MLB prop bets ======Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 Wed props

Justin Turner To Hit a Home Run (+560)​

The Boston Red Sox have a great matchup tonight to flex their offense.

With a slate-high 5.56 implied run total, the Sox are going to be a popular team to target tonight for some player props. They have a soft matchup, they have good hitters, and that all leads to potential value with their player props. Add in a touch of wind blowing out to left field, and we're rocking with a great spot for offense.

They are taking on Austin Gomber, who comes in allowing a .397 wOBA, .564 SLG, 5.21 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 35.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He's getting crushed by righties, and this is the exact matchup we should be looking to target him tonight.

We turn to the veteran, Justin Turner, who is having a resurgent year versus lefties with a 168 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .275 ISO, 44.6% fly-ball rate, and 46.4% hard-contact rate. This is truly a juicy matchup, so I'm adding Turner To Record an RBI (+105).

Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-116)​

Taking an under can be tough, but it's the right spot most of the time.

Tonight, that leads us to under 8.5 strikeouts for Tyler Glasnow. The truth is Glasnow is an awesome pitcher. However, much like Transformers, there's more than meets the eye in this situation.

Yes, Glasnow has a 31.3% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging-strike rate, which are flat-out amazing. These numbers come from only three starts this season since he recently returned from an injury, but they are generally in line with his career numbers so we can trust them.

While the matchup is a great one against the Oakland Athletics, the main issue comes down to Glasnow's pitch count. In his three starts this season, Glasnow has totaled 83, 89, and 86 pitches. Those are very modest totals in the grand scheme of things, and ultimately, it limits his ability to get deeper into the games and rack up strikeouts.

If Glasnow was fully stretched out and able to go for 100-plus pitches, this would be a different conversation, but I'm going with under 8.5 strikeouts tonight.

Christian Walker To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)​

The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses in the league, and it's always a good idea to get some exposure to that lineup.

A 4.52 implied run total is a good indication we are going to see some scoring from the Diamondbacks, and we should look at some player props which reflect such.

We'll start with Christian Walker, who is crushing lefty pitchers this season and has a great spot to continue that trend. He comes in with a 150 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .333 ISO, 52.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus lefties. The power is very clear from Walker, who hits in the middle portion of the Diamondbacks' lineup. That should put him in a spot to see quality pitches.

He will be taking on Ranger Suarez, who isn't too much of a threat on the mound. He has a very modest 21.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, allowing a .389 BABIP, .495 SLG, and .369 wOBA. Suarez isn't some dominant ace on the mound, and with the way Walker has been hitting lefties this season, I'll take him in this matchup.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 bonus props for Wed

MLB player prop bets: Wednesday, June 14​

Clayton Kershaw, to record a win (-115)​

Another day, another bet taking the Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher to earn a win against the Chicago White Sox. I took this bet on Tuesday with Tony Gonsolin, and he earned his fourth win of the season as L.A. picked up a 5-1 win. Kershaw enters with a 9-4 record and a 2.95 ERA. He has earned a win in consecutive starts, and I think he makes it three in a row.

Yandy Diaz, under 1.5 hits (-230)​

Diaz has gone 0-for-7 over his last two games. He has a good matchup against Oakland Athletics starter Luis Medina, who enters with a 1-5 record and a 7.53 ERA. Diaz does tend to hit in bunches whenever he does tally a base knock. Over his last 20 games, he has a hit in 13 of them and two hits in eight of those 13. Still, Diaz has been struggling at the plate recently, and I think he will finish with fewer than two hits on Wednesday.

Ketel Marte, over 1.5 total bases (-110)​

Marte had an off day on Tuesday but went 3-for-5 with three runs scored on Monday. He is now hitting .280 on the year and has a good matchup against the lefty Ranger Suarez and the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. Marte enters a career 6-for-15 against Suarez with an RBI and a walk. He should finish with at least two total bases on Wednesday.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Friday props

Michael Harris To Hit a Home Run (+630)​

Another day, another time the Atlanta Braves lead the slate with a big implied run total (6.29).

The Braves have an amazing offense and could hit that implied run total in the blink of an eye on a nightly basis. Their hitters are consistently in good matchups, and tonight, that leads us to Michael Harris II. It's been an interesting season for Harris, who started off strong, hit a major slump, and is in the midst of rocketing his way out of that slump.

For the season, Harris has a 69 wRC+, .278 wOBA, .126 ISO, and 39.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are below-average numbers and nothing to get excited about. However, he was in a slump for a while and things have turned around quickly for him.

Since the start of June, Harris has a 149 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 54.8% hard-contact rate versus righties. It's night and day for Harris, who already has two homers this week. Harris has picked it up, and I'm rolling with the hot hitter.

He's going up against Dinelson Lamet, who comes in allowing a .491 wOBA, .720 SLG, 5.68 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, 41.0% fly-ball rate, and 46.2% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. This is a clear plus matchup for Harris, so I'm adding Harris To Record an RBI (+145).

Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)​

For a pitching prop tonight, over 5.5 strikeouts for Tanner Houck is the spot I'm looking.

Houck comes in with a 23.1% strikeout rate, 13.2% swinging-strike rate, and 30.7% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. All three are higher than the league average, but the latter two are bordering on elite territory. Frankly, his strikeout rate is a bit low considering these other stats, and we've begun to see his strikeout rate start to increase.

In three of his last four starts, Houck has posted single-game strikeout rates of 34.8%, 25.0%, and 27.3%. That is more in line with the strong swinging-strike rate and CSW rate he has this season. This is very encouraging. On top of that, Houck has passed this 5.5 mark in each of those three starts I previously mentioned.

Tonight, he is up against the New York Yankees, who come in with a 22.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. That jumps to 23.4% while on the road in this split. It's not a massive increase, but with a pitcher like Houck on the other side, his underlying stuff should help him in this spot.

Brandon Drury To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)​

Brandon Drury is back from his suspension and has a great matchup to get things back on track.

Drury is set to rejoin the Los Angeles Angels' lineup tonight. They come in with a 5.10 implied run total on the road against the Kansas City Royals, who will have Brady Singer on the mound.

Singer has a low 19.2% strikeout rate versus righties while mainly pitching to contact, but that's not going too well for him this season. He comes in allowing a .337 wOBA, .470 SLG, .315 BABIP, 1.26 HR/9, and 35.5% hard-contact rate to righties. In short, you shouldn't be worried about Singer.

Drury is having a very strong year versus righties with a 115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .239 ISO, .322 BABIP, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate in the split. He's checking all the boxes we want to see, and for even money, this is a great prop to target.

 

[Kaboom]

GL brotha

 

[MAGAking1]

a few props for Sat

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, June 17​

Mookie Betts and Will Smith, to record a hit (-105)​

The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperate for a win on Saturday after dropping a heartbreaking 13-inning affair in the series opener against the rival San Francisco Giants on Friday night. Giants lefty Alex Wood will be making his return from the IL; he’s been out with a back strain since May 31, when he was tagged for six runs on eight hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wood has struggled without the platoon advantage this year, allowing a .315/.411/.511 slash line to righties.


Both Betts (1.087 OPS against lefties) and Smith (1.068) have teed off on southpaws this year, and especially with Wood knocking some rust off after a three-week layoff, they’re both a good bet to notch at least one hit on Saturday night. They both know Wood well, too, batting a combined 13-for-33 against him (.393) in their careers.

Mitch Keller, over 6.5 strikeouts (-105)​

Keller struck out just a single batter against the Oakland A’s at the beginning of June, but other than that, he’s been among the most consistent K artists in the game: The former top prospect has fanned 10, 8, 8, 13, 8, 8, 8 and 7 hitters in his eight other starts since April 27. He’s also excelled on five days of rest rather than four, which he’ll have heading into his start on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers.


Milwaukee has the league’s second-highest strikeout rate against righties since the calendar flipped to June, most recently allowing Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober to strike out seven over six innings. Ober’s stuff (8.4 K/9) isn’t nearly as electric as Keller’s (10.4), and the Pirates ace should clear this number pretty easily.

Justin Steele, under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)​

This is less an indictment of Steele than it is a numbers game. The Chicago Cubs ace has been out since May 31, when he left his start against the Tampa Bay Rays with a forearm strain. He elected not to go out on a short rehab assignment, meaning that his start against the Baltimore Orioles will be his first time back on the mound in a competitive environment in almost three weeks. The team hasn’t put a hard and fast pitch limit on Steele, but it’s hard to imagine him being allowed to go much past 60 or so — especially given how important he is to the team’s future. With such little rope to work with, I’m betting against him reaching five strikeouts against an Orioles lineup that has the 12th-highest OPS in baseball against lefties this year.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Monday props

MLB player prop bets: Monday, June 19​

Matt McLain over 1.5 total bases (+115)​

McLain is one of the impressive young talents that have helped the Cincinnati Reds to an eight-game win streak as of Monday. The shortstop is hitting .324 on the season and has a four-game hitting streak. McLain will face off against southpaw Austin Gomber, who enters with a 4-6 record and a 7.29 ERA. McLain should be able to extend his hitting streak and tally two bases on Monday.

Merrill Kelly, over 6.5 strikeouts (+110)​

Kelly has been a reliable option for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. Zac Gallen still leads the team as their ace, but Kelly has developed into a solid No. 2 pitcher. He struck out seven his last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies. Kelly faced the Brew Crew in mid-April and struck out seven over six innings of work, and he should be able to do so again in a rematch on Monday.

Kerry Carpenter, over 0.5 hits (-250)​

Carpenter heads into Monday’s game against the Kansas City Royals with a .279 batting average. He and the Detroit Tigers will face off with K.C. starter Jordan Lyles, who enters with an 0-11 record and a 6.89 ERA. Carpenter enters 2-for-3 in his career against Lyles and is coming off a 3-for-4 game against the Minnesota Twins. Carpenter has a great chance to tally at least one hit on Monday.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for tue

MLB player prop bets: Tuesday, June 20th​

Nathan Eovaldi to record a win (+115)​

Eovaldi will take the mound for the 15th time this season and enter with a 9-3 record and a 2.59 ERA. He hasn’t faced the Chicago White Sox this season, but the Rangers head into this game riding a three-game win streak, including a victory in the series opener. Chicago will send Dylan Cease to the mound, but if the Texas lineup can give Eovaldi support early, he should record his 10th win of the year.

Ian Happ over 0.5 hits (-195)​

The Chicago Cubs won the series opener on Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unfortunately, Happ went hitless in the game and has now gone hitless in his last three games. So why do I think he gets a hit on Tuesday? First off, he is a switch hitter and will at the very least, have a handedness matchup advantage. Second, Happ is a career 6-for-13 against Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo with two doubles, a triple and two RBI.

Spencer Strider over 8.5 strikeouts (-145)​

Strider hasn’t looked like himself his last two times out. He allowed a combined 13 earned runs against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets in just nine innings. While his location and efficiency may have faltered, he is still fanning batters. Strider struck out nine when facing the Philadelphia Phillies on May 28 and will face them on Tuesday. He should tally at least nine strikeouts if he can return to form and pitch more than five innings.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Wed

Luis Robert To Hit a Home Run (+420)​

The Chicago White Sox have a 4.75 implied run total and are in a spot for more offense tonight.

After a solid game last night, the White Sox will look to build on that with a favorable matchup against Martin Perez. Simply put, Perez isn't a pitcher you need to be worried about when he is on the mound, and given his splits against right-handed hitters, we should be looking to take player props against him.

Speaking of his struggles versus right-handed hitters, this season he comes in allowing a .459 SLG, .346 wOBA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, and 37.3% fly-ball rate. These are some juicy stats to see when we are searching for a pitcher to target, and that leads us to Luis Robert.

This season, Robert is blistering the ball versus left-handed pitchers with a 250 wRC+, .531 wOBA, .412 ISO, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate. We see that on full display recently with Robert having four home runs in his last eight games.

I love everything about this matchup and will be adding Robert To Record an RBI (+140).

Alex Verdugo To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)​

The Boston Red Sox are rolling right now, and with an 8.5-run total versus the Minnesota Twins, we should see some scoring tonight.

A high run expectation means there will be plenty of runners on the base paths -- and a good opportunity to correlate that with some player props. Let's turn to Alex Verdugo, who's about as solid as they come.

Verdugo isn't some massive power hitter; he's just consistent across the board and that's what we want with a simple total base prop. He comes in with 140 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .339 BABIP, and an 11.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste chances at the plate, and he puts the ball in play to get on base. Check, check, and check.

He's going up against Sonny Gray, who isn't as dominant on the mound as some may think. Against lefties this season, Gray has a 4.14 xRIP, .304 BABIP, .366 SLG, and most importantly, a low 15.7% strikeout rate. If he isn't going to be punching out hitters at the plate, Verdugo -- who already doesn't strike out -- should be in a great spot to make some contact and get on base.

Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)​

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Atlanta Braves are pretty good.

By saying pretty good, I mean they have one of the best offenses in the league and can plate multiple runs before you can blink. This often puts pitchers in a tough matchup and can be forced out of the game early after giving up a few runs.

The Braves come in with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. Not to mention the fact they have a .198 ISO (1st), 111 wRC+ (3rd), and 36.1% hard-contact rate (3rd) versus right-handed pitchers. They are the class of the MLB and not a team that gets shut down.

This leads us to under 6.5 strikeouts for Aaron Nola. There's no doubt Nola is a great pitcher, but we've seen his strikeout rate drop to 24.4% this season compared to being at least 29.0% in each of the prior three years. If his strikeouts are just a touch lower, and he is facing an elite lineup, it all points to the under on his strikeout prop tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Fri

Brandon Belt To Hit a Home Run (+350)​

The Toronto Blue Jays have a juicy 5.57 implied run total tonight against the Oakland Athletics.

The Blue Jays have been a bit inconsistent this season, but they have plenty of power in their lineup and can put that on display against the weak Athletics pitching staff tonight. Oakland will have James Kaprielian on the mound, who comes in allowing a .382 wOBA, .510 SLG, 6.32 xFIP, 2.16 HR/9, 48.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus lefties this season.

Those are some rough numbers to be sporting, and it presents a great chance for the Blue Jays to pile up some runs. We turn to the veteran, Brandon Belt, who comes in with strong 139 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .182 ISO, 44.9% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.

Belt is checking all the boxes we want to see tonight and will be in a good spot once the game gets to the Athletics' bullpen. With that said, I'm adding Belt To Record an RBI (+130).

Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)​

For a pitcher prop tonight, I'm going with over 4.5 strikeouts for Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert is truly a solid pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, but his recent results don't show it. On the season, he has 14 starts and has been over this 4.5 mark 10 times (71%). Three of the four times he has failed to reach this mark have come over his last four starts.

However, in two of those starts, he failed to get past the fourth inning after allowing five and six earned runs. He's had a few rough starts -- every pitcher does -- and I don't see it as an issue. He's still carrying a 26.0% strikeout rate, 11.1% swinging-strike rate, and 27.8% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate.

Those are some solid numbers, and his current results clearly don't reflect the level of consistency he's had this season. The Baltimore Orioles are a middle-of-the-road matchup with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, but this prop is too low considering what Gilbert has proven at large this season.

Fernando Tatis To Record 2+ Hits (+170)​

With a 5.20 implied run total, the San Diego Padres should be pouring on runs tonight.

A favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin puts the Padres in a spot to exceed that run total quickly, and that means we should be looking for some player props. Corbin is struggling mightily this season by allowing a .368 wOBA, .493 SLG, 4.53 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, 14.3% strikeout rate, 34.6% fly-ball rate, and .343 BABIP. That's one of the worst lines you'll see for a pitcher on tonight's slate, and that's what we want to be targeting.

This leads us directly to Fernando Tatis Jr., who is hitting the seams off the ball versus lefty pitchers this season. He comes in with a blistering 203 wRC+, .469 wOBA, .404 ISO, .306 BABIP, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.7% fly-ball rate. It's an elite matchup for Tatis and puts him in a spot to rack up the hits.

His odds for 2+ Total Bases sit at -140, which is a bit much for my taste. I'd rather shoot for the +170 from two hits instead.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Sat

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, June 24​

Ian Happ, over 1.5 total bases (-135)​

This is far less juice than you’d usually see for a 2+ total bases prop, but even at these odds I’m taking the plunge on Happ today. The Chicago Cubs will be facing off against St. Louis Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright today, and Happ has a long history of crushing his divisional rival — hitting a cool .344/.382/.813 with four homers and three doubles across 34 career plate appearances.


As if that weren’t reason enough to buy in, Saturday’s game will kick off the 2023 London Series, taking place at historic London Stadium — you know, the same place the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox combined for 50 runs and 10 homers back in 2019. Facing one of his favorite matchups in an extremely offense-friendly park, Happ should have no problem tallying at least one extra-base hit today.

Reese Olson, over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)​

You’d be forgiven for not following Olson (or really anything related to the Detroit Tigers pitching staff right now), but the rookie has looked far more promising than his 5.59 ERA would suggest across his first four starts. His 1.09 WHIP, 23.8% K rate and 3.96 expected ERA all point to a very solid pitcher, and Olson’s slider in particular looks like a legit out pitch (.161 batting average, 32.3% whiff rate). The matchup on Saturday couldn’t be better, as he’ll face a Minnesota Twins lineup that’s striking out a league-high 29.6% of the time against right-handed pitchers in the month of June. Olson’s cleared this mark in two of his four outings so far — only falling short in tough spots against the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves — and all signs point to him making it three of five tonight.

Graham Ashcraft, under 3.5 strikeouts (-125)​

A trendy sleeper pick entering the season, Ashcraft has been abysmal for the Cincinnati Reds so far, posting an eye-popping 12.72 ERA over his last seven starts before landing on the IL with a calf injury. He’ll make his return on Saturday, but without going on a rehab assignment it’s unlikely that the righty will be fully stretched out — meaning a tighter pitch count and fewer opportunities to pile up strikeouts. Not that he was striking very many guys out even before he got hurt: Ashcraft has fallen short of this number in seven of his last nine outings, with K and whiff rates that rank in the bottom 20% of the league. His opponent today, the scorching-hot Atlanta Braves, are striking out just 18.1% of the time against righties this month — the third-lowest rate in baseball — and all signs point to a rather short outing for Ashcraft.

 

[MAGAking1]

some Sun props

MLB player prop bets: Sunday, June 25​

Aaron Civale, over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)​

Civale will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cleveland starter is coming off back-to-back outings with at least six punchouts. The Brew Crew has struck out at least seven times against Cleveland’s starter in each of this series' first two games. Civale should finish with at least six strikeouts Sunday.

Yusei Kikuchi, to record a win (+125)​

Kikuchi has been great this year but brought a 6-2 record into June and hasn’t added wins or losses. He is due for a decision, and his matchup against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday should help him end that streak. Kikuchi last pitched six innings against the Miami Marlins. He allowed two hits and struck out six.

Trent Grisham, over 0.5 hits (-115)​

Grisham had a rough start to the season and is fighting his way back. He is hitting .208 on the year but has hits in four of his last five games. Grisham is hitting .290 against left-handers this year, and the Washington Nationals are starting southpaw MacKenzie Gore. It’s a small sample size, but Grisham is 2-for-2 against Gore in his career with a double.

 

[MAGAking1]

Monday props

Austin Hays To Hit a Home Run (+420)​

The Baltimore Orioles take on the Cincinnati Reds with an over/under set at 10.0, giving us a high expectation for offense tonight.

Two of the most exciting young teams in baseball are going head-to-head, and we should see some scoring as a result. The Orioles come in with a slate-high 5.23 implied run total, which could be surpassed easily given the favorable hitting weather in Baltimore.

The Reds will have Brandon Williamson, a young pitcher who is struggling in his first year in the MLB, on the mound tonight. To this point, Williamson has allowed a .543 SLG, 5.42 xFIP, 2.43 HR/9, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It hasn't been an easy go at things for Williamson, who should expect to see at least six righty hitters tonight.

We turn to Austin Hays, who is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 131 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .233 ISO, 50.9% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate. It won't be a surprise to see the scoring coming early and often in this game, so I'm adding Hays To Record an RBI (+110).

Spencer Strider Over 9.5 Strikeouts (-102)​

Spencer Strider is hilariously good at pitching.

Strider has ascended to the elite level of pitchers, and when he has a favorable matchup, you want to zero in on it.

Strider comes in with a 39.0% strikeout rate this season, which is noticeably higher than the league-average strikeout rate (22.7%). He's also carrying a 19.5% swinging-strike rate, which is higher than the league average of 11.1%. Last but not least, he has a 34.7% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate, which -- in no surprise -- is also higher than the league average (27.7%).

He's flat-out dominant across the board and, now, faces the easiest possible matchup you could imagine. The Minnesota Twins come in with a 27.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is good for the worst in the league. This has all the makings of a classic high-strikeout performance to dominate the slate.

This Strider will be cutting down opponents with strikeouts and whiffs -- not Andúril.

J.P. Crawford To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)​

The Seattle Mariners have a solid 4.81 implied run total and have some player props worth considering tonight.

They will be taking on Trevor Williams, who is simply an exceedingly average pitcher. There's nothing to be worried about with Williams on the mound and his low 12.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters. He's not dominant on the mound, which is shown by his 5.48 xFIP, .303 BABIP, 1.37 HR/9, and .471 SLG allowed to lefties.

With that said, we want to find a hitter on the Mariners who doesn't strike out a lot and puts the ball in play. That leads us to J.P. Crawford, who has a 16.3% strikeout rate versus righties along with a 129 wRC+, .349 wOBA, and .289 BABIP.

We're not looking for massive power from Crawford; he just needs to keep doing what he's going at the plate -- being super disciplined and putting the ball in play.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Jonah Heim To Hit a Home Run (+500)​

A great matchup and a narrative tonight?

That's what we have with Jonah Heim of the Texas Rangers, who have a 5.41 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate outside of Coors Field. The matchup is great versus Matt Manning, and it happens to be Jonah Heim's birthday! I love a good birthday narrative to add on top of a favorable matchup.

Manning has only two starts this season due to a foot injury, so we'll look to his career stats for some info. In his career, Manning has allowed a .425 SLG, 5.03 xFIP, 1.32 HR/9, 35.0% hard-contact rate, and 34.1% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. That's truly nothing to worry about, and the Rangers have plenty of power in their lineup.

When it comes to Heim, he comes in with a 116 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, 42.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This split has been favorable for Heim all season; 10 of his 11 home runs have come off of righty pitchers.

Of course, I'm adding Heim To Record an RBI (+145).

Jose Ramirez To Record 2+ Hits (+165)​

The Cleveland Guardians are rocking with a 4.80 implied run total tonight and have some great player props to target.

If a team is expected to be scoring runs, they are going to be getting runners on base, and that means we want to find some player props which will reflect that. Tonight, that leads us to Jose Ramirez, who has been one of the best hitters in the league over the last several seasons.

He comes in with a 160 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .221 ISO, 8.3% strikeout rate, .335 BABIP, and 46.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Ramirez will be taking on Brady Singer, who enters allowing a .380 wOBA, .515 SLG, 4.97 xFIP, .344 BABIP, 1.05 HR/9, and 40.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.

Ramirez's player prop for at least two total bases is sitting at -135, so I'd rather shoot for a bit of upside given the two outcomes are very closely correlated.

Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)​

Kevin Gausman is an elite pitcher and worth trusting tonight.

The juice might be a bit much for some people, but there's still value in this prop. Gausman is coming off of three "slower" starts where he posted six strikeouts or fewer in all of them but is still carrying a 31.5% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate overall this season. Gausman has elite upside and has shown that off this season by posting 10-plus punchouts six times.

I'm not worried about a few bad games from him -- especially with a favorable matchup awaiting him. He will be up against the San Francisco Giants, who come in with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (seventh worst in the league).

This is the type of matchup for Gausman to bounce back and return to his double-digit strikeout form