MLB prop bets ======Master Thread

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Here we gooooooooo


Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+300)​

The Minnesota Twins start the 2023 season in a great spot, and Byron Buxton has a solid matchup for a home run.

One of the main things we always want to be checking for MLB betting is the weather. The Twins are visiting the Kansas City Royals, where we see 20 MPH winds blowing out towards left field. This is a massive boost for hitters, and it puts Buxton in a spot to start the season off with a homer.

If we look back to last season, Buxton finished with a 126 wRC+, .287 ISO, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are some elite power numbers and will consistently put him in a spot for home runs.

Today, he is taking on Zack Greinke, who allowed 1.13 HR/9 to righties last season, along with a 43.5% fly-ball rate and a 31.9% hard-contact rate. Ideally, the hard-contact rate would be a bit higher, but with that fly-ball rate allowed combined with the massive 20 MPH wind blowing out, it puts Buxton in a great spot.

The final note I'll add is that I always like to tack on the RBI prop for the same player because if he hits a home run, he will also have an RBI -- Buxton RBI prop (-110).

Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+320)​

Next up, we're turning to one of the best power hitters in the league, Austin Riley.

The Atlanta Braves have a 4.49 implied run total and are set to take on Patrick Corbin, which presents a favorable matchup for several hitters. Corbin struggled last season versus righties to the tune of 1.79 HR/9 allowed, a 35.0% fly-ball rate, a 41.1% hard-contact rate, and a .388 wOBA. Corbin is bad versus righty hitters, and we will be attacking him all season.

When it comes to Riley, he had elite power numbers versus lefties last season with a 196 wRC+, .342 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 42.6% hard-contact rate. Those are some of the best numbers we can find on any slate, not to mention he has a super soft matchup versus Corbin.

Of course, I'll look to add Riley RBI (+105), too.

Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)​

When it comes to strikeouts, we're starting the season with Shane McClanahan.

McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in the league last season with a 30.3% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 2.60 xFIP, and 15.5% swinging-strike rate. He has absolute gas on the mound and can pile up strikeouts quickly in nearly any matchup. McClanahan posted 67 pitches in his final spring training start, which should put him at 80-plus pitches today.

He's going up against the Detroit Tigers, whose current active roster carried a 22.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers last season, which is the 10th-worst in the league. This matchup puts McClanahan to start the season off on the right foot and pile up the strikeouts versus a weak lineup.
 

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Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+300)​

The Cleveland Guardians have an interesting matchup against Robbie Ray that presents some power upside.

Right from the jump, it has to be noted that Ray is a good pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, but he's not without his faults. While he posted a 26.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters last season, he also allowed 1.66 HR/9, a 42.3% fly-ball rate, and a 35.2% hard-contact rate. He can be a bit of boom or bust on the mound, and we're certainly hoping for the latter.

When it comes to Jose Ramirez, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the league and has a good combination of power and solid betting odds tonight. If we look back to last season, Ramirez had a .178 ISO, 52.2% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

JRam has to power to take any pitcher deep, and with some of the issues Ray has shown, this is worth a shot. As always, I like to add Ramirez to Post an RBI (+130).

Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

In non-breaking news, Mookie Betts is an awesome hitter.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a solid 4.27 implied run total tonight, and if they are going to be scoring games, that means they are getting players on base. Betts hits at the top of the lineup for the Dodgers and will have plenty of chances at the plate to get on base.

Last season, Betts posted a 133 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .250 ISO, 16.6% strikeout rate, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Betts is elite across the board and should be able to put that on full display tonight against Merrill Kelly.

In 2022, Kelly had a very average 24.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, a 3.28 xFIP, and a 35.7% fly-ball rate. Kelly is just a normal pitcher; there's no other way to put it. He isn't overpowering on the mound, and Betts is simply a better hitter than Kelly is a pitcher.

Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-106)​

Finally, under 3.5 strikeouts for Kyle Freeland.

The San Diego Padres have a 4.27 implied run total tonight and shouldn't have an issue reaching that mark going up against Freeland tonight. When it's all said and done, Freeland just isn't a good pitcher. He's not necessarily a bad pitcher, either. He just doesn't strike out hitters. Last season, Freeland finished with a 17.1% strikeout rate, which was lower than the league average of 22.4%.

Last season, the Padres' current lineup had an 18.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which was the fourth-lowest in the league. They are very disciplined at the plate and won't be giving away free chances for Freeland to rack up strikeouts.
 

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3 props for Sat

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, April 1​


Ozzie Albies, O1.5 total bases (+115)​


After picking up two hits in the Atlanta Braves’ season-opening win over the Nationals, Albies gets a great matchup today against Washington starter Josiah Gray, who had a 5.02 ERA in 148 2/3 innings last season. While Gray only allowed one earned run in his two starts against the Braves last season, Albies is 3-for-7 in his career against Gray with a home run. He should build on his strong Opening Day performance today.


Steven Kwan, O1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120)​


Last night, Kwan recorded five RBIs against the Seattle Mariners, becoming the second hitter in Cleveland history to knock in at least five runs in one of the team’s first two games. While Kwan probably won’t drive five runs in tonight, he should have no problem reaching this figure against the Mariners.


Nick Lodolo, U7.5 strikeouts (-125)​


Lodolo had an electric rookie year in 2022 for the Cincinnati Reds, as he tallied 131 strikeouts in 103 1/3 innings. That said, he only cleared this line in seven of his 19 starts last year. The Pirates are a free-swinging team (Hunter Greene had eight strikeouts against them on Opening Day), but I’m back the Bucs to put the ball in play against Lodolo.
 

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Oneil Cruz To Hit a Run (+350)​

Oneil Cruz has massive power and a great matchup for a home run tonight.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 4.40 implied run total against the Boston Red Sox and have some great factors going in their favor tonight. Right from the jump, Fenway Park is a very favorable hitting environment and constantly puts hitters in a great spot. Next, we see 10-15 mph wind blowing out toward center field tonight. Wind is also a big boost for hitters, and add that to one of the best parks in the league, we could be in for some fireworks tonight.

The Sox will have Kutter Crawford on the mound tonight, a pitcher that struggled versus lefties last season, making him the ideal pitcher to attack. Last year, Crawford allowed a .600 SLG, .407 wOBA, 2.64 HR/9, 4.54 xFIP, 51.8% fly-ball rate, and 45.2% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on today's slate, and that means going directly to Oneil Cruz. Last season, Cruz had a 132 wRC+, .238 ISO, .358 wOBA, 39.9% hard-contact rate, and 35.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

As always, I'm looking to add Cruz to Record an RBI (+140).

Anthony Rizzo To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)​

The New York Yankees have a 4.47 implied run total at home set to take on the Philadelphia Phillies.

This is a very straightforward prop where we have a pitcher who struggles against left-handed hitters and a lefty hitter who is solid against right-handed pitchers. That pitcher would be Taijuan Walker, who allowed a .390 SLG, 4.14 xFIP, 1.02 HR/9, 37.2% fly-ball rate, and a low 21.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters last season.

Those aren't numbers you need to be worried about, and it puts Anthony Rizzo in a great spot for some production tonight. Last season, Rizzo carried a .342 wOBA, 125 wRC+, .235 ISO, 19.4% strikeout rate, and a big 50.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Rizzo hits in the middle of the Yankees' lineup and will generally be in great spots at the plate to get on base.

Freddie Freeman To Record an RBI (+135)​

Freddie Freeman is on pace for zero RBIs this season.

That's only because Freeman has yet to record an RBI this season. I know that's a bit silly, but we need to evaluate Freeman's matchup today at face value, and let me tell you -- it's a great one. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4.95 implied run total and could easily exceed that with Ryan Feltner on the mound for the Colorado Rockies.

Last year, Feltner allowed a .332 wOBA, .443 SLG, 4.67 xFIP, 1.45 HR/9, 19.1% strikeout rate, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.6% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Yikes. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting against the Dodgers lineup, and it should put Freeman in a spot to grab his first RBI of the year.

Last season, Freeman rocked a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .194 ISO, 11.6% strikeout rate, 39.6% hard-contact rate, and 35.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's the ideal matchup for Freeman, and it should lead to plenty of offense tonight.
 

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3 props for Tue...the winds in KC are ferocious


Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+280)​

It's time for Nolan Arenado to hit his first home run of the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals have a juicy 5.27 implied run total today at home and are set to face Dylan Dodd from the Atlanta Braves. Dodd is making his MLB debut, which means we are dealing with a lack of stats. However, we can look at some of his minor-league numbers to get a bit of an idea.

Last year, he pitched a total of 6.2 innings in Triple-A, which isn't much to take note of. He also pitched 46.1 innings in Double-A and 89.0 innings in A+ for the Braves last season. In Triple-A, he allowed a 66.7% fly-ball rate, albeit in a very small sample size. In Double-A, he allowed a 42.7% fly-ball rate. In A+, he allowed a 29.2% fly-ball rate.

Seeing the fly-ball rate increase as he moved higher up the minor league system isn't an encouraging sign for him. I say all this and haven't mentioned the fact we will see 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left field in St. Louis tonight.

What does this all mean? A pitcher is making his debut in less-than-ideal conditions versus a powerful Cardinals lineup. Simply put, I'm siding with the elite and experienced hitter in Arenado over a rookie pitcher.

Last season, Arenado had a 160 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .366 ISO, 61.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. As always, I'm looking to add Arenado To Record an RBI (-120).

Randy Arozarena To Record an RBI (+100)​

The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a hot start this season and have a favorable matchup to continue that tonight.

With a 5.01 implied run total, the Rays are expected to keep their offense going against Chad Kuhl. To put things simply, Kuhl struggled last season versus right-handed hitters to the tune of a .508 SLG, 4.57 xFIP, 1.55 HR/9, 39.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate. That puts any opposing offense in a good spot, which means the Rays should be piling up the runs.

We turn to Randy Arozarena, who finished last season with 115 wRC+, .322 wOBA, .167 ISO, and .416 SLG versus right-handed pitchers. Arozarena hits near the top of the lineup for the Rays and will have plenty of chances to drive in some runs against a weak pitcher.

Matt Chapman To Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)​

Finally, we turn to another big offense in the Toronto Blue Jays with a slate-high 5.54 implied run total tonight.

The offenses should be out in full force for several teams tonight, and the Blue Jays are always a team that can pile up the runs. We have another game with 20 mph winds blowing out to left field, too, which is always a benefit for hitters.

The Kansas City Royals will have Kris Bubic on the mound, a pitcher who presents a very favorable matchup for essentially all Blue Jays hitters. Last season, Bubic allowed a 4.24 xFIP, 1.05 HR/9, .436 SLG, and .346 wOBA to right handed-hitters.

The Blue Jays roll out a very right-handed lineup, and we could see the ball flying early and often given this favorable matchup. This is where Matt Chapman comes into the fold with a great prop on top of this great matchup.

Last season, Chapman had a 115 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .179 ISO, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Given the wind and the matchup, Chapman has one of the best chances to produce on tonight's slate.
 

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Wed props

Randy Arozarena To Hit a Home Run (+350)
Isaac Paredes To Hit a Home Run (+440)​

The Tampa Bay Rays are on fire and look to continue that today versus Patrick Corbin.

If there is one thing that remains a constant in baseball, it's that you target Corbin when he is on the mound. This is by no means a shocking development; the Rays rocking a slate-high 4.84 implied run total today. Corbin is simply not a good pitcher anymore, and he offers upside to every opposing lineup.

Last season, Corbin allowed a .388 wOBA, .526 SLG, 4.27 xFIP, 1.79 HR/9, 41.1% hard-contact rate, and 35.0% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. Combine those bad numbers with very warm weather and wind blowing out towards left field, and it creates an awesome hitting environment for the Rays.

Both Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes are in great spots to hit home runs today, and I can't decide between them, so I'm rolling with both.

Last season, Arozarena had a 164 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .242 ISO, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is basically the ideal profile to match against Corbin, putting Arozarena in an elite spot. Of course, I'm adding Arozarena To Record an RBI (-120).

For Paredes last season, he had a 142 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .286 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 23.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. That hard-contact rate is a bit lower than I'd like to see, but the raw power is still there for Paredes, and the matchup is too good to pass up. Add on Paredes To Record an RBI (+105).

Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+110)​

The Houston Astros have a 4.49 implied run total today and should be able to hit that to snap their slight losing streak.

The Detroit Tigers will have Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound today, and the hitters from the Astros are in a spot to get their offense going. Last season, ERod allowed a .393 wOBA, .507 SLG, 4.80 xFIP, 1.62 HR/9, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting with Houston's power on the other side.

That leads us to Yordan Alvarez, who is one of the true elite hitters in the MLB and is a threat for a big game in any matchup. Last season, Alvarez had a .424 wOBA, 183 wRC+, .265 ISO, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. There's not a bad thing you can say about Alvarez, and with him hitting in the middle of the Astros' lineup, he will have plenty of chances at the plate to drive in a run.
 

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Thur props

C.J. Cron To Hit a Home Run (+285)
Ryan McMahon To Hit a Home Run (+360)​

The Colorado Rockies have an elite matchup for some power versus Josiah Gray.

A game at Coors Field is always great for home run props and scoring, which means this is at the top of the list today. Josiah Gray struggles with opposing power hitters, making this the ideal matchup to target.

Last season, Gray allowed a .598 SLG, 3.38 HR/9, 61.8% fly-ball rate, and 30.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Versus righties, he allowed a.412 SLG, 1.60 HR/9, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and 29.6% hard-contact rate. We'd like to see the hard-contact numbers a bit higher to target, but with this type of hitter's park, I'm very willing to roll with this matchup.

For C.J. Cron, he ended last season with a 114 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .209 ISO, 41.1% fly-ball rate, and 31.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. As always, I'm adding Cron To Record an RBI (-120).

Ryan McMahon finished with a 105 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .197 ISO, 32.1% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. I'll add McMahon To Record an RBI (+110) here, too.

Daulton Varsho To Record an RBI (+110)​

The Toronto Blue Jays have a solid 4.65 implied run total tonight and are in a good spot for some offense.

They will be going up against Jordan Lyles, who allowed a .500 SLG, .365 wOBA, 4.55 xFIP, 1.75 HR/9, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 31.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters last season. Lyles is not a pitcher we need to be worried about, and the offensive potential from the Blue Jays is something we should be looking to capture via player props.

This is where we turn to Daulton Varsho, who finished last season with a 121 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .244 ISO, 46.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is among the ideal matchup for Varsho, who is hitting in the three-hole for the Blue Jays today, putting him in a great spot to drive in a run.
 

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3 props for the eve games

Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+320)​

When it comes to home runs tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be hitting them early and often.

That is because they are up against Madison Bumgarner, a pitcher we're going to be targeting whenever he is on the mound. Bumgarner struggled versus both lefties and righties last season, putting several of the Dodgers' hitters in play tonight. As of now, Will Smith doesn't have home run odds posted, but I'll have a ton of interest in his prop with his power potential.

Last season, Bumgarner allowed a .366 wOBA, .512 SLG, 4.79 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are among the worst numbers on the slate, and with the number of power righties the Dodgers can put into a lineup, it won't be a shock to see a few of them go deep tonight.

Mookie Betts is an elite hitter, and given how soft this matchup is, his home run odds (+320) are a bit too long, making this one of my favorites on the slate. Last year, Betts had a 174 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .301 ISO, 50.8% fly-ball rate, and 40.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. I legitimately can't say a bad thing about Mookie; he's simply elite across the board. As always, I'm also adding Betts To Record an RBI (+100).

Randy Arozarena To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)​

The Tampa Bay Rays are on fire to start the season and look to continue that versus the Oakland Athletics tonight.

Oakland will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound, an inexperienced pitcher who hasn't shown much upside. Waldichuk had only 34.2 innings pitched in the MLB last season, which is a small sample size, but that's what we have to work with.

In 2022, Waldichuk allowed a .382 wOBA, .549 SLG, 4.43 xFIP, 1.75 HR/9, 46.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those aren't good numbers no matter how you slice it, putting the Rays' righties in a great matchup.

We turn to Randy Arozarena, who ended last season with 164 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .242 ISO, 19.4% strikeout rate, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Arozarena is a consistent hitter in this split and can hit this prop with one swing of the bat.

Madison Bumgarner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+128)​

As noted above, Bumgarner is not a good pitcher.

Bumgarner started the season against the Dodgers last week and is facing them again tonight. Conventional baseball wisdom says that the hitters are in a favorable spot when seeing a pitcher for the second time in a short window. That points us to the under for Bumgarner's strikeout prop, not to mention that he just isn't good anymore.

Last season, he posted a 16.0% strikeout rate, which was the second-lowest rate of his career. The league-average strikeout rate last season was 22.4% for pitchers, showing Bumgarner is clearly beyond being simply average.

The Dodgers are rocking a 5.27 implied run total tonight, and with the overall power the Dodgers have in their lineup, they could run Bumgarner out of the game quickly.
 

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Stop the skid

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Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+280)​

The Seattle Mariners have a 4.60 implied run total tonight and have a favorable matchup to exceed that mark.

With decent hitting weather on tap for Wrigley Field tonight, the Mariners are in a spot to flex their offensive upside against Drew Smyly. If we look back to last season, Smyly allowed a .448 SLG, .324 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9, and 43.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. That fly-ball rate is immense and a slight bit of wind blowing out tonight could spell trouble for Smyly.

When it comes to Teoscar Hernandez, he crushed the ball last season versus left-handed pitchers to the tune of a 175 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .363 ISO, 45.3% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate. He's essentially checking off every box we could possibly want when it comes to identifying hitters who have good power upside in their matchup.

As always, I'm adding on Hernandez To Record an RBI (+105).

Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)​

The San Diego Padres are on the road to take on the New York Mets with two big-name pitchers on the mound.

Yu Darvish versus Max Scherzer is one of the best matchups of the night, but despite the star power, I'm going with Darvish under 5.5 strikeouts. Last season, Darvish was solid with a 25.6% strikeout rate, but it's not jumping off the page at you. He's a good strikeout pitcher, but not a great one.

When it comes to the Mets' lineup, they aren't giving away chances at the plate this season and are only striking out 18.1% of the time versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-lowest in the league. Darvish didn't look spectacular in his first start this season with just three strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks in five innings of work.

There's not much here that inspires a ton of confidence, and that has me going to the under tonight.

Kris Bryant To Record an RBI (+105)​

Finally, an RBI prop from Kris Bryant of the Colorado Rockies.

A game at Coors Field is always a great spot to look for some props because it's the league's best hitter's park, and the offensive expectation is always high. That is shown by the 11.5 over/under tonight, a mark that can be reached quickly with very favorable hitting conditions tonight.

Steven Matz will be on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he's not a pitcher we need to fear. Last season, Matz allowed a .434 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, 40.2% fly-ball rate, and .313 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Rockies have a 5.34 implied run total and are expected to put up some runs against Matz.

For Bryant, he only played 42 games last season due to injuries, which means should look back to 2021 for a better sample size. In 2021, he posted a 138 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .254 ISO, 45.8% fly-ball rate, and 40.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's hitting near the top of the lineup for a team at Coors Field, and we're getting a plus-money prop.
 

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Looking for some early production from Bichette and Vlad to Knock Eduardo out the game

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3 for Thur

Rowdy Tellez To Hit a Home Run (+400)​

The Milwaukee Brewers have a solid matchup against Nick Martinez, presenting them with some power potential.

Martinez will be on the mound for the San Diego Padres, and this is a matchup we should be focusing on tonight. In 2022, Martinez allowed a .401 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, 11.3% walk rate, and 37.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Those numbers don't pose any type of fear for the Brewers' lefties, and it puts them in a great spot.

We can turn to Rowdy Tellez, who ended last season with a 117 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .275 ISO, 45.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Tellez saw 31 of his 35 homers come against right-handed pitchers, so this is absolutely the matchup we want to be attacking tonight.

Vince Velasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+134)​

There are two things in play for Vince Velasquez tonight, and it's why I like under 3.5 strikeouts for him.

The first thing would be that Velasquez is simply not a good pitcher. Last season, he posted a 21.6% strikeout rate, which fell below the league average of 22.4%. He allowed 1.31 HR/9 last season compared to the league average of 1.09 HR/9.

Wait, there's more! He also allowed a whopping 48.9% fly-ball rate last season, which was noticeably higher than the league average of 37.2%. He's not a supreme strikeout pitcher, he allows too many fly balls, and those fly balls turn into home runs. This causes him to have a very short leash and be pulled from games early.

The other factor would be the St. Louis Cardinals have a powerful offense and don't strike out a ton. To start this season, they have a 19.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. They also have a 117 wRC+ and .160 ISO versus righties, both of which are in the top half of the league. All of this points to Velasquez having a short night on the mound.

Paul Goldschmidt To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)​

In a follow-up to Vince Velasquez not being a good pitcher, we can turn to Paul Goldschmidt, who is a great hitter.

To be a bit more specific about Velasquez against righties, he struggled in 2022 by allowing a 4.77 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, 18.5% strikeout rate, 48.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate. The Cardinals usually roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, putting Velasquez in a very tough spot tonight.

Last season versus right-handed pitchers, Goldschmidt posted a .154 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .225 ISO, 39.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.5% hard-contact rate.

He's elite across the board and with the Cardinals carrying a 5.16 implied run total tonight, we should see players on the bases all night.
 

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3 for Fri

Julio Rodriguez To Hit a Home Run (+310)​

We have a loaded 12-game slate with plenty of hitters to target, but one has my eye -- Julio Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is a rising star, and his home run prop at +310 is just a tad too high tonight given the power he's shown as well as the favorable matchup against Austin Gomber.

Last season, Gomber allowed a 1.75 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. He also surrendered a 4.15 xFIP, .534 SLG, .376 wOBA, 35.9% fly-ball rate, and 32.3% hard-contact rate in the split. He's checking off a lot of boxes we like to see when it comes to targeting pitchers for homers, which has me excited for this prop.

Versus lefties in 2022, JRod ended last season with a 142 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .200 ISO, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and 30.0% hard-contact rate. Given the matchup, it's no surprise the Seattle Mariners have a 4.71 implied run total tonight, a mark they could easily exceed.

As always, I'm looking to add Rodriguez To Record an RBI (+120).

James Kaprielian Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+116)​

Next up, under 3.5 strikeouts for James Kaprielian.

While unders aren't the most exciting thing, we're getting good value on a pitcher who, ultimately, isn't very good. Kaprielian does have 11 strikeouts in 9.2 innings pitched this season, but that is far too efficient for the type of pitcher he truly is.

If we look back at last season, he posted a 17.0% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The strikeout rate was lower than the league average, and the walk rate was higher than the league average. He also recorded a 9.5% swinging-strike rate, which was lower than the league average of 11.2%. He's simply not a very good pitcher, and he is overperforming to start this season.

The matchup against the New York Mets is a tough one since they strike out 18.4% of the time so far this season, which is the lowest rate in the league versus right-handed pitchers.

It's all about under 3.5 strikeouts tonight for Kaprielian.

Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

The Atlanta Braves have a 4.71 implied run total and some nice hitting weather in Kansas City.

Brady Singer is a young pitcher for the Royals, and while he has shown some promise, he's not at a level where we need to avoid him. Not to mention the fact the Braves' lineup is arguably the best in all of baseball, so it could be a short outing for Singer.

Last season, Singer allowed a .409 SLG, .316 wOBA, 1.43 HR/9, 43.8% hard-contact rate, and 36.0% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. The combination of that fly-ball rate, hard-contact rate, and the wind blowing out could spell disaster for the KC righty.

We turn to Matt Olson, who was elite across the board last season versus righties. He racked up a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .261 ISO, 43.4% hard-contact rate, and 42.9% fly-ball rate in the splt.

He's off to a hot start this season, and this matchup should only help him keep it going.
 

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Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+255)​

The Milwaukee Brewers have a great matchup today to get their offense rolling.

They are taking on Chris Flexen of the Seattle Mariners, presenting several of the Brewers' hitters with a favorable matchup. Last season, Flexen allowed a .345 wOBA, .479 SLG, 5.24 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 49.0% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

Adames was solid last season versus right-handed pitchers, sporting a 115 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .236 ISO, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.4% hard-contact rate in the split. This is truly a great matchup for Adames and the Brewers' offense, who have plenty of power to puts Flexen in a tough spot.

Loving this matchup overall, and I'm adding Adames To Record an RBI (-110).

Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)​

When it comes to strikeout props, I'm rolling with under 4.5 strikeouts for Merrill Kelly.

Simply put, Kelly isn't that good of a pitcher. He's just fine and can get the job done in the right matchup, but that doesn't appear to be the case tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals. Last season, Kelly had a 22.0% strikeout rate, which was just a touch lower than the league average of 22.4%. This season, he's at a 23.4% strikeout rate, putting him in line with what we've seen from him.

However, the big change this season is his walk rate. Last year, it was at 7.6%, which was actually lower than the league average of 8.2%. This season, his walk rate is up to 18.8%, which is a disaster. Yes, this comes from a small sample, but it doesn't seem like he has control over the strikezone to start the season.

I say all of this and haven't even mentioned that the Cardinals don't present an easy matchup for pitchers. The Cardinals have a 21.4% strikeout rate versus righties this season, which is the ninth-lowest. They are disciplined at the plate and don't give away free chances to pitchers.

Ronald Acuna To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)​

We get one of the best hitters in the league at nearly even money.

Ronald Acuna would be that hitter, and -115 odds for 2+ total bases is about as good as we're going to get. He has a matchup against Ryan Weathers, a pitcher we can look to target with right-handed hitters.

Weathers, a lefty, has been up and down for the San Diego Padres since 2019, so we'll look at his career numbers. In this time, he has allowed a .360 wOBA, .495 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.87 HR/9, 36.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

There's not much encouraging about that stat line, and with a strong Atlanta Braves lineup on the other side, it could be a quick outing for Weathers.

When it comes to Acuna, he had solid numbers last season versus lefties with a 102 wRC+, .317 wOBA, 37.5% hard-contact rate, and 31.3% fly-ball rate.
 

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Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+330)​

The Baltimore Orioles are rocking a 4.82 implied run total and have a great matchup for some offense tonight.

That implied run total is the highest of any team outside of Coors Field tonight, a good indication that we will see their offense on full display. They are going up against the Washington Nationals, who will have Josiah Gray on the mound, a pitcher we should be actively attacking when he is on the slate.

Last season, Gray allowed a .412 SLG, .300 wOBA, 1.60 HR/9, and 40.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. His numbers this season are in line with those, a good indication he will still struggle with power-hitting righties this year.

We turn to Ryan Mountcastle, who ended last season with a 109 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .179 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 34.5% hard-contact rate versus righties. Mountcastle hits in the heart of the lineup for the Orioles and should be in a spot where the Nats can't pitch around him, giving him good pitches to see.

As usual, I'm also adding Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+110).

Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+124)​

Jose Urquidy is a fine pitcher, and that's the best way to describe him.

There's really no other way to put things when it comes to Urquidy's game on the mound. He's an okay pitcher who doesn't do any one thing particularly well and isn't a pitcher we need to fear. A 20.0% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rake, and 46,8% medium-contact rate are about as average to below-average as you can possibly find. His 44.7% fly-ball rate is always a bit dangerous for him, but that just means a plus for opposing hitters.

Nothing about his pitching profile suggests that he is a big strikeout pitcher who can go out there and totally shut down a lineup. I'm simply not afraid of Urquidy on the mound, and neither should the Toronto Blue Jays.

They come in with a 21.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is 21st in the league. They are very disciplined at the plate, not to mention their 119 wRC+ (4th) and .160 ISO (13th) are both in the top half of the league versus righties.

The Blue Jays have plenty of power and can knock a pitcher out of the game quickly, leading to the under on his strikeout prop.

Aaron Judge To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

In what could be my favorite prop of the day: Aaron Judge to record 2+ total bases for the New York Yankees.

The Yankees have a solid 4.82 run total against the Los Angeles Angels, who will have Jose Suarez on the mound. Suarez is a southpaw who struggled versus righties last season by allowing a .420 SLG, .321 wOBA, 1.21 HR/9, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 30.7% hard-contact rate.

With Yankee Stadium already being a solid hitter's park and 10-15 mph winds blowing out tonight, the hitting environment is awesome to see runs pile up quickly.

If we look back to last season, Judge's MVP year was elite across the board with a 174 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .348 ISO, 39.8% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is an elite matchup, and Judge should be reaching base multiple times tonight.
 

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Nathaniel Lowe To Hit a Home Run (+520)​

The Texas Rangers have a juicy matchup for some power today.

They are on the road to take on the Kansas City Royals, where we see some of the best hitting weather of the day. It's 70 degrees with 19 MPH winds blowing out to left-center, presenting an awesome opportunity for the hitters today.

Brady Singer will be on the mound for the Royals, a young pitcher who struggled versus lefties last year -- allowing 1.43 HR/9, .409 SLG, 36.0% fly-ball rate, and 43.8% hard-contact rate in the split. A high fly-ball rate is always dangerous, and if we add in the massive amount of wind, it's a recipe for disaster.

When it comes to Nathaniel Lowe, he had solid numbers last season versus right-handed pitchers with a 133 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .183 ISO, 34.2% fly-ball rate, and 32.8% hard-contact rate. There's plenty of power around Lowe in the Rangers' lineup, and he should be in a spot to see good pitches.

As always, I'm adding Lowe To Record an RBI (+120).

Nolan Arenado To Record 2+ Total Hits (+160)​

When Madison Bumgarner is on the mound, we look to the righties he's facing.

That's the rule for this season, and we're going to stick with it. Bumgarner is not the pitcher he once was and showed it last year by surrendering a .512 SLG, .366 wOBA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are bad numbers across the board, and it gives opposing lineups a clear path to production when Bumgarner is on the bump.

We turn to Nolan Arenado, who was beyond elite last season versus left-handed pitchers with a 160 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .366 ISO, 61.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate. Those are video game-type numbers, and it puts Arenado in a great spot to pick up two knocks at the plate today.

Just for the sake of comparison, Arenado to record 2+ Total Bases sits at -165. The differential in pricing between two hits (+160) and two bases (-165) is huge. I'm shooting for the most upside, and that sits with Arenado getting two hits today.

Trevor Rogers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Trevor Rogers has a solid matchup for his strikeout prop today against the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants are off to a very rough start this season, and that is shown in their numbers versus left-handed pitchers. This season, the Giants have a 30.3% strikeout rate versus lefties, which is the fifth-worst in the league.

Rogers is off to a solid start with a 23.9% strikeout rate and 28.3% Called Plus Swinging-Strike Rate (CSW%), both of which are higher than the league average. Rogers has thrown more than 90 pitches in each of his last two starts and is fully stretched out, giving him a chance to go deep into the game and pick up strikeouts versus this San Fran lineup.
 

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Patrick Wisdom To Hit a Home Run (+330)​

With strong 15-20 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, we could see some easy home runs tonight.

Wrigley Field is particularly impacted by winds compared to other stadiums, providing a significant boost to hitters in this case. This presents us with a clear game to target for home runs, and that starts with Patrick Wisdom of the Chicago Cubs. This season, Wisdom is off to a blazing start with a 14.9% barrel per plate appearance rate, which is the seventh-highest in the entire league. He's got the power, and the wind is only going to help him.

On top of that barrel rate, he is boasting a 137 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .366 ISO, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's got power across the board, and with the Cubs rocking a 5.38 implied run total, it won't be a shock to see them flex the offense tonight.

He will be up against Michael Grove, a young pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers that doesn't have a lot of experience. Over the last two years, Grove has a total of 42.1 innings pitched in the MLB. It's not a large sample size but in that time, he has allowed a .403 SLG, 4.14 xFIP, 1.37 HR/9, and 39.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

This is a great spot for the Cubs' offense, and with the wind blowing, this game should feature plenty of scoring.

Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)​

When it comes to Sean Manaea, we side with the under on strikeouts tonight.

There are two main factors for this under, and they are very simple. Manaea isn't that good of a pitcher, and the New York Mets have a good offense.

Last year, Manaea posted a 23.2% strikeout rate, 12.0% swinging-strike rate, 3.96 xFIP, and 1.65 HR/9. All of those are essentially a hair better than the league average except for HR/9, where the league average was 1.09 HR/9 last year. He's simply not a dominant pitcher on the mound, and the matchup against the Mets isn't an easy one.

This season, the Mets have a 20.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-lowest in the league. They also sport a 101 wRC+ (14th) and .156 ISO (12th), which are both in the top half of the league.

Not to mention that Manaea isn't fully stretched out this season, too. In his three starts, he has pitched 37, 76, and 82 pitches. If he isn't going deep into the game, he won't have a chance to rack up a ton of strikeouts.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

Finally, one of the best hitters in the league to record 2+ total bases at nearly even money is one of my favorite bets to target.

That hitter would be Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres, who have a 4.99 implied run total against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks, a pitcher who has a total of 35.1 innings pitched in the MLB since being called up last season.

Over that time, he has allowed a 4.72 xFIP, 50.9% fly-ball rate, 38.6% hard-contact rate, and low 17.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters. Ultimately, he's nothing notable on the mound and is due for some regression based on his xFIP outperforming his ERA.

Bogaerts has been an elite hitter in the MLB for many seasons, and I will simply side with the experienced hitter over the unproven pitchers. This season, Bogaerts is rocking a 236 wRC+, .531 wOBA, .267 ISO, and low 11.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He isn't going to waste chances at the plate and will have plenty of opportunities to grab a few hits tonight.
 

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Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+390)​

The Texas Rangers have a juicy 4.62 implied run total tonight and a soft matchup to attack.

To put things nicely, the Oakland Athletics are struggling this year and don't have a good pitching staff. They will have JP Sears on the mound, who comes in with a limited sample size, between this season and last, when he was first called up. Over that time, he has allowed a .447 SLG, 4.59 xFIP, 1/66 HR/9, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

Those are rough numbers across the board, and with the Rangers announcing they will have the roof open at Globe Life Field, the hitting environment tonight will accentuate some of his issues with flyballs and home runs.

We turn to Adolis Garcia, who has plenty of power last season with a 107 wRC+, .203 ISO, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. His start this season could be better, but he's still in the 83rd percentile or higher in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.

As always, I'm adding Garcia To Record an RBI (+100) because if he hits a home run, he gets an RBI.

Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)​

With a favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals, going to over 5.5 strikeouts for Tyler Mahle is an easy choice.

I doubt I'm the first person to tell you this, but the Nationals are not a good team this year. Their lineup doesn't present a lot of danger, and we actually want to be actively targeting them when we can find a strikeout prop. That lies with Mahle tonight, who comes in with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 3.19 xFIP, 12.1% swinging-strike rate, and 30.2% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Mahle might not be elite, but he's super solid.

He's been over this mark in two of his three starts this season -- and over 90 pitches in each of his last two outings. Mahle is fully stretched out and should be able to get deep into the game with a weak Nationals lineup on the other side.

Trea Turner To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)​

As usual, whenever I can find a prop at near-even money for an elite hitter, I'm taking it.

That hitter would be Trea Turner of the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a slate-high 5.30 implied run total against the Colorado Rockies. Turner is really freaking good and is always picking up hits to get on base, which is why I love this prop at -105.

Last season, Turner had a low 18.5% strikeout rate, .350 wOBA, 128 wRC+, .342 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and a 35.7% fly-ball rate. He's never going to be a massive power hitter, but he doesn't chase pitches at the plate and puts the ball in play for base hits. It's everything we could possibly want.

When it comes to the pitcher for the Rockies, they will have Noah Davis on the mound. He has pitched one game this season for a total of 5.0 innings and made his MLB debut last season with a total of 1.0 innings pitched. Davis has a total of six innings pitched at the major league level.

There's nothing we can draw from this sample size, and I'm simply siding with a proven elite hitter tonight.
 

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