MLB prop bets ======Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+370)​

The Houston Astros exploded for 12 runs last night, and that isn't out of the question again tonight.

A 4.97 implied run total for the Astros puts them among the highest on the slate and a great spot to look for player props. They will be taking on Colin Rea, who has been up and down from the minors for the Milwaukee Brewers while serving as a starter and a reliever.

To this point in the season, Rea has allowed a .396 SLG, 5.12 xFIP, 1.93 HR/9, 11.7% walk rate, 45.0% fly-ball rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. He's simply not good, and with the Brewers having a bottom-five bullpen, we should see plenty of runs tonight.

This brings us to Kyle Tucker, who comes in with a 111 wRC+, 181 ISO, .331 wOBA, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He also comes in among the top 90th percentile or higher in xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA, according to BaseballSavant.

He has a good matchup, good odds, and good underlying metrics. Of course, I'll look to add Tucker To Record an RBI (+100).

MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)​

The Washington Nationals will have MacKenzie Gore on the mound tonight, and he has a strikeout prop worth considering.

Gore is a promising young pitcher and is starting to truly show it off with a 29.0% strikeout rate, 12.7% swinging-strike rate, and 28.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). The pieces are starting to come together for Gore, who has been over this 5.5 mark in seven of his nine starts this season. We also see him in 93-plus pitches in eight of his nine starts, showing there's no issue for him getting deep into the game.

On a game-by-game basis, Gore has pushed his strikeout rate to 33% or higher three separate times -- a strong sign of his potential ceiling.

The San Diego Padres come in with a 22.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league. However, since the start of May, that rate has bumped up to 25.0%, which is the seventh-worst in the league during that time. The Padres are struggling a bit at the plate, and this is the chance for Gore to pile up the strikeouts.

Jorge Soler To Record an RBI (-115)​

A game at Coors Field is always a great spot to look for some hitter props.

Things can be simple when it comes to MLB player props. We have the best hitter's park in the league, we have a great hitter, and we have solid odds for an RBI. The Miami Marlins have a slate-hight 5.74 implied run total and are set to take on Austin Gomber, which presents a very favorable matchup for Jorge Soler.

This season, Gomber has a .360 wOBA, .504 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 15.0% strikeout rate, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. While at home in this split, those numbers are even worse. This is truly a juicy matchup for some offense tonight.

We turn to Soler, who is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 320 wRC+, .646 wOBA, .719 ISO, .333 BABIP 64.0% fly-ball rate, and 56.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. These are video-game-type numbers for Soler, and it has to be my favorite prop of the day.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Wed

Justin Turner To Hit a Home Run (+400)​

The Boston Red Sox have a 4.82 implied run total tonight and looking to get their offense back on track.

After a few slow games, the Red Sox have a favorable matchup versus Tyler Anderson to put up some runs and show the power they have. This season, Anderson is allowing a .380 wOBA, .534 SLG, 6.23 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, and 50.4% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. I say this with no exaggeration -- Anderson might be one of the worst pitchers in the league versus righties.

We should jump on this chance with Justin Turner, who's having a bit of a resurgence this season. So far this year, Turner has a 146 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .218 ISO, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 42.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Turner normally has Rafael Devers hitting behind him, so Turner will see good pitches to hit.

As usual, I'm adding Turner To Record an RBI (+135).

Teoscar Hernandez To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)​

The Seattle Mariners' offense should continue to roll versus the Oakland Athletics tonight.

It's no surprise, but the Athletics have a terrible pitching staff, and we want to consistently target player props against them. Ken Waldichuk will be on the mound, he comes in with a .415 wOBA, .579 SLG, 5.55 xFIP, 11.8% walk rate, 2.50 HR/9, and 42.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

The Mariners should be able to flex their offense tonight with this matchup, and we should be turning to Teoscar Hernandez. This season, Hernandez has a 98 wRC+, .306 wOBA, .295 ISO, 46.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

The power is clearly there for Hernandez coming off of two hitless games, so this is his spot to bounce back.

Matt Boyd Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)​

A simple under on a strikeout prop to close things out today.

Matt Boyd isn't a great pitcher. That's what this really boils down to. His 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, and 5.26 xFIP are not good. That has caused him to hit the under on this mark in six of his eight starts, putting us on the right side of things tonight.

His matchup against the Kansas City Royals isn't as favorable as you might imagine. Sure, the Royals aren't a great team, but they're also not wasting chances at the plate. This season, the Royals have a 21.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-lowest rate in the league. That rate drops to 20.1% when they are at home versus lefties as they are tonight.

Boyd isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher, and this isn't the matchup for him. It's the under all the way.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Thur

Jake Burger To Hit a Home Run (+350)/
Gavin Sheets To Hit a Home Run (+480)​

With a bit of wind blowing out in Detroit, a pair of White Sox hitters are in a great spot for a home run.

Favorable hitting conditions and a bad pitcher are the ideal combination when looking for some home run props. That's what we have for the White Sox, who come in with a 4.26 implied run total tonight. They are set to take on Alex Faedo, who only has 15.2 innings pitched this season, so let's look back at his career numbers starting last year.

For his career, Faedo has allowed a .341 wOBA, .479 ISO, 5.36 xFIP, 1.66 H/9, 49.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Against righties, he has allowed a .350 wOBA, .453 ISO, 4.45 xFIP, 1.44 HR/9, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate. It's bad on both sides for Faedo, putting Jake Burger and Gavin Sheets in a good matchup.

Burger comes in with a 126 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .333 ISO, 43.1% fly-ball rate, and 45.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Sheets enters with a 114 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .186 ISO, 52.3% fly-ball rate, and 27.9% hard-contact rate versus righties.

Some favorable wind blowing out to right field and a weak pitcher should put the White Sox in a spot for some homers tonight.

Anthony Rizzo To Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)​

The New York Yankees have a solid 4.71 implied run total and a great matchup versus Kyle Gibson.

When it comes to Gibson, he's a very non-threatening pitcher on the mound. What I mean by that is he's carrying a 15.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters, compared to the league average of 22.6%. He doesn't punch out many hitters at the plate and gets hit around a lot.

This season, he has a .398 wOBA, .535 SLG, 4.66 xFIP, and .363 BABIP versus left-handed hitters. He's not making hitters swing and miss at the plate with a 9.7% swinging-strike rate, putting hitters in a great spot for contact and balls in play.

We turn to Anthony Rizzo, who has a 139 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .319 BABIP, .240 ISO, and 39.4% hard-contact rate versus righties this season. He's as consistent as they come and has great odds tonight versus Gibson.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Friday

Jose Altuve To Hit a Home Run (+440)​

The Houston Astros have a very strong 5.18 implied run total and a favorable matchup for some homers.

With Jose Altuve returning to the Astros' lineup, it's that much better and presents a very difficult task for opposing pitchers. As a reminder, Altuve missed the beginning of the season with a hand injury, so we'll look back to his numbers from last season. In 2022, Altuve had a 148 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .202 ISO, and 36.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. That's solid stuff across the board.

For the Oakland Athletics, they will have James Kaprielian on the mound tonight. He has only 28.0 innings pitched this season since being up and down from the minors. We'll glance at his 2022 numbers, where he allowed a .340 wOBA, .436 SLG, 5.25 xFIP, 1.26 HR/9, and 47.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

Add in a little bit of wind blowing out to right tonight, and it puts Altuve in a nice spot to knock one out.

Mitch Keller Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)​

Mitch Keller is a stud. That's the short answer when it comes to Keller tonight.

Of course, there's a long answer, as Keller has taken a massive step forward for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season and is showing ace-type material on the mound.

Last season, he posted a 20.1% strikeout rate, 8.7% swinging-strike rate, and 25.8% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Those were all modest numbers, but they have jumped up this season to a 30.7% strikeout rate, 10.0% swinging-strike rate, and 30.1% CSW%. It's a noticeable increase in production for Keller, and with him pushing towards 100 pitches every game, he should have plenty of time to rack up the strikeouts.

He will be taking on the Seattle Mariners, who come in with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. This is the ideal matchup for Keller to continue his strong start to the season.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)​

We have a great hitter with great odds tonight -- it's as simple as that.

The New York Yankees are calling up Randy Vasquez to make his MLB debut tonight against the San Diego Padres. Vasquez has been very average in Triple-A this season with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 11.7% walk rate, 1.05 HR/9, and .348 BABIP. Frankly, there's nothing suggesting he is a dominant top prospect and ready to make an easy transition to the MLB.

When this is the case, I'm going to side with a proven MLB hitter with odds at plus money, and tonight that is Xander Bogaerts. This season, Bogaerts has a 134 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .159 ISO, .330 BABIP, and 20.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste too many chances at the plate, and he's putting the ball in play for hits.

With the Padres carrying a 4.61 implied run total, they're expected to get some runners on base, and Bogaerts should play a big part in that.

 

[MAGAking1]

little fri eve gamble

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Sat

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, May 27​

Shohei Ohtani, over 7.5 strikeouts (-105)​

This is tied for the highest total on the slate today, and yet we’re still taking the over — Ohtani is just that good. The Los Angeles Angels superstar has cleared this number in six of 10 starts this year, and really it’s six of nine if you throw out a rain-shortened, two-inning outing back in April.


He gets to go up against a Miami Marlins outfit on Saturday that’s very righty-heavy right now, with Joey Wendle and Luis Arraez the only lefties that figure to be in the lineup. Ohtani has chewed up righties this year, with a miniscule .138/.283/.266 slash line allowed, and with Miami in the bottom third of the league in OPS and K rate against right-handed starters, he should rack up at least eight or nine strikeouts.

Andrew Heaney, under 15.5 outs recorded (-105)​

Heaney’s been on a roll of late, with four total earned runs allowed over 18.2 innings in his last three starts. But don’t be fooled: The lefty is among the most mercurial starters in all of baseball, capable of looking dominant in one outing and awful the next. Case in point: In Heaney’s first start against the Baltimore Orioles this year, the lefty gave up seven runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2.2 frames.


Baltimore has crushed southpaws all year, with the eighth-highest OPS in baseball, and this is a prime spot for guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander. Heaney has a pronounced platoon split, with an OPS allowed to righties that’s over 400 points higher than his mark against lefties, and I think the O’s will knock him out relatively early on Saturday.

Nathaniel Lowe, over 1.5 total bases (+125)​

On the other side of that game, there’s a red-hot Texas Rangers lineup going up against a righty in Dean Kremer who’s struggled badly against left-handed hitters this season. Lefties are slashing a robust .351/.400/.536 off him, with nine extra-base hits in 10 starts, and that puts Lowe in a great spot to clear this number at plus odds. The first baseman has been scalding of late, with a .412/.500/.529 line and four doubles over his last nine games. Camden Yards is still very friendly to lefty power, so everything is working in Lowe’s favor today.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+390)​

The Atlanta Braves come in with a juicy 5.11 implied run total and can exceed that in a hurry tonight.

The Braves have the best lineup in the MLB and present power at nearly every spot. This puts opposing pitchers in a tough spot, and it prevents them from being able to pitch around certain hitters. This gives the Braves' bats a chance to see good pitches, and we want to capitalize on that.

Tonight, they will be taking on JP Sears, who is seriously struggling versus right-handed hitters this season. To this point in the year, Sears has allowed a .329 wOBA, .500 SLG, 4.49 xFIP, 2.47 HR/9, 58.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.1% hard-contact rate versus righties. Those are some tough numbers to be sporting against a Braves lineup that could realistically roll with seven righties tonight.

We'll turn to Sean Murphy, who comes in with a 183 wRC+, .449 wOBA, .289 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 45.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Murphy's StatCast page is awesome as he's sitting in the top 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, per BaseballSavant.

As usual, I'll also be adding Murphy To Record an RBI (+125).

Lucas Giolito Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)​

When it comes to a pitcher prop, under 6.5 strikeouts for Lucas Giolito is the spot I'm looking at tonight.

Giolito is a good pitcher, but he's lacking a bit of upside this season on the hill. He comes in with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 11.9% swinging-strike rate, and 27.6% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). These are no doubt good numbers, but they're not great. He's also been limited with his pitch count, being held to 93 pitches or fewer in each of his last four starts. Through 11 starts this season, Giolito has been under this 6.5 mark in seven outings.

The matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is simply an OK spot. They come in with a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 14th in the league. This isn't an overwhelmingly favorable matchup for high strikeouts, and Giolito hasn't really shown that upside this season. Under 6.5 strikeouts is the way to look tonight.

Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

With a slate-high 5.69 implied run total, the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to get plenty of runners on base.

This is a rather straightforward spot for the Dodgers, and that should point us directly to Mookie Betts, who is one of the best hitters in the league. He will be taking on Jake Irvin, who made his MLB debut earlier this season and only has 22.0 innings pitched. We have a small sample size, but it's all we have to work with.

Irvin comes in with a .328 wOBA, .321 BABIP, 5.79 xFIP, 19.6% strikeout rate, and 13.0% walk rate versus right-handed hitters. There's nothing to suggest from his stats in the MLB or from the minor leagues that Irvin is a dominant pitcher on the mound.

Betts is a perennial MVP candidate and comes in with a 126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .224 ISO, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.2% hard-contact rate versus righty pitchers. Betts is elite, and backing him to pick up two bases as the leadoff hitter is one of my favorite bets of the night.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Wed

Daulton Varsho To Hit a Home Run (+400)​

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.31 implied run total tonight and a matchup that should present plenty of offensive opportunity.

They will be taking on Julio Teheran, who has had an interesting past few years. Teheran recently signed with the Milwaukee Brewers and has only one start under his belt this season. Teheran didn't pitch in 2022, only pitched 5.0 innings in 2021, and pitched 31.1 innings in 2020. We have to go back to 2019 to find a decent sample size for Teheran when he was with the Atlanta Braves.

In 2019, Teheran allowed a .358 SLG, 6.12 xFIP, 1.15 HR/9, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Those numbers are largely in line with his career numbers, maybe even slightly better.

When it comes to the Blue Jays, they have a ton of power up and down their lineup, but Daulton Varsho has my eye tonight. He comes in with a modest 82 wRC+, .189 ISO, .288 wOBA, 48.4% fly-ball rate, and 33.9% hard-contact rate.

Some of those are relatively average in the grand scheme of things, but the fly-ball rate is very strong against a pitcher who allows too many fly balls. He's due for some positive regression with those numbers compared to his career averages and with solid odds tonight, he's worth a look.

James Paxton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)​

James Paxton has a strikeout prop worth considering tonight versus the Cincinnati Reds.

Paxton comes in with only three starts this season and has been able to post a very strong 31.7% strikeout rate, along with a 9.4% swing-strike rate and 28.7% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Three starts is no doubt a small sample size but Paxton posted a 28.3% strikeout rate or higher in each season from 2017-2020.

It's also encouraging to see Paxton up at 87 and 108 pitches in his first two starts. In his most recent outing, he threw only 59 pitches but was simply pulled early after allowing five runs. He should be in a spot to reach for 90+ pitches again and that should put him in a spot to hit over 5.5 strikeouts.

The matchup against the Reds sets up to be a good one since they come in with a 22.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 12th worst in the league. Paxton has 19 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched this season and with this matchup, he should only add to those totals tonight.

Randal Grichuk To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)​

With a 4.46 implied run total, the Colorado Rockies should see a bit of offense tonight.

The Rockies are taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will have Tommy Henry on the mound. Henry is a younger pitcher and his first year in the MLB is off to a rough start. This season, Henry has allowed a .417 SLG, .317 wOBA, 5.72 xFIP, 1.38 HR/9, and 48.8% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. He also only carries a low 15.0% strikeout rate, making him a non-threatening pitcher on the mound.

This should put the Rockies' hitters in a spot to put the ball in play and reach for their solid (4.46) implied run total tonight. I'm turning to Randal Grichuk, who is rocking a 200 wRC+, .492 wOBA, .273 ISO, .421 BABIP, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 35.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Grichuk is hot at the dish with five multi-hit games over his last nine outings, something he should be able to continue tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Thur

Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-106)​

The Toronto Blue Jays will turn to their ace, Kevin Gausman, as they close out their series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Gausman has shown to be elite over the last few seasons, and in 2023, things are no different. He comes in with a 31.9% strikeout rate. 5.7% walk rate, 2.83 xFIP, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, and 29.5% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). That's solid top to bottom, and it has allowed Gausman to reach over this 7.5 mark in six of his 11 starts this season.

He's been over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts and is truly one of the only pitchers the Blue Jays trust to go deep into games.

All of that should be on full display today against the Brewers, who come in with a 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-highest in the league. With the Blue Jays' bullpen seeing a heavy workload over the last two games, Gausman should have a long leash, giving him a chance to rack up the strikeouts in a favorable matchup.

Ketel Marte To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)​

With a 5.56 implied run total, the Arizona Diamondbacks top the slate and are primed for some offense today.

When an offense is expected to score that many runs, we should be targeting their player props. If a team is going to be scoring runs, they are going to be getting runners on base. It's as simple as that.

This brings us to Ketel Marte, who's having a solid bounce-back season this year.

He comes in with a 107 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .185 ISO, 16.8% strikeout rate, .296 BABIP, and 36.6% hard-contact rate. Marte isn't wasting any chances at the plate with a solid strikeout rate and is putting the ball in play at a good clip. This puts him in a favorable spot against Chase Anderson.

Anderson hasn't pitched more than 50.0 innings in a season since 2019, when he allowed a .343 SLG, 5.19 xFIP, 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, and 48.0% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. I'll take Marte in this matchup 10 times out of 10.

 

[samdawg]

Great stuff Man - appreciate your posts.

- if you can’t it’s ok; where do you look for all the great stats you post?
Thx again

 

[MAGAking1]

Great stuff Man - appreciate your posts.

- if you can’t it’s ok; where do you look for all the great stats you post?
Thx again

Much of it comes from Numberfire.....I like them because they give good writeups for their plays and people can choose to play or fade based on the info......sometimes I go against them when I disagree with their analysis.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Fri

Nolan Gorman to Hit a Home Run (+370)​

The St. Louis Cardinals have a 4.99 implied run total tonight and are primed for plenty of offense.

With hot temperatures and a great matchup, there should be plenty of scoring tonight when the Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 9.5 over/under is a good indication we are in for some fireworks, and we want to target some player props that reflect that.

The Pirates will have Roansy Contreras on the mound, a pitcher we can look to target with some lefty hitters. This season, Contreras is allowing a .457 SLG, .350 wOBA, 6.29 xFIP, 1.09 HR/9, 44.0% fly-ball rate, 34.1% hard-contact rate, and 8.1% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters.

The HR/FB ratio is rather interesting considering the league average versus lefties is 12.3%. The league average for fly-balls versus lefties is 37.2%. Contreras is allowing more fly balls than the league average but allowing fewer home runs. That doesn't add up and points to him being due to allow more homers.

That leads me to Nolan Gorman, who is in the midst of a breakout season and brings plenty of power to this dish. This year versus righties, he has a 145 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .268 ISO, 40.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.7% hard-contact rate. Gorman also sits in the 88th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, according to BaseballSavant.

It's a great matchup and great weather, putting Gorman in an awesome spot. As always, I'm adding Gorman To Record an RBI (+120).

Garrett Whitlock Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)​

For a strikeout prop tonight, I'm rolling with under 4.5 strikeouts for Garrett Whitlock.

There are multiple factors leading me to the under for Whitlock, so let's jump in. First off, there's a potential for rain tonight in Boston, which always adds a bit of a wrinkle to betting some unders. Whitlock could start the game, a rain delay occurs, the game resumes, and Whitlock doesn't return. It happens time and time again, and if it occurs tonight, that would give us a super easy under on his strikeouts.

Of course, I'm not banking on just rain for this under. The matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays is really tough. They come in with a 22.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-lowest in the league. On top of that, they have a .208 ISO (2nd), 127 wRC+ (1st), and 39.7% fly-ball rate (6th) in the split. The Rays are awesome.

Whitlock also comes in with a very modest 18.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. Both those are lower than what he posted in his previous two seasons, and with a difficult matchup tonight, he's not in a spot to get those numbers back to higher levels.

Salvador Perez to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)​

With a 4.87 implied run total, Kansas City Royals are a solid place to look for a player prop tonight.

The visiting Rockies will have Chase Anderson on the mound. Anderson comes in with a .326 SLG, 5.20 xFIP, 11.8% strikeout rate, and 40.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Anderson is simply not a pitcher you need to be worried about, and we should be siding with the Royals' hitters tonight.

We turn to Salvador Perez, who is crushing righties this season to the tune of a 138 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .278 ISO, .321 BABIP, 46.7% fly-ball rate, and 36.7% hard-contact rate. At nearly even money, Perez is in a great spot to grab two bases against a bad pitcher.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 sat props

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, June 3​

Eury Perez, under 1.5 earned runs (+125)​

Perez put together arguably the best outing of his young career last time out, blanking the Los Angeles Angels over five innings while allowing just two hits. His command has been a little spotty so far, but the Miami Marlins righty has shown plenty of glimpses of why he was among the top pitching prospects in baseball entering the season, with a gaudy 88th-percentile whiff rate. Now he gets to go up against an Oakland Athletics lineup that’s been almost inconceivably bad of late, with a 41 wRC+ that’s a whopping 30 points below the next-lowest team in the league. I’d be shocked if Perez gets knocked around on Saturday.

Michael Grove, under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)​

Grove struggled mightily across his first four starts of the season, posting an 8.44 ERA and 1.750 WHIP before landing on the IL with a groin injury. Saturday will be his first start since, and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of him hitting this number against the New York Yankees.


The righty has only cleared this number once all year, largely thanks to an inability to miss bats (he owns a puny 14th-percentile whiff rate). It’s also an open question just how long the Dodgers will let him go given that this is his first game back from more than a month of rehab — Grove made two Minor League starts in late May, topping out at just 77 pitches. With a somewhat limited pitch count and a Yankees offense that’s swinging the bats much better lately, he should fall short of this total.

Alex Bregman, over 1.5 total bases (+120)​

After a slow start, Bregman has heated up a bit lately, currently riding a nine-game hitting streak during which he’s slashing .400/.432/.543 with a homer and two doubles. I like that streak to continue on Saturday against Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval, against whom Bregman is a .455/.539/1.000 lifetime hitter — including a matchup back in May in which the Houston Astros star went 2-for-4 with a triple. Sandoval has been far from his best lately, and I’ll take Bregman to have a big day at the plate at plus odds.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Mon

Andrew McCutchen To Hit a Home Run (+390)​

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 4.78 implied run total and could exceed that in a hurry tonight.

They will be taking on JP Sears, who is a pitcher we are going to target every single time he is on the slate. Specifically, we are going to look for right-handed hitters against Sears since that is where he is struggling this season.

So far this year, Sears has allowed a .492 SLG, 4.66 xFIP, 2.42 HR/9, 59.1% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate to righties. All 13 of the home runs Sears has allowed this season have come via right-handed hitters. This continuously puts opposing righties in a spot for some power, and that will lead us to Andrew McCutchen tonight.

This season, McCutchen comes in with a 119 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .236 ISO, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 44.2% fly-ball rate. McCutchen isn't wasting chances at the plate, and he is elevating the ball a ton, which puts him in a great spot against a pitcher who clearly struggles with that.

As usual, I'm adding McCutchen To Record an RBI (+135).

Alek Manoah Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

It's been a tough year for Alek Manoah.

To put things lightly, Manoah simply doesn't have it this season. He has a 17.6% strikeout rate, 15.0% walk rate, 5.99 xFIP, 8.9% barrel rate, 8.5% swinging-strike rate, and 24.5% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). All of those are worse than last season and the worst of his career. Since the start of May, Manoah has been under this 4.5 mark in four of six starts.

Tonight, he takes on the always-dangerous Houston Astros, who come in with a 22.6% strikeout rate (11th-lowest in the league). They are not giving away free chances at the plate and now take on a pitcher who simply can't punch out hitters at the plate.

This is simply not the matchup for Manoah, who is having the worst year of his career.

Nick Castellanos To Record an RBI (+135)​

With a 5.01 implied run total, we want to target the Philadelphia Phillies for some player props tonight.

Whenever a team has a high scoring expectation, it's generally a good spot to find some favorable props. That scoring expectation is due to them facing Joey Wentz, who comes in allowing a .399 wOBA, .564 SLG, 4.81 xFIP, 2.25 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters.

While we're not looking for a drive into deep left field by Nick Castellanos, he certainly has that potential tonight. We just want a simple RBI, which he should be able to find since he comes in rocking a 132 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .182 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season.

The Phillies are going to score some runs tonight, and Castellanos is likely to be involved with that.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+300)​

It's not if the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to hit home runs tonight, it's how many?

That's because they have an elite matchup, and it leads to them carrying a 6.01 implied run total, which is the second-highest on the slate. They are going up against Luke Weaver, who might be the worst pitcher on the slate. Add in the fact we have great hitting weather in an elite hitter's park, and it's a powder keg waiting to be lit.

Weaver comes in allowing a .408 wOBA, .604 SLG, 2.42 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 42.0% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters -- a mouth-watering stat line to see. It puts him in a very tough spot against an always-dangerous Dodgers lineup, and it should lead to plenty of scoring.

We turn to the elite Mookie Betts, who comes in with a 139 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .253 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. We're two months into the MLB season, and this might be my favorite matchup of the year. As always, I'm adding Betts To Record an RBI (+120).

Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)​

Logan Gilbert is coming off a rough start but is still a great pitcher.

Gilbert's last outing against the New York Yankees is one to forget, but it's merely a blip on the radar for his overall season. Gilbert comes in with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 3.17 xFIP, 11.5% swinging-strike rate, and 28.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He has hit the over on this 5.5 prop in 9 of his 11 starts this season. He brings a strong level of consistency to the table and is worth backing tonight.

At face value, the matchup against the San Diego Padres seems to be a tough one, but it's also filled with potential strikeouts. Yes, the Padres have power, but they also come in with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-highest in the league. I like Gilbert to bounce back today and rack up some strikeouts.

Eddie Rosario To Record an RBI (+150)​

Eddie Rosario is on fire right now and getting a player prop for the Atlanta Braves' offense is never a bad idea.

The Braves have a 5.47 implied run total and are always capable of reaching that in the blink of an eye. They have power up and down their lineup, and recently, Rosario has been the one showing that off. He has a six-game hitting streak in the works and has notched three home runs in that time. He doing that with an 85 wRC+, .302 wOBA, .201 ISO, .287 BABIP, 38.6% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

This puts him in a great spot versus Carlos Carrasco, who comes in with a 5.54 xFIP, 12.9% strikeout rate, 14.5% walk rate, and .302 SLG versus left-handed hitters. Carrasco isn't a pitcher we need to fear, and with Rosario having great odds tonight, this is a clear play to be excited about.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Wed props

Elly De La Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+500)​

The hype is real for Elly De La Cruz.

De La Cruz is one of the top prospects in the MLB and made his debut last night and didn't disappoint. While he ended with just one hit, it was a thunderous double that clocked in with a game-high 112.0 mph exit velocity. That was his calling card throughout the minors, and with one of the best hitter's parks in the league waiting for him, we should see plenty of offensive production from him.

Essentially, the +500 number for his home run is very high, and I don't anticipate it staying there moving forward. I want to jump on board now, and we can always reassess things further down the line.

The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.91 implied run total and are set to take on Noah Syndergaard, who is worth attacking every time he is on the mound. This season, Thor has allowed a .368 wOBA, .536 SLG, 5.03 xFIP, 2.03 HR/9, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 32.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

De La Cruz has elite numbers from his time in the minors this season with a .335 ISO, .437 wOBA, and 152 wRC+. It's his time to shine. Of course, I have to also add De La Cruz To Record an RBI (+105).

Christian Walker To Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)​

Christian Walker has been borderline elite this season, and not enough people are talking about it.

Walker is crushing the ball this year and is staring down a great matchup to continue that trend tonight. The Arizona Diamondbacks are rocking a 4.97 implied run total, and with the offensive production we've seen from them this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them nearly double that.

They are taking on Patrick Corbin, who allows a .359 wOBA, .494 SLG, 4.43 xFIP, 1.78 HR/9, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 19.0% HR/FB ratio. None of that is good for Corbin, and it has really been that way for a few seasons. He struggles versus righty power hitters, and this is the spot to jump in that matchup.

Walker comes in with a 171 wRC+, .429 wOBA, .396 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Whew, buddy! Those are some juicy numbers to have in this type of matchup and has me excited for Walker tonight.

LaMonte Wade Jr. To Record an RBI (+115)​

A plus money player prop at Coors Field? Sign me up!

Coors Field is the best hitter's park in the league, and anytime we can get a simple RBI prop at plus money, I'm going to take it. The San Francisco Giants have a slate-high 6.29 implied run total against the Colorado Rockies in a game with an 11.0 over/under. Surprise, surprise. A game at Coors Field is expected to see a lot of scoring.

We turn to LaMonte Wade Jr, who is crushing righties this season to the tune of a 169 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .205 ISO, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate. That puts him in a spot to be productive on a nightly basis, especially when he is at Coors Field.

The Rockies will have Connor Seabold on the mound, who comes in allowing a .356 wOBA, ..478 SLG, .304 BABIP, .5.29 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, and 45.8% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting while at Coors, and it puts the Giants in a great spot to produce tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

Thursday

Aaron Civale Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)​

With a tougher matchup, under 4.5 strikeouts for Aaron Civale is the spot to look.

A matchup against the Boston Red Sox doesn't put Civale in a favorable spot for a lot of strikeouts, and we want to side with the under tonight. The Red Sox come in with a 20.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. On top of that, they have a .170 ISO (12th) and 103 wRC+ (9th), presenting an offense that has power, too.

When it comes to Civale, he isn't a high-strikeout pitcher to begin with. He comes in with a 17.1% strikeout rate, 7.9% swinging-strike rate, and 28.8% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. For context, the league averages are a 22.8% strikeout rate, 11.0% swinging-strike rate, and 27.7% CSW rate.

Civale isn't racking up a ton of strikeouts, and with this type of matchup, the under is the clear play.

Shohei Ohtani To Record an RBI (+125)​

I'm a simple man. I see a Shohei Ohtani prop at plus money, I'm interested.

The Los Angeles Angels come in with a 4.75 implied run total, which is the second-highest on tonight's slate. Ohtani is elite across the board, and to record a single RBI is +125, it doesn't get more simple than this.

Ohtani comes in with a 99 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .193 ISO, 35.0% hard-contact rate, and 30.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. The Angels are expected to score some runs tonight, and I want to get exposure to that via this RBI prop.

He will be taking on Drew Smyly, who is allowing a 3.70 xFIP, .387 wOBA, .542 SLG, .419 BABIP, and 34.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Smyly is struggling versus lefty hitters this season, and with Ohtani on the other side, I'll grab the RBI prop tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Fri

Royce Lewis To Hit a Home Run (+440)​

The Minnesota Twins have a 4.11 implied run total tonight, but that might not be high enough.

A favorable matchup could help the Twins push past that implied total, and some of that scoring could come via the long ball. They are up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who will have Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Whether it's this season or the last, Kikuchi struggles with home runs, and that's where we want to attack him.

This season, Kikuchi allows a .372 wOBA, .530 SLG, 4.36 xFIP, 2.54 HR/9, 43.0% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting and puts the opposing lineup in a great spot.

We turn to Royce Lewis, who is an interesting young player for the Twins with some upside. Last season, Lewis made his MLB debut but played only 12 games before an ACL injury. He missed the start of this season but returned to the lineup a few weeks ago and has just eight games played this season. Long story short, he has a very small sample size over two years.

However, in this time, he has racked up a 154 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .167 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. It's a small sample but I'm hopeful -- he isn't the Twins number two prospect for nothing. As usual, I'm also adding on Lewis To Record an RBI (+170).

Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)​

Yu Darvish is a good pitcher, but tonight's not a great matchup.

Darvish is rocking a 26.4% strikeout rate, 11.1% swinging-strike rate, and 30.2% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Those are good numbers! He's been doing this for many years but tonight is not the time we should be seeing it.

He's at Coors Field, presenting the toughest possible hitting environment for a pitcher. Coors Field has the largest negative impact on strikeouts of any park in the league.

Not to mention the fact the Rockies have a 19.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers while at home this season, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. They don't strike out a ton and can always run a pitcher out of the game early by scoring runs.

Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)​

The Atlanta Braves have a juicy 5.43 implied run total tonight, and we want to grab some player props from their offense.

That total is due to them taking on Josiah Gray, a pitcher we should be attacking essentially every time he is on the mound. This season, Gray has a 5.64 xFIP, 20.3% strikeout rate, 16.2% walk rate, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and .301 SLG to left-handed hitters. Gray just isn't a good pitcher -- that's the best way to put it.

The Braves' lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and we are looking at Matt Olson. This year, Olson is crushing righties to the tune of a 152 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .317 ISO, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate. The Braves are expected to plate plenty of runs tonight and getting exposure to this lineup is always a good idea.

 

[MAGAking1]

4 for Monday

Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+300)/
Josh Jung To Hit a Home Run (+350)​

The Texas Rangers are in a great spot for some offense tonight, and we should see it coming via the long ball.

Texas' 5.16 implied run total is the second-highest on the slate, and they are a great spot to look for some player props. They are going up against Tyler Anderson, a pitcher we should be excited to attack whenever he is on the mound.

This season, Anderson allows a .372 wOBA, .509 SLG, 6.16 xFIP, 1.23 HR/9, and 49.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. This is the split we want to be targeting against Anderson.

This leads us to both Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung, two righties in a great spot tonight. We'll start with Garcia, who comes in with a 144 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .217 ISO, 36.4% fly-ball rate, and 38.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Next, Jung comes in with a big 172 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .317 ISO, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 53.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

This is truly an excellent matchup for both of them so I'm adding Garcia To Record an RBI (+105) and Jung To Record an RBI (+120).

Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)​

While the Oakland Athletics have picked up a few wins in a row, they are still a great team to pick on via pitching props.

That leads us to over 5.5 strikeouts for Zach Eflin of the Tampa Bay Rays. Eflin comes in with a solid 25.7% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate, 10.8% swinging-strike rate, and 30.4% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. He's been super solid across the board, and that has resulted in Eflin racking up over 5.5 strikeouts in three of his last five starts.

In those three starts, Eflin pushed his single-game strikeout rate to 33.3% or higher in each outing. He has a high ceiling to reach for, and this matchup against the Athletics should help put that on display. Oakland comes in with a 25.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.

Josh Lowe To Record an RBI (+115)​

From a Rays pitcher to a Tampa Bay hitter.

The Rays have an elite offense, and getting a simple RBI prop at plus money is about as straightforward as it gets. Tonight, they have a 5.14 implied run total, and with a few plus-money RBI props to choose from, I'm turning to Josh Lowe.

Lowe will be up against James Kaprielian, who comes in allowing a .430 wOBA, .600 SLG, 7.07 xFIP, 2.84 HR/9, .290 BABIP, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. That's about as bad as it gets, and with Lowe hitting in the heart of the Rays' lineup, he should have plenty of chances tonight.

Lowe is rocking a 151 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .251 ISO, .344 BABIP, and 39.4% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season. There's a lot to love about this matchup, and it should lead to plenty of runs for the Rays.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Tue props

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+420)​

When it comes to players with power upside, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is always near the top of the list.

Right from the jump, the +420 odds for Vladdy tonight are awesome. This is often a hitter we see around +300 or +320 for a home run, so I'm jumping at the chance to take him at a longer number. There's some nice hitting weather in Baltimore tonight, making this a great spot to target.

The Orioles will have Dean Kremer on the mound, a pitcher who has struggled versus righty hitters this season. To this point in the year, Kremer has allowed a .451 SLG, 4.36 xFIP, 1.45 HR/9, 39.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.2% hard-contact rate to righties. This should set things up nicely for several hitters on the Toronto Blue Jays, with Vladdy leading the way.

This year, Guerrero comes in with a 121 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .187 ISO, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. All nine of his home runs have come via right-handed pitchers this season, making this the split to attack. Of course, I'm also adding Guerrero To Record an RBI (+110),

Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)​

With a great matchup, over 4.5 strikeouts for Tanner Bibee is the spot I'm looking.

Bibee has been an exciting development for the Cleveland Guardians this season and can continue that tonight versus the San Diego Padres. While the Padres have some power in their lineup, they also have a ton of swings and misses.

With a 23.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the Padres are holding down the eighth-worst mark in the league. The lack of discipline at the plate makes them a rather favorable lineup to attack, and Bibee should be able to jump on that tonight.

This season, Bibee has a 23.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging-strike rate, which has allowed him to go over this 4.5 mark in four of his eight starts. In the four starts he went over 4.5 strikeouts, he was able to pump his strikeout rate up to 26.1% or higher in all of them, including two outings at 34.8% and 42.9%.

Long story short, Bibee has a nice ceiling to reach for, and this matchup should help him show that off.

Freddie Freeman To Record 2+ Hits (+170)​

If Lance Lynn is on the mound, we simply take hitting props against him.

That's where we are in the 2023 MLB season, and it's very straightforward when we have this opportunity every week. Lynn is having a rough go at things, specifically when it comes to dealing with left-handed hitters. Lynn is allowing a .467 wOBA, .702 SLG, 4.76 xFIP, 3.48 HR/9, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 42.7% hard-contact rate to lefties.

Those are among the worst numbers on the slate, and with Freddie Freeman on the other side, we know exactly where we need to look. Freeman comes in with a 154 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .174 ISO, .390 BABIP, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

I prefer Freeman for 2+ hits at +170 tonight since I want to shoot for that plus money upside. Just for the sake of comparison, Freeman To Record 2+ Total Bases is -120. The props are closely correlated, and while 2+ Total Bases is easier to achieve, I'm going for the +170 tonight.