Journeyman said:Why is it so hard to only bet a dime a game if you have 100 grand to play with and a regular income as well?
I believe in flat betting.
J-Man NO disrespect in flat betting whatsoever. But think aobut this. If a flatbetter who plays chalks or even laying 11-10 such as the football or basketball, its just a matter of time before you get broke. Baseball chalk players have very little chance of winning for the year unless they can pick in EXCESS of 60%, just think about that. I know that those chalks HURT when they bite the dust as it takes sometimes as much as 1.5 to 1.75 winners to catch up to the point before that flatbet chalk bit the dust.
Now on the other hand the player who makes units go for 1-5, MUST win the BIG bets or same results happen. But being very selective with Information on the bigger bets gives one a better chance of wining for the week and the year.
The Books have such a HUGE advantage over the flatbetter its not even funny. Just ask one of them. Know a few players that are what you would call pro's and they flatbet until something GOOD comes along.
Insiders said:
That is why I say 1-2%, I have my way of looking at it...Screw the 1-5 units that IMHO is a joke, that is nothing more than chasing. As far as baseball goes, of course you have to consider the ML, I don't bet huge chalk in baseball anyway, I am more about totals and slight favs/slight dogs in baseball.
To be 100% honest, baseball and college basketball are the only things I can say I do well enought at on my own...the NFL is a joke, college football I have had my moments but with the NFL mixed in I have not done well the past two years.
Why are you saying the books have a huge advantage over the flat bettor? You would have to be more specific.
Journeyman said:yes but you bet a lot of ML favorites, you're a bit extreme for my taste Brock buddy...I am more conservative.
If you were a commodity you would be Cocoa! Extreme highs and lows
True, i am a ML player mostly, and when it goes good, like it has been for me of late, it can go REAL good...opposite is true, but usually doesn't last, if i can have a bank roll like i have now, with few debts to pay, i can and plan to keep this goin greal strong...have some serious goals that are pretty high up there, and i feel like they are reachable.
Maybe he's just trying to holler, get those digits. Damn Fishhead, the girl you brought to the Bash was money...but I guess all this baseball talk has gotten you hot and bothered for an early spring training workout with Choptalk? Pitchers and cathers are reporting soon...coincidence? I think not.
I have entirely too much time on my hands. Alright, back to the actual discussion, forgive my intrusion...I couldn't help it. These things just come to me. My mom is very proud.
I have entirely too much time on my hands. Alright, back to the actual discussion, forgive my intrusion...I couldn't help it. These things just come to me. My mom is very proud.
Flat betting is fine, with reduced juice you no longer need 52.38%, you can even get +money on exchanges and win at 50%. I vary it, sometimes the opinion you have combined with line you can get warrants it.
Then sometimes you like something, but line isn't too agreeable, pass or bet smaller. 1-3 units is plenty of variation for normal bets.
I'll sometimes bet a 5-6 team parlay for much less, if not getting screwed on lines, Trojan good for those.
How about if you have a big hoops dog +points for a unit, ever throw like .2 units on the +850 ML ?
Former poster Christian had good thoughts on this subject, albeit mainly straight from JR Miller's philosophy.
The opposite of the flat-better is the Kelly bettor, I never could figure out which bets had 53% expectation, or 56%, 59%, 43%, etc.
Then sometimes you like something, but line isn't too agreeable, pass or bet smaller. 1-3 units is plenty of variation for normal bets.
I'll sometimes bet a 5-6 team parlay for much less, if not getting screwed on lines, Trojan good for those.
How about if you have a big hoops dog +points for a unit, ever throw like .2 units on the +850 ML ?
Former poster Christian had good thoughts on this subject, albeit mainly straight from JR Miller's philosophy.
The opposite of the flat-better is the Kelly bettor, I never could figure out which bets had 53% expectation, or 56%, 59%, 43%, etc.
I guess I should have said it depends on the income you desire and the amount of stress you can handle.
100K to go full-time would make me go crazy even at 1% a play. In order to go full-time you would need to average at least 54% even with reduced juice and at least $3K per play betting no more than 1% of your bankroll. You cant do anything near that on 100K.
For most of us, it will never be anything more than a secondary income.
100K to go full-time would make me go crazy even at 1% a play. In order to go full-time you would need to average at least 54% even with reduced juice and at least $3K per play betting no more than 1% of your bankroll. You cant do anything near that on 100K.
For most of us, it will never be anything more than a secondary income.
I did it 100% of my income for about 8 years. Didn't start out with that much, but todays market is both better and worse.
Depending on your overhead you don't need that big a bankroll.
Also, you won't be hitting 54% either, nor should you try. Take leads, scalp, bonus whore, whatever you think you need to do, every little bit helps I guess. I would rather have free transfers and withdrawals than bonuses, but that is just me.
Mostly it is about discipline and recognizing "mistakes" more than anything. And no that doesn't mean betting more on a -5 line when it "should" be -7.
If you do not have another source of income then you have to take money out of your winnings, IF you are winning. So if you start off slow and then have to deduct to pay bills that has a major effect on the bankroll. Getting to a static bankroll is key. Meaning that that is all you need to have and no need to build it. Took me almost two years to build mine to where I needed it to be.
Mostly it just gets boring, and you have to do other things here and there. But if you are building you can't really "afford" to do that. But once you have what you need it is a little easier. Even if it is playing poker something to clear the head and keep fresh.
It sounds easy, and "glamorous", but when you need to make a profit to pay your bills it is anything but. It has more to do with the persons mentaility and make up than their "talent".
Depending on your overhead you don't need that big a bankroll.
Also, you won't be hitting 54% either, nor should you try. Take leads, scalp, bonus whore, whatever you think you need to do, every little bit helps I guess. I would rather have free transfers and withdrawals than bonuses, but that is just me.
Mostly it is about discipline and recognizing "mistakes" more than anything. And no that doesn't mean betting more on a -5 line when it "should" be -7.
If you do not have another source of income then you have to take money out of your winnings, IF you are winning. So if you start off slow and then have to deduct to pay bills that has a major effect on the bankroll. Getting to a static bankroll is key. Meaning that that is all you need to have and no need to build it. Took me almost two years to build mine to where I needed it to be.
Mostly it just gets boring, and you have to do other things here and there. But if you are building you can't really "afford" to do that. But once you have what you need it is a little easier. Even if it is playing poker something to clear the head and keep fresh.
It sounds easy, and "glamorous", but when you need to make a profit to pay your bills it is anything but. It has more to do with the persons mentaility and make up than their "talent".
Journeyman said:You gonna get kicked out of Olympic, Pinnacle, Grande or CRIS?
Spread it around
I doubt it, although one of them called me a pro last week. whatever - wish I was 1% as successful as some of the RX legends.
My point was, it's much easier at first when you have access to every book. There are only so many CRIS's out there that will take the pro's on, so I'd assume that makes it much harder to shop.
Then again, if you're a skilled lead taker, that's probably a non-issue.
With the proper Bankroll you should be sticking about half of your bankroll in Futures. If you shop for bargains you should walk out of each season with a nice profit on each sport, and that includes Season win totals, Division plays, and league plays. No brainer as far as I'm concerned:modemman: :money8:
CHOPTALK said:
MY POINT IS THIS , I AM AN EXTREMLY HIGH STRESS BETTOR, HOWEVER, IF YOU BET $1,000 WITH 100K ROLL, ITS NO STRESS AT ALL. NONE. AND LIKE I SAID BEFORE IT WOULD NEVER BE MY ONLY SOURCE, I WOULDN'T EVEN CONSIDER THAT .
AT 1% YOU SHOULD NEVER SWEAT IT. :toast: EVEN WHEN ITS FIXED LIKE THE SB WAS.:finger:
fathead said:That is only 10% per year. You can get 4% per year just sticking it in a money market fund. Come on Chop, I know you are sharper than that!
Thats reality. Nothing get rich quick about sportsbetting. Thats what it would take for me to go fulltime. If someone thinks thay can do the same with 500k thats 20%. Thats just not for me. Thats why I will never be fulltime.
Journeyman said:
Well to each their own. I believe that a person or player whichever way you wish to state it, Must NOT have a certain amount for Every bet. I believe that there are times in Everyones sports betting that you find something that you feel twice as good about vs the others.
The most succesful group in Sports betting History as you well know is BW and the Crew. They Do Not flatbet every game that they play. They send out Orders for certain numbers that they consider to have Value.
As far as your comment about chaseing is concerned, its not that at all.
Whenever BW or ANY group find Information about a certain position on the sports schedule they might or might not take a Bigger position, depending on what they think the Value to THAT number maybe.
Just ask any of your offshore makers and see what they have to tell you about flatbetters.
Ask Judge which the makers fear the most a guy that flatbets Every bet or a guy that plays UP when something comes down the road where they have or think they have an edge to the Number.
As you mention -07 is better than laying 11-10 over the course of a season, if you Lose enough games for that to matter vs the ratio of the BR.
In your system of laying -07 vs -10 it means 30.00 on Every game that is LOST.
I dont think that a pro such as your describeing is going to find more than 10 positions per week to play anyway, an thats quite a few.
So if that week you went 5-5 by laying -07 you would blow 350 vs 500 by laying 11-10. So thats is a savings of 150 in vig , which in turn, turns out to be 15% of the next bet. And of course that would make a big difference over the course of a season, no doubt.
But trying to outrun even the short juice is going to be very difficult for the flatbetter. IMO.
