Pat Patriot said:
If it is the first game in a series I bet to win a unit if it is negative juice. Positive juice I risk a unit.
2nd game- I take the amount lost add a unit to that then select the Win selection at Pinny. So if it is negative juice or positive juice it doesn't matter because I am still after winning the amount lost + one unit.
3rd game will be same as second.
Hope this explains it.
World Number One said:
WNO,
I knew it was only a matter of time before your comments got into this thread. Lol
I have never viewed your comments as bashing or in anyway negative. So let's discuss.
You are correct to point out the the 96% is off on the total series that are qualified to be played. That was not my purpose of posting that number. I am not trying to mislead anyone in any way. My purpose of that number is to state the possibility of eliminating losses to a season that I would not have played. I did state that by doing so that the amount that would qualify would be reduced as well.
I stated that it would take months to find out how many series would qualify in a season so I spent a very good amount of time on the losses for the past 2 seasons.
So as also stated I am using this year to compile the data as the season goes along to figure out how many would qualify.
So far 13 wins and 0 losses with 3 pending. I also posted that Boston and NY Yanks were very much a play but due to the juice involved I kicked them out.
Here are some things that I want you to think about.
Would you play a series on a team that has a terrible home record?
The answer should be YES
When you put a team in the right situation they have a better chance of winning. Because even bad teams win games too. (Plus this is where the even money or positive juice comes in)
When going through past years the easiest ones to eliminate are teams that are very poor. If they are not in the right situation they are a no play.
So what are the things that I have to tighten up thus not giving out the info yet?
Good teams in what looks like the right situations are the ones that are more tricky to spot and eliminate. This is going to be something that I am going to have to play with during the year.
Am I saying that every poor team I put up here is going to be a win?
NO
All I have is numbers from previous seasons to go by.
I am now working with a friend to tally up the numbers to get them as a guidline for the Road team being swept because my criteria can be reversed thus giving us options on series to pick and choose on Home or Away.
WNO or anybody your comments are always welcomed in this thread. I have no problem with people that have an opinion.
FullyEclipsed
why would say " it was only a matter of time before i came into this thread "
actually i know why...
lets get 1 thing straight.. i love discussing ideas like this .
i have been there and done that with a lot of what others talk about in here . been around here for over 5 years discussing it .
the tough part of what progression players put themselves thru is getting to game 3 . pulling the trigger isnt as easy as one makes it out to be.
you will be laying atleast an average of - 140 on any given game .
to do that for 3 games trying to make 1 unit back is rough.
140/100
336/240
806/576
getting to game 3 you have risked 1282 to make 100 .
i am very interested in hearing what your criteria is for throwing series out. i may be able to shine a light on what your talking about before you get too deep into it.
having said all that , i am also looking at a progression program with baseball dealing with something no one here has ever talked about.
waiting to see how it plays out for a few weeks .
again, good luck with whatever you do. be careful trying to double up.
actually i know why...
lets get 1 thing straight.. i love discussing ideas like this .
i have been there and done that with a lot of what others talk about in here . been around here for over 5 years discussing it .
the tough part of what progression players put themselves thru is getting to game 3 . pulling the trigger isnt as easy as one makes it out to be.
you will be laying atleast an average of - 140 on any given game .
to do that for 3 games trying to make 1 unit back is rough.
140/100
336/240
806/576
getting to game 3 you have risked 1282 to make 100 .
i am very interested in hearing what your criteria is for throwing series out. i may be able to shine a light on what your talking about before you get too deep into it.
having said all that , i am also looking at a progression program with baseball dealing with something no one here has ever talked about.
waiting to see how it plays out for a few weeks .
again, good luck with whatever you do. be careful trying to double up.
World Number One said:
There is nothing negative about my comment and I hope that you view it that way.
One risk that I have taken is posting this way of my playing too early in the season. I knew that it would draw some questions but not many due to Who the hell is FullyEclipsed? And the been there tried that by many posters.
I understand what is involved with the doubling up process. It is risky once game 3 rolls around. To be very honest I am kicking around the idea of calling it after game 2 but this is something that is just an idea and I have to have numbers to back this up.
WNO plays posted (Not including the pending ones) and plays before posting I have not reached a game 3. And I have played many of the system plays so far but not all. It was still a work in progress. When I get a chance I will figure how all of them faired % wise if I would have called it after game 2. Because lets face it the real loss doesn't come into play until game 3. The winning % that needs to be reached is much lower to make this a profit.
And for me this system is just the tip of the iceburg. I am working on numbers to be able to win 2 to 2+ units every series and still only risking the same amount as I would on 1 unit for a 3 game series. Which would drive the profits WAY UP.
I also wish you the best of luck.
Hey all,
Results for 4/12:
4/12* Arizona--W--Series is over
4/12 San Francisco--PPD
4/12* Florida--L--Move to game 3
Plays for 4/13:
4/13** Florida
San Francisco is now a NO play due to it is now considered a 2 game series that we have not started because of the Rain Outs with the 3rd game not scheduled.
It is just the way that it goes that I post today that I haven't reached a 3rd game yet and here one is on the table for tomorrow but it is part of this system.
Good Luck All!!!!!:thumbsup2:
Win or lose this game 3 I still have a lot of confidence in this system and there has to be bumps in the road at some point in order to learn from them.
So More to come on 4/14
Results for 4/12:
4/12* Arizona--W--Series is over
4/12 San Francisco--PPD
4/12* Florida--L--Move to game 3
Plays for 4/13:
4/13** Florida
San Francisco is now a NO play due to it is now considered a 2 game series that we have not started because of the Rain Outs with the 3rd game not scheduled.
It is just the way that it goes that I post today that I haven't reached a 3rd game yet and here one is on the table for tomorrow but it is part of this system.
Good Luck All!!!!!:thumbsup2:
Win or lose this game 3 I still have a lot of confidence in this system and there has to be bumps in the road at some point in order to learn from them.
So More to come on 4/14
Hey all,
Results for 4/13:
4/13** Florida--Win--Series is over
I realized that I should keep a updated record as series complete and post the juice beside the picks for the day.
So posted record:
5 series
5 Wins
0 Losses
+5 Units
I will post record at the top from here on out.
Plays for 4/14:
4/14 Florida -159
4/14 Tampa Bay -144
4/14 Oakland -145
4/14 St. Louis -1 Run -140 (This is a series that I would kick out ONLY due to the price So I will be playing this one -1 Run) If the first game of the series is a push the series is cancelled.
Good Luck All!!!!!!!!:thumbsup2:
Results for 4/13:
4/13** Florida--Win--Series is over
I realized that I should keep a updated record as series complete and post the juice beside the picks for the day.
So posted record:
5 series
5 Wins
0 Losses
+5 Units
I will post record at the top from here on out.
Plays for 4/14:
4/14 Florida -159
4/14 Tampa Bay -144
4/14 Oakland -145
4/14 St. Louis -1 Run -140 (This is a series that I would kick out ONLY due to the price So I will be playing this one -1 Run) If the first game of the series is a push the series is cancelled.
Good Luck All!!!!!!!!:thumbsup2:
FullyEclipsed said:
Fully, why not play the Cardinal game at -1- -09 instead of -1?
You'd either win or lose and a loss would end the series the same way a tie would....Also is only a one unit loss.....PLUS.....it's -09 instead of the bigger juice? Right now at Pinny that's 35 cents youd save and that's ALMOST a 1/2 unit! Just doesn't seem worth it to me.
Thoughts?
Good luck to you and all!!!!:money:
You'd either win or lose and a loss would end the series the same way a tie would....Also is only a one unit loss.....PLUS.....it's -09 instead of the bigger juice? Right now at Pinny that's 35 cents youd save and that's ALMOST a 1/2 unit! Just doesn't seem worth it to me.
Thoughts?
Good luck to you and all!!!!:money:
8ate said:
Thanks 8ate.
You are right it is at 100% right now but this is still a new system to me as well so I am not asking anyone to follow me as WNO is posting his comments. This system so far this year is actually 15-0 and there was 2 that I kicked out due to the price so 17-0.
Is this the way that I can expect things to go all year? No, but if I came on here in 2 months and said to everyone follow me, follow me my system is such and such. Would anybody in there right mind believe me if it wasn't documented? I think not.
I am still ironing things out as I go as I have been expressing in previous posts. It is a long season and it is very early into it.
Just a thought for some How many would have thought that Detroit would have been swept at home after starting off so HOT on the road? I sure wouldn't have thought so but the series did not qualify and it was not played. Lucky? Maybe. It is early.
So have patience out there. Gambling is a daily grind and not something that should be viewed as a get rich scheme.
FullyEclipsed
Ricardo,Ricardo Da Vinci said:
That is a very good point that you have made. There is a lot more value in playing the -1.5 in series that I see like in this case. This is one that tips over the standards in place as the case when I posted NY Yanks and Boston were in that category.
My original goal was not to play the runlines at all so this was something new to add and I am going to be playing with.
Thank you for your comments!
FullyEclipsed
