Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Wednesday Updated Analysis
Get a 20% winnings boost on Keeneland win bets today (up to $20) with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET as part of its Wins-Day Wednesday promotion. Key plays for me today come in Races 3, 6 & 8 and note the Race 8 finale has a $50K carryover in the Super Hi 5. We’ll key hard there on our 20-1 ML tab #5 Sardis and a very logical favorite in #7 Cameo Performance.Here are my updated picks after scratches (we lost a few second-choices, but no top picks from our original thoughts).
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Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 8, 2025
What to Watch for Today: Week 2 of the Keeneland Fall Meet opens with an 8-race card that concludes with a $50,244 carryover in the Toyota Super High 5. We’ll see if trainers Brendan Walsh (5 wins), Todd Pletcher (5) and Wesley Ward (4) continue their frenetic pace to open the stand. With an 8-race card, pay close attention to Races 4 and 5 as they appear as keystone races in the multi-race bets both early and late. There is no Keeneland Turf Pick 3 on this card with 2 grass races scheduled.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter/X @Keenelandracing and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Overnight rains Monday into Tuesday are expected to cool temperatures. Dry skies, temps in the upper 60s are in the forecast for Wednesday. Should be fast and firm and perhaps the main track a bit tighter/faster with the extra moisture.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers start the early pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Churchill preppers dominate with 40 of the 112 victories in Fall Meet N2L claimers over the years, no other circuit more than 12 (Ellis, next-best Indy with 10). Churchill reps here include Cool Andy and Anthonian, the former a son of sharp Kee dirt sire Practical Joke and should show some inside speed (Palagio is also sired by Practical Joke in this race). Well-bred Protective takes a class drop and not the horse who beat him at Saratoga last out (Tap Into This) already has come to Keeneland to win this meeting. The average winner in 21 such races at this class and distance is 1-3/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, so you don’t want to be rallying from the clouds historically. About a third of these race winners in N2L claimers made surface changes from turf or synthetic, so while it’s not preferred, it’s not a big hindrance.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 opener is a 6-furlong maiden claimer on dirt. We’ve had 102 such MCL sprints at this trip and first-time starters have only 17 of the wins, so lean to experience. Churchill preppers dominate with 39 wins with no other circuit more than 7 (Ellis Park, Indy). The average winner is 6-1 with favorites slightly underperforming at just under 32%. Trainer Al Stall won a race opening week and drops Didn’t It Rain in class as the likely chalk. Sire Omaha Beach has been outstanding with his offspring on the Kee dirt (26% winners last 4 years), so this one could be effective. Cloud Number Nine and Complex Trick are the lone CD preppers here and the former looks most likely to improve in their respective second career starts.
3rd Race
Starter allowance routers battle to start the pick 6. We’ve had 23 such races in fall meets with 9 winning favorites and an average winner 7-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 10 of those wins (4 for Indy next-best). Of the 23 winners, 18 prepped at a mile or longer last out and the average winner is just 1-1/4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Five of the 8 here exit CD preps, including top choice Ultimate Strike. He’s run two good seconds here at Keeneland, including last year’s infamous maiden where he was easily best and jockey Luan Machado was not aware of the finish line placement and stopped riding. The 7-5 morning line favorite here Laughnowcrylater is a non-winner of 2 lifetime running against rivals all with 2 wins, so I’d not be inclined to take too short of a price, though he looks viable on paper.
4th Race
The late pick 5 begins here in a race that overlaps in the early pick 4 and pick as well. Two-year-old maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt. We’ve had 36 Fall Meet MCL dirt routes, with 50% (18) going to favorites. Of these 36 winners, 26 exited a maiden special weight race on the class drop. There’s been no edge to having an existing route prep. Churchill has a massive 17-4 edge over other circuits in terms of final prep (Indy second-best). In a perfect world, you’d hang on a Churchill MSW dropper, but only Moonwalk fits that bill and showed absolutely nothing to embrace in his only start. The also-eligibles look very dangerous here if they draw in, so keep an eye on the changes: particularly Stepnoski on the MSW drop for red-hot Brendan Walsh and Consequential from Churchill for a Kenny McPeek barn that’s 17: 4-5-2 with 2YO MCL routers at Keeneland over the years (McPeek also has C.P.A, Jim in this field). I’ll keep an eye on the changes and tote before this one.
5th Race
The swing race to all the day’s multi-race wagers is this $32,000 mid-level claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. It’s part of the early and late pick 5, early and late pick 4 and the pick 6. We’ve had 24 previous Fall Meet dirt claimers in the $25,000-$50,000 open range going around 2 turns. Favorites have won only 4 of those, but the average winner is 5-1 and none over 15-1 – these have been very good betting races. Horses prepped at Churchill have 14 of the 24 wins (Saratoga next-best with just 3). Only 3 of the winners led after the first half-mile with an average winner 2-3/4 lengths back at that juncture. 20 of 23 winners exited preps at a mile or longer, Eastside Cool fits the trends best out of a CD route, while Saratoga prepped Trident Hit and Magnolia Midnight attract a lot of my attention here.
6th Race
Maiden special weight turfers extend to 1-1/8 miles in this one. We’ve had 13 such races for elders at this grass distance in Fall Meets in our database. Favorites are 6-13. Kentucky Downs has produced 4 winners, then 2 each for Churchill, Saratoga, Ellis. Eight of 13 winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer last out and all 13 at a mile or farther. Five of these runners all exit the same Sept. 7 Kentucky Downs race and are difficult to separate. Kicking Clear is a fresh face from that group, exiting an Aug. 31 KD event and he ran a decent race here in the Spring Meet vs. similar. As hot as the Brendan Walsh-Tyler Gaffalione combo is at Keeneland, that’s going to put me in their corner in this one.
7th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters go 7 furlongs. Last weekend’s first 4 allowance races on dirt for the meet were all won by horses 5-2 or less odds. But overall 7F N1X ALW sprints like this in Fall Meets are very average in results – 9-28 favorites with an average winner 9-2 odds … right where you want them. Of those 28 races, 25 winners exited dirt preps and 18 came out of sprints vs. 10 from routes. The winners are evenly split between NY (Saratoga/Belmont) with 12 and Churchill with 10. There aren’t any NYRA preppers here and the CD reps are Cervaro Della Sala (under leading Kee 7F jockey Luis Saez) and No What Ifs. Pretty Sure is a very well-bred daughter of Beautician, second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and fourth in the Kentucky Oaks. Her trainer Brendan Walsh was on point with everything opening week and adds blinkers for the first time. She’s the pick.
8th Race
The finale is a second-level (N2X) allowance turf route at 1-1/16 miles and represents the $50,244 carryover in the Toyota Super Hi 5. Favorites hit 31% in such Fall races historically with an average winner 6-1 odds. The average winner is 3 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 20% of the races won by the leader at that stage. Kentucky Downs (28) and NYRA (25) account more than half the winners on nearly even terms. Longshot look here to Sardis, runner-up in a maiden race here in the Spring and coming off a 2-race win streak, most recently at KD. Mike Maker’s 9 wins are the most of any trainer in 1-1/16 miles turf ALW races in the Fall. Cameo Appearance drops in class from the Tapit Stakes at KD when the winner Lagynos absolutely freaked and this gelding ran a solid third considering. I won’t try to get past that pair on top, but respect the class of Mountain Bear and Wyoming Bill when building out those Super Hi 5 tickets.
