Mets @ Braves
Play: Braves +102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting: +101
Comment:
Late money on the Mets put the Braves as an underdog in their home opener and a bit too hard to pass up. This holds especially true with Perez on the mound as a road favorite. The Mets will find it hard to continue their starting pitching dominance with an erratic left hander on the mound and not facing a dormant Cardinals lineup. The Braves bats are hitting the ball well and got a much needed confidence boost in Philadelphia, as they found ways to win games that they were losing last year. Perez can be overpowering, but lacks consistency and location to be a safe road favorite bet. He really struggled on the road last year, as not being comfortable lead to a high walk rate, and forcing him in “just get it over mode” allowing hitters to bat .340 against him. The Braves have a series of right handed hitters swinging the ball well, which can give Perez, who allowed right handed hitters to bat over .300 against him problems. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but a bullpen not at the level they were at last year. They are more vulnerable at the front end, and Perez is not expected to go deep into this one.
I am not terribly excited about betting on Redman. But I will take my chances on him in this spot, as its always nice to have a southpaw on the hill when facing a left handed dominated lineup like the Mets. Redman had a horrible year last year, but actually put forth a WHIP under 1 against left handed bats. He also started the season solid out of the gates before tailing off. Not known by a lot of people is that the Braves now possess one of the better bullpens in the league, and not that much worse than the Mets. Soriano was a steal, and Gonzalez especially designed to play against the Phillies and Mets, who are loaded from the left side.