Ncaa season long trends / angles

[Scott68]

Great stuff as always Kaboom ... really enjoy sorting through all of your info and sharing it with like-minded friends.

You do good work ... even if it's just food for thought ... always leads to me trying to find different angles based on the creativity that you use for your analysis.

Keep it coming and good luck this season!!

 

[Enfuego]

West Virginia is one of those plays out there novices will look at and say "Hey, this Big 12 school is only giving 6 at home? Wow, I'm on them."

But James Madison is a good team and WVU is replacing a lot of productivity. The Dukes may win straight up.

 

[thekeyman]

Tennessee has lost their top DL for the season

Florida loses very good DB for the season

 

[Kaboom]

Great stuff as always Kaboom ... really enjoy sorting through all of your info and sharing it with like-minded friends.

You do good work ... even if it's just food for thought ... always leads to me trying to find different angles based on the creativity that you use for your analysis.

Keep it coming and good luck this season!!

Thx my brotha !! ... all about increasing your capping skills .

Been gambling well over 40 years and the one constant in my game ....think outside the box .

Never tail anyone , if possible .... rely on your own capping , that way when you lose ....you look to improve and look for new edges ....

BOL !

 

[Kaboom]

West Virginia is one of those plays out there novices will look at and say "Hey, this Big 12 school is only giving 6 at home? Wow, I'm on them."

But James Madison is a good team and WVU is replacing a lot of productivity. The Dukes may win straight up.

The Dukes very well can go into WV and get their ass beat just on the players each school gets to play for them ...

[FONT=&quot]JMU returns 19 starters from last year's squad ... senior qb returning ...

Single Favorite DIV 1 schools vs Div 2 schools ...opening game only ...last 5 years ... ATS ... 5-9 ....

JM last at NC ST last year by 11 ... NC ST had a senior qb ( Finley ) ...this year WV has a transfer .... Austin Kendall ... his breakdown

If Kendall beats me ... oh well ... it happens ....but I like the Dukes here ....

BOL !!

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• Enrolled at West Virginia in January after transferring from Oklahoma

[h=2]2018 (r-So.) - Oklahoma[/h]

• Played in six games; added depth at quarterback
• Completed 3-of-4 passes for 28 yards and rushed three times for 17 yards against Kansas State (10/27)
• Completed lone attempt for six yards against Texas (10/6)
• Made first career start versus Baylor (9/29) and played one series
• Played majority of second half vs. Florida Atlantic (9/1) and was 8-of-10 passing for 88 yards and a touchdown

[h=2]2017 (So.) - Oklahoma[/h]

• Redshirted
• Named one of squad’s offensive scout team players of the year

[h=2]2016 (Fr.) - Oklahoma[/h]

• Played in two games in a backup role
• Finished with 143 passing yards and 16 completions, most ever in a season by a true freshman under head coach Bob Stoops, while his two passing touchdowns tied Paul Thompson (2002) for most by a freshman
• Made debut by playing entire second half vs. Louisiana-Monroe (9/10) and finished with 108 yards and two touchdowns on 12-of-15 passing
• Entered Kansas game (10/29) in third quarter and finished 4-of-7 for 35 yards and added 26 yards rushing on three carries
• Enrolled at Oklahoma in January and participated in spring practice

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[Kaboom]

Tennessee has lost their top DL for the season

Florida loses very good DB for the season

Thanks Key !!!

 

[Kaboom]

This angle in 2018 ...

566 ATS Games .. excluding push records ....

Went ... 305 Lost Ats / 261 Win Ats .... Losing Percentage of 54% ( which is solid )

Using the Angle 29 Teams had Losing ATS Records ... while just 15 had Winning Ats Records


A $10 Bettor ...in which I'm playing ... would make

$162.45

The Angle in my opinion, is not worth wagering because you have to invest $5,660.00 to Win $162.45

Who has that money laying around ???

But If I tweak my angle somehow ...look a bit deeper into those teams that had the Winning Records Ats wise maybe I can cut my losses ?

That is my goal ...

I will update this trend with more info later ....


Any genuine interest in the angle/trend .... send me a message ...Private Message

Kaboom / Larry

 

[rolltide]

All Streaks eventually lose ... that being said ....

I have nothing against Texas Longhorn fans but as the Second Favorite at + 370 to Win the Conference Championship ....they are a BAD BET !!

Reason

There are now 10 different Conferences that have Championship Games ...

I went back from 2012 ( furthest I can go back ) to Present Day ... 2018 ( Last Championship Games )

In regards to Return Starters ....

No Conference Champion .... 53 in Total since 2012 .... has ever Won their Conference Championship

With 8 Return Starters ...... TEXAS HAS 8 RETURN STARTERS THIS YEAR ! .... this trend can end here this year if Texas does indeed win their

Conference Championship .....but for my dough ....I'm taking a pass on Texas


The Whole Breakdown in Regards to Return Starters and their Percentage Chance of Winning their Conference Championship

Teams that had 12 Return Starters won their Conference Championship the most with 11/53 or 21% of the time

Teams that had 14 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 10/53 or 19% of the time

Teams that had 11 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 7/53 or 13% of the time

Teams that had 13 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 6/53 or 11% of the time

Teams that had 15 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 6/53 or 11% of the time

Teams that had 16 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 6/53 or 11% of the time

Teams that had 10 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 3/53 or 6% of the time

Teams that had 9 Return Starters won their Conference Championship 2/53 or 4% of the time

This one blow my mind .... Teams with 17 Return Starters have Won their Conference Championship JUST 2/53 OR 4% of the time


Feedback is appreciated .....keeps me posting these different angles ...

I will have Breakdowns of Each Conference in regards to Return Starters .... with their percentages of winning their Conf Championship...later today ....

the stats master, Bill Connelly, did a great breakdown to find correlation of returning starters by unit

Offensively the most important correlation is returning receiving yards and the least important, surprisingly, is number of total starts returning on the offensive line

Defensively the best correlation is with defensive backs total tackles returning followed by DB's passes defensed returning. The lowest correlation has to do with returning LB stats. So look for teams with a lot of defensive backs returning and don't worry so much about linebackers. After Tennessee, the best returning production in Power 5 is Minnesota followed by Va Tech, Indiana, Florida State, and LSU

using those weightings Western Michigan sits at the top of returning production leaders followed by Tennessee, Texas State, Southern Miss, and Rice. At the bottom was UAB (sigh), Fresno St, UMASS, Buffalo, and Navy. Among power-5 teams Texas is dead last in returning important production followed by GaTech, Wash, Ole Miss & Kentucky

 

[Kaboom]

the stats master, Bill Connelly, did a great breakdown to find correlation of returning starters by unit

Offensively the most important correlation is returning receiving yards and the least important, surprisingly, is number of total starts returning on the offensive line

Defensively the best correlation is with defensive backs total tackles returning followed by DB's passes defensed returning. The lowest correlation has to do with returning LB stats. So look for teams with a lot of defensive backs returning and don't worry so much about linebackers. After Tennessee, the best returning production in Power 5 is Minnesota followed by Va Tech, Indiana, Florida State, and LSU

using those weightings Western Michigan sits at the top of returning production leaders followed by Tennessee, Texas State, Southern Miss, and Rice. At the bottom was UAB (sigh), Fresno St, UMASS, Buffalo, and Navy. Among power-5 teams Texas is dead last in returning important production followed by GaTech, Wash, Ole Miss & Kentucky

Amazing find bro ... thx for sharing ... Now we know ...at least on paper ...to lean towards or against if on fence ... Well done ..

 

[Kaboom]

the stats master, Bill Connelly, did a great breakdown to find correlation of returning starters by unit

Offensively the most important correlation is returning receiving yards and the least important, surprisingly, is number of total starts returning on the offensive line

Defensively the best correlation is with defensive backs total tackles returning followed by DB's passes defensed returning. The lowest correlation has to do with returning LB stats. So look for teams with a lot of defensive backs returning and don't worry so much about linebackers. After Tennessee, the best returning production in Power 5 is Minnesota followed by Va Tech, Indiana, Florida State, and LSU

using those weightings Western Michigan sits at the top of returning production leaders followed by Tennessee, Texas State, Southern Miss, and Rice. At the bottom was UAB (sigh), Fresno St, UMASS, Buffalo, and Navy. Among power-5 teams Texas is dead last in returning important production followed by GaTech, Wash, Ole Miss & Kentucky

Went back to 2018 Bill Connelly List and did TOP 25 Teams on his List ...to see how they did Ats wise ...

$10 a Wager .... 166 Ats Wins - 110 Juice + = $1508.94
........................147 Ats Lost ................... = $1470.00

Profit of only ... $38.94 .... Not great ... therefore for me ....not the angle I'm looking for ...but I appreciate the heads up regardless .

On to the next possible find .... LOL !

 

[Kaboom]

Today's Angle ... Last 5 Years

6 FBS Schools had an Opening Game Line of - 50 or more vs FCS Schools

ATS Record .... 2 Wins - 5 Lost

So far this Year ... the FCS Schools with a - 50 or More Point Spread vs FCS Schools ...

TCU ... at 5 Dimes Opened at I want to say -49.5 or so ... now current line TCU - 52.5 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Year Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs 2 teams that were much better than them ...

Lost to FCS School 6 - 90 ... OUCH ...vs South Dakota State

Lost to FBS School Florida International 9 - 55 ..... The Line in that game was FIU - 57 !!!!!! / COVERED BY ARK-PINE BLUFF ....

I'm sure the public seeing value with TCU opening up as a Smaller Favorite than FIU last year - 49.5 / Now - 52.5 ...

I expect this line may rise a bit more ....be patient ....

Your Call ....but my lean will be .... Arkansas-Pine Bluff plus the Points

 

[Kaboom]

If any interest in a 58% ATS Win Percentage Last Year on a Trend that covered 176 Games

plus

A Trend that hit at 55% ATS Win Percentage Last Year that Covered 124 Games


Send me a Private Message



Here is a small one I will share with you that is way outside the box


Opening Week Only Over Last 2 Years

When a FBS School ( Teams like Penn St ...Okla ... etc ) Line Moves up 3 or 3.5 Points Exactly from the Opening Line AGAINST FCS Schools ( Like James Madison ... Eastern Washington ... etc .. )

FBS Schools went 1-9 ATS vs the Spread in those games ....


also .... Just 2 Games in the Last 2 Years where Line Moved up 8.5 Points and 12 Points .... Both Times Favorite Covered


BOL !!!

 

[METFAN]

thanks for all this information Larry. Remember when looking at returning starters. rice could return their whole team from the last 4 yrs and still not win the division. I like to look at returning QB and maybe just as important returning offensive linemen.

Good Luck this yr

 

[Kaboom]

thanks for all this information Larry. Remember when looking at returning starters. rice could return their whole team from the last 4 yrs and still not win the division. I like to look at returning QB and maybe just as important returning offensive linemen.

Good Luck this yr

Thanks Man ...BOL TY ...

Funny the Returning No QB does matter with certain spreads ...interesting

 

[thekeyman]

If any interest in a 58% ATS Win Percentage Last Year on a Trend that covered 176 Games

plus

A Trend that hit at 55% ATS Win Percentage Last Year that Covered 124 Games


Send me a Private Message



Here is a small one I will share with you that is way outside the box


Opening Week Only Over Last 2 Years

When a FBS School ( Teams like Penn St ...Okla ... etc ) Line Moves up 3 or 3.5 Points Exactly from the Opening Line AGAINST FCS Schools ( Like James Madison ... Eastern Washington ... etc .. )

FBS Schools went 1-9 ATS vs the Spread in those games ....


also .... Just 2 Games in the Last 2 Years where Line Moved up 8.5 Points and 12 Points .... Both Times Favorite Covered


BOL !!!

Not bad at all,...i like it

 

[Kaboom]

Not bad at all,...i like it

Glad u like the angle ...just something to consider if on the fence of a game ... BOL TY

 

[Kaboom]

If any interest in a 58% ATS Win Percentage Last Year on a Trend that covered 176 Games

plus

A Trend that hit at 55% ATS Win Percentage Last Year that Covered 124 Games


Send me a Private Message



Here is a small one I will share with you that is way outside the box


Opening Week Only Over Last 2 Years

When a FBS School ( Teams like Penn St ...Okla ... etc ) Line Moves up 3 or 3.5 Points Exactly from the Opening Line AGAINST FCS Schools ( Like James Madison ... Eastern Washington ... etc .. )

FBS Schools went 1-9 ATS vs the Spread in those games ....


also .... Just 2 Games in the Last 2 Years where Line Moved up 8.5 Points and 12 Points .... Both Times Favorite Covered


BOL !!!

Adding on ... Nice Nugget ... does it continue TY ????


Last 5 Years


When FBS School is favored by less than - 9.5 points vs an FCS School .... ATS Record is 3-10!!!!!! .....all about digging gents

When the FCS School Covered

2015 San Jose St .. Line opened - 2 moved to - 6 .... Final 43-13

2017 Texas Tech - 7 ......line stayed same ....Final 56-10

2018 Ga St - 3 .... line stayed same .....Final 24-20


The FBS ATS Losers

2014 ..Iowa St -3.5 to - 6 .... Lost Su 14-34

2014 ... Wyo - 4.5 to 6.5....Won 17-12 ....no cover

2014 ... Ga St - 4 .... line stayed same ....Won 38-37 ....no cover

2015 ... Kansas - 3.5 ...line stayed same ....Lost SU 38-41

2016....Iowa St - 9 to - 9.5 ....Lost SU 20-25

2016 ...FAU -7 to - 9.5 ....Won 38-30 .....no cover

2018 ...Kansas - 6.5 to -9.5 ....Lost SU in OT 23-26

2018 ...EC - 7.5 ...line stayed same ....LOST SU 23-28

2018...SJ ST - 3 ...line stayed same ....Lost SU 38-44

2018 ...Utep - 6.5 to - 7 ....Lost SU 10-30

 

[Kaboom]

Adding on ... Nice Nugget ... does it continue TY ????


Last 5 Years


When FBS School is favored by less than - 9.5 points vs an FCS School .... ATS Record is 3-10!!!!!! .....all about digging gents

When the FCS School Covered

2015 San Jose St .. Line opened - 2 moved to - 6 .... Final 43-13

2017 Texas Tech - 7 ......line stayed same ....Final 56-10

2018 Ga St - 3 .... line stayed same .....Final 24-20


The FBS ATS Losers

2014 ..Iowa St -3.5 to - 6 .... Lost Su 14-34

2014 ... Wyo - 4.5 to 6.5....Won 17-12 ....no cover

2014 ... Ga St - 4 .... line stayed same ....Won 38-37 ....no cover

2015 ... Kansas - 3.5 ...line stayed same ....Lost SU 38-41

2016....Iowa St - 9 to - 9.5 ....Lost SU 20-25

2016 ...FAU -7 to - 9.5 ....Won 38-30 .....no cover

2018 ...Kansas - 6.5 to -9.5 ....Lost SU in OT 23-26

2018 ...EC - 7.5 ...line stayed same ....LOST SU 23-28

2018...SJ ST - 3 ...line stayed same ....Lost SU 38-44

2018 ...Utep - 6.5 to - 7 ....Lost SU 10-30

So far 2019 .... we have these FBS Schools - 9.5 or Less vs FCS Schools .... wait until kickoff to wager sometimes you get a few more points ....if playing the DOG ....like we should .... last 5 years 3-10 ATS

CM

WK

Kansas

WV

UTSA

N ILL

SD ST

 

[Kaboom]

In a helping out type of mood .... do they show a profit this year ????

Ats …The Good and Bad

Air Force

10 Wins - 3 Lost - 1 Push ATS Last 4 Yrs as a Road Dog

Arkansas St

2 Wins - 7 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs vs Non Conference

Auburn

3 Wins - 8 Lost - 1 Push ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Fav

Byu

9 Wins - 2 Lost as a Road Dog

Colorado St

1 Win - 7 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Fav

Illinois

4 Wins - 10 Lost ATS as a Home Dog

Indiana

5 Wins - 1 Lost ATS as a Home Fav

Iowa St

12 Wins - 6 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs vs Conference

Kentucky

Brutal 0 Wins - 9 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Fav

Lsu

Perfect 4 Wins - 0 Lost ATS as an Away Dog

Marshall

5 Wins - 1 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Road Dog

Miami O

1 Win - 7 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs vs Non Conference

Memphis

12 Wins - 5 Lost - 1 Push ATS Last 2 Yrs in Conference Play

Michigan

2 Wins - 6 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs vs Non Conf

Minnesota

6 Wins - 1 Lost ATS vs Non Conf

New Mexico

Brutal 0 Wins - 6 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Fav

Old Dominion

5 Wins - 11 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs vs Conference

San Diego St

2 Wins - 10 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Fav

South Carolina

Perfect 6 Wins - 0 Lost Ats Last 2 Yrs as an Away Dog

Texas Christian

3 Wins - 12 Lost - 1 Push Last 3 Yrs as a Home Fav

Usc

5 Wins - 11 Lost Ats Last 2 Yrs after a SU Win

Utah

8 Wins - 2 Lost Ats as a Home Fav

Vandy

1 Win - 5 Lost ATS Last 2 Yrs as a Home Dog

Washington

1 Win - 5 Lost ATS Last 3 Years off SU Loss

 

[Kaboom]

Texas ...Coach Tom Herman ... just 1-4 Ats as a DD Favorite at Texas

• Yellow Jackets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Clemson.

[FONT=&quot]Aggies are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games


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