I have been kicking around so many ideas in my head through spring training on how I am going to approach baseball season for how I wanted to wager. I don't follow baseball all that much so my first thought was to ride the heck out of one of the great cappers here on the RX but when it really comes down to it for me I want to be the one that ultimately makes my own picks. So long story short I have been working at the computer crunching numbers on past seasons and I feel like I have spot a system play that I will be posting here on the RX. This is something that I have picked up by reading Tony1's NBA system and Markie Mark's Hockey system. So I will explain what I am doing it is very simple and hopefully things will go smoothly.
I started to look at the past 4 seasons of home teams that have been swept in a 3 or more game series. I went through each team each year and broke it down between first half and second half. Gathering how many 3 or more games played vs. one team they had. Then finding out how many of those series that they were actually swept. After doing that for the 30 teams, 4 seasons I got a percentage of series played--won atleast one game by the home team vs. Home team swept.
2002-2005
NL
1550 Home Series of 3 Games or more
1406 where the home team won at least 1 game
144 times home team was swept
90.7%
2002-2005
AL
1362 Home Series of 3 games or more
1227 where the home team won at least 1 game
135 times home team was swept.
90%
So you can probably see what I am getting at. Bet on the home team ML and double the amount plus juice for game 2 if game one loses and the same for game 3.
Won't work right because even 90% sucess rate won't cover a loss on some of these series because of the juice.
I agree!
So my next step was to find some criteria to go by that would eliminate some of these losses. Yes it will also limit the amount of series that can be played but the goal was to figure out how to reduce the losses and in the long run make this profitable.
So I set up my criteria that a series must have before it becomes a series to play. With this in place I started once again going through past results and started eliminating series that lost that would not have qaulified.(It would take months to figure out how many would qualify in a season so I just looked at the losses)
2005-Before my criteria
AL
349 Home Series
36 Loss
89.6%
2005-After My criteria
AL
349 Home Series
11 Loss
96.8%
2005-Before my criteria
NL
386 Home Series
30 Loss
92.2%
2005-After my criteria
NL
386 Home Series
12 Loss
For time savings
2004 AL went from 25 losses to 13
2004 NL went from 46 losses to 15
I am going to do the other 2 seasons for reference but I wanted to get this up today. So 2004 and 2005 are the only 2 that I have gone through to see what games would not have qualified....
So how many will qualify is the next step.
So far this early in the season there has been 10 series that would qualify.
10 Wins and 0 losses
There has been 2 teams swept at home so far Philly and San Diego. Niether one would have qualified!
One thing that I am going to try to stay away from is 4 game series. I don't like the thought of putting 4x the original wager on the 4th game if needed.
So I am sure that people might be thinking sure keep taking the heavy home favorites and you can't lose.
Not the point of this at all. I will play the heavy home favorite if it is falls into play but the goal of mine is to play the ones that are closer to even money that way the gain isn't as much of a risk. But for the most part I won't look at the juice until after I look at the series.
So one thing that I might be asked is what is the criteria to qualify a series.
Right now I am working on this to improve even more so I will not be giving that Info out until I have it locked in stone.
So to everybody just peek in after so many days and see if this is something that you are interested in after this gets rolling.
So the way I am playing these is the same as most the cappers if it is a -Juice I play to win a unit if it is +Juice I risk a unit.
So for 4/10 home teams I am playing
4/10 Atlanta
4/10 St. Louis
4/10 LA Angels
More to come on 4/11
Good Luck All!!!!:thumbsup2:
I started to look at the past 4 seasons of home teams that have been swept in a 3 or more game series. I went through each team each year and broke it down between first half and second half. Gathering how many 3 or more games played vs. one team they had. Then finding out how many of those series that they were actually swept. After doing that for the 30 teams, 4 seasons I got a percentage of series played--won atleast one game by the home team vs. Home team swept.
2002-2005
NL
1550 Home Series of 3 Games or more
1406 where the home team won at least 1 game
144 times home team was swept
90.7%
2002-2005
AL
1362 Home Series of 3 games or more
1227 where the home team won at least 1 game
135 times home team was swept.
90%
So you can probably see what I am getting at. Bet on the home team ML and double the amount plus juice for game 2 if game one loses and the same for game 3.
Won't work right because even 90% sucess rate won't cover a loss on some of these series because of the juice.
I agree!
So my next step was to find some criteria to go by that would eliminate some of these losses. Yes it will also limit the amount of series that can be played but the goal was to figure out how to reduce the losses and in the long run make this profitable.
So I set up my criteria that a series must have before it becomes a series to play. With this in place I started once again going through past results and started eliminating series that lost that would not have qaulified.(It would take months to figure out how many would qualify in a season so I just looked at the losses)
2005-Before my criteria
AL
349 Home Series
36 Loss
89.6%
2005-After My criteria
AL
349 Home Series
11 Loss
96.8%
2005-Before my criteria
NL
386 Home Series
30 Loss
92.2%
2005-After my criteria
NL
386 Home Series
12 Loss
For time savings
2004 AL went from 25 losses to 13
2004 NL went from 46 losses to 15
I am going to do the other 2 seasons for reference but I wanted to get this up today. So 2004 and 2005 are the only 2 that I have gone through to see what games would not have qualified....
So how many will qualify is the next step.
So far this early in the season there has been 10 series that would qualify.
10 Wins and 0 losses
There has been 2 teams swept at home so far Philly and San Diego. Niether one would have qualified!
One thing that I am going to try to stay away from is 4 game series. I don't like the thought of putting 4x the original wager on the 4th game if needed.
So I am sure that people might be thinking sure keep taking the heavy home favorites and you can't lose.
Not the point of this at all. I will play the heavy home favorite if it is falls into play but the goal of mine is to play the ones that are closer to even money that way the gain isn't as much of a risk. But for the most part I won't look at the juice until after I look at the series.
So one thing that I might be asked is what is the criteria to qualify a series.
Right now I am working on this to improve even more so I will not be giving that Info out until I have it locked in stone.
So to everybody just peek in after so many days and see if this is something that you are interested in after this gets rolling.
So the way I am playing these is the same as most the cappers if it is a -Juice I play to win a unit if it is +Juice I risk a unit.
So for 4/10 home teams I am playing
4/10 Atlanta
4/10 St. Louis
4/10 LA Angels
More to come on 4/11
Good Luck All!!!!:thumbsup2:
