Ryan Tannehill Under 26.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
Week 11 starts on Thursday Night with the Tennessee Titans visiting the Green Bay Packers.A very modest 41.5-point over/under is where we see tonight's game sitting with the home Packers favored by just 3.5 points. The game total suggests there won't be a ton of offense in this game, and we want to target some props that reflect that, starting with Ryan Tannehill falling short of 26.5 passing attempts.
We have to come at this prop from a few different directions, but they all point to Tannehill hitting the under tonight. What do we know about the Titans' offense? They love to run the ball and come in with a 53.86% rush play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league. That gives them the third-lowest (46.14%) pass-play percentage.
This is not breaking news; they've been rushing the ball via Derrick Henry for many seasons, and that's their game plan. This matchup against the Packers is one of the best in the league to attack on the ground. Green Bay's defense has allowed 1,228 rushing yards to running backs, which is the second-most in the league. This is the first main part of why Tannehill will hit the under tonight.
The Titans love to run the ball and now have a matchup where should be able to exploit that. This will put them in a spot where Tannehill won't need to be passing the ball at a high volume since they can be so successful on the ground with Henry.
Next, we need to look at the Packers' passing defense, which is actually elite. They have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards (1,902) and the fifth-fewest passing attempts (281) to quarterbacks this season. This puts Tannehill in a difficult spot to be successful in the passing game, which is another sign pointing to under 26.5 passing attempts tonight.
Allen Lazard Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Allen Lazard has a solid role in the Packers' offense and a great matchup tonight.The Titans' defense has been one of the worst against the pass, and this is a clear matchup for the Packers to attack tonight. Through Week 10, the Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers (1,702), putting Lazard in a favorable matchup.
Lazard comes in with a team-high 20.8% target share, 32.9% air yards share, and 12.1 average depth of target (aDOT). He has become the new go-to option for Aaron Rodgers. That's an encouraging sign in an offense that has struggled at times this season.
Lazard has gone over this 48.5 total in three of his last five games and has a matchup tonight that should allow that type of production.
All of this has Lazard projected for 63.66 receiving yards, hitting the over here by a clear margin.
Austin Hooper Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Here's another under for the Titans, and this time, it's with Austin Hooper's receiving total.Under 22.5 receiving yards is the spot I'm going for Hooper tonight, and much of this plays into what was mentioned above for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans love the run the ball, the Packers have a terrible run defense, and the Packers have an elite pass defense.
The Packers have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season (271), which is another sign of their elite pass defense.
Considering Hooper has a very modest 12.4% target share in the Titans' passing offense -- which is very limited to begin with -- he won't be the primary receiving option tonight. Hooper has hit the under on this 22.5 mark in seven of his nine games this season.
3 props for Sunday
A classic AFC North matchup adds another chapter this week where the Bengals have a 22.0 implied team total and are 3.5-point road favorites. While they may be known for their defense in years past, the Steelers haven't shown us anything this season that makes them a team to avoid. In fact, we have been actively targeting the Steelers all season for player props.
The Steelers' secondary is struggling this season to the tune of 1,792 receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, which is the fourth-most in the league, along with the most (13) touchdowns allowed to the position.
Over the past two weeks since Ja'Marr Chase has been out for the Bengals, Tee Higgins is tied for the team-high with a 21.9% target share, while controlling a 37.8% air yards share, which is the highest on the team. Higgins also carries a 28.6% red zone target share, tied for the second-highest on the team.
Higgins has been solid throughout the season, coming in with 47.97 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.81 Receiving NEP per target. both of which are in the top 20 of the league for wide receivers with at least 30 targets.
It's one of the softest matchups in the league for wide receivers, and with Higgins playing an expanded role in the Bengals' passing game, he is in a great spot to find the end zone.
With a 23.25 implied team total, the Bears are near the top tier of teams this week, and that shouldn't be a surprise since the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is an easy one. To this point in the season, the Falcons have allowed the 11th-most (998) rushing yards to running backs. We've been attacking the Falcons via the rushing game all season, and there's no reason to stop now.
When we look at the Bears' offense, they lead the league with a 59.60% rushing play percentage aka the most run-heavy team this season. They love to run the ball, and that should put David Montgomery in an elite spot this week since the Bears put Khalil Herbert on injured reserve.
Herbert accounted for 44.81% of the Bears' running back rushing attempts with Montgomery sitting at 47.72%. It's been a near split for the two this season and that has impacted Montgomery's production overall, making it a bit inconsistent, but that should change with Herbert now on IR.
An increase in his snap count and rushing attempts put Montgomery in an advantageous spot -- especially with this matchup to pile up the yards on the ground.
All of this has Montgomery projected for 70.0 rushing yards, hitting the hover on his prop total this week.
The Giants are looking strong this season, and they've done so by sticking to their game plan, which is running the ball. The New York Football Giants come in with a 53.63% rush-play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league, giving them the third-lowest (46.37%) pass-play percentage.
They aren't throwing the ball at a high volume, and that has led to Jones posting under 220 passing yards in all nine of his game this season. Seven of those games have been under 200 passing yards. They will continue to rely on Saquon Barkley and the rushing game -- the point of the offense that has brought them success this season.
That rushing success should continue this week against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the seventh-most (1,020) rushing yards to running backs this season. This should put the Giants in a spot to move on the ball on the ground against a weak Lions' run defense, thus limiting Jones' need to pass the ball often.
This all points to Jones posting under 200.5 passing yards for the eighth time this season.
Tee Higgins Any Time Touchdown (+150)
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week and looking at a soft defensive matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.A classic AFC North matchup adds another chapter this week where the Bengals have a 22.0 implied team total and are 3.5-point road favorites. While they may be known for their defense in years past, the Steelers haven't shown us anything this season that makes them a team to avoid. In fact, we have been actively targeting the Steelers all season for player props.
The Steelers' secondary is struggling this season to the tune of 1,792 receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, which is the fourth-most in the league, along with the most (13) touchdowns allowed to the position.
Over the past two weeks since Ja'Marr Chase has been out for the Bengals, Tee Higgins is tied for the team-high with a 21.9% target share, while controlling a 37.8% air yards share, which is the highest on the team. Higgins also carries a 28.6% red zone target share, tied for the second-highest on the team.
Higgins has been solid throughout the season, coming in with 47.97 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.81 Receiving NEP per target. both of which are in the top 20 of the league for wide receivers with at least 30 targets.
It's one of the softest matchups in the league for wide receivers, and with Higgins playing an expanded role in the Bengals' passing game, he is in a great spot to find the end zone.
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Chicago Bears have a very favorable matchup for the rushing game this week, and we want to take a look at a player prop that reflects that.With a 23.25 implied team total, the Bears are near the top tier of teams this week, and that shouldn't be a surprise since the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is an easy one. To this point in the season, the Falcons have allowed the 11th-most (998) rushing yards to running backs. We've been attacking the Falcons via the rushing game all season, and there's no reason to stop now.
When we look at the Bears' offense, they lead the league with a 59.60% rushing play percentage aka the most run-heavy team this season. They love to run the ball, and that should put David Montgomery in an elite spot this week since the Bears put Khalil Herbert on injured reserve.
Herbert accounted for 44.81% of the Bears' running back rushing attempts with Montgomery sitting at 47.72%. It's been a near split for the two this season and that has impacted Montgomery's production overall, making it a bit inconsistent, but that should change with Herbert now on IR.
An increase in his snap count and rushing attempts put Montgomery in an advantageous spot -- especially with this matchup to pile up the yards on the ground.
All of this has Montgomery projected for 70.0 rushing yards, hitting the hover on his prop total this week.
Daniel Jones Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Finally, let's look at under 200.5 passing yards for Daniel Jones of the New York Giants.The Giants are looking strong this season, and they've done so by sticking to their game plan, which is running the ball. The New York Football Giants come in with a 53.63% rush-play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league, giving them the third-lowest (46.37%) pass-play percentage.
They aren't throwing the ball at a high volume, and that has led to Jones posting under 220 passing yards in all nine of his game this season. Seven of those games have been under 200 passing yards. They will continue to rely on Saquon Barkley and the rushing game -- the point of the offense that has brought them success this season.
That rushing success should continue this week against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the seventh-most (1,020) rushing yards to running backs this season. This should put the Giants in a spot to move on the ball on the ground against a weak Lions' run defense, thus limiting Jones' need to pass the ball often.
This all points to Jones posting under 200.5 passing yards for the eighth time this season.
This looks like a pretty good card from Thunder Dan
See more winners than losers in the bunch
See more winners than losers in the bunch
Passing/Rushing/Receiving PropsSaquon Barkley OVER 98.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) Barkley averages over 100 yards on the ground per game this year, so this number stands out as low already. He’s coming off a season-high 35 carries and this spot sets up so nicely for him as the Giants are home favorites who should focus on establishing him early and often against the 31st-ranked Detroit run defense. Dalvin Cook OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-125 DK) The Cowboys’ defense has been bad against the run this, allowing the fourth-most yards per game of any unit. And they’ve allowed 188 yards per game (third-worst) over their last three games. The formula for beating them is now well-known, and I would expect the Vikings to try to exploit that by pounding Cook in this game. Cook has gone over 100 yards rushing in two of his last three games and has been very efficient with his touches, averaging 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games. I’m banking on a big day from him in this one, another game that carries a pretty high total as Vegas is expecting a lot of offense. Marcus Mariota OVER 165.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) We were on the under for Mariota there for a while as the Falcons just refused to pass the ball more than like 20 times a game. But Mariota’s attempts are up lately, as he’s averaged 27 passing attempts per game over his last three and has gone over this number twice. The Bears’ defense has allowed 262 yards passing over their last three games, which is the fourth most in the league. If we expect this game to shoot out (as Vegas does) then I think Mariota could easily eclipse this number on his way to a big day. Terry McLaurin OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-130 DK) Scary Terry is coming off a season-high 128 yards receiving against the Eagles on Monday night in their huge home upset. He’s now gone over this number in three of the four Commanders’ games since Taylor Heinecke took over at QB. In another soft matchup with the Houston secondary, I love his chances of smashing this total. Stefon Diggs OVER 87.5 receiving yards (-130 DK) Diggs averages nearly 110 receiving yards per game and has beaten this number in 7 of 9 games this year, including the last five in a row! Now that the game is in Detroit, we can fire up the Bills’ offensive players in all formats, especially since the Browns have been middling pass defense and overall BAD defense this year. ReceptionsAdam Thielen OVER 3.5 (-145 DK) DeVonta Smith OVER 4.5 (-155 DK) Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 (+105 DK) Thielen has at least four catches in all but two games this year. Smith has 5 or more catches in four of his last five and the loss of Goedert as a weapon likely means more short routes and designed plays for Smith this week. Meyers had 9 catches against the Jets a few weeks ago and five catches for plus money seems very doable for a possession receiver like Jakobi. Just 8 props this week, but I really want to get a week where we can hit 6 or more of these and really clean up! It’s a small NBA slate today, so I think I am going to roll with a nice big NBA slate on Sunday for all my premium peeps, look for that tomorrow sometime! Good luck this week and may the odds be ever in your favor. -Thunder Dan |
Props for tonight
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
1.5 Passing TDs
247.5 Passing Yards
16.25 Fantasy Points
2.5 Rushing Yards
0.5 Interceptions
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
0.5 Rushing TDs
37.5 Receiving Yards
4.5 Receptions
18.05 Fantasy Points
66.5 Rushing Yards
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
52.5 Receiving Yards
11.5 Rushing Yards
11.55 Fantasy Points
5.0 Receptions
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
58.5 Receiving Yards
4.0 Receptions
10.95 Fantasy Points
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
42.5 Receiving Yards
4.0 Receptions
10.05 Fantasy Points
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
ARI vs SF
- 7:15pm
49.5 Rushing Yards
19.5 Receiving Yards
71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
10.25 Fantasy Points
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
1.5 Passing TDs
247.5 Passing Yards
16.25 Fantasy Points
2.5 Rushing Yards
0.5 Interceptions
Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
0.5 Rushing TDs
37.5 Receiving Yards
4.5 Receptions
18.05 Fantasy Points
66.5 Rushing Yards
Deebo Samuel
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
52.5 Receiving Yards
11.5 Rushing Yards
11.55 Fantasy Points
5.0 Receptions
Brandon Aiyuk
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
58.5 Receiving Yards
4.0 Receptions
10.95 Fantasy Points
George Kittle
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
42.5 Receiving Yards
4.0 Receptions
10.05 Fantasy Points
Robbie Gould
SF @ ARI
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
James Conner
ARI vs SF
- 7:15pm
49.5 Rushing Yards
19.5 Receiving Yards
71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
10.25 Fantasy Points
Dawson Knox Any Time Touchdown (+200)
Dawson Knox Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The Buffalo Bills kick off the Thanksgiving slate against the Detroit Lions, where the total is up at 54.5 points. A high over/under is always a good sign when we are looking for player props, and the ones we target should reflect that total. The Bills are carrying a slate-high 32.00 implied team total, and given how strong their offense has been this season -- the second-most points scored -- it won't be a surprise to see them hit or exceed that mark.
When it comes to the defensive matchup for individual players, Dawson Knox has a very favorable one that puts him in play for both a touchdown and to hit the over on 37.5 receiving yards.
This season, the Lions have allowed the fifth-most (596) receiving yards and the second-most (7) touchdowns to opposing tight ends, making this an elite spot for Knox. He plays a modest but consistent role in the Bills' passing offense, and with this matchup, he should excel.
To this point in the season, Knox has a 12.5% target share, 11.0% air yards share, 79.4% snap rate, 70.5% route rate, and 13.7% red zone target share. When a passing offense has Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, they are going to be the primary options, but Knox has carved out a nice role for himself.
That role has led to Knox posting a 0.65 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) per target, which is the 11th-best among tight ends with at least 25 targets. All of this should lead to Knox hitting the over on his 37.5 receiving prop while being in a great spot to find the end zone.
Dak Prescott Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Next up, we have Dak Prescott under 32.5 passing attempts versus the New York Giants.A classic NFC East rivalry adds another chapter on Thanksgiving as the Dallas Cowboys host the Giants in what could be a lopsided game. The Cowboys are 10.0-point favorites in a game with a modest over/under of 45.5 points. The under on passing attempts is no knock against Prescott's ability; it's a matter of the game environment and the team's offensive tendencies.
With the Cowboys being booked as two-score favorites, they should be out in front of the Giants early and in a spot where they don't need to pass the ball. This would be in line with what we've seen from Dallas this season, and that has led to Prescot posting fewer than 30 passing attempts in four of his five games.
The only game Prescott went over 30 passing attempts was just a few weeks ago against the Green Bay Packers, a game which went to overtime.
When we look at the Cowboys' offense overall, they come in with a 52.49% pass play percentage, which is 26th in the league. They are still a clear run-first team and are set on handing the ball to both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott early and often.
Between the large spread and the offensive play-calling, this should lead to Prescott hitting the under on his prop this week.
K.J. Osborn Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Finally, we should side with under 23.5 receiving yards for K.J. Osborn.This is a rather low number and an unexciting prop, but it makes a ton of sense. The Minnesota Vikings are slight 2.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots, and while this game has the closest spread on the Thanksgiving slate, it also features the lowest total (42.5).
We could be in for a lack of offense in this game, and the Vikings have a tough test against the Patriots' pass defense. This season, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest (1,350) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, putting the clamps on them all year.
Osborn plays a modest role for the Vikings with a 13.0% target share, 15.4% air yards share, 76.2% snap rate, and 80.9% route rate. After the addition of T.J. Hockenson to their offense, Osborn has the fourth-highest target share, leaving him with a lack of opportunities.
He's been under this 23.5 mark in four of his last five games, and with a very tough matchup ahead, the under is the spot to look.
See any good ones?
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
270.5 Passing Yards
35.5 Passing Attempts
318.5 Total Yards
7.5 Rushing Attempts
23.35 Fantasy Points
45.5 Rushing Yards
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
13.0 Rushing Attempts
53.5 Rushing Yards
2.0 Receptions
11.5 Receiving Yards
10.45 Fantasy Points
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
15.5 Rushing Yards
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
85.5 Receiving Yards
6.5 Receptions
16.55 Fantasy Points
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
3.0 Receptions
53.5 Receiving Yards
9.55 Fantasy Points
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
3.0 Receptions
32.5 Receiving Yards
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
29.5 Receiving Yards
2.5 Rushing Yards
3.0 Receptions
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
2.5 XP Made
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
8.5 Rushing Yards
32.5 Passing Attempts
242.5 Total Yards
12.25 Fantasy Points
230.5 Passing Yards
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
15.5 Rushing Attempts
0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs
62.5 Rushing Yards
15.25 Fantasy Points
37.5 Receiving Yards
5.0 Receptions
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
4.0 Receptions
50.5 Receiving Yards
8.55 Fantasy Points
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
35.5 Receiving Yards
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
2.5 Receptions
24.5 Receiving Yards
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
13.5 Receiving Yards
1.5 Receptions
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
Josh Allen
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
270.5 Passing Yards
35.5 Passing Attempts
318.5 Total Yards
7.5 Rushing Attempts
23.35 Fantasy Points
45.5 Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
13.0 Rushing Attempts
53.5 Rushing Yards
2.0 Receptions
11.5 Receiving Yards
10.45 Fantasy Points
James Cook
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
15.5 Rushing Yards
Stefon Diggs
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
85.5 Receiving Yards
6.5 Receptions
16.55 Fantasy Points
Gabe Davis
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
3.0 Receptions
53.5 Receiving Yards
9.55 Fantasy Points
Dawson Knox
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
3.0 Receptions
32.5 Receiving Yards
Isaiah McKenzie
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
29.5 Receiving Yards
2.5 Rushing Yards
3.0 Receptions
Tyler Bass
BUF @ NE
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
2.5 XP Made
Mac Jones
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
8.5 Rushing Yards
32.5 Passing Attempts
242.5 Total Yards
12.25 Fantasy Points
230.5 Passing Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
15.5 Rushing Attempts
0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs
62.5 Rushing Yards
15.25 Fantasy Points
37.5 Receiving Yards
5.0 Receptions
Jakobi Meyers
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
4.0 Receptions
50.5 Receiving Yards
8.55 Fantasy Points
DeVante Parker
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
35.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
2.5 Receptions
24.5 Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
13.5 Receiving Yards
1.5 Receptions
Nick Folk
NE vs BUF
- 7:15pm
1.5 FG Made
3 for Thursday to consider
Tonight's game sees the Bills as slight 3.5-point favorites and a modest over/under of 43.5-points, which could set things up for a lower-scoring game. There's no time to waste, so let's hop right into the player props starting off with Josh Allen under 268.5 passing yards.
Allen is an awesome quarterback -- there's no denying that -- but this is a very tough matchup for him. Through 11 games, the Patriots have allowed the sixth-fewest (2,184) passing yards to quarterbacks, good for only 198.5 yards per game. They have an elite passing defense that has held opposing quarterbacks under this 268.5 mark in eight of those contests.
Historically, this is a matchup that has caused some issues for Allen; he is averaging 215.9 passing yards per game against the Patriots in seven career games.
Allen is also still dealing with an elbow injury, and whether or not it's a major issue is yet to be seen, but we have seen his passing production take a step back in recent games. Over his last five games, Allen has hit the over on this 268.5 mark just once.
Add all of this up, and it has me going with under 268.5 passing yards for Josh Allen tonight.
When it comes to the Patriots' passing game, they are very balanced and spread the ball around a good amount. There are six players with target shares over 10% but also have no player higher than a 22.8% target share. It's great to have a balanced passing attack and spread the ball around to multiple players, but things are different when it comes to taking shots downfield.
Devante Parker is the clear number-one option for deep passes this season. He comes in with a team-high 16.1 average depth of target (aDOT). The next highest player on the team is Nelson Agholor with an 11.2 aDOT.
If we look back through Parker's game log this season, he has receptions of 25 yards or more in five of his nine games. In three of those games, he had long receptions of 40-plus yards. They love to target him downfield, and the matchup against the Bills is one that should allow that to happen.
The Bills' secondary is struggling a bit this season and has allowed the 11th most (1,789) receiving yards to wide receivers. We've seen those struggles on display this season where they have allowed opposing wide receivers to haul in long receptions of at least 21 yards in 10 of their 11 games.
It's a match made in heaven for Parker, and the clear option to go over 17.5 yards for his longest reception.
Not only is this a tough matchup for the Bills' passing game, but it's also one for their rushing attack. The Patriots' defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (842) to opposing running backs this season, putting Singletary in a tough spot.
While some may note that Singletary has posted strong production recently -- going over this 51.5 mark three times in his last five games -- we have to account for those matchups.
Singletary went over 51.5 yards against the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Green Bay Packers. All three of those teams are in the bottom half of the league for the most rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs.
The Patriots' defense is a different beast compared to those three teams, and Singletary shouldn't have the same success tonight as he did in other matchups.
Josh Allen Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Week 13 starts with the Buffalo Bills visiting the New England Patriots for an AFC East showdown.Tonight's game sees the Bills as slight 3.5-point favorites and a modest over/under of 43.5-points, which could set things up for a lower-scoring game. There's no time to waste, so let's hop right into the player props starting off with Josh Allen under 268.5 passing yards.
Allen is an awesome quarterback -- there's no denying that -- but this is a very tough matchup for him. Through 11 games, the Patriots have allowed the sixth-fewest (2,184) passing yards to quarterbacks, good for only 198.5 yards per game. They have an elite passing defense that has held opposing quarterbacks under this 268.5 mark in eight of those contests.
Historically, this is a matchup that has caused some issues for Allen; he is averaging 215.9 passing yards per game against the Patriots in seven career games.
Allen is also still dealing with an elbow injury, and whether or not it's a major issue is yet to be seen, but we have seen his passing production take a step back in recent games. Over his last five games, Allen has hit the over on this 268.5 mark just once.
Add all of this up, and it has me going with under 268.5 passing yards for Josh Allen tonight.
DeVante Parker Over 17.5 Longest Reception (-114)
For the Patriots' offense, DeVante Parker plays a very clear role -- a great downfield target.When it comes to the Patriots' passing game, they are very balanced and spread the ball around a good amount. There are six players with target shares over 10% but also have no player higher than a 22.8% target share. It's great to have a balanced passing attack and spread the ball around to multiple players, but things are different when it comes to taking shots downfield.
Devante Parker is the clear number-one option for deep passes this season. He comes in with a team-high 16.1 average depth of target (aDOT). The next highest player on the team is Nelson Agholor with an 11.2 aDOT.
If we look back through Parker's game log this season, he has receptions of 25 yards or more in five of his nine games. In three of those games, he had long receptions of 40-plus yards. They love to target him downfield, and the matchup against the Bills is one that should allow that to happen.
The Bills' secondary is struggling a bit this season and has allowed the 11th most (1,789) receiving yards to wide receivers. We've seen those struggles on display this season where they have allowed opposing wide receivers to haul in long receptions of at least 21 yards in 10 of their 11 games.
It's a match made in heaven for Parker, and the clear option to go over 17.5 yards for his longest reception.
Devin Singletary Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Finally, let's turn to the under for rushing yards by Devin Singletary.Not only is this a tough matchup for the Bills' passing game, but it's also one for their rushing attack. The Patriots' defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (842) to opposing running backs this season, putting Singletary in a tough spot.
While some may note that Singletary has posted strong production recently -- going over this 51.5 mark three times in his last five games -- we have to account for those matchups.
Singletary went over 51.5 yards against the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Green Bay Packers. All three of those teams are in the bottom half of the league for the most rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs.
The Patriots' defense is a different beast compared to those three teams, and Singletary shouldn't have the same success tonight as he did in other matchups.
Some props from Thunder Dan
This is the week that Hurts has to use his arm in addition to his legs. The Titans have the best rush defense in the league and Hurts is going to end up slinging it more often than usual. Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing yards per game to opponents and this number is pretty low if we expect Hurts to toss it 30+ times.
Mike White OVER 257.5 passing yards (-125 DK)
White looked great last week, piling up 300+ against the Bears, and now gets a Vikings defense that has allowed THE MOST passing yards to opponents per game. This offense is rejuvenated and I think they’ll move the ball tomorrow.
Josh Jacobs OVER 90.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
I’m all in on Jacobs in this spot against the Chargers. LA is conceding over 150 yards per game to opponents this season and Jacobs has run for 91 or more in 5 games already this season and the last two in a row.
David Montgomery OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
Monty is a DFS staple for me and this number seems awfully low based on this matchup and his prior success against the Packers, who are allowing the second-most rushing yards to opponents this year.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
Antonio Gibson’s status is uncertain, but B-Rob has been winning the battle for touches anyways, at least the battle for carries. The Giants’ run defense is one we like to target and Washington will make running the ball a priority in this game.
Garrett Wilson OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Wilson came to life with Mike White under center and I am betting on that duo in all formats this week (DFS and props).
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 7.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Patterson saw five targets last week and caught three balls for 19 yards. The Falcons have a plus matchup with the Steelers here and I look for Patterson and Zaccheus both to help fill the void left behind by Kyle Pitts’ absence.
Skyy Moore OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
Moore has had two straight weeks with five receptions and is averaging 49 yards per game over those two contests. He should be involved this week and this number is way too low.
Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 (-150 DK)
Olamide Zaccheus OVER 2.5 (+120 DK)
David Montgomery OVER 2.5 (+120 DK)
Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props
Jalen Hurts OVER 224.5 passing yards (-115 DK)This is the week that Hurts has to use his arm in addition to his legs. The Titans have the best rush defense in the league and Hurts is going to end up slinging it more often than usual. Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing yards per game to opponents and this number is pretty low if we expect Hurts to toss it 30+ times.
Mike White OVER 257.5 passing yards (-125 DK)
White looked great last week, piling up 300+ against the Bears, and now gets a Vikings defense that has allowed THE MOST passing yards to opponents per game. This offense is rejuvenated and I think they’ll move the ball tomorrow.
Josh Jacobs OVER 90.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
I’m all in on Jacobs in this spot against the Chargers. LA is conceding over 150 yards per game to opponents this season and Jacobs has run for 91 or more in 5 games already this season and the last two in a row.
David Montgomery OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
Monty is a DFS staple for me and this number seems awfully low based on this matchup and his prior success against the Packers, who are allowing the second-most rushing yards to opponents this year.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
Antonio Gibson’s status is uncertain, but B-Rob has been winning the battle for touches anyways, at least the battle for carries. The Giants’ run defense is one we like to target and Washington will make running the ball a priority in this game.
Garrett Wilson OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Wilson came to life with Mike White under center and I am betting on that duo in all formats this week (DFS and props).
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 7.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Patterson saw five targets last week and caught three balls for 19 yards. The Falcons have a plus matchup with the Steelers here and I look for Patterson and Zaccheus both to help fill the void left behind by Kyle Pitts’ absence.
Skyy Moore OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
Moore has had two straight weeks with five receptions and is averaging 49 yards per game over those two contests. He should be involved this week and this number is way too low.
Receptions
Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 3.5 (-110 DK)Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 (-150 DK)
Olamide Zaccheus OVER 2.5 (+120 DK)
David Montgomery OVER 2.5 (+120 DK)
Cam Akers Any Time Touchdown (+160)
Cam Akers Over 44.5 Rushing yards (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams host the Las Vegas Raiders to kick off Week 14 in what will be a very interesting game. Will this game be good? I have no idea, but it will certainly be interesting due to the injury situations on the Rams. As of now, the Rams don't know who will be their starting quarterback. John Wolford is dealing with a neck injury, and that could lead to the newly acquired Baker Mayfield getting the start.
Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Rams, it should put Cam Akers in a good spot tonight. A couple of things can be true: Wolford isn't good and isn't fully healthy, and Baker doesn't know the playbook. This should point the Rams in the direction of having a simple and straightforward offense, meaning more rushing chances for Akers.
On the season, the Rams have a 61.16% pass play percentage, which is the ninth-highest in the league. However, there has been a dramatic switch in recent weeks. In the last three weeks, the Rams have a 49.44% pass play percentage, which is 26th. They have completely shifted their offensive play-calling tendencies due to the lack of skill at the quarterback position.
This has led to Akers seeing 39 carries over the last three weeks, his highest total of any three-game stretch this season. That volume should come in handy against the Raiders' run defense, which is the league's 12th-worst, per our metrics.
All of this has Akers projected for 50.91 rushing yards, going over his prop total tonight. The Rams' commitment to the rushing game will also put him in a spot to see touches in the scoring areas against a mediocre defense.
Mac Hollins Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
With a 25.00 implied team total, the Raiders should be moving the ball on offense, presenting plenty of chances for their players to rack up stats.While the Raiders' passing offense is dominated by the always-talented Davante Adams, a second consistent option in Mack Hollins has emerged in recent weeks. Since both Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are on injured reserve, Hollins has stepped up to fill that void on offense.
Over the last four weeks, Hollins has a 21.0% target share and 23.4% air yard share while playing on 97.3% of the snaps and running a route on 100.0% of drop backs. This has allowed Hollins to rack up four receptions or more in three of these last four weeks, a solid level of consistency.
The matchup against the Rams is a juicy one because they have allowed the 2nd-most receptions (175) and the 11th-most (1,986) yards to wide receivers this season. Tonight, he is projected for 4.41 receptions, going over his prop total.
3 Props for Sunday
Last week, I went with the revenge narrative of A.J. Brown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. This week, it's another revenge narrative, with Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson facing the team that traded him this season, the Detroit Lions. While the revenge narrative is fun, there's more to it than just that.
First off, this is setting up to be one of the best games on the slate with a big 51.5-point over/under and a 1.5-point spread. The Lions have struggled defensively this season but especially so when it comes to opposing tight ends.
This season, the Lions have allowed the 2nd-most (8) touchdowns, 10th-most (60) receptions, and 11th-most (649) receiving yards to tight ends. This puts Hockenson in a great spot to have his first big breakout game since joining the Vikings.
Speaking of joining the Vikings, in the five weeks since Hockenson has been with them, he has a 21.4% target share, 15.2% air yards share, and 23.4% and red zone target share, all while playing on 86.1% of the snaps and running a route on 81.4% of drop backs.
Hockenson has been great all season, coming in with a 51.26 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the third-highest at the position behind only Travis Kelce (93.34) and Mark Andrews (57.99).
The matchup is flat-out elite for Hockenson, who is playing a strong role for the Vikings and just so happens to be going against his former team.
When it comes to the Bengals, Ja'Marr Chase is their best offensive player, and getting the ball to him early and often is never a bad idea. The Bengals have done just that this season, as Chase is rocking a 27.5% target share and 35.5% air yards share, both of which are the highest on the team.
Chase has gone over this 80.5 mark in five of his eight games this season, where in three of those games he finished with 129 yards or more. He will maintain a high ceiling due to his high involvement in the passing game and big-play ability.
The Browns' secondary isn't anything to worry about too much because they come in as the 17th-ranked pass defense, per our metrics.
All of this has Chase projected for 86.47 receiving yards, which has him going over his prop total this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a loss and are in a spot to bounce back as large 9.5-point favorites against the lowly Denver Broncos. While the Chiefs are heavy favorites on paper, this is an important matchup for them in terms of securing a playoff spot and seeding.
This should be a no-nonsense game from them, and that means leaning on their best offensive player -- Kelce -- not named Patrick Mahomes. Surprisingly, Kelce has been a bit quiet in the last two weeks, ending with fewer than 60 yards and just 4 receptions in each game.
That's not what we expect from the best tight end in the league, but this matchup is one he should be able to attack. The Broncos have allowed the 11th-most (60) receptions and the 15th-most (603) receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
To no one's surprise, Kelce leads the Chiefs in nearly every receiving category this season except air yards share, where he is at 23.5% and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is at 24.5%. As noted above with Hockenson, Kelce leads all tight ends this season in Receiving NEP.
All of that should allow Kelce to hit the over on his receiving total this week, something he has done regularly against the Broncos. Over his career, Kelce has averaged 78.4 receiving yards in 15 games versus the Broncos.
T.J. Hockenson Any Time Touchdown (+190)
The Week 14 Sunday slate has several great player props, so let's jump in!Last week, I went with the revenge narrative of A.J. Brown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. This week, it's another revenge narrative, with Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson facing the team that traded him this season, the Detroit Lions. While the revenge narrative is fun, there's more to it than just that.
First off, this is setting up to be one of the best games on the slate with a big 51.5-point over/under and a 1.5-point spread. The Lions have struggled defensively this season but especially so when it comes to opposing tight ends.
This season, the Lions have allowed the 2nd-most (8) touchdowns, 10th-most (60) receptions, and 11th-most (649) receiving yards to tight ends. This puts Hockenson in a great spot to have his first big breakout game since joining the Vikings.
Speaking of joining the Vikings, in the five weeks since Hockenson has been with them, he has a 21.4% target share, 15.2% air yards share, and 23.4% and red zone target share, all while playing on 86.1% of the snaps and running a route on 81.4% of drop backs.
Hockenson has been great all season, coming in with a 51.26 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the third-highest at the position behind only Travis Kelce (93.34) and Mark Andrews (57.99).
The matchup is flat-out elite for Hockenson, who is playing a strong role for the Vikings and just so happens to be going against his former team.
Ja'Marr Chase Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Cincinnati Bengals have a 26.00 implied team total this week and should be able to move the ball on offense against the Cleveland Browns.When it comes to the Bengals, Ja'Marr Chase is their best offensive player, and getting the ball to him early and often is never a bad idea. The Bengals have done just that this season, as Chase is rocking a 27.5% target share and 35.5% air yards share, both of which are the highest on the team.
Chase has gone over this 80.5 mark in five of his eight games this season, where in three of those games he finished with 129 yards or more. He will maintain a high ceiling due to his high involvement in the passing game and big-play ability.
The Browns' secondary isn't anything to worry about too much because they come in as the 17th-ranked pass defense, per our metrics.
All of this has Chase projected for 86.47 receiving yards, which has him going over his prop total this week.
Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Finally, let's turn to Travis Kelce and the over on his receiving total this week.The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a loss and are in a spot to bounce back as large 9.5-point favorites against the lowly Denver Broncos. While the Chiefs are heavy favorites on paper, this is an important matchup for them in terms of securing a playoff spot and seeding.
This should be a no-nonsense game from them, and that means leaning on their best offensive player -- Kelce -- not named Patrick Mahomes. Surprisingly, Kelce has been a bit quiet in the last two weeks, ending with fewer than 60 yards and just 4 receptions in each game.
That's not what we expect from the best tight end in the league, but this matchup is one he should be able to attack. The Broncos have allowed the 11th-most (60) receptions and the 15th-most (603) receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
To no one's surprise, Kelce leads the Chiefs in nearly every receiving category this season except air yards share, where he is at 23.5% and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is at 24.5%. As noted above with Hockenson, Kelce leads all tight ends this season in Receiving NEP.
All of that should allow Kelce to hit the over on his receiving total this week, something he has done regularly against the Broncos. Over his career, Kelce has averaged 78.4 receiving yards in 15 games versus the Broncos.
Prop picks from Thunder Dan....feels like more winners than losers here
As much as I wanted to write up Jared Goff, his number is super high this week and there’s always a chance the Lions run the ball more or play from in front in that game.
Instead, I am going with Tannehill here, who has a very beatable number compared to his season average of 211 yards passing per game. Last week, the Titans were stonewalled by a great Philly defense, but Tannehill had crushed this number three straight weeks before that after missing a few weeks with an injury.
Of course, the Titans want to run the ball, but Jacksonville is a heavy pass-funnel defense that is solid against the run. Their pass defense is leaky, however, allowing the third-most passing yards per game to opponents and massive 307 yards per game over their last three (second-worst behind Minnesota).
Miles Sanders OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Sanders averages 77 rushing yards per game and gets a great matchup here against a leaky Giants run defense that has allowed 141 yards rushing per game this season and 164 per game over their last three.
The Eagles have a major mismatch up front with their offensive line against the Giants’ defensive front seven and I expect them to exploit it. It’s a great bounce-back spot for Sanders after facing the toughest run defense in the league last week in Tennesee.
Ezekiel Elliot OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) AND Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Is it really that far-fetched to think that both Cowboys’ backs go for 68+ in this matchup against Houston? They are allowing 169 rushing yards per game to opponents and the game script here sets up perfectly for the Dallas running attack as they are massive 17-point favorites.
Pollard is so explosive he only needed 12 carries last week to rack up 91 yards, while Zeke added 77 of his own on 17 carries - and that was against a much better defense in Indianapolis.
DeAndre Swift OVER 63.5 rushing + receiving yards (-125 DK)
It’s officially Swift SZN and I am here to tell you the hype is real. This year, Swift is averaging 6.4 yards per touch, but simply hasn’t been healthy and the Lions haven’t forced the issue.
But last week he had season-high 18 touches and turned those into 111 scrimmage yards. This week’s matchup is great on the ground and through the air, and I expect Detroit to continue to keep him involved. If we project him even conservatively to only have say only 12-15 touches, he still smashes this number with 75-90 yards.
DJ Moore OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
The Panthers are an interesting team this week as they looked good enough with Darnold under center that they cut Baker Mayfield in their bye week. Darnold hit Moore on four of six targets last week for over 100 yards and it’s quite likely he continues to see some decent volume as the Panthers should be playing from behind here against Seattle. This is such a low number for a stud like Moore, he simply needs the targets and he should get there.
Chig Okonkwo OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
The Titans are so depleted at the receiver position that we could see their backup TE line up as a receiver in some formations. This dude is a stud if you haven’t watched him yet, he’s incredibly athletic. He caught four balls for 68 yards last week and 3-35 against Cincy the week before. His coach says he’s earned more opportunities and I am taking him at his word.
Joe Mixon (-140)
Dalvin Cook (-140)
3-leg parlay = (+396 DK)
Good luck this week, peeps! I feel good about these picks and I hope we can make it another profitable weekend. Enjoy some NFL football and thanks for being a part of this with me!
-Thunder Dan
Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props
Ryan Tannehill OVER 197.5 passing yards (-115 DK)As much as I wanted to write up Jared Goff, his number is super high this week and there’s always a chance the Lions run the ball more or play from in front in that game.
Instead, I am going with Tannehill here, who has a very beatable number compared to his season average of 211 yards passing per game. Last week, the Titans were stonewalled by a great Philly defense, but Tannehill had crushed this number three straight weeks before that after missing a few weeks with an injury.
Of course, the Titans want to run the ball, but Jacksonville is a heavy pass-funnel defense that is solid against the run. Their pass defense is leaky, however, allowing the third-most passing yards per game to opponents and massive 307 yards per game over their last three (second-worst behind Minnesota).
Miles Sanders OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Sanders averages 77 rushing yards per game and gets a great matchup here against a leaky Giants run defense that has allowed 141 yards rushing per game this season and 164 per game over their last three.
The Eagles have a major mismatch up front with their offensive line against the Giants’ defensive front seven and I expect them to exploit it. It’s a great bounce-back spot for Sanders after facing the toughest run defense in the league last week in Tennesee.
Ezekiel Elliot OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) AND Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Is it really that far-fetched to think that both Cowboys’ backs go for 68+ in this matchup against Houston? They are allowing 169 rushing yards per game to opponents and the game script here sets up perfectly for the Dallas running attack as they are massive 17-point favorites.
Pollard is so explosive he only needed 12 carries last week to rack up 91 yards, while Zeke added 77 of his own on 17 carries - and that was against a much better defense in Indianapolis.
DeAndre Swift OVER 63.5 rushing + receiving yards (-125 DK)
It’s officially Swift SZN and I am here to tell you the hype is real. This year, Swift is averaging 6.4 yards per touch, but simply hasn’t been healthy and the Lions haven’t forced the issue.
But last week he had season-high 18 touches and turned those into 111 scrimmage yards. This week’s matchup is great on the ground and through the air, and I expect Detroit to continue to keep him involved. If we project him even conservatively to only have say only 12-15 touches, he still smashes this number with 75-90 yards.
DJ Moore OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
The Panthers are an interesting team this week as they looked good enough with Darnold under center that they cut Baker Mayfield in their bye week. Darnold hit Moore on four of six targets last week for over 100 yards and it’s quite likely he continues to see some decent volume as the Panthers should be playing from behind here against Seattle. This is such a low number for a stud like Moore, he simply needs the targets and he should get there.
Chig Okonkwo OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
The Titans are so depleted at the receiver position that we could see their backup TE line up as a receiver in some formations. This dude is a stud if you haven’t watched him yet, he’s incredibly athletic. He caught four balls for 68 yards last week and 3-35 against Cincy the week before. His coach says he’s earned more opportunities and I am taking him at his word.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Ezekiel Elliot (-145)Joe Mixon (-140)
Dalvin Cook (-140)
3-leg parlay = (+396 DK)
Receptions
No receptions props this week, they’ve been kicking my ass and there simply aren’t any that I really like!Good luck this week, peeps! I feel good about these picks and I hope we can make it another profitable weekend. Enjoy some NFL football and thanks for being a part of this with me!
-Thunder Dan
3 props for Monday
The Patriots are slight favorites in this game and considering they are in the hunt for the playoffs, it should be a rather straightforward gameplan for their offense. That means they should get the ball to their best player, Rhamondre Stevenson. With Damien Harris listed as doubtful and Jakobi Meyers listed as out, it should point to more work for Stevenson.
To this point in the season, Stevenson has a 19.4% target share, which is the second-highest on the team behind Meyers (22.1%), who is ruled out. Getting the ball via the passing game to Stevenson won't be anything new; he has racked up seven-plus targets in five of his last six games, going for at least 56 yards or more in four of those.
This should come in handy against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs this season (527).
The Patriots last played on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Harris was out due to the same thigh issue that has him listed as doubtful for tonight. In that game, Stevenson played on 53 of 54 snaps and grabbed 10 of the 11 running back rushing attempts.
Long story short, he is clearly the go-to guy in their offense when they are missing some players. Speaking of missing players, the Patriots have one offensive lineman listed as out, and two listed as questionable. If the Pats aren't able to run the ball effectively due to a depleted offensive line, it can lead them to pass the ball more, putting Stevenson in a spot for plenty of action.
All of this has Stevenson projected for 130.45 combined rushing plus receiving yards, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight.
There are a few things to take into account for Murray and what will cause him to run the ball more, putting him in a spot to hit the over on his prop. First off, the Patriots are a tough run defense and have allowed the fifth-fewest (954) rushing yards to running backs this season. They've been solid all season, and if the Cardinals can't get James Conner going, they are going to have to turn to the passing game.
Them passing the ball won't be too much of a surprise, they have a 61.36% pass-play percentage, which is the eighth-highest in the league. That means Murray will be dropping back often, which means he is going to be in a spot to scramble and rack up the rushing yards.
Murray should be forced out of the pocket quickly since the Patriots lead the league in quarterback hurries per dropback at 12.7%.
Not being able to pick up yards on the ground will lead the Cardinals to pass the ball more. Being under pressure and forced out of the pocket will allow Murray to scramble and pick up yards, leading to him hitting over 34.5 rushing yards tonight.
The Patriots are a run-first team and come in with a 43.82% rush play percentage, which is the 13th highest in the league. Passing the ball hasn't been their first priority this season, and with their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, ruled out tonight, it leaves them a bit lacking in that department.
Pushing the ball downfield at a high rate with their best player doesn't seem like the path to winning. That's not mentioning the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season (1,714), making it a rather tough matchup.
When it comes to Mac Jones, he has "played" in nine games this season, but it's really eight games. I'm removing the Monday Night game against the Chicago Bears where he had only six passing attempts and was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe.
If we remove that game from his stats, in the other eight games, he's only averaging 33.25 passing attempts per game. He's barely hitting the over on this prop based on his average, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Circle back to the Patriots missing Meyers tonight, and passing the ball shouldn't be their first choice tonight.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 113.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-113)
Monday Night Football features the Arizona Cardinals hosting the New England Patriots with a 43.5-point over/under and a close 2.5-point spread.The Patriots are slight favorites in this game and considering they are in the hunt for the playoffs, it should be a rather straightforward gameplan for their offense. That means they should get the ball to their best player, Rhamondre Stevenson. With Damien Harris listed as doubtful and Jakobi Meyers listed as out, it should point to more work for Stevenson.
To this point in the season, Stevenson has a 19.4% target share, which is the second-highest on the team behind Meyers (22.1%), who is ruled out. Getting the ball via the passing game to Stevenson won't be anything new; he has racked up seven-plus targets in five of his last six games, going for at least 56 yards or more in four of those.
This should come in handy against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs this season (527).
The Patriots last played on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Harris was out due to the same thigh issue that has him listed as doubtful for tonight. In that game, Stevenson played on 53 of 54 snaps and grabbed 10 of the 11 running back rushing attempts.
Long story short, he is clearly the go-to guy in their offense when they are missing some players. Speaking of missing players, the Patriots have one offensive lineman listed as out, and two listed as questionable. If the Pats aren't able to run the ball effectively due to a depleted offensive line, it can lead them to pass the ball more, putting Stevenson in a spot for plenty of action.
All of this has Stevenson projected for 130.45 combined rushing plus receiving yards, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight.
Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Next up, let's take a look at Kyler Murray's rushing prop.There are a few things to take into account for Murray and what will cause him to run the ball more, putting him in a spot to hit the over on his prop. First off, the Patriots are a tough run defense and have allowed the fifth-fewest (954) rushing yards to running backs this season. They've been solid all season, and if the Cardinals can't get James Conner going, they are going to have to turn to the passing game.
Them passing the ball won't be too much of a surprise, they have a 61.36% pass-play percentage, which is the eighth-highest in the league. That means Murray will be dropping back often, which means he is going to be in a spot to scramble and rack up the rushing yards.
Murray should be forced out of the pocket quickly since the Patriots lead the league in quarterback hurries per dropback at 12.7%.
Not being able to pick up yards on the ground will lead the Cardinals to pass the ball more. Being under pressure and forced out of the pocket will allow Murray to scramble and pick up yards, leading to him hitting over 34.5 rushing yards tonight.
Mac Jones Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Finally, let's take under 32.5 passing attempts for Mac Jones.The Patriots are a run-first team and come in with a 43.82% rush play percentage, which is the 13th highest in the league. Passing the ball hasn't been their first priority this season, and with their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, ruled out tonight, it leaves them a bit lacking in that department.
Pushing the ball downfield at a high rate with their best player doesn't seem like the path to winning. That's not mentioning the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season (1,714), making it a rather tough matchup.
When it comes to Mac Jones, he has "played" in nine games this season, but it's really eight games. I'm removing the Monday Night game against the Chicago Bears where he had only six passing attempts and was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe.
If we remove that game from his stats, in the other eight games, he's only averaging 33.25 passing attempts per game. He's barely hitting the over on this prop based on his average, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Circle back to the Patriots missing Meyers tonight, and passing the ball shouldn't be their first choice tonight.
TNF prop ideas
George Kittle Any Time Touchdown (+220)
The San Francisco 49ers are visiting the Seattle Seahawks to start Week 15, and we're here to look at some props.
We have a modest 43.5-point over/under with the Seahawks coming in as 3.0-point home underdogs, setting up for a very close game. The 49ers are dealing with a few injuries and are going to be without Deebo Samuel for several weeks but will have Brock Purdy under center tonight. Purdy has been dealing with an oblique injury, and considering this is a short week, it may limit things in their offense.
With all of that said, I like George Kittle over 40.5 receiving yards (-114) and Kittle to find the endzone (+220).
Deebo Samuel leads the 49ers with a 24.1% target share and with him out of the lineup, there's plenty of opportunity in the passing game for other players to see an increased role. Kittle comes in with a 16.7% target share, 6.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and 18.8% red zone target share.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league versus tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most yards (736) and the fifth-most touchdowns (6). This soft matchup should put Kittle in a spot to step up and play a solid role in their offense after being held to under 30 yards in each of the last two games.
I mentioned Purdy's oblique injury above because that is something that could impact their passing game, and that is why Kittle is my favorite option tonight. While Brandon Aiyuk is also in a spot to see more usage in the passing game, Aiyuk has a 9.6 aDOT compared to Kittle with a 6.3 aDOT.
If Purdy isn't at full health, pushing the ball downfield might be an issue for him, thus leading me to Kittle, who has a lower aDOT and can provide easier check-down passes.
All of this has Kittle projected for 52.91 receiving yards, going over his receiving yards prop tonight.
While I like Kittle's receiving yards over, he can hit that while Purdy goes under his passing total of 216.5 yards. As noted, Purdy has been dealing with an oblique injury, and it may limit his ability to pass the ball, putting the 49ers in a spot to rely on the ground game.
Running the ball won't be anything new for the 49ers; they come in with a 46.80% rush play percentage, which is the 10th highest in the league. Last week, we saw that jump up to 61.02% in what was Purdy's first start. This isn't anything new for the 49ers. We've seen them in the top half of the league in rush play percentage in each season since 2018.
This has led Purdy to average just 197.5 passing yards in the last two weeks of action. It also helps that the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs this season (1,532) , making this one of the softest matchups for Christian McCaffrey.
Between the 49ers' overall offensive tendencies, Purdy's injury, and the soft defensive matchup for the run game, nothing is pointing in the direction of Purdy airing the ball out tonight; it's all about the under.
George Kittle Any Time Touchdown (+220)
George Kittle Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The San Francisco 49ers are visiting the Seattle Seahawks to start Week 15, and we're here to look at some props.We have a modest 43.5-point over/under with the Seahawks coming in as 3.0-point home underdogs, setting up for a very close game. The 49ers are dealing with a few injuries and are going to be without Deebo Samuel for several weeks but will have Brock Purdy under center tonight. Purdy has been dealing with an oblique injury, and considering this is a short week, it may limit things in their offense.
With all of that said, I like George Kittle over 40.5 receiving yards (-114) and Kittle to find the endzone (+220).
Deebo Samuel leads the 49ers with a 24.1% target share and with him out of the lineup, there's plenty of opportunity in the passing game for other players to see an increased role. Kittle comes in with a 16.7% target share, 6.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and 18.8% red zone target share.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league versus tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most yards (736) and the fifth-most touchdowns (6). This soft matchup should put Kittle in a spot to step up and play a solid role in their offense after being held to under 30 yards in each of the last two games.
I mentioned Purdy's oblique injury above because that is something that could impact their passing game, and that is why Kittle is my favorite option tonight. While Brandon Aiyuk is also in a spot to see more usage in the passing game, Aiyuk has a 9.6 aDOT compared to Kittle with a 6.3 aDOT.
If Purdy isn't at full health, pushing the ball downfield might be an issue for him, thus leading me to Kittle, who has a lower aDOT and can provide easier check-down passes.
All of this has Kittle projected for 52.91 receiving yards, going over his receiving yards prop tonight.
Brock Purdy Under 216.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Next up is Brock Purdy under 216.5 passing yards.While I like Kittle's receiving yards over, he can hit that while Purdy goes under his passing total of 216.5 yards. As noted, Purdy has been dealing with an oblique injury, and it may limit his ability to pass the ball, putting the 49ers in a spot to rely on the ground game.
Running the ball won't be anything new for the 49ers; they come in with a 46.80% rush play percentage, which is the 10th highest in the league. Last week, we saw that jump up to 61.02% in what was Purdy's first start. This isn't anything new for the 49ers. We've seen them in the top half of the league in rush play percentage in each season since 2018.
This has led Purdy to average just 197.5 passing yards in the last two weeks of action. It also helps that the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs this season (1,532) , making this one of the softest matchups for Christian McCaffrey.
Between the 49ers' overall offensive tendencies, Purdy's injury, and the soft defensive matchup for the run game, nothing is pointing in the direction of Purdy airing the ball out tonight; it's all about the under.
