Journeyman said:
That is why I say 1-2%, I have my way of looking at it...Screw the 1-5 units that IMHO is a joke, that is nothing more than chasing. As far as baseball goes, of course you have to consider the ML, I don't bet huge chalk in baseball anyway, I am more about totals and slight favs/slight dogs in baseball.
To be 100% honest, baseball and college basketball are the only things I can say I do well enought at on my own...the NFL is a joke, college football I have had my moments but with the NFL mixed in I have not done well the past two years.
Why are you saying the books have a huge advantage over the flat bettor? You would have to be more specific.
Well to each their own. I believe that a person or player whichever way you wish to state it, Must NOT have a certain amount for Every bet. I believe that there are times in Everyones sports betting that you find something that you feel twice as good about vs the others.
The most succesful group in Sports betting History as you well know is BW and the Crew. They Do Not flatbet every game that they play. They send out Orders for certain numbers that they consider to have Value.
As far as your comment about chaseing is concerned, its not that at all.
Whenever BW or ANY group find Information about a certain position on the sports schedule they might or might not take a Bigger position, depending on what they think the Value to THAT number maybe.
Just ask any of your offshore makers and see what they have to tell you about flatbetters.
Ask Judge which the makers fear the most a guy that flatbets Every bet or a guy that plays UP when something comes down the road where they have or think they have an edge to the Number.
As you mention -07 is better than laying 11-10 over the course of a season, if you Lose enough games for that to matter vs the ratio of the BR.
In your system of laying -07 vs -10 it means 30.00 on Every game that is LOST.
I dont think that a pro such as your describeing is going to find more than 10 positions per week to play anyway, an thats quite a few.
So if that week you went 5-5 by laying -07 you would blow 350 vs 500 by laying 11-10. So thats is a savings of 150 in vig , which in turn, turns out to be 15% of the next bet. And of course that would make a big difference over the course of a season, no doubt.
But trying to outrun even the short juice is going to be very difficult for the flatbetter. IMO.