i have had a good run lately. i generally bet a flat rate for each sport, although my base for nba and nfl is higer than college bb and college football. i have been grinding out a really good profit, but i put my entire bankroll in action everyday, and on weekends, i rollover my bankroll multiple times in a day. i guess 1% per play is conservative, but i have been pushing between 3 to 6 percent per play. i am comfortable with this style, but my style is more aggressive with a higher risk/reward outcome. i think the biggest tool to have is a good stable of 3-4 low juice books or books that reward you for volume if you want to make a living at this, or at least make this more than a hobby.
There is no point into getting into it with people here, but I spot some pretty big myths and fallacies in this thread. I will just say everyone is different and that is how professional gambling works. Those who are around 10-15 years from now found a way to first survive, then thrive and they do it in different ways. Far more have good intentions and talent, but something catches them and they aren't around. Some are like me, just realize at some point there is a better way to live and it isn't the pro gambler's life. No matter what just remember no matter what approach you take and what you hope to accomplish, chances are very good you won't make it. That is just the way it is. And if you do make it you may not be all that happy with what you have become, but if you do it long enough there may not be your old life to go back to.
Just some generalized advice from someone that has "been there, done that".
Just some generalized advice from someone that has "been there, done that".
1% of gamblers may have what it takes to make it, arque as you will wether it's money management, over-betting, or whatever , becomes their downside !
It still beats to hell the chances of the black kid that's a star on HS hoops team, of making it to the NBA, even if said kid gets to go to a basketball school on "scholarship" to like UNLV, Duke,NC, UCONN, Gonzaga, etc.
Maybe a 1% success rate ain't that bad ! Not good if you run a school for training potential truck drivers...
1% of our grads from Dingski's truck driving school, get a CDL within 14 years of graduating our school !
So what ?
1% can be good or bad dependant on the situation.
It still beats to hell the chances of the black kid that's a star on HS hoops team, of making it to the NBA, even if said kid gets to go to a basketball school on "scholarship" to like UNLV, Duke,NC, UCONN, Gonzaga, etc.
Maybe a 1% success rate ain't that bad ! Not good if you run a school for training potential truck drivers...
1% of our grads from Dingski's truck driving school, get a CDL within 14 years of graduating our school !
So what ?
1% can be good or bad dependant on the situation.
It is actually less than 1%. If you figure how many people gamble, and how many actually are able to PROVE they make a profit from it, not only to themselves (which is usually the hardest thing to do) but to others as well.
As I said in another post, that generally requires tax returns, and paperwork that no one is going to give to anyone buy a lawyer or an accountant.
It is one thing to kid yourself and guys around you that you make money, it is totally another to be able to show it.
Most guys that do this have a disposeable income, so the few wins they have countermand the losses, so even if they are marginal losers (which statistically most people should be) it appears to them they are marginal winners.
A vast majority of guys are going to fall with in that 48-52% range, which for all intents and purposes is a LOSING range, marginally losing, but still losing. If you have won 1,876,935 in your life time, and lost 1,880,235. You are a losing bettor. You have won a lot but you have lost more.
Again, since a vast majority do not keep records they do not know, you can be damn sure they know the winners, but those losers tend to be forgotten.
But just because guys lose doesn't mean they have to be buried, just like guys that can win really are not getting rich doing it either.
How many posts doyou see where guys say they turn 250 into 10,000? A lot right, those guys are more than likely, (and I would bet on it) long term losers. They risk take, they over bet, they have no plan. They have good runs, but they definately have WORSE runs. How many posts do you see that say they just truned 45K into $2.85? Not many, but there are probably a lot more of the latter than the former.
Most people just don't have the mentality or the personality to do it. The picking the winners is the EASY part, it is all the other stuff that gets in the way. That is why when people are placed in the more stressful situation they almost all ineviteably fail. Even the so called "sharp" guys out there.
As I said in another post, that generally requires tax returns, and paperwork that no one is going to give to anyone buy a lawyer or an accountant.
It is one thing to kid yourself and guys around you that you make money, it is totally another to be able to show it.
Most guys that do this have a disposeable income, so the few wins they have countermand the losses, so even if they are marginal losers (which statistically most people should be) it appears to them they are marginal winners.
A vast majority of guys are going to fall with in that 48-52% range, which for all intents and purposes is a LOSING range, marginally losing, but still losing. If you have won 1,876,935 in your life time, and lost 1,880,235. You are a losing bettor. You have won a lot but you have lost more.
Again, since a vast majority do not keep records they do not know, you can be damn sure they know the winners, but those losers tend to be forgotten.
But just because guys lose doesn't mean they have to be buried, just like guys that can win really are not getting rich doing it either.
How many posts doyou see where guys say they turn 250 into 10,000? A lot right, those guys are more than likely, (and I would bet on it) long term losers. They risk take, they over bet, they have no plan. They have good runs, but they definately have WORSE runs. How many posts do you see that say they just truned 45K into $2.85? Not many, but there are probably a lot more of the latter than the former.
Most people just don't have the mentality or the personality to do it. The picking the winners is the EASY part, it is all the other stuff that gets in the way. That is why when people are placed in the more stressful situation they almost all ineviteably fail. Even the so called "sharp" guys out there.
FWIW, my very TOP PLAYS constitute no MORE than 1% of my entire bankroll.
At this stage of my gambling career/age, that is what fits best for me personally.
Treat your gambling as any other financial investment.......consider money/energy needed, risk of ruin, and risk vs. reward and then map out a plan that fits your lifestyle/needs/desires.
-FISH-
INVEST with your head, NEVER over it!!
At this stage of my gambling career/age, that is what fits best for me personally.
Treat your gambling as any other financial investment.......consider money/energy needed, risk of ruin, and risk vs. reward and then map out a plan that fits your lifestyle/needs/desires.
-FISH-
INVEST with your head, NEVER over it!!
good post, the single biggest thing against the gambler is probably the overbet, you can't do 10% bets long term, maybe one every here and there ( preferably a lead with a partial buyback), even 5% is way strong.
It's the money management that kills the regular Joe picking 53-54 % pretty reliably in his sport, the guy with a 100 bets in a day has a method to his madness, nobody needs that much action.
The bonuses and low vig alone should make a new 50% guy a break even punter, with every bonus and option intact.
It's the money management that kills the regular Joe picking 53-54 % pretty reliably in his sport, the guy with a 100 bets in a day has a method to his madness, nobody needs that much action.
The bonuses and low vig alone should make a new 50% guy a break even punter, with every bonus and option intact.
People this 1%,2% max bet is BULLSHIT.You have to be prepared to bet up to 10% of your bankroll if the absolute right time presents itself.I'm not going to get into detail about when that "right time" is,but all I can say is that the true pro KNOWS when it is.When one has tremendous value at a given line you have to be prepared to bet more than your 1% max bet.I cant tell you how many times I've bet 10 to 15% of my bankroll on a particular situation.But I can assure you I'm happy I did.If you trust yourself and your information you have to play more than 2% if you want to grow.Other wise you'll just be spinning your wheels,trust me.GREENHEAD
Greenhead, that might be true for guys with disposeable incomes or guys building a bankroll, anyone that has a static bankroll that doesn't have to get any larger, betting that much is foolish. When you start doing that, thatis when what little dicipline thatcan be learned is lost. If a guy is grinding and grinding to make a leap forward, it only take a single 10% bet loss to put him below where he started.
I used to claim pretty much everything when I did it for a living. But I had a Las Vegas address, and shoe boxes full of losing tickets also. Like I said, if youmake money and want to claim it, get a good accountant, it isn't that big a deal actually. Especially the past few years with the Poker craze. You don't even have to specify what type of gambling it is. Obviously losing sports and horse tickets give it away, but they don't really care as long as they get theri money.
The legaility issue here is also a non factor. The nest BETTOR that gets prosecuted for making a bet will be the first, be it internet or with an illegal bookie.
The issue with legality is when these foriegn places decide not to pay you. There is no recourse for you to recoup your monies.
I used to claim pretty much everything when I did it for a living. But I had a Las Vegas address, and shoe boxes full of losing tickets also. Like I said, if youmake money and want to claim it, get a good accountant, it isn't that big a deal actually. Especially the past few years with the Poker craze. You don't even have to specify what type of gambling it is. Obviously losing sports and horse tickets give it away, but they don't really care as long as they get theri money.
The legaility issue here is also a non factor. The nest BETTOR that gets prosecuted for making a bet will be the first, be it internet or with an illegal bookie.
The issue with legality is when these foriegn places decide not to pay you. There is no recourse for you to recoup your monies.
Once again a few have said that 1% 2% is the way to go, but then others say that at the Right time 10% -15% is the way to go. I guess this all comes down to the statement that Everyone is different in there own way.
Talked to a friend of mine in the offshore industry this morning. He agrees that when the time is Right or in his an mines case when the Information is right you have to step up to the plate and make a bigger size wager, as in units of 1-2-3-5.
Another firend in Las Vegas has already capped the entire cfb schedule before sunday night line comes out. He goes down the schedule and makes Flatbets where His line allows him too.
Both say the same things, its ALL about INFORMATIOM vs THAT NUMBER !
Talked to a friend of mine in the offshore industry this morning. He agrees that when the time is Right or in his an mines case when the Information is right you have to step up to the plate and make a bigger size wager, as in units of 1-2-3-5.
Another firend in Las Vegas has already capped the entire cfb schedule before sunday night line comes out. He goes down the schedule and makes Flatbets where His line allows him too.
Both say the same things, its ALL about INFORMATIOM vs THAT NUMBER !
GREENHEAD said:
Greenhead, congratulations on MY PERSONAL best post of this young year! I have been trying to formulate the exact same thing in my own thread. Since I primarily do college football, I promise that on the Rubberband Games I am between 10-15% At a certain point, I would take profits and refigure the BR. I would NOT recommend this for beginners or some one that has a limited BR.Having a LOT of experience matters. How many times when you first see a line on a game that you know that IT is IT. I have NEVER subscribed to the notion that a play was a play and they should ALL be treated egually.
LTInsiders said:
Insiders, I do a variation of what your LV friend does on sunday for the early line. I use 3 schedules for every week. One schedule has beside each team such info as team to be played the following week. Notations such as LA=look a head. LD=Letdown 3OR4=3rd or 4th game in a row on the road. BL=brutal loss R=revenge A=ascending D=descending Q=quit and so forth. I specifically opened an account with Oly and Cris so I could play the early #s. I already had a Pinny acct. Great topics,
LT
