% rush-play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league.
Coming into this game, Zeke had 15 carries or more in seven straight games -- all while splitting time with Pollard. Pollard's absence gives Zeke a projection of 18.81 rushing attempts tonight, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight.