More prop bets for your consideration
Cousins has the second-most passing attempts inside the ten-yard line behind Mahomes. The Vikings aren’t afraid to throw in the red zone and they’re projected for the third-most points on the main slate just behind Miami and Philadelphia.
Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
The only explanation for this low of a number is that Ryan Tannehill is questionable and if we get Malik Willis at QB then he’s going to steal some rushing upside from Henry and perhaps downgrade the offense enough to where they might struggle at times to keep drives going. Otherwise, it’s a smash play.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)
Walker has been explosive this year and has gone over 88 yards in three straight, including his huge 167 yard game last week. The Giants are giving up big chunks on the ground and Seattle is likely to feed their stud athlete often in this one.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 17.5 longest rush (-115 DK)
Walker has TD runs of 69, 34, and 74 yards in his last three games and has one longer than 18 in four of his last five games. The Giants are giving up some of the most yards per carry to opposing backs.
D’Onta Foreman over 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 DK)
Foreman is likely going to get the vast majority of touches in the backfield with Hubbard out and he’s both a solid runner and receiver. This number feels low for this spot against Atlanta.
Justin Jefferson over 89.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Jefferson has three straight 100-yard games and another great matchup this week. No reason to think he doesn’t keep it rolling with how big of a part of the weekly gameplan he is for Minnesota.
Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props
Kirk Cousins OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-150 DK)Cousins has the second-most passing attempts inside the ten-yard line behind Mahomes. The Vikings aren’t afraid to throw in the red zone and they’re projected for the third-most points on the main slate just behind Miami and Philadelphia.
Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
The only explanation for this low of a number is that Ryan Tannehill is questionable and if we get Malik Willis at QB then he’s going to steal some rushing upside from Henry and perhaps downgrade the offense enough to where they might struggle at times to keep drives going. Otherwise, it’s a smash play.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)
Walker has been explosive this year and has gone over 88 yards in three straight, including his huge 167 yard game last week. The Giants are giving up big chunks on the ground and Seattle is likely to feed their stud athlete often in this one.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 17.5 longest rush (-115 DK)
Walker has TD runs of 69, 34, and 74 yards in his last three games and has one longer than 18 in four of his last five games. The Giants are giving up some of the most yards per carry to opposing backs.
D’Onta Foreman over 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 DK)
Foreman is likely going to get the vast majority of touches in the backfield with Hubbard out and he’s both a solid runner and receiver. This number feels low for this spot against Atlanta.
Justin Jefferson over 89.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
Jefferson has three straight 100-yard games and another great matchup this week. No reason to think he doesn’t keep it rolling with how big of a part of the weekly gameplan he is for Minnesota.
I like the Cooper over recpt the best
We close out Week 8 with an AFC North battle that has plenty of factors to take into account. First off, the big news for the Bengals is that their star wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase, is out for several weeks. This is no doubt a big loss for the Bengals, but they have plenty of other talented players who can step up.
One of them would be Tee Higgins, and I like him for a touchdown tonight. To start, Higgins is playing on 61.6% of the snaps and running a route on 69.2% of dropbacks, and he has a 16.9% target share, 11.6% red zone share, and 24.3% air yards share. The air yards share is the most notable since that is now the highest on the team with Chase out.
That has led to Higgins racking up 93 yards or more in three of his last four games, along with at least 5 receptions in those four games. He's been a consistent part of the Bengals' passing offense to this point in the season and has a chance to grab some more production with Chase out.
Despite those consistent numbers, Higgins has only one touchdown over the last four games. This is no fault of his own, as the Bengals have a loaded passing offense, but the Chase injury just freed up some room for him tonight to find the end zone.
Through seven weeks, Burrow is averaging 299 yards and 38 passing attempts per game, both of which are in the league's top 10. This shouldn't be a surprise because the Bengals have a 63.11% pass play percentage, which is good for the seventh-highest.
With Ja'Marr Chase out, do I expect that rate to drop? Yes. Do expect them to completely flip their offense into a run-heavy approach? No. The pass play percentage is going to decrease a bit, but given how successful they have been in the passing game, that will always put Burrow in a spot to rack up the yards.
Speaking of yards, he's been getting plenty of those with 275 yards or more in five of the seven games this season, three of which were at 300 yards or more.
Burrow comes in projected for 282.64 yards, hitting the over on his prop tonight.
The Browns have a 47.33% rush play percentage, which is the ninth-highest in the league. This shouldn't be a surprise, as they've been a run-first team for a few seasons, and this year is nothing new. However, when they do pass the ball, it's often going in the direction of Amari Cooper, putting him in a great spot.
Cooper leads the Browns with a 26.6% target share, 38.0% air yards share, 12.6 average depth of target (aDOT), and 29.0% red zone target share. None of this is breaking news -- he's their best pass-catching option by a good margin.
That margin should only get wider with David Njoku out for a few weeks. Njoku (18.9%) is tied with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the second-highest target share on the team. This should consolidate much of the passing work around Cooper and DPJ.
With the Browns coming in as 3.5-point underdogs, they could be trailing in this game and pushed into a passing game script. All of this has Cooper projected for 5.14 receptions, which has him cashing the over on his reception total tonight.
Tee Higgins Any Time Touchdown (+100)
The Cincinnati Bengals have a strong 24.50 implied team total tonight when they visit the Cleveland Browns.We close out Week 8 with an AFC North battle that has plenty of factors to take into account. First off, the big news for the Bengals is that their star wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase, is out for several weeks. This is no doubt a big loss for the Bengals, but they have plenty of other talented players who can step up.
One of them would be Tee Higgins, and I like him for a touchdown tonight. To start, Higgins is playing on 61.6% of the snaps and running a route on 69.2% of dropbacks, and he has a 16.9% target share, 11.6% red zone share, and 24.3% air yards share. The air yards share is the most notable since that is now the highest on the team with Chase out.
That has led to Higgins racking up 93 yards or more in three of his last four games, along with at least 5 receptions in those four games. He's been a consistent part of the Bengals' passing offense to this point in the season and has a chance to grab some more production with Chase out.
Despite those consistent numbers, Higgins has only one touchdown over the last four games. This is no fault of his own, as the Bengals have a loaded passing offense, but the Chase injury just freed up some room for him tonight to find the end zone.
Joe Burrow Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Joe Burrow has been super consistent for the Bengals, and I'm going with the over on his passing yards tonight.Through seven weeks, Burrow is averaging 299 yards and 38 passing attempts per game, both of which are in the league's top 10. This shouldn't be a surprise because the Bengals have a 63.11% pass play percentage, which is good for the seventh-highest.
With Ja'Marr Chase out, do I expect that rate to drop? Yes. Do expect them to completely flip their offense into a run-heavy approach? No. The pass play percentage is going to decrease a bit, but given how successful they have been in the passing game, that will always put Burrow in a spot to rack up the yards.
Speaking of yards, he's been getting plenty of those with 275 yards or more in five of the seven games this season, three of which were at 300 yards or more.
Burrow comes in projected for 282.64 yards, hitting the over on his prop tonight.
Amari Cooper Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
Finally, let's look at over 4.5 receptions for Amari Cooper tonight.The Browns have a 47.33% rush play percentage, which is the ninth-highest in the league. This shouldn't be a surprise, as they've been a run-first team for a few seasons, and this year is nothing new. However, when they do pass the ball, it's often going in the direction of Amari Cooper, putting him in a great spot.
Cooper leads the Browns with a 26.6% target share, 38.0% air yards share, 12.6 average depth of target (aDOT), and 29.0% red zone target share. None of this is breaking news -- he's their best pass-catching option by a good margin.
That margin should only get wider with David Njoku out for a few weeks. Njoku (18.9%) is tied with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the second-highest target share on the team. This should consolidate much of the passing work around Cooper and DPJ.
With the Browns coming in as 3.5-point underdogs, they could be trailing in this game and pushed into a passing game script. All of this has Cooper projected for 5.14 receptions, which has him cashing the over on his reception total tonight.
A handful of prop bets with write up to consider
The Chicago offense is all of the sudden clicking and they have allowed Fields (even started to design him running plays) to run. With 88, 82, and 60 yards rushing the last three weeks he’s been a major part of their running game, even hitting double-digit carries twice.
Deon Jackson UNDER 55.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Jackson is going to be the feature back for the Colts, but will they actually be able to run the ball? Last week the Patriots held the Jets to just 51 yards on the ground and the lack of passing game from Indianapolis means they can stack the box here against the Colts, too. Jackson is averaging just 3.3 YPC this season and is much better as a pass catcher, than ball carrier. It feels weird to go under such a small number, but Jackson in his two spot starts this year has averaged 12.5 carries for just 52 yards.
D’Onta Foreman OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
I am going right back to this prop! Foreman carried it 26 times last week for over 100 yards and the Panthers are likely to feed him again this week. The Bengals run defense is trending in the wrong direction, allowing a league-high 169 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 23.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
His last two games have yielded 8-59 and 7-72 in the passing game for the now lead back of the Patriots. Throwing to their backs is a big part of their offense and fits Stevenson’s skillset incredibly well. This number is really low considering the increase in snap share that he’s had as he’s taken control of this backfield.
Justin Herbert OVER 281.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
After a few down weeks in his yardage total, Herbert threw for 293 last week and now he gets the absolute best possible matchup for a QB against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the most passing yards per game (307) and that has been gashed recently to the tune of an average of 354 yards per game over their last three. I mean, this secondary gave up big plays to…PJ Walker of all people! I know Herbert is down both his top receivers, but he will still be slinging it to his backs, tight ends, and backup wideouts aplenty in a game that could shoot out.
Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Jefferson’s number went down a few yards this week, but he faces another depleted secondary and a potential “pass funnel” defense that will attempt to force Cousins to throw it to beat them. The Vikings have no problem airing it out and Jefferson can roast just about any corner in the league, let alone the mediocre defenders he will face Sunday.
Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props
Justin Fields OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-130 DK)The Chicago offense is all of the sudden clicking and they have allowed Fields (even started to design him running plays) to run. With 88, 82, and 60 yards rushing the last three weeks he’s been a major part of their running game, even hitting double-digit carries twice.
Deon Jackson UNDER 55.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Jackson is going to be the feature back for the Colts, but will they actually be able to run the ball? Last week the Patriots held the Jets to just 51 yards on the ground and the lack of passing game from Indianapolis means they can stack the box here against the Colts, too. Jackson is averaging just 3.3 YPC this season and is much better as a pass catcher, than ball carrier. It feels weird to go under such a small number, but Jackson in his two spot starts this year has averaged 12.5 carries for just 52 yards.
D’Onta Foreman OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
I am going right back to this prop! Foreman carried it 26 times last week for over 100 yards and the Panthers are likely to feed him again this week. The Bengals run defense is trending in the wrong direction, allowing a league-high 169 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 23.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
His last two games have yielded 8-59 and 7-72 in the passing game for the now lead back of the Patriots. Throwing to their backs is a big part of their offense and fits Stevenson’s skillset incredibly well. This number is really low considering the increase in snap share that he’s had as he’s taken control of this backfield.
Justin Herbert OVER 281.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
After a few down weeks in his yardage total, Herbert threw for 293 last week and now he gets the absolute best possible matchup for a QB against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the most passing yards per game (307) and that has been gashed recently to the tune of an average of 354 yards per game over their last three. I mean, this secondary gave up big plays to…PJ Walker of all people! I know Herbert is down both his top receivers, but he will still be slinging it to his backs, tight ends, and backup wideouts aplenty in a game that could shoot out.
Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Jefferson’s number went down a few yards this week, but he faces another depleted secondary and a potential “pass funnel” defense that will attempt to force Cousins to throw it to beat them. The Vikings have no problem airing it out and Jefferson can roast just about any corner in the league, let alone the mediocre defenders he will face Sunday.
Some interesting props to consider
Our player projection model has Kamara at an expected 0.81 touchdowns scored (combining rushing and receiving), which is significantly higher than any other player tonight. With Mark Ingram out tonight and the possibility of a higher-scoring game than expected, even at minus odds, betting that Kamara crosses the goal line tonight is a great idea.
Next, let’s take Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +108 odds. Lamar has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of eight games. Yes, Mark Andrews is out tonight, but the Ravens' offense has had time to prepare Isaiah Likely for a larger role this week. Lamar is projected to throw for 1.83 touchdowns via our projection model.
You may be thinking, “I like plus odds, but what about really long odds?”
Are +1100 odds long enough for you? Those are Rashid Shaheed's anytime touchdown odds, and I think that bet is definitely worth a sprinkle.
Shaheed has been getting more involved in the offense over the last three weeks. His offensive snap percentage going from 13% in Week 6 to 23% last week. With Jarvis Landry listed as questionable and a limited participant in practice all week, opportunities for the speedy Shaheed should still be there.
Player Prop Value Bets
This week’s player prop bets are all about touchdowns. Alvin Kamara scored his first three touchdowns of the season last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. His anytime touchdown odds are -110, which I think is influenced by an always lingering Taysom Hill vulture -- and the fact he went without a touchdown until last week.Our player projection model has Kamara at an expected 0.81 touchdowns scored (combining rushing and receiving), which is significantly higher than any other player tonight. With Mark Ingram out tonight and the possibility of a higher-scoring game than expected, even at minus odds, betting that Kamara crosses the goal line tonight is a great idea.
Next, let’s take Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +108 odds. Lamar has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of eight games. Yes, Mark Andrews is out tonight, but the Ravens' offense has had time to prepare Isaiah Likely for a larger role this week. Lamar is projected to throw for 1.83 touchdowns via our projection model.
You may be thinking, “I like plus odds, but what about really long odds?”
Are +1100 odds long enough for you? Those are Rashid Shaheed's anytime touchdown odds, and I think that bet is definitely worth a sprinkle.
Shaheed has been getting more involved in the offense over the last three weeks. His offensive snap percentage going from 13% in Week 6 to 23% last week. With Jarvis Landry listed as questionable and a limited participant in practice all week, opportunities for the speedy Shaheed should still be there.
I will bet on Olave over for sure......Jackson total has gone up a little so still considering that one
Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Let's close out Week 9 with some player props as the New Orleans Saints are hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
This game features a solid 46.5-point total, and the home Saints set at 1.5-point underdogs. The Saints' offense has been cookin' this season, averaging 394 yards per game with nearly 25 points per game. They are a perfect spot to look for some player props.
We can turn to Chris Olave for a touchdown prop (+150) and over 64.5 receiving yards. The rookie wide receiver has played a solid role in the Saints' passing game, which should get him to the yardage prop, so let's dive in.
To this point in the season, Olave has played on 66.2% of the offensive snaps and is running a route on 84.0% of drop backs. He owns team-highs with a 26.3% target share, 42.2% air yards market share, 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT). He's got the second-highest (23.3%) red zone target share.
The 42.2% air yards share is most notable for Olave in regards to the over 64.5 receiving yards since the player with the next highest air yards share is Tre'Quan Smith at only 16.0%. This means when the Saints take shots downfield for big plays, Olave is the number-one option by a longshot.
The matchup against the Ravens' secondary is a very good one as Baltimore has allowed the third-most (1,584) receiving yards to wide receivers this season as well as the sixth-most (8) touchdowns.
All of this should put Olave in a great spot to have big plays downfield to help his yardage prop and find his way into the end zone.
No, this isn't a CVS receipt, this is the Ravens' injury report for tonight's game. Mark Andrews is out. Rashod Bateman is out for the year. J.K. Dobbins is out. Gus Edwards is doubtful. Demarcus Robinson is questionable. This puts their offense in a very questionable spot outside of one player, Lamar Jackson.
I'm not saying Jackson is going to have to turn into Superman tonight for the Ravens to win this game, but it certainly feels that way. But what does Jackson playing Superman look like? What does entail? How would the Ravens win this game with the lack of talent and consistency around Jackson? It likely means Jackson is going to improvise a ton -- on top of the Ravens' normal offensive tendencies.
The Ravens come in with a 48.15% rush play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league. This is nothing new, they've leaned on the rushing game over the past few years, but Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill don't scream upside, especially against a Saints defense that allows the 11th-fewest (116.0) rushing yards per game.
In no surprise, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 32.50 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.51 Rushing NEP per carry, which is the third-highest among quarterbacks with at least 30 rushing attempts.
This should put Jackson in a spot to continuously carry the offense -- no pun intended -- both from his normal rushing plays along with improvised scrambles due to the lack of pass-catching consistency around him. This should lead to over 58.5 rushing yards for Jackson tonight.
Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chris Olave Any Time Touchdown (+150)
Let's close out Week 9 with some player props as the New Orleans Saints are hosting the Baltimore Ravens. This game features a solid 46.5-point total, and the home Saints set at 1.5-point underdogs. The Saints' offense has been cookin' this season, averaging 394 yards per game with nearly 25 points per game. They are a perfect spot to look for some player props.
We can turn to Chris Olave for a touchdown prop (+150) and over 64.5 receiving yards. The rookie wide receiver has played a solid role in the Saints' passing game, which should get him to the yardage prop, so let's dive in.
To this point in the season, Olave has played on 66.2% of the offensive snaps and is running a route on 84.0% of drop backs. He owns team-highs with a 26.3% target share, 42.2% air yards market share, 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT). He's got the second-highest (23.3%) red zone target share.
The 42.2% air yards share is most notable for Olave in regards to the over 64.5 receiving yards since the player with the next highest air yards share is Tre'Quan Smith at only 16.0%. This means when the Saints take shots downfield for big plays, Olave is the number-one option by a longshot.
The matchup against the Ravens' secondary is a very good one as Baltimore has allowed the third-most (1,584) receiving yards to wide receivers this season as well as the sixth-most (8) touchdowns.
All of this should put Olave in a great spot to have big plays downfield to help his yardage prop and find his way into the end zone.
Lamar Jackson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
When it comes to the Ravens, they are decimated by injuries, and that's putting it nicely.No, this isn't a CVS receipt, this is the Ravens' injury report for tonight's game. Mark Andrews is out. Rashod Bateman is out for the year. J.K. Dobbins is out. Gus Edwards is doubtful. Demarcus Robinson is questionable. This puts their offense in a very questionable spot outside of one player, Lamar Jackson.
I'm not saying Jackson is going to have to turn into Superman tonight for the Ravens to win this game, but it certainly feels that way. But what does Jackson playing Superman look like? What does entail? How would the Ravens win this game with the lack of talent and consistency around Jackson? It likely means Jackson is going to improvise a ton -- on top of the Ravens' normal offensive tendencies.
The Ravens come in with a 48.15% rush play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league. This is nothing new, they've leaned on the rushing game over the past few years, but Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill don't scream upside, especially against a Saints defense that allows the 11th-fewest (116.0) rushing yards per game.
In no surprise, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 32.50 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.51 Rushing NEP per carry, which is the third-highest among quarterbacks with at least 30 rushing attempts.
This should put Jackson in a spot to continuously carry the offense -- no pun intended -- both from his normal rushing plays along with improvised scrambles due to the lack of pass-catching consistency around him. This should lead to over 58.5 rushing yards for Jackson tonight.
PJ Walker over 11.25 fantasy points looks pretty good.
He only has to throw for 200 and a TD to cover. He could also throw for 285without a TD and cover, not to mention if he runs for a little that will add up.
Last game
The Falcons' D has given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers , nearly 21, so the matchup is a good one. In the previous game against Atlanta, Walker threw for 317 yards and ran for another 20
He only has to throw for 200 and a TD to cover. He could also throw for 285without a TD and cover, not to mention if he runs for a little that will add up.
Last game
The Falcons' D has given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers , nearly 21, so the matchup is a good one. In the previous game against Atlanta, Walker threw for 317 yards and ran for another 20
This one looks pretty good
Pete Carroll talked about “cutting Kenneth Walker loose” in Week 9 and the rookie running back finished with career-highs in carries (26), targets (4), catches (3), and receiving yards (20). It’s his involvement in the passing game that has me the most excited about his Week 10 prop outlook.
Since Week 6, Walker leads the Seahawks' backfield in targets with nine, while DeeJay Dallas has become irrelevant in the passing game and Travis Homer has four targets over two weeks on roughly 25% of the snaps.
Walker is the man in Seattle now and his role in the passing game could be growing as he gets more comfortable with pass protection. Walker didn’t do much pass-catching in college, but Pete Carroll has been raving about his creativity and compared him to LaDainian Tomlinson this week.
If he sees even half of the targets he got last week, he has a great shot at topping his receiving yard total of 10.5 yards.
The potential game script is also in our favor here with the Bucs moving to 3-point favorites in some spots.
Kenneth Walker Prop: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
K9 to Air Bud
Pete Carroll talked about “cutting Kenneth Walker loose” in Week 9 and the rookie running back finished with career-highs in carries (26), targets (4), catches (3), and receiving yards (20). It’s his involvement in the passing game that has me the most excited about his Week 10 prop outlook.
Since Week 6, Walker leads the Seahawks' backfield in targets with nine, while DeeJay Dallas has become irrelevant in the passing game and Travis Homer has four targets over two weeks on roughly 25% of the snaps.
Walker is the man in Seattle now and his role in the passing game could be growing as he gets more comfortable with pass protection. Walker didn’t do much pass-catching in college, but Pete Carroll has been raving about his creativity and compared him to LaDainian Tomlinson this week.
If he sees even half of the targets he got last week, he has a great shot at topping his receiving yard total of 10.5 yards.
The potential game script is also in our favor here with the Bucs moving to 3-point favorites in some spots.
Kenneth Walker Prop: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
MNF Props
DeVonta Smith Any Time Touchdown (+200)
The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Washington Commanders to close out Week 10, and we want to look at some player props tonight.
The undefeated Eagles are 11.5-point home favorites, and the game total is set at 43.5 points. The Eagles boast one of the league's best offenses, and we want to hone in on some player props that have value tonight.
There are plenty of viable offensive options for the Eagles, and I'm turning to DeVonta Smith for a touchdown (+200) and over 52.5 receiving yards (-113). The Eagles are rocking a 27.0-point implied total, an indication their offense should be putting up points -- as usual.
Smith comes in with a strong 23.3% target share and 27.6% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest on the team behind A.J. Brown. Smith is also playing on 90.4% of the snaps and running a route on 95.8% of dropbacks, both of which are the highest on the Eagles. He also owns a 21.0% red zone target share, the third-highest on the team.
Despite seeing elite offensive usage, Smith has been over this 52.5-yard mark only once in the last four games and has just one touchdown in that span. While the production is lacking, he still maintains a large role in Philly's passing offense and has a favorable matchup tonight to capitalize on it.
The Commanders have allowed the ninth-most (1,564) receiving yards and the fifth-most (9) touchdowns to wide receivers this season, something Smith knows plenty about. In Week 3, Smith torched the Commanders' secondary for 8 receptions, 169 yards, and a score.
We have Smith projected for 59.75 receiving yards, putting him over his yardage prop, and in a game where the Eagles should score plenty, Smith's strong offensive role should put him in a spot to find the end zone after failing to reach it in three of the last four games.
The Eagles are large 11.5-point favorites, which should put them in a position to run the ball and control the clock. But that doesn't necessarily mean Sanders is in an amazing matchup.
First off, this might not be a bloodbath. The Eagles are taking only 57% of the bets on the spread, a rather interestingly low number for the NFL's lone undefeated team. The Commanders have covered the spread in three of their last four games, with a push last week. They have been keeping games close all while their defense has allowed the 10th-fewest (766) rushing yards to running backs this season.
If the Commanders keep the game close, this should limit the number of rushing attempts Sanders will see. Plus, Sanders' rushing share is only at 42.4% for the Eagles, which is tied with Jalen Hurts' rushing share. We also see Kenneth Gainwell in the mix with a 10.2% rushing share, taking away a few carries here and there.
Sanders has been good this season, but this isn't the best matchup for him to pound the rock time after time. He's projected for 14.28 rushing attempts, so our model has him hitting the under on this prop tonight.
DeVonta Smith Any Time Touchdown (+200)
DeVonta Smith Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Washington Commanders to close out Week 10, and we want to look at some player props tonight. The undefeated Eagles are 11.5-point home favorites, and the game total is set at 43.5 points. The Eagles boast one of the league's best offenses, and we want to hone in on some player props that have value tonight.
There are plenty of viable offensive options for the Eagles, and I'm turning to DeVonta Smith for a touchdown (+200) and over 52.5 receiving yards (-113). The Eagles are rocking a 27.0-point implied total, an indication their offense should be putting up points -- as usual.
Smith comes in with a strong 23.3% target share and 27.6% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest on the team behind A.J. Brown. Smith is also playing on 90.4% of the snaps and running a route on 95.8% of dropbacks, both of which are the highest on the Eagles. He also owns a 21.0% red zone target share, the third-highest on the team.
Despite seeing elite offensive usage, Smith has been over this 52.5-yard mark only once in the last four games and has just one touchdown in that span. While the production is lacking, he still maintains a large role in Philly's passing offense and has a favorable matchup tonight to capitalize on it.
The Commanders have allowed the ninth-most (1,564) receiving yards and the fifth-most (9) touchdowns to wide receivers this season, something Smith knows plenty about. In Week 3, Smith torched the Commanders' secondary for 8 receptions, 169 yards, and a score.
We have Smith projected for 59.75 receiving yards, putting him over his yardage prop, and in a game where the Eagles should score plenty, Smith's strong offensive role should put him in a spot to find the end zone after failing to reach it in three of the last four games.
Miles Sanders Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-122)
Next up, Miles Sanders going under 15.5 rushing attempts tonight.The Eagles are large 11.5-point favorites, which should put them in a position to run the ball and control the clock. But that doesn't necessarily mean Sanders is in an amazing matchup.
First off, this might not be a bloodbath. The Eagles are taking only 57% of the bets on the spread, a rather interestingly low number for the NFL's lone undefeated team. The Commanders have covered the spread in three of their last four games, with a push last week. They have been keeping games close all while their defense has allowed the 10th-fewest (766) rushing yards to running backs this season.
If the Commanders keep the game close, this should limit the number of rushing attempts Sanders will see. Plus, Sanders' rushing share is only at 42.4% for the Eagles, which is tied with Jalen Hurts' rushing share. We also see Kenneth Gainwell in the mix with a 10.2% rushing share, taking away a few carries here and there.
Sanders has been good this season, but this isn't the best matchup for him to pound the rock time after time. He's projected for 14.28 rushing attempts, so our model has him hitting the under on this prop tonight.
