MLB Season Long Picks - Sportscappersparadise

[shibbets]

Very tough day for us yesterday. Let’s bounce back.



6/24 week
Monday 2-1 +1.05
Tuesday 2-2 -.19
Wednesday 1-4 -3.69 units
Total 5-7 -2.83 units



The RX Record
53-45-1 +7.75 units



Rays +105
No Rosario for the Twins and Perez who is starting has a bad history vs the Rays, 0-4 with a 7.49 ERA, gives up a .427 OBP and a .382 AVG vs the Rays current starters. This should be the game they bounce back and avoid the sweep.


Let’s go!

 

[shibbets]

Braves +103.
Today the Money and Public has made the Cubs a favorite. Wilson for the Braves isn’t the greatest but the line opened -105 for both sides with Chatwood playing. Vegas always knows more than us, and did not open the cubs favorites. Now they are due to money but Chatwood has given up a .512 OBP against the Braves starters and a .447 AVG. He typically struggles against them. Today’s over under is 10.5 so this implies both pitchers to somewhat struggle but I’m trusting in the better bats. The Cubs haven’t done much scoring 3 and 2 in their first two games vs the Braves. I think Kimbrel is overhyped, if he will be a game changer then the line would be higher on the cubs today. Let’s go!!

 

[shibbets]

Arizona -104

 

[shibbets]

Braves blow a 6-1 lead to ruin our 3-0 day.

2-1 +1.05 units today

The RX Record
55-46-1 +8.80 units

 

[shibbets]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Rangers +115[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Mets -140[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Royals +113[/FONT][/FONT]

 

[shibbets]

Cardinals +125

 

[shibbets]

Angels -134

 

[shibbets]

Ugly Day Yesterday. Looking for a bounce back Saturday.

The RX Record
56-40-1 +5.21 units

5 plays on the 1p slate

Braves/Mets Over 10 -115
Braves are barely favored today, which implies a toss up game where either team can win. This implies to us that it will be back and forth today and feel that both pitchers struggle and the runs will come in.

Twins -144
White Sox used 6 guys from their pen yesterday, and the Twins have not lost 3 straight in a row once this year.

Reds -125
Yesterday, Hamels was taken out and the Cubs had to go to their bullpen really early. Today they will relay heavily on Quintana and need him to go long, but in his last 3 games, he’s struggled to keep his pitch count low and was only able to go 4-5 innings. In those games, he’s given up 9,2 and 4 runs. Castillo is off his worst game, and is looking to bounce back today going 3 innings vs the Brewers and giving up 6 runs, in a game we took the over in. Before that, he consistently went 6 innings 3 straight only giving up 1,1 and 2 runs. The public is all over the cubs today, but the Reds have the 2nd ranked bullpen and they didn’t have to use much yesterday. Votto has historically done very well vs Quintana. We see some value in the Reds today and if Quintana can’t go long, it could get out of control for the cubs.


Rays -1.5 (even)
Rays/Rangers Under 8 (even)
Rangers are on a 6 game winning streak and just took down the Rays 5-0. Now they are starting Sampson who is off a game giving up only 1 run in 7 innings. The Rays are starting their top pitching prospect today, making his debut and Vegas has put out a whopping -190 line. Yesterday the line was only -130 for the Rays when they started Chirinos and he had a 3.00 era. Vegas respects McKay big time, and they obviously know more than we do, so we will also respect him by taking the Rays RL and the Under. If this guy is the real deal, by how the line is set today, the Rays should win 5-1 or 5-2, something similar to what Lynn did to the Rays yesterday. Sampson isn’t horrible, he’s had many games this year giving up only 1-2 runs. If he can stick to the same today and the bullpen giving up some, we see the Rays cover and the under hit.

 

[varkeyboy]

Good luck & great analysis!

 

[shibbets]

Thank you varkey! Need help in the Mets/Braves over, we really liked the starters to give up runs today but the weather delay screwed things up. So far not helping. 3-1 today with the over pending.

Adding

Pirates/Brewers over 9 -115The public is on the under today, which is somewhat understandable with how woodruff has been pitching. We should expect him to go 6-7 innings today, and with the Pirates bats, each game you don’t know who shows up. If they can get 3-4 runs today, we believe that the Brewers will have 5-6 on their own, which can push this over. Lyles has struggled lately and has given up 3-4 runs in his last 3, doesn’t seem much right? However, he’s only gone 6 innings once in those 3 and was only able to go 3-4 innings in two of those games. If he struggles early as we expect, we get to see the 27th ranked bullpen early. Historically both pitchers vs the current teams roster has given up between .382 - .416 OBP, so we should see a good amount of guys on base today. Only takes a couple hits to bring them in and the over to hit. Let’s go!!!

 

[shibbets]

Adding

Giants/Dbacks under 7.5 -120Pomeranz’s last 3 home games he’s given up 2,2, and 0 runs going 5 innings each. Those were to some solid teams (dodgers, brewers and Rockies). He gets arizona again who hit him hard at home for 5 runs in 2 innings and was pulled early. Before that game he had a solid outing vs arizona only giving up 2’ runs on 5/19. He is usually pulled early because he can’t seem to keep his pitch count low so he can’t go long but the good thing is that the Giants ranks 5th in bullpen ERA. The Dbacks are starting Greinke off two games that are mediocre, giving up 4 and 5 runs to the Dodgers and Rockies. Now he gets a chance to bounce back vs who has scored 0-4 runs in their last 5 games except their last game vs Arizona, they got 6. Arizona’s bullpen gave up 3 runs right after Kelly was removed in the 5th. Today, Grienke will be able to go longer than Kelly, hoping to see at least 7 innings out of him. If we see him bounce back today, and Pomeranz play like he usually Does at home, we should see a 4-3 or 4-2 type of game where the Under hits. The public is leaning towards the over but after digging in further, we will be taking the under tonight.

 

[shibbets]

Was so close to being 5-2, the ball didn’t bounce our way and we go 4-3.

The RX Record
60-43-1 +5.66 units


Cubs/Reds over 10.5 -120
Yesterdsy it ended 6-0, and the first game ended 6-3, and both those games over unders were sitting 9 and 9.5, but today the line is a whopping 10.5 and some books are at 11. Why so high? Both pitchers are decent, and the bats haven’t been great based off the first two games. This line is asking for under money but Vegas expects to be a slugging game today but setting such a big line out. Both pitchers historically do well vs these teams, so why such a high line? Something smells, take the over

 

[shibbets]

2 plays
Dodgers RL -1.5 -115
Dodgers over 13.5 -115
The Rockies bullpen has been well spent this series, and we should see the struggle today. The first 5 innings over under is 7.5, and Chi Chi only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in SF, this is his 2nd start and at home where the ball flys vs the heavy hitters of the dodgers, I think he struggles big time today and we should see the dodgers win big after the Rockies bullpen comes in for a derby. Let’s go!

 

[shibbets]

Giants Under 7 +105

 

[shibbets]

Sorry just caught an error in my record. Not 43 losses it’s 53

The RX Record
60-53-1 +5.66 units

 

[shibbets]

Mets -103

Going to hate ourselves here but the world is betting the Braves today on prime time and it’s only -108 on our book. It’s either a public blood bath or Vegas wants to give away free money today... Fried is 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA in seven career games against the Mets and Syndergard is coming off an injury. This line looks too easy today! The Mets have lost 7 straight! No one will back them. Why is Vegas giving away free money? We don’t think they are and need to take the Mets tonight. Let’s do this!! Mets -103

 

[shibbets]

What a come back by the Mets!!!!
Dodgers clean up!
cubs reds over hit!

4-1 today, we go 8-4 over the weekend to bounce back from a down week!

The RX Record
64-54-1 +8.66 units

 

[shibbets]

2 plays today

Padres -165
We hate taking big favorites but we really like the Padres today. Allen has looked sharp and has showed us he can go 6-7 innings. Jeff has been inconsistent all year, and in his last 4 games, he’s given up 5,5,4 and 3 runs going 5-6 innings. The Padres should be pissed about losing last night to the Cardinals and come out swinging. The Giants are celebrating their explosive 10-4 win but should come right back down to earth. We feel good about the pads today, let’s go!

Pirates +116
Alzolay gets another star today, but this time he is on the road. He pitched well in his first two starts but he was only able to go 4 innings. Now he’s getting a road start vs a Pirates team that has won 7 of their last 10 games. They lost two in a row vs the Brewers only putting up 1 run in both those games. We believe they will be able to get this rookies pitch count high early and get the bullpen. Williams came back from his injury and gave up 7 runs to the Tigers but then bounced back by giving up 4 to Houston on the road. Before his injury, he was averaging 6-7 innings, so if we see the old Williams pitching the way he did, we can see the Pirates taking game 1 of this series. The Pirates really need him to go long because their bullpen is not very good. We leaned to the under in this game as well, but we don’t know which pirate team shows up today. The one that wins 4-2 or 5-3, or one that explodes and scores 8-12 runs. For that reason, we are only taking the side in this one, take the Pirates +116. Let’s go!!

 

[varkeyboy]

Get em today! best of luck.

 

[shibbets]

1-1 Yesterday. Got really busy today and was able to post 4 games at 4p on our Instagram but did not make it on here in time. Sorry. Will leave those 4 games off of here.

The RX Record
65-55-1 +8.17 units

One play so far

Tigers 1st 5 innings -118