Ncaa season long trends / angles

[Kaboom]

Last Year .... 20 or More Point Favorites

Went 69 -77 ATS ....only 47% ATS Winners

Not a big enough edge for an Auto Play against ...because if you were wagering $10 a game against the 20 Point favorites ... ONLINE ..you would get back $9.09 x the 77 Winners = $699.93 Won .... the 69 Losers cost you $690 .... Profit of a whole $9.93 .... Not worth the Auto Fade

But the chart below can help with certain conferences or teams that have done good or bad as a 20 Point or More Favorite .

For Instance ... Look at the BIG 10 Rec of their Teams that were 20 Point or More Favorites .... 8-17 ATS ??? Now does that continue this year ???



20 Point Favorites by Conference ... all ATS Records

SEC ...22-15...Notables ....Bama 7-4 Ats ... Lsu 0-3

MW ...10-4....Notables ... Boise St 3-0 and 1-0 in 2017 .....Utah St ....4-1 .... Lost some top players but still have Qb Love ... SD St 0-2

AAC...6-5 .....Notables ....UCF 3-1 ....S Fla 0-2



ACC ... 9-9 ....Notables ....Clemson 4-4 .... Syracuse 2-0

SBC ... 2-2

Big 10 ... 8-17 .....A PLAY AGAINST THIS YEAR ? ...Notables ....19 Return Starters Msu went 0-3 ....Wisconsin 1-4 ... Michigan ... 1-3 .... NW 0-2

C-USA ... 1-7 ....Notables ....N Texas 0-3 .... LT 0-2

Pac-12 ....3-6 .... Notables ... Washington 0-2

Independent 1-3 ... Notable ....ND 0-3

Big 12 ....6-7 ....Notables ....Okla 3-4

MAC .... 1-2



Feedback appreciated


May go back to see 2017 results / Undecided ...fyi

 

[Kaboom]

Last Year .... 20 or More Point Favorites

Went 69 -77 ATS ....only 47% ATS Winners

Not a big enough edge for an Auto Play against ...because if you were wagering $10 a game against the 20 Point favorites ... ONLINE ..you would get back $9.09 x the 77 Winners = $699.93 Won .... the 69 Losers cost you $690 .... Profit of a whole $9.93 .... Not worth the Auto Fade

But the chart below can help with certain conferences or teams that have done good or bad as a 20 Point or More Favorite .

For Instance ... Look at the BIG 10 Rec of their Teams that were 20 Point or More Favorites .... 8-17 ATS ??? Now does that continue this year ???



20 Point Favorites by Conference ... all ATS Records

SEC ...22-15...Notables ....Bama 7-4 Ats ... Lsu 0-3

MW ...10-4....Notables ... Boise St 3-0 and 1-0 in 2017 .....Utah St ....4-1 .... Lost some top players but still have Qb Love ... SD St 0-2

AAC...6-5 .....Notables ....UCF 3-1 ....S Fla 0-2



ACC ... 9-9 ....Notables ....Clemson 4-4 .... Syracuse 2-0

SBC ... 2-2

Big 10 ... 8-17 .....A PLAY AGAINST THIS YEAR ? ...Notables ....19 Return Starters Msu went 0-3 ....Wisconsin 1-4 ... Michigan ... 1-3 .... NW 0-2

C-USA ... 1-7 ....Notables ....N Texas 0-3 .... LT 0-2

Pac-12 ....3-6 .... Notables ... Washington 0-2

Independent 1-3 ... Notable ....ND 0-3

Big 12 ....6-7 ....Notables ....Okla 3-4

MAC .... 1-2



Feedback appreciated


May go back to see 2017 results / Undecided ...fyi

2017 Numbers ... 20 Point or More Favorites

64 -67 ATS

Just Posting Possible Value on Teams to Play on or Against over the last 2 Years 2017 and 2018 when they are 20 Point or More Favorites ...

SEC

Lsu 0-4 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

Tenn 0-3 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

Big 10 ... Only Consistent Losing Conference in College Football when favored by 20 or More Points

2017 ... 12-13 ATS
2018 ......8-17 ATS

Last 2 Years

Michigan 1-6 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

Wisconsin 3-6 ATS ...when favored by 20 or More Points

ACC

Louisville 0-4 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

Big 12

TCU 3-0 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

OK ST 3-0 ATS ...when favored by 20 or More Points

Pac 12

USC 0-3 ATS ...when favored by 20 or More Points

AAC

S Fla 2-5 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

MW

Boise St 4-0 ATS ....when favored by 20 or More Points

 

[Kaboom]

Next Up ... sometime this weekend

New Coaches in College Football .... First Year ATS records !!!

Hope some of u guys find an interest in it ??

 

[Kaboom]

Today's Edge

Went back last 2 Years ...so far ....

New Coaches with Team and their Return Starters .............ATS Record

The advantages I found ...both positive and negative

If you were to wager ....$10 a game over the last 2 Years Excluding Pushes ....

ATS Rec with New Coaches went 288 - 264 .... Even though that number is 24 games over .500 ...you still would have lost money ...

288 Wins at $9.09 won per $10 online per game = winnings of $2617.92

264 Lost at $10 per game = $2640.00

A Loss of $22.08

Just wanted to point that out to you guys .... those with bookies would show a profit .....


I noticed better ATS Records for New Coaches that had 16 Return Starters ... ATS Rec 41 Wins - 23 Lost = Win ATS PCT 64%

That's a real solid edge guys over 2 Years

I feel the edge is even more solid when the Team Returns their Starting QB .....in which all these teams below with New Coaches do include .

Here are the Teams in 2019 with New Coaches and Return 16 Starters / All with their Return Starting QB ...

ATS Win Percentage 64%

Appl St

Liberty

Louisville

Western Kentucky

Please give us some feedback guys on the New Coaches of these teams in how you feel about their chances TY ???



I also have the Negative ..... I have ZERO Teams in the Last 2 Years

that had a New Coach with NO RETURN QB and ONLY 8 RETURN STARTERS

2019 ... the team that I would never play to Win Ats game .... U Mass .... we will see how they do vs a brutal Rutgers team on 8/30 ... I already played Rutgers here .....fyi


I also a few other Bet Against ATS Teams this year with New Coaches .... pretty solid stat


Teams that have a New Coach and 9 Return Starters ... went 14 - 21 ATS ..which is a 60% Lose Ats Pct ...if they don't return their Starting QB I believe it only solidifies the play against ....

Here are the 2019 Teams with new Coaches and 9 Return Starters ...some with No Return Starting QB too ...

Remember 60% ATS Lose Percentage

GT ......NO RETURN STATING QB

Maryland .....NO RETURN STATING QB

Utah St ..... has a very solid QB ( Love ) that returns ...so careful

WV ......NO RETURN STATING QB


Again ... anyone with feedback on these New Coaches would be appreciated ....


Really not getting much feedback on some of the angles I have shared here , maybe it's early or maybe it's because people just don't trust the angles ?

Just trying to provide with an edge here on RX Forum , in which I have done at smaller forums in the past ...



I will continue to break down some different angles to use for our wagering in CFB this year and post them up here ...


All I ask is some feedback ...keeps me posting , if I notice the interest .


BOL TY !!!

 

[Enfuego]

Today's Edge

Went back last 2 Years ...so far ....

New Coaches with Team and their Return Starters .............ATS Record

The advantages I found ...both positive and negative

If you were to wager ....$10 a game over the last 2 Years Excluding Pushes ....

ATS Rec with New Coaches went 288 - 264 .... Even though that number is 24 games over .500 ...you still would have lost money ...

288 Wins at $9.09 won per $10 online per game = winnings of $2617.92

264 Lost at $10 per game = $2640.00

A Loss of $22.08

Just wanted to point that out to you guys .... those with bookies would show a profit .....


I noticed better ATS Records for New Coaches that had 16 Return Starters ... ATS Rec 41 Wins - 23 Lost = Win ATS PCT 64%

That's a real solid edge guys over 2 Years

I feel the edge is even more solid when the Team Returns their Starting QB .....in which all these teams below with New Coaches do include .

Here are the Teams in 2019 with New Coaches and Return 16 Starters / All with their Return Starting QB ...

ATS Win Percentage 64%

Appl St

Liberty

Louisville

Western Kentucky

Please give us some feedback guys on the New Coaches of these teams in how you feel about their chances TY ???



I also have the Negative ..... I have ZERO Teams in the Last 2 Years

that had a New Coach with NO RETURN QB and ONLY 8 RETURN STARTERS

2019 ... the team that I would never play to Win Ats game .... U Mass .... we will see how they do vs a brutal Rutgers team on 8/30 ... I already played Rutgers here .....fyi


I also a few other Bet Against ATS Teams this year with New Coaches .... pretty solid stat


Teams that have a New Coach and 9 Return Starters ... went 14 - 21 ATS ..which is a 60% Lose Ats Pct ...if they don't return their Starting QB I believe it only solidifies the play against ....

Here are the 2019 Teams with new Coaches and 9 Return Starters ...some with No Return Starting QB too ...

Remember 60% ATS Lose Percentage

GT ......NO RETURN STATING QB

Maryland .....NO RETURN STATING QB

Utah St ..... has a very solid QB ( Love ) that returns ...so careful

WV ......NO RETURN STATING QB


Again ... anyone with feedback on these New Coaches would be appreciated ....


Really not getting much feedback on some of the angles I have shared here , maybe it's early or maybe it's because people just don't trust the angles ?

Just trying to provide with an edge here on RX Forum , in which I have done at smaller forums in the past ...



I will continue to break down some different angles to use for our wagering in CFB this year and post them up here ...


All I ask is some feedback ...keeps me posting , if I notice the interest .


BOL TY !!!

Rutgers huh?

 

[Kaboom]

Rutgers huh?

Yes sir ... $10 Rutgers - 14

I wager small compared to most here bro .... I enjoy the action and have plenty ...but my units

$5 a Unit ....

Once in a while I will hit a nice 7 teamer for $5 ..which helps the payroll .... but for the most part

$10 a Game is what I can afford ... with an occasional $25 to $50 Play ...thrown in

Been gambling over 40 years ...just a hobby now ...

BOL TY !!!

 

[Kaboom]

Did you know ... last 2 years

Penn St has outscored Maryland 104 - 6 .... I played Penn St - 13.5 at Maryland on 9/27 ... 2 Units / $10

also

Alabama ...after Ole Miss seemed to play them tough for a few years ...

Last 2 Years Bama has Outscored Ole Miss .... 128 - 10 ....

Ole Miss does have 10 Return Starters on Defense ...will that help TY ??? ...but they only have 3 Return Starters on Offense vs that Bama Defense ....

I see a 50-0 Score ....lay it ...

On 9/28 ... Alabama at Home - 34 .... 2 Units / $10 ... also Bama was 7-4 ATS last year spreads over 20 points

 

[VegasKnows]

Rutgers (now -14.5) is one of the better bets in week #1. Line starting to move up now.

Wisc. last year had injuries on D and went 1-4 ATS when favored by 20+, 3-8-1 for the season ATS.

Michigan St had injuries throughout the year on offense and went 3-9 ATS for the season.

That's 6-17 against the spread with one push. (Used Phil Steele's spread numbers)

A trend on teams with multiple starters lost, say, by game 4 or 5, would be interesting. Teams with limited depth get hurt the most.

Both MSU and Wisc. started the seasons by not covering their opening games. (Did anyone notice Steele's mag has the MSU/Utah St score wrong!!)
Then things got worse as injuries piled up for both teams. Seems like the lines do not adjust enough sometimes for injuries.

 

[Enfuego]

Yes sir ... $10 Rutgers - 14

I wager small compared to most here bro .... I enjoy the action and have plenty ...but my units

$5 a Unit ....

Once in a while I will hit a nice 7 teamer for $5 ..which helps the payroll .... but for the most part

$10 a Game is what I can afford ... with an occasional $25 to $50 Play ...thrown in

Been gambling over 40 years ...just a hobby now ...

BOL TY !!!

Trust me, some guys here aren't wagering what they say they are.

 

[Kaboom]

Rutgers (now -14.5) is one of the better bets in week #1. Line starting to move up now.

Wisc. last year had injuries on D and went 1-4 ATS when favored by 20+, 3-8-1 for the season ATS.

Michigan St had injuries throughout the year on offense and went 3-9 ATS for the season.

That's 6-17 against the spread with one push. (Used Phil Steele's spread numbers)

A trend on teams with multiple starters lost, say, by game 4 or 5, would be interesting. Teams with limited depth get hurt the most.

Both MSU and Wisc. started the seasons by not covering their opening games. (Did anyone notice Steele's mag has the MSU/Utah St score wrong!!)
Then things got worse as injuries piled up for both teams. Seems like the lines do not adjust enough sometimes for injuries.

Really solid feedback bro ... thx for the share !

Do you have 2 teams besides ...Bama or Clemson ...that can win it all ty ?

 

[Kaboom]

Trust me, some guys here aren't wagering what they say they are.

Probably a bunch of that going on with any forum ...but it's part of the software ....lol

 

[Serbone]

Kaboom:
I always like your posts, with great info, data, and angles!

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom:
I always like your posts, with great info, data, and angles!

Thx for the stop in Serbone !!!

Appreciate it !!!

 

[thekeyman]

Did you know ... last 2 years

Penn St has outscored Maryland 104 - 6 .... I played Penn St - 13.5 at Maryland on 9/27 ... 2 Units / $10

also

Alabama ...after Ole Miss seemed to play them tough for a few years ...

Last 2 Years Bama has Outscored Ole Miss .... 128 - 10 ....

Ole Miss does have 10 Return Starters on Defense ...will that help TY ??? ...but they only have 3 Return Starters on Offense vs that Bama Defense ....

I see a 50-0 Score ....lay it ...

On 9/28 ... Alabama at Home - 34 .... 2 Units / $10 ... also Bama was 7-4 ATS last year spreads over 20 points

Do ya think Alabama will start out the season with a blowout win??

 

[Kaboom]

Do ya think Alabama will start out the season with a blowout win??

Hope so bro ... BOL !!

 

[Kaboom]

Sunday or Monday Post will be ....

Double Digit Favorites that are tied or losing at the half .....their 2nd half lines .... Cover or Not Cover the 2nd Half Lines ....

 

[VegasKnows]

Always good stuff Kaboom! Keep it coming!!

Thanks!

 

[Kaboom]

Always good stuff Kaboom! Keep it coming!!

Thanks!

Thanks Vegas ... always appreciate the work / time I put in to provide us with an edge ...

All about sharing the wealth ....

BOL !!

 

[TimmyRules]

Take care and hope you don’t get carpal tunnel syndrome before season starts w-thumbs!^:think2:face)(*^%face)(*^%d1g1td1g1td1g1td1g1t

 

[Kaboom]

Double Digit Favorites that are tied or losing at the half .....ATS 2nd half lines ....

Final results ...

Wagering $10 a Game

62 Games where Double Digit Favorites were tied or losing at the Half

ATS Record for the 2nd Half ....on those losing DD Favorites ....

33 - 29 Ats ... at $10 a Game ...winning $9.09 per game online per juice ... Profit a brutal $9.97

Small Finds

The 3 Times where the 2nd Half Favorite Line went up 2 or more points .... they lost all 3 ATS 0-3

In other words ...example ... 2nd H Favorite Okla opened at - 7.5 ...and by the time 2nd H Kickoff came the line moved to Okla - 9.5 .... which lost ....

So it's obvious this rarely happens over a course of a season ...but regardless ...it is an edge

Wish there was more here guys that I can find


Another small find

Teams favored by 20 to 30 points Opening Line and were ....TIED AT THE HALF .....and the 2nd Half Line in which they were favored was lower than - 14 ..... The Favorite went 0-4 ATS ....



BOL !!