MLB prop bets ======Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 for mon

Hunter Renfroe To Hit a Home Run (+285)​

The Los Angeles Angels have one of the best matchups on the slate, and we should see them flex their offense tonight.

With a 5.75 implied run total, the Angels top the slate against the Oakland Athletics, who will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound. To put things plainly, Waldichuk is not a good pitcher, and the righties from the Angels should have a field day today.

This season, Waldichuk is allowing a .454 wOBA, .653 SLG, 5.73 xFIP, 3.24 HR/9, 10.8% walk rate, and 40.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. These are arguably the worst numbers on the slate, and the Angels cruising past their implied run total wouldn't be a surprise.

On the squad, we can turn to Hunter Renfroe, who comes in with a big 289 wRC+, .587 wOBA, .333 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. The power is front and center with Renfroe, and hitting in the middle of the Angels' lineup will put him in a spot to succeed.

As always, I'm adding Renfroe To Record an RBI (-115).

Austin Riley To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)​

The Atlanta Braves are struggling right now but have a good matchup to get back on track.

A four-game losing streak is not something we often see from the Brave, but their offense has plenty of potential against Edward Cabrera tonight.

Cabrera has been up and down from the minor leagues to the MLB since 2021 for the Miami Marlins, so let's look at his career numbers. Over that time, Cabrera has allowed a .355 wOBA, .433 SLG, 4.64 xFIP, 15.1% walk rate, 1.71 HR/9, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

With numbers like those, we should see a decent output from the Braves, and that starts with Austin Riley. If we look back to last season, Riley was elite across the board with a 125 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .227 ISO, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Riley is hitless over his last two games, and with this type of matchup, I'm expecting him to bounce back and find his way on base.

Jhony Brito Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)​

Finally, I'm going with under 4.5 strikeouts for New York Yankees pitcher Jhony Brito.

This prop has a bit of juice, but there's nothing that indicates Brito will be flying past this total. This is Brito's first season in the MLB, and we only have a 15.0-inning sample size to work with. It's very small but in that time, he has posted a 17.2% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, 5.16 xFIP, and 10.1% swinging-strike rate.

It hasn't been the easiest start to an MLB career, and his numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence that put him in a spot to hit over 4.5 strikeouts. We also have to note his pitch count, which has been all over the place in his four starts. A total of 76, 92, 34, and 84 pitches in his four outings is concerning to bet the over.

The Yankees don't appear ready to let him go deep into games and at signs of trouble -- due to a high walk rate -- they pull him out early. This should lead to a short leash on Brito, limiting his chances to rack up enough strikeouts tonight.

 

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3 Tue props to consider

MLB player prop bets: Tuesday, April 25​

Adley Rutschman, over 1.5 total bases (+130)​

Rutschman has cooled off a bit after his torrid start to the 2023 season, but Tuesday night should be the spot for him to get back on track. The Boston Red Sox send Corey Kluber to the mound, and this isn’t the Klubot of old — the former Cy Young Award winner has gotten torched to the tune of an 8.50 ERA so far this year. More specifically, lefties have been Kluber’s Kryptonite, with an OPS allowed that’s nearly 500 points higher (1.130) than his mark against right-handed batters (.670).


Rutschman is a switch hitter, but he much prefers hitting against righties. And most importantly for our purposes, all of his power comes from the left side of the plate, producing five of his six extra-base hits this season (and three of his four homers). Rutschman has already taken Kluber deep once in his young career, and we like him to pick up at least one extra-base knock on Tuesday.

Nico Hoerner, over 0.5 stolen bases (+190)​

Stolen base props can be a bit treacherous, namely because they’re reliant on so many factors outside of a player’s control. But Hoerner is about as good a bet as you’ll find, for a number of reasons.


First, he should be living on first base on Tuesday. San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell has a WHIP of 1.889 so far this year, while Hoerner is getting on base at a .400 clip — a rate that climbs all the way to .480 against southpaws. Second, once Hoerner reaches, he’s been running wild; the Chicago Cubs give just about everyone the green light so far this season, and Hoerner has taken full advantage with nine swipes (while being caught just twice).


Finally, the Padres have been among baseball’s worst at slowing down opposing running games — starting catcher Austin Nola has a caught-stealing rate of just eight percent — and Snell, despite being a lefty, has been one of their most egregious offenders. If Hoerner gets on, he should be running at will.

Luke Weaver, over 2.5 earned runs (-140)​

Weaver has struggled mightily amid injuries in recent years, with a 5.58 ERA from 2020-2022. The Cincinnati Reds righty was touched up for four earned runs in his first outing of 2023 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and now he has to face a Texas Rangers lineup that ranks fifth in baseball in OPS against right-handed pitching. Oh, and the game will be played at Great American Ballpark, among the most extreme offense-friendly environments in the league.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Wed

MLB player prop bets: Wednesday, April 26​

Ronald Acuna Jr., over 0.5 stolen bases (+165)​

This is lower than you’ll see most odds for stolen-base props, but there are very good reasons that make the juice still worth the squeeze. Sandy Alcantara will be going for the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, and while that seems at first glance like a scary proposition, Acuna has owned the reigning NL Cy Young winner over his career — posting a .455 OBP with six walks in 33 plate appearances.


So we know that Acuna is a very good bet to get on base, and once he does, he’s among the best bets in all of baseball to start running. The outfielder leads the Majors in steals with 13, while only being caught twice. Alcantara has allowed a whopping 27 steals against him since the start of last year, suggesting that he wasn’t particularly adept at holding runners at bay even before the new pickoff rules came into effect.

Paul Goldschmidt, over 1.5 total bases (+100)​

Seemingly the entire St. Louis Cardinals offense has been in a funk of late, but Goldschmidt has kept on trucking, with four hits over his last three starts and a solid .835 OPS on the season. He’ll get to face off against San Francisco Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani on Wednesday, who the reigning NL MVP has absolutely owned over the course of his career: Goldschmidt is 14-for-27 against the righty (.519), with two homers and five doubles. With the Cards desperately needing a win, look for Goldy to come out swinging.

MacKenzie Gore, over 2.5 walks (-115)​

Gore has cleared this mark comfortably in three of his four starts, with a whopping 14 walks so far on the season. Now the lefty will go up against a New York Mets offense that’s drawn the second-most free passes in all of baseball and has the second-highest walk rate at 10.9%. The Washington Nationals have been letting Gore, a key part of their rebuild, run his pitch count consistently up to and over 100, meaning he’ll have plenty of chances to work deep into the game — and rack up the walks.

 

[MAGAking1]

Ill try this little parlay

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Thur

Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+400)​

This home run prop is rather straightforward for a few different reasons, so let's jump in.

First off, the +400 number for Pete Alonso's home run prop is way too high. Alonso has the second-most (10) home runs in the MLB to start the season, is one of the best power hitters in the league, and it's at +400? Sign me up 10 times out of 10.

Speaking of Alonso's power, he's got plenty of it with a .231 ISO, 103 wRC+, .316 wOBA, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 26.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. He's been showing this type of power for multiple years now and we know the potential he has on a nightly basis.

He will be up against Trevor Williams, who allowed a .345 SLG, 0.96 HR/9, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 9.8% HR/FB ratio last season versus right-handed hitters. The league average for HR/FB ratio last season versus right-handed hitters was 11.8% along with a 37.0% fly-ball rate. Williams allowed more fly balls but fewer of them went for home runs. That rate isn't sustainable and he is going to see some regression.

As usual, I have to add on Alonso To Record an RBI (+100).

Adley Rutschman To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)​

The Baltimore Orioles have a solid 4.28 implied run total tonight and can easily exceed that versus the Detroit Tigers.

Joey Wentz will be on the mound for the Tigers, a pitcher with just 49.1 innings pitched at the MLB level between this season and last. Over that time, he has allowed a .404 SLG, .315 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 0.98 HR/9, 10.6% walk rate, and 52.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. There's truly nothing about his profile that indicates he is a pitcher we need to worry about on the mound.

We turn to Adley Rutschman, who hits near the top of the lineup for the Orioles and will have plenty of chances at the dish to get some hits. He comes in with a 141 wRC+, .373 wOBA, 39.3% fly-ball rate, low 14.3% strikeout rate, and .088 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season. Is he lacking power? Yes. But that doesn't really matter since he is so disciplined at the plate and not wasting chances, giving himself the opportunity to put the ball in play and rack up hits.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Fri

Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+430)​

Max Muncy leads the MLB in home runs, and his prop is sitting way too high at +430 tonight.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are carrying a 4.75 implied run total tonight, set to take on Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals. Muncy has been away from the team for a few days due to the birth of a child and is expected to return tonight, so we have the always-fun baby narrative going, as well.

Muncy has 11 home runs to lead all of MLB right now, and this line being up at +430 is simply way too high. He comes in with a 210 wRC+, .486 wOBA, .490 ISO, 46.7% fly-ball rate, and 46.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. I'm salivating at those numbers, and he truly has the power to take any pitcher deep.

Flaherty hasn't looked good this year versus lefties, allowing a .521 SLG, .388 wOBA, 5.21 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate to them. I legitimately love this matchup, and it could be my favorite home run prop of the year so far.

As always, I need to tack on Muncy To Record an RBI (+125), which also comes at plus money.

Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+126)​

Let's go to a pitcher prop tonight, which starts with under 4.5 strikeouts for Clarke Schmidt.

While Schmidt is coming off an eight-strikeout performance in his most recent start, that is likely his ceiling -- and not something we will see replicated every start. His 26.1% strikeout rate on the season is certainly solid, but it's by no means a consistent rate for him. In that last start, his strikeout rate was up at 36.4%, but in two other starts this season, it was at 16.7% and 15.8%. The consistency is simply not there for Schmidt yet.

He also isn't going super deep into games and has been over 80 pitches in just one of his five starts. If he can't get deeper into games, his ability to rack up strikeouts is always going to be limited.

When it comes to his matchup against the Texas Rangers, it's nothing to write home about. This season, the Rangers come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (19th in the league). They are rather disciplined at the plate, and it doesn't set up to be a great matchup, either.

Mike Trout To Record an RBI (+120)​

One of the best hitters in the league with a plus-money prop? Sign me up.

That hitter would be Mike Trout, who is a mere +120 to record an RBI tonight in Milwaukee. Trout has just one RBI over his last five games, which is extremely surprising considering the Los Angeles Angels have scored 38 runs in the last five games. He's too good of a hitter to be kept off the score sheet this long, and with a matchup against Wade Miley, I'm taking this prop every time at this price.

Miley comes in with a .333 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.10 HR/9, 46.0% fly-ball rate, 36.0% hard-contact rate, and 15.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He's simply not that good of a pitcher, and if he isn't going to be punching hitters out at the plate, there should be plenty of runners on base for Trout to knock in.

Trout is carrying a 143 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .185 ISO, and a 31.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. The Angels have a 4.21 implied run total tonight and should be able to plate plenty of runs against Miley.

 

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[MAGAking1]

3 props for Mon

Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+330)​

With a big 10.0-run over/under, we should see plenty of runs when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox.

There are bad pitchers on the mound, a great park for hitters, and a bit of wind blowing out to left field. It's basically everything we could possibly want, and we are going to start the week, hopefully, on a high note.

Corey Kluber is off to a rough start this season and comes in allowing a .500 SLG, .320 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 2.53 HR/9, and 58.8% fly-ball rater versus right-handed hitters. Woof. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting when going up against a lineup that has a ton of power.

You could look to someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+285), but I'm shooting for a bit longer odds.

We are turning to Matt Chapman, who is crushing it right now with a 186 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .282 ISO, 49.0% fly-ball rate, and 47.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Chapman also sits in the 99th percentile or 100th percentile in all of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant.

When Chapman hits the ball, it's lucky the laces are still attached when it lands. Of course, I have to add Chapman To Record an RBI (+105).

Tony Gonsolin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)​

While unders aren't the most exciting, it's the right play when it comes to Tony Gonsolin.

Gonsolin started the season on the injured list with an ankle injury and made his first start of the season last week. In that start, he threw a total of 65 pitches, which means he's likely going to be around 75 to 80 total pitches tonight. Generally, we see pitchers increase their pitch count by 10 to 15 pitches per start until they are fully stretched out.

This means Gonsolin won't be going super deep into the game, which limits his chances to pick up strikeouts.

Next, we can look back to last season -- when he posted a very modest 23.9% strikeout rate, 12.3% swinging-strike rate, and 28.7% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). For comparison's sake, the league averages last season were a 22.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% swinging-strike rate, and 27.5% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%).

Gonsolin is just slightly better than the league average, so he's not some dominant strike-out pitcher on the mound.

All of this should lead to under 4.5 strikeouts tonight.

Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+115)​

A straightforward prop at plus money? Sign me up.

Yordan Alvarez is truly one of the best hitters in the entire league, and we are getting his RBI prop at plus money tonight. The Houston Astros have a 4.80 implied run total, so they are expected to put up a good amount of runs, and we want to capture that via this player prop.

Alvarez comes in with a 146 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .260 ISO, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and 41.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He legitimately checks off every single box that we could possibly want, and he hits in the middle of an always dangerous lineup.

He will be up against Ross Stripling, who allows a .405 wOBA, .435 SLG, 4.35 xFIP, and 36.8% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. There's nothing suggesting we need to be worried about Stripling, and getting Alvarez at plus money to drive in a run is too good to pass up.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Joey Gallo To Hit a Home Run (+360)​

The Minnesota Twins have a sizable 4.94 implied run total and a great matchup for some power tonight.

To this point in the season, the Chicago White Sox home stadium of Guaranteed Rate Field is the best park in the league for home runs. It's just slightly better than Coors Field, so when we have a favorable pitching matchup we have to jump on it. Not only is the stadium great for home runs, but there is also 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field, presenting a clear boost for hitters.

All of this is wonderful to see, and we haven't even touched on Michael Kopech, who is on the mound for the White Sox. To say it hasn't been the best start for Kopech would be putting things lightly. He comes allowing a .369 wOBA, .538 SLG, 4.72 xFIP, 2.51 HR/9, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 44.1% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season.

Yikes. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting with this type of wind blowing out tonight.

We turn to Joey Gallo, who is rocking a 199 wRC+, .455 wOBA, .500 ISO, 78.6% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Gallo has always been known for his power, and he is truly showing it this season with his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate all in the 97th percentile or higher, per Baseball Savant.

Of course, I have to add Gallo To Record an RBI (+145).

Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Hunter Brown is on the mound for the Houston Astros, and he has a great matchup against the San Francisco Giants.

Brown is technically in his rookie season after pitching only 20.1 innings last season, and we've seen some encouraging signs from him over this time. Since the start of last season, he has had a 27.0% strikeout rate, 3.28 xFIP, 4.8% barrel rate, 11.0% swinging-strike rate, and 30.0% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He's a good pitcher and has clear upside of being ace-level material.

He's shown that by racking up seven-plus strikeouts in three of his five starts this season and could certainly continue that tonight. The Giants come in with a 26.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the highest rate in the league. This is an elite matchup for Brown, who should have a very long leash. He's tossed at least 93 pitches in all five of his starts this season.

It should also be noted that Astros' starting pitcher, Luis Garcia, left last night's game after only eight pitches. That means the Astros' bullpen saw heavy work, which could indicate Brown needs to pile up the innings tonight even if he runs into some trouble.

Kris Bryant To Record an RBI (+120)​

A game at Coors Field and a plus-money RBI prop? Sign me up!

The Colorado Rockies are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers, and we have a juicy 11.0 over/under in a fantastic hitting environment. Kris Bryant normally hits in the top portion of the Rockies' lineup, and he's coming in at +120? I'll take this bet 10 times out of 10 considering the Rockies' implied run total tonight (4.98).

Freddy Peralta will be on the mound for the Brewers and enters with a .300 SLG, 3.78 xFIP, .351 BABIP, and a 42.9% flyball rate allowed versus right-handed hitters.

Bryant comes in with a 99 wRC+ and.344 wOBA in this split, but he has a lower 20.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Is this the 100% ideal matchup for Bryant? No, but the hitting environment is too good with these odds needing just a simple RBI.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for wed

Randal Grichuk To Hit a Home Run (+320)​

The Colorado Rockies are at home, and the scoring expectation is always high at Coors Field. With a 5.88 implied run total, the Rockies are forecasted to plate plenty of runs, and we want to capture that via some player props.

We'll be starting with Randal Grichuk, who recently made his season debut after starting the year on the injured list.

With that said, we'll take a look at his numbers from last season -- when he posted a 141 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .285 ISO, 37.9% fly-ball rate, and 41.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Love every bit of that, and it puts him in a great spot for a homer in most matchups, especially ones at Coors Field.

He will be up against Eric Lauer, who allows a .391 wOBA, .540 SLG, 4.95 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 41.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. This does not set up to be an easy matchup for Lauer, and I'm going to be all over the Rockies tonight.

Of course, we need to tack on Grichuk To Record an RBI (+100), as well.

Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Miles Mikolas isn't known as a strikeout pitcher, and he has a tougher matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight.

On the season, Mikolas has a 19.3% strikeout rate, which is right in line with the rate he posted last season (19.0%) along with his career average (18.1%). On top of that, he has a low 8.1% swinging-strike rate, which is well below this year's league average of 11.1%. He's not a dominant pitcher on the mound, and it gives us the chance to fade him tonight.

The Angels come in with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league. This is just a league-average matchup for a pitcher who doesn't really rack up strikeouts to begin with.

We also see the Angels carrying a .165 ISO (12th), 39.6% fly-ball rate (5th), and 31.9% hard-contact rate (14th). They're a dangerous offense that can push pitchers out of the game early, leading to unders on strikeout props.

Matt Chapman To Record an RBI (+115)​

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.01 implied total, and it's time for them to get back on track tonight.

They have a favorable matchup against Nick Pivetta, a pitcher we should certainly be looking to attack when he's on the bump. Fenway Park is one of the best hitter's parks in the league, so it's no surprise to see the Blue Jays with a high run expectation for tonight.

When it comes to Pivetta, he is struggling versus right-handed hitters to the tune of a .339 wOBA, .449 SLG, 5.20 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 45.9% hard-contact rate. None of that is good for him as the Blue Jays normally roll out a very right-handed dominant lineup.

We turn to Matt Chapman, who is scorching right-handed pitchers this season with a 176 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .253 ISO, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 45.6% hard-contact rate. I really like this RBI prop, and I love the Blue Jays to score plenty of runs tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Mon

Jarred Kelenic To Hit a Home Run (+430)​

The Seattle Mariners have a solid matchup against Jon Gray, which presents them with some home-run potential tonight.

A 4.10 implied run total isn't massive for the Mariners, but I love their potential to exceed that mark versus Gray. So far this season, Gray has allowed a .411 wOBA, .559 SLG, 2.45 HR/9, 6.37 xFIP, 35.8% fly-ball rate, and 34.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting when looking at some of the power options on the other side.

We turn to Jarred Kelenic, who is in the midst of a resurgent season after struggling last year at the dish. He's crushing the ball this season with a 145 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .258 ISO, 39.7% hard-contact rate, and 31.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. We also see Kelenic in the top 92nd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate, per BaseballSavant.

He's got the tools to get it done and I'm adding Kelenic To Record an RBI (+165).

Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Zac Gallen is a stud, and I'm not sure why his strikeout prop is only 6.5 tonight.

I absolutely love this prop for Gallen. I love this matchup, and I love his overall skill. This season, Gallen is rocking a 35.2% strikeout rate, 3.1% walk rate, 2.22 xFIP, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, and 32.0% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He's elite across the board this season as the clear ace for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season.

His matchup against the Miami Marlins is a favorable one since they come in with a 24.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league.

Gallen failed to hit this mark in his previous start but crossed it in the four starts prior, including three starts up at 11, 11, and 12 strikeouts. With that said, a little sprinkle of Gallen 8+ Strikeouts (+196) is worth a shot tonight.

Gleyber Torres To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)​

The New York Yankees have a 4.89 implied run total tonight and are in a spot to get their offense going.

JP Sears will be on the mound for the Oakland Athletics and with the struggles he's shown versus right-handed hitters this season, it's a great spot for Gleyber Torres.

To this point in the year, Sears is allowing a .484 SLG, .325 wOBA, 4.24 xFIP, 2.36 HR/9, 62.5% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. That flyball rate could be really tough for him when entering a great hitter's park such as Yankee Stadium.

Torres is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 150 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .269 ISO, and 50.0% fly-ball rate. He's hot at the plate right now with hits in 7 of his last 10 games and can certainly keep that trend going tonight with this favorable matchup.

 

[MAGAking1]

Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+390)
Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+520)​

The Atlanta Braves are rocking a slate-high 5.31 implied run total and are always capable of pushing past that quickly with the power in their offense.

It's been the same story for a few seasons when it comes to the Braves' offense; they have a ton of power, and seeing multiple home runs every night shouldn't be a surprise. That should be on full display tonight with a matchup against Nick Pivetta on tap, so let's look at some home run props.

When it comes to Pivetta, he is struggling against both lefties and righties this season, so it doesn't matter who he is facing. Against righties, he is allowing a .418 SLG, 4.88 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and a 39.2% hard-contact rate. Against lefties, he is allowing a .588 SLG, 3.90 xFIP, 2.77 HR/9, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and a 41.2% hard-contact rate.

We'll start with Sean Murphy, who comes in with a 167 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .338 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Murphy has been great in righty versus righty matchups this season with six of his nine home runs coming against them.

Next up, we have Ozzie Albies, who has a 68 wRC+, .275 wOBA, .205 ISO, 35.7% fly-ball rate, and 25.7% hard-contact rate. His stats at first glance don't look great, but he has the ISO for power, and five of his nine homers have come off of right-handed pitchers this season. The game-to-game consistency might not be there for Albies, but the power certainly is.

It's a great matchup for their offense, and we should see plenty of runs on the board tonight. Of course, I'm adding Murphy To Record an RBI (+110) and Albies To Record an RBI (+150).

Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)​

Betting unders on strikeouts isn't always exciting, but it's often the right play.

That's what we have tonight with Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has a tougher matchup against the Chicago Cubs. At one point in time, Flaherty was an ace-level pitcher, but a set of injuries has somewhat derailed his career trajectory.

He comes into tonight with a modest 23.4% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate, 4.95 xFIP, and 11.7% swinging-strike rate. None of that is truly threatening on the mound, and we've seen that on display for most of this season where he has recorded fewer than six strikeouts in four of his seven starts.

When it comes to the Cubs' lineup, they are rather disciplined at the plate with a 21.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (23rd in the league). This is not a high-strikeout lineup, and with a pitcher who is clearly struggling on the mound, this is clear for the under tonight.

Will Smith To Record an RBI (+120)​

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4.89 implied run total tonight and a clear-cut matchup against Eric Lauer.

This is about as straightforward of a matchup as you can imagine tonight, and I'm not thinking twice about it. Will Smith wasn't in the Dodgers' lineup yesterday and should be back in there tonight.

This season, Lauer is allowing a .388 wOBA, .525 SLG, 5.09 xFIP, 10.5% walk rate, 1.82 HR/9, 46.8% fly-ball rate, and 41.6% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. It hasn't been a great start to the season for Lauer, and I doubt things will be getting better after a matchup against the Dodgers' offense.

Smith is rocking a 104 wRC+, .325 wOBA, 0.00% strikeout rate, 42.9 fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's going to be hitting in the middle of the Dodgers' lineup and is primed to knock in some runs.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Wednesday

MLB player prop bets: Wednesday, May 10​

Clayton Kershaw, under 1.5 earned runs (-110)​

Sure, this line doesn’t offer a ton of margin for error. But Kershaw is about as safe a bet as they come these days, with zero or one run allowed in three of his last four starts, and he gets an absolutely ideal matchup on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. It’s hard to overstate just how bad the Brewers have been against left-handed pitching this year: They rank dead last by a very comfortable margin in both K rate (30.7%, a full two percent higher than the next worst team) and wRC+ (64, a full eight points lower than the next worst team). Kershaw’s slider has long made him death against lefties in particular, and that’s continued this year, with a .182 batting average allowed. Anything can happen in baseball, but it’s hard to see Kershaw allowing multiple runs to this team in this spot.

Mookie Betts, over 1.5 total bases (+100)​

Why don’t we just go ahead and stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers for our next favorite prop. Betts has been on a heater lately, hitting safely in 10 of his last 11 games with a 1.016 OPS — including three doubles and four homers — over that span. The outfielder has owned lefties all year, and he’s owned the lefty he’ll be facing on Wednesday night, Wade Miley, for his entire career, with nine hits in 16 at-bats including four doubles and a dinger. It’s an ideal spot for Betts, and batting leadoff makes it likely he’ll see an extra at-bat to help us hit this over.

Pablo Lopez, over 6.5 strikeouts (-110)​

The San Diego Padres have disappointed a bit on offense so far this year, especially against righties — with a .687 OPS and a 25.4% strikeout rate that ranks in the bottom five in all of baseball. (Both of those numbers have held about the same since Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return.) That doesn’t bode well against Lopez, as the Minnesota Twins ace is currently running a bonkers 32.4% K rate against right-handed batters and has fanned at least seven batters in all but one of his starts this year. Rotation-mate Louie Varland just struck out six Friars in his start on Tuesday, so the superior Lopez should have no trouble hitting this number.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Thur

MLB player prop bets: Thursday, May 11​

Kodai Senga, over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)​

Senga has cleared this number in four of his six starts so far this season, and now he gets to face a Cincinnati Reds crew that should be playing its getaway-day lineup — and currently sits among the bottom 10 in baseball in K rate and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Senga’s electric stuff has never been in question — his famed “ghost fork” carries a 55.8% whiff rate on the year — and he should work deep enough into this game to have plenty of opportunities for strikeouts.


(A line for Senga’s walks prop had yet to be released as of this morning, but if it comes in at 2.5 or 3.5 I’d also recommend hammering that — he’s walked at least four batters in his last four starts and carries one of the league’s worst walk rates into Thursday’s start.)

Vinnie Pasquantino, over 1.5 total bases (+105)​

Pasquantino has been a bright spot for a suddenly surging(ish) Kansas City Royals lineup, combining big power and a patient approach at the plate to a .922 OPS — including a .936 mark against righties, with six of his seven homers. His opponent today, Chicago White Sox right-hander Mike Clevinger, has had no answer for lefty batters this year, with a .902 OPS allowed that’s nearly 150 points higher than his mark against righties. Clevinger is largely a two-pitch pitcher, ahis slider isn’t really an option without the platoon advantage, which should allow Pasquantino to tee off today.

Bailey Ober, over 15.5 outs recorded (-105)​

We’ll continue to take advantage of props involving the San Diego Padres until lines start reflecting reality rather than how starry their names look on a lineup card. We cashed the over on Pablo Lopez’s strikeouts yesterday, and while today’s starter, righty Bailey Ober, is more of a finesse pitcher, he’s a good bet to pitch deep into Thursday’s game.


Despite all those big names, the Friars sit just 21st in baseball in wRC+ against right-handers this season, with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. Ober has been great since being recalled from Triple-A in April, with a 0.98 ERA in three starts — while going at least 5.2 innings in every one of those outings. He’s been particularly dominant against righties, with a .111 batting average allowed, and he should have no problem getting into the sixth today

 

[MAGAking1]

locations.

Josh Jung To Hit a Home Run (+390)​

The Texas Rangers have a 4.80 implied total against the Oakland Athletics in a matchup that could feature plenty of scoring.

The Athletics are bad. This is not breaking news in any way, but we need to remind ourselves of that every day and look to jump on it via the betting market. Oakland will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound tonight, and he is a pitcher who is struggling this season.

So far this year, Waldichuk has allowed a .436 wOBA, .633 SLG, 3.23 HR/9, 5.64 xFIP, and 46.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are legitimately some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's 13-game slate, and it presents the Rangers with plenty of offensive potential.

Josh Jung is absolutely crushing lefties this season with a 219 wRC+, .487 wOBA, .441 ISO, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 56.0% hard-contact rate. I love everything about his hitting profile for this matchup, and he is in a great spot for success. As always, I'm adding Jung To Record an RBI (+110).

Michael Kopech Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)​

When it comes to a pitcher prop tonight, I'm going with under 4.5 strikeouts for Michael Kopech.

Kopech hasn't been anything special this season and is now facing the Houston Astros, who have a 4.84 implied total. It doesn't set up to be the best matchup for Kopech, and it should lead to under 4.5 strikeouts.

This season, Kopech comes in with a 21.2% strikeout rate, 12.9% walk rate, 2.87 HR/9, 5.53 xFIP, 47.2% fly-ball rate, and 39.4% hard-contact rate. Every single one of those stats is worse than the league average for pitchers. He allows more runners on base for free, strikes out fewer hitters, and allows more home runs than the average hurler. It's a complete nightmare and inspires no confidence for his strikeout prop.

Kopech has been over this mark in just two of his last five starts while failing to go past the sixth inning in any start this season. If he isn't going deeper into the games, his chances to rack up strikeouts will be limited.

Plus, the Astros have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate (21.7%), so the under checks a lot of boxes.

Alex Verdugo To Record 2+ Hits (+130)​

The Boston Red Sox have a favorable matchup tonight and plenty of player props to consider.

The Sox are at home in Fenway Park, which is one of the best hitter's parks in the league, putting them in a great spot right from the jump. Adam Wainwright will be on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and, frankly, he's not a pitcher you need to worry about.

He's made only one start this season. so let's look back to last year, when he had a low 16.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters along with a 4.74 xFIP, .366 SLG, and 10.0% walk rate. It's really a whole lot of nothing for Wainwright, who isn't much of a threat on the mound.

We turn to Alex Verdugo's player prop to record 2+ total hits at solid plus-money. To put things in comparison, his odds to record 2+ total bases is -120. The total base prop is the safer option since he could have one double and cash it, but I'd rather shoot for the plus money with the two hits.

Verdugo comes in with a 156 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .329 BABIP, .247 ISO, and low 12.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste chances at the plate, he puts the ball in play, and he picks up hits.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Mon

Jake Fraley To Hit a Home Run (+470)​

The Cincinnati Reds are visiting the Colorado Rockies, giving us the best hitter's park in the league as a backdrop tonight.

With a home run prop sitting up at +470, I have a ton of interest in Jake Fraley tonight. The Reds have a 5.63 implied run total and are set to take on Connor Seabold, a pitcher who has struggled since entering the MLB in 2021.

He has only 45.0 innings pitched since 2021 and in that time, he has allowed a .454 wOBA, .646 SLG, 6.71 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, and 52.9% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some really rough numbers to be sporting at Coors Field, and the Reds pushing past their implied run total tonight wouldn't be a surprise.

Fraley crushes right-handed pitchers this season to the tune of a 143 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .211 ISO, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 33.8% hard-contact rate. That type of power will certainly play at Coors Field, putting Fraley in a great spot. As usual, I'm adding Fraley To Record an RBI (+125).

Hunter Greene Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)​

Let's stick in that same Reds versus Rockies game but turn to a pitching prop.

That starts with under 5.5 strikeouts for Hunter Greene. There's no doubt that Greene has some serious gas on the mound with his 29.0% strikeout rate and 14.8% swinging-strike rate, but this just isn't the matchup or park factor to show that.

The Rockies come in with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is just 16th in the league. They are right at the league average, which really isn't an overwhelmingly favorable matchup for Greene. That strikeout rate drops to 21.3% while at home versus right-handed pitchers (22nd in the league).

It's no surprise to see the Rockies strike out less often at home due to the favorable hitting factors, which can often lead to pitchers getting pulled early. Greene has plenty of strikeout potential; it's just not going to happen tonight.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)​

In what could be my favorite player prop of the day, we turn to Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres.

With a 5.25 implied run total, the Padres are expected to put up some runs against Brad Keller, who is seriously struggling this season. To this point in the year, Keller has allowed a .347 wOBA, .348 SLG, 5.82 xFIP, 19.3% walk rate, and 18.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters.

There's nothing about his pitching profile that would suggest he is a pitcher we need to shy away from, and with an elite hitter such as Bogaerts on the other side, we want to actively seek out some props.

Bogaerts is truly solid in a righty versus righty matchup with a 145 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .196 ISO, 18.5% strikeout rate, and .320 BABIP. He's not wasting chances at the plate and puts the ball in play to get on base. It's as simple as that tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for Tue

Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+390)​

Jose Ramirez is one of the most consistent hitters in the league, and he has an elite matchup tonight.

The Cleveland Guardians have a 4.48 implied run total tonight and are set to take on Lance Lynn, who is having a very rough season. To this point in the year, Lynn is allowing a .700 SLG, .466 wOBA, 4.00 HR/9, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 50.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Lefty hitters clearly have the drop on Lynn this season; 8 of the 11 home runs he's allowed have come in this split.

Before we get to Ramirez, let's take note of the park factors tonight. The Chicago White Sox are at home and Guaranteed Rate Field is currently the second-best park for home runs this season. We also see 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field tonight, making this spot essentially picture-perfect for homers tonight.

Ramirez comes in with a 149 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .156 ISO, and 47.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. It's also fair to say Ramirez has been underperforming this season with only four home runs to his name. However, taking a look at his Rolling Expected wOBA and Rolling Expected xSLG over his last 100 plate appearances, he's well above the league average but is lacking the results on the stat sheet.

The matchup is too good, and he's an elite hitter, making this a clear home run target tonight. As usual, I'm adding Ramirez To Record an RBI (+120).

Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Next, we turn to under 4.5 strikeouts for Domingo German of the New York Yankees.

German has been solid this season, but he's not jumping off the page, and this is a very tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. German is carrying a 26.3% strikeout rate, 15.3% swinging-strike rate, and 30.9% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%).

Despite those strong numbers, this matchup doesn't set up to be a spot where he can show them off. The Blue Jays have a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. That rate drops to 19.9%, when they are at home in this split -- as we see them tonight. They are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate and aren't giving away free chances.

German has also failed to hit 90 pitches in seven of his eight starts this season. Not getting deep into the game will limit his chances to rack up strikeouts in what is already a tough matchup.

Jarred Kelenic To Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)​

With a 5.49 implied run total, the Seattle Mariners are a team to target for player props tonight.

This is a rather straightforward situation for the Mariners, which should make them a go-to option for many tonight. First off, Fenway Park is one of the best hitter's parks in the league and a massive positive park shift for the Mariners. Next, we have some wind blowing out to right-center field -- another boost for hitters.

The Boston Red Sox will have Nick Pivetta on the mound, who comes in with a .396 wOBA, .583 SLG, 4.32 xFIP, 2.93 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. That is essentially exactly what we want to see when targeting pitchers for player props.

Jarred Kelenic has been solid this year with a 140 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .257 ISO, 40.0% hard-contact rate, and .359 BABIP versus right-handed pitchers.

I love this spot for Kelenic and the Mariners to keep the offense rolling.

 

[MAGAking1]

A couple props

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays​

Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+100)​

Jose Berrios has pitched pretty well in his last in last six starts and, for the season as a whole, he’s been at his best in Toronto, where he sports a 1.53 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He’s also been experimenting with his pitch-mix in 2023, even recently beginning to throw some right-on-right change-ups. Still, at the end of the day, Berrios will go as far as his breaking pitches take him. His slurve is his best offering and it is its most effective against RHBs. That’s the main reason why righties have managed just a .297 slugging percentage off the former All-Star. Lefties are a different story. They’re hitting .300 with a .522 slugging.


It’s that handedness disparity where the value lies in the prop market. I’d suggest attacking with the left-handed bats in the Yankees’ lineup — particularly Rizzo. The 33-year-old is having a phenomenal season, registering a 152 wRC+ across his first 187 plate appearances, which includes a notable .230 ISO when facing RHPs. The history between these two veterans is also worth factoring in. The duo have met several times in recent years in divisional play, with Rizzo having gained the upper hand. The first baseman is 9-for-22 off Berrios with an eye-popping 1.186 OPS. Needless to say, he sees him well.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals​

Adam Wainwright Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+120)​

Not to sound too much like an old man yelling at a cloud, but I miss the days when teams were slow to designate their terrible, washed pitchers. This season alone we’ve already had to say goodbye to automatic run machines like Jose Urena, Luis Cessa and Madison Bumgarner. That’s right. The front offices of the Reds and Rockies are even coherent enough to make these decisions. That’s a bad sign for gas cans everywhere. I bring this up only to remind people to truly take advantage of this final Wainwright season, particularly with no Yadier Molina behind the plate.


Wainwright has looked cooked since Spring Training. His fastball velocity is career-low 87.3 mph. He surrendered nine earned runs over 13.0 innings in his rehab starts in Double-A and Triple-A. He’s pitched to a 7.20 ERA and a 5.49 xERA since debuting at the MLB level earlier this month. There’s just nothing to like about the 41-year-old is bringing to the table. In both starts Wainwright has made, he’s allowed at least seven opponent hits. It’s sort of a perfect storm. He’s not walking anyone, he’s not striking out anyone — his zone contact rate is 93.0% — so there’s simply been an abundance of batted ball events. With the Dodgers sitting tops in the NL in wOBA versus RHPs (.343), I’d expect hits to appear in bunches once again on Thursday evening.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Friday props

Corey Seager To Hit Home Run (+420)​

Corey Seager is back and ready to get the power going tonight.

Seager returned the other night from a hamstring injury, and despite not picking up a hit in three at-bats, there are some positives. In those three at-bats, he had a 66.7% fly-ball rate and a 66.7% hard-contact rate. Yes, it's the smallest sample size you could think of, but showing he has the power in his legs is a very encouraging sign.

For the entire season, Seager has a 169 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .207 ISO, 56.5% hard-contact rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. The power has been there all season and should continue to be front-and-center for Seager, especially while at home. The Rangers' ballpark is showing to be the fourth-best for home runs this season, which is always an added bonus.

He will be up against Karl Kauffmann, who will be making his MLB debut for the Colorado Rockies. Through 37.0 innings at Triple-A this season, Kauffmann has a very modest 14.9% strikeout rate, 1.22 HR/9, .383 BABIP, and 5.78 xFIP. There's not much to worry about when it comes to Kauffman; he's really just a run-of-the-mill pitcher the Rockies need for a start.

In short, I'm not worried about this pitcher, and I trust Seager. As usual, I'm also adding Seager To Record an RBI (+120).

Sandy Alcantara Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)​

The reigning NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara, has a juicy matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.

We get one of the best pitchers in the league with a prop at even money, so let's jump in. Alcantara is carrying a 22.9% strikeout rate, 13.7% swinging-strike rate, and 3.88 xFIP. He's great at what he does and has been putting that on full display with his two most recent games, where he posted a 28.1% strikeout rate in each of them.

He has shown this type of upside throughout the season, racking up nine strikeouts in three of his last five starts. That level of production is on the table tonight against the San Francisco Giants, who come in with a 24.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.

With the recent form Alcantara has shown, this favorable matchup should allow him to cruise to the over.

Yordan Alvarez To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

Whenever we get an elite hitter at near even money, I'm taking it 10 times out of 10.

Yordan Alvarez is a perennial MVP candidate, and his props on a nightly basis offer a level of consistency that can be tough to find in a sport like baseball. With the Houston Astros carrying a slate-high 5.66 implied run total, they should have plenty of players on the base paths and give plenty of chances for Alvarez at the plate.

Alvarez comes in with a 141 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .240 ISO, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Despite this being a lefty-lefty matchup, there are no worries for Alvarez because he eventually gets to face the Oakland Athletics' bullpen, which is among the worst in the league.

He will be taking on starter Ken Waldichuk, who has allowed a .377 wOBA, .500 SLG, 6.51 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 44.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. This matchup is too good for Alvarez at only -110 odds.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 ideas for Monday

Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates​

The Pick: Rangers team total over 4.5 runs -120​

Taking the over on the Rangers team total has been a cash cow. They enter this game averaging a ridiculous 6.4 runs per game, the highest in the league. They’ve gone over 4.5 runs in five straight games, averaging 8.6 per game over that span. Now they’ll go up against the Pirates, who allow an average of 4.8 runs per game in Pittsburgh.


Taking the mound for the Pirates will be Luis Oritz. This will only be the third start of the season for him but he hasn’t gotten off to a good start. Facing two light hitting offenses in the Tigers and Rockies, Ortiz allowed nine runs (five earned) on 14 hits with five walks and four strikeouts. His lack of command could really come back to bite him in this game. With men on base, the Rangers are hitting .309 with a .382 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rangers make if six straight games going over 4.5 runs.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics​

The Pick: Mariners team total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -125​

This essentially is a way to play Kyle Muller earned runs allowed but at a discount. He very rarely goes over five innings of work. If you were to play the earned run prop, it’s currently at -145. Muller has made nine starts and has gone at least 5.1 innings in only two of them. When he’s out of the game pitching less than 5.1 innings, he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his nine starts. Muller has also been completely picked apart on the road, where he sports a 10.31 ERA with a .436 wOBA, a 7.00 FIP and a 1.9 HR/9.


Muller also gets worse the deeper into games he goes (which is never that deep). He’s at his “best” the first time through the order with a 4.26 ERA and a .339 wOBA. It falls off dramatically after that with a 5.40 ERA and a .385 wOBA the second time through. On the real rare occasion he makes it a third time through, his ERA is 24.16, having allowed 17 runs on 21 hits in 6.1 innings. Going over 2.5 runs with only a line of -125 feels like a situation I don’t want to miss out on.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers​

The Pick: Matt Olson over 1.5 bases +105​

With the way he’s been swinging the bat lately, over 1.5 bases for Olson at +105 caught my attention. Olson has gone over this number in four of his last five games, while also hitting a double in three straight (+330 to hit one tonight). A lot of his power has come at home, where he’s hit six of his 10 doubles and six of his 13 home runs.


The Dodgers will be starting rookie Gavin Stone, who’ll be making only his second start. Stone went through the Dodgers minor league system quickly despite displaying some shaky command. Through 35.2 innings at Triple-A, he had a 4.7 BB/9. I bring this up because Olson has been at his best when starting ahead of the count after 1-0. Olson has a .403 wOBA and a .306 ISO after starting ahead in the count. I like taking the prop at plus money tonight and expect this will move before the game starts.