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Let's go Brandon!
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Let's go Brandon!
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Ellis Park $172K Carryover Pick 6/Mandatory Payout Analysis for Monday

By Jeremy Plonk

Ellis Park’s closing day card for the 2025 season boasts a $172,617 carryover in the pick 6. The mandatory provision-payout is in play with a 20-cent base minimum bet. The sequence runs Races 4-9 and gets underway around 2:16 pm ET.

Race 4
Between trainer changes off the claim and class droppers, this is a tough-to-read group of 8 that will require some coverage for me. #2 Protonmagic moves from 4% and 8% barns to an outfit that wins 30% off the claim from nearly its last 100 starters. #1 Little Blaze and #4 Beau Soleil have been facing tougher, and it’s noteworthy that big class drops at the very end of a racing meet are typical when a win-and-claim can be the best financial outcome vs. shipping costs and fighting for stall space at the next destination. Then there’s #8 What’s Crackin, who simply fits and belongs at the level after a good second vs. similar as the favorite last out.

Race 5
We’ll narrow the ticket later, but for now it’s another spread option in this turf sprint maiden for 2-year-olds. Horses with experience have nearly a 2X win rate (15% vs. 8%) in these races at Ellis Park this season. #3 Diamondintherough (10-1 ML) goes for a Chris Hartman barn that’s historically finished strong closing weekend at Ellis before the scene shifts in the past. Trainer Brian Lynch has had a big meet and is red-hot of late, so #10 Practically Famous tries turf after 2 decent bids, while #4 Storm’s Wake is the most interesting rookie in the cast with Nik Juarez aboard, one of the most successful turf riders at the current meet. Jaime Torres also has had a fantastic turf meet and pilots second-timer Gold Case worth a look. First-timer #5 Carolannie has the Cox-Gaffalione connections to respect and a bullet workout Aug. 16 from the gate, not insignificant for a 2-year-old filly.

Race 6
#5 Greek Heiress comes off a smashing, career-best win and a repeat of that wins this race for fun like the last 5+ length score. She’s won 5 of 7 since coming to Lindsay Shultz’s barn. Her last 2 wins were followed up by losses, which gives life to #2 Swiftwind, who has won 3 straight . That Steve Asmussen also entered Tiz Purple, who hasn’t raced since November, to help fill the field is a sign that he really wants Swifthand to get another shot while hot before the meet ends.

Race 7
When 2-year-olds go a mile trip at Ellis in maiden company, experienced horses have a 24-4 edge in wins over rookies the past 5 years. I’ll fully focus on those who’ve run, namely #3 Instant Impact as my key to the sequence. Trainer Kenny McPeek is 2-for-2 at the meet with 2-year-olds at the mile trip and has 9 such wins over the last 5 years at Ellis – no other trainer has more than 3. Exits a sprint debut at Saratoga that was more respectable when runner-up Chalky White returned to win at the Spa earlier this week. The obvious other consideration among the experienced is #5 Maximus Prime, second at Keeneland and Churchill’s Kentucky Juvenile Stakes as an early season freshman. He’s the back-up plan, but won’t be doubling the ticket cost to include on the primary ticket.

Race 8
In the featured $150,000 Ellis Park Turf Stakes, I’m standing against 7-5 morning line favorite #8 Everland. She has a class edge, but has won just 1 of her last 12 and has never hit the board in 5 turf tries. #7 Next Up (10-1 ML) has done nothing wrong in 4 tries, over 3 different surfaces both short and around 2 turns. Matt Sims sharpened her with a fast half-mile at Keeneland. #2 Hope Mission stacks up well with these after an even, modest try in stakes company in Indy for Walsh-Gaffalione connections you have to respect (winning 31% locally).

Race 9
First-timers have struggled to win in elder maiden claiming turf routes at Ellis over the past 5 years, so lean to experience in the finale. That’s significant when Cox-Gaffalione have a runner that will take money. I mentioned earlier about Chris Hartman’s success winning races late in the Ellis stand before it toughens at Kentucky Downs, Churchill and Keeneland through December. He’s got both #2 Reya Sunshine and #11 Hope Restored here to watch. Add in #8 Reading Time for a Peter Eurton barn that won a similar race here Aug. 8.

Suggested ticket
2,1,8,4 with 3,10,2,4,5 with 5,2 with 3 with 7,2 with 2,11,8 = $48 for each 20-cent play
 

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Toby Turrell - Del Mar 8/24
 

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Let's go Brandon!
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Newsletter Tracking (last year's final records for reference)



Gridiron Gold Sheet (no update)
NCAA (34-34-1)
NFL (35-32-3)

Bondi Bulletin (no update)
2* NCAA (6-5-1)
1* NCAA (14-19-2)
2* NFL (6-6-1)
1* NFL (12-14-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (no update)
"Top Play" (1-0-0)
5* (6-8-0)
4* (9-5-0)
3* (8-6-0)
Upset pick (11-9-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (6-11-1)
Awesome Angle (13-9-0)
Incredible Stat (4-11-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
Super Bowl pick: (1-0-0)
5* (11-7-0)
4* (5-13-0)
3* (6-11-1)

Pointwise NCAA (no update)
1* (19-11-1)
2* (11-9-0)
3* (9-8-0)
4* (19-15-0)
5* (20-15-1)

Pointwise NFL
2* (2-0-1)
3* (8-17-0) (lost with KC -1.5)
4* (18-17-1)
5* (15-22-1)

Power Sweep NCAA (no update)
4* (14-4-1)
3* (22-17-0)
2* (21-17-2)
Underdog Play of the Week (7-7-0)
Tech Play of the Week (5-4-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (10-4-0)
Situational Play of the Week (6-4-0)
Series Play of the Week (4-6-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (7-12-1)
3* (8-13-0)
2* (14-10-0) (lost with KC -1)
3* o/u play (10-8-0)
Power Rating POW (5-6-0)

Power Plays (no update)
NCAA 4.5* (24-15-0)
NCAA 4* (49-39-3)
NFL 4* (7-10-0)

Red Sheet (no update)
90* (0-0-0)
89* (9-19-0)
88* (28-14-1)
NFL 88* (5-7-1)

Sports Reporter (no update)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (21-24-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (13-17-3)

Winning Points (no update)
NCAA 4* (4-7-0)
NCAA 3* (5-6-0)
NFL 4* (4-7-0)
NFL 3* (6-4-1)

King’s Totals Tipsheet (no update)
10* GOY (0-1-0)
3* (8-9-0)
2* (15-20-0)
1* (1-0-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (3-5-1)
1* (16-11-0)

Gold Sheet NCAA (no update)
Key Releases (11-21-1)
Priority Picks (10-15-0)
Tech Plays (14-8-0)

Gold Sheet NFL
Key Releases (21-16-1) (lost with KC -2)
Priority Picks (8-16-1)
Tech Plays (10-12-1)

Powers' Ratings NCAA (no update)
(can't really track his main plays this year)
Top Computer Play (6-8-0)

Inside the Press Box NCAA (no update)
Phil's Best Bets (32-30-1)
Phil's FCS Best Bets (0-2-0)
Computer Best Bets (31-22-1)

Inside the Press Box NFL (no update)
Phil’s Best Bets (20-27-2)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)



Feel free to point out any typos or grading errors
 

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Newsletter Tracking (through 8/24/2025)

**First update of the season, with a few "Week 0" plays from the newsletters**

The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.

Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy.

I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.

After a few weeks, I'll color-code the hottest and coldest records. Usually just anything hitting/missing around 70% or more with a reasonable sample.



Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA (1-3-0)
NFL (0-0-0)

Bondi Bulletin
2* NCAA (0-0-0)
1* NCAA (0-0-0)
2* NFL (0-0-0)
1* NFL (0-0-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (0-0-0)
4* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
Upset pick (1-0-0) won with (Hawaii +2.5)
Betcha Didn't Know (0-0-0)
Awesome Angle (0-0-0)
Incredible Stat (0-0-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (0-0-0)
4* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
4* (0-0-0)
5* (0-0-0)

Pointwise NFL
2* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
4* (0-0-0)
5* (0-0-0)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
2* (1-0-0 (won with W. Ky -10.5)
Underdog Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Tech Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Situational Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Series Play of the Week (0-0-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
3* o/u play (0-0-0)
Power Rating POW (0-0-0)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (0-0-0)
NCAA 4* (0-0-0)
NFL 4* (0-0-0)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (0-0-0)
88* (0-0-0)
NFL 88* (0-0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-0-0)
NCAA 3* (0-0-0)
NFL 4* (0-0-0)
NFL 3* (0-0-0)

King’s Totals Tipsheet
10* GOY (0-0-0)
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)

Gold Sheet NCAA
Key Releases (1-0-0) (won with W. Ky Over 61.5)
Priority Picks (0-0-0)
Tech Plays (0-0-0)

Gold Sheet NFL
Key Releases (0-0-0)
Priority Picks (0-0-0)
Tech Plays (0-0-0)

Powers' Ratings NCAA
(no actual best bets in his newsletter again this year)
Top Computer Play (1-0-0) (won with Kansas -13.5)

Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (1-0-0) (won with Iowa State +3)
Phil's FCS Best Bets (0-0-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)

Inside the Press Box NFL
Phil’s Best Bets (0-0-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)



Feel free to point out any typos or grading errors
 

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