MLB: Friday April 6th Plays

[biff_chipmon]

BG,

This is great stuff man. Appreciate a handicapper who provides detailed analysis of their plays.

Question for you: Do you post your intrinsic values and target prices on all games every day?

I think it would be helpful for those people who can't continuously check the message board due to time constraints.

I would understand if you don't do this, but I think it would be helpful.

Keep up the great work.

 

[JGSB]

N.Y. Mets good value today.
They have only given up 2 runs in their last 3 games, and the bullpen has pitched a shutout.
These guys are SCARY GOOD this year. I know it's early, but I think that NLCS game 7 loss is still burning like a forest fire in that clubhouse.


I like Verlander going for Detroit today, he is their #1.
:lol: :drink: :drink:

 

[buffettgambler]

BG,

This is great stuff man. Appreciate a handicapper who provides detailed analysis of their plays.

Question for you: Do you post your intrinsic values and target prices on all games every day?

I think it would be helpful for those people who can't continuously check the message board due to time constraints.

I would understand if you don't do this, but I think it would be helpful.

Keep up the great work.

Thanks Bill. I will try to do so.

 

[buffettgambler]

N.Y. Mets good value today.
They have only given up 2 runs in their last 3 games, and the bullpen has pitched a shutout.
These guys are SCARY GOOD this year. I know it's early, but I think that NLCS game 7 loss is still burning like a forest fire in that clubhouse.


I like Verlander going for Detroit today, he is their #1.
:lol: :drink: :drink:

JGSB,
Your first comments fall victim of anchoring bias, as Maine, Glavine and Hernandez pitching well has nothing to do with Perez, who is a liability on the mound. There few runs allowed had as much to do with poor hitting by the Cardinals as it was a product of good pitching. Yes, their bullpen is very good, but the Braves bullpen is underrated and not too far behind.

I am not one to lay such chalk on road teams, but the Tigers are actually a bit undervalued in my opinion. I wouldn't bet them at their current price, but can't blame anyone who does.
Good luck.

 

[biff_chipmon]

BG,

Which book(s) do you use?

 

[buffettgambler]

Biff,
I use a few online shops, and have a couple other outs, including a pinny correlated option. Matchbook has its fair share of constraints, but is a must to have along with other options.

 

[biff_chipmon]

BG,

I've got Pinny (I'm Canadian) and I am looking into Matchbook...what are the constraints you speak of? I like the ability to "name" a price (i.e -151 on Detroit today) and then let the market determine if someone pays it.

I don't really have the time to stay on top of the lines every minute of every day.

Before I get on Matchbook, I'd like to hear about these "constraints".

Cheers and GL today!

 

[buffettgambler]

BG,

I've got Pinny (I'm Canadian) and I am looking into Matchbook...what are the constraints you speak of? I like the ability to "name" a price (i.e -151 on Detroit today) and then let the market determine if someone pays it.

I don't really have the time to stay on top of the lines every minute of every day.

Before I get on Matchbook, I'd like to hear about these "constraints".

Cheers and GL today!

Nothing to do with their management, credibility or risk, which is key. Their prices are great. The contraints structual. The early bird gets the worm in baseball, and just relying on matchbook makes it hard. Their lines are posted late at night, and you really can't bet there until early morning. Syndicates and sharps spot value early and unload. Their liquidity is lacking, forcing their limits to be low. For large nominal bettors, dollar cost averaging usually occurs if you arent naming the price. If you were stuck with Matchbook as your only out, you would have gotten burned on at least two of my plays today (and everyday), as liquidity for the Giants and DRays didnt happen until they were several basis points off the open. Matchbook is a market follower, not a market maker.

 

[finman13]

does anyone not like the phillies to wake up today? am i wrong about the phillies pounding the marlins last year? crafty moyer against the young hitters of the fish. dont get me wrong, i think the blue marlins have a playoff chance.

 

[finman13]

wow the rangers went from -101 to -141 the last minute

 

[finman13]

i meant -114

 

[buffettgambler]

does anyone not like the phillies to wake up today? am i wrong about the phillies pounding the marlins last year? crafty moyer against the young hitters of the fish. dont get me wrong, i think the blue marlins have a playoff chance.

Crafty, but well past his prime. You take away his Safeco numbers the last three years, and you will find it hard to find more than a handful of pitchers that have been worse than he was and still have a rotation spot. Books will not allow a public favorite team like the Phillies to be undervalued against Mitre. They put the line there for a reason, and squares are nibbling on the Phillies. No reason to bet this game unless either team is getting +116 or higher imo.

 

[biff_chipmon]

BG,

Did you happen to have your numbers (target price) for the A's, Nats and Rockies games?

Thanks!

 

[buffettgambler]

BG,

Did you happen to have your numbers (target price) for the A's, Nats and Rockies games?

Thanks!

Nope, I need to see five of the six starters in those games pitch at least once before quanitfying a line. Way too much speculation involved in the Nats game especially. I will just watch and learn from those games.

Good luck.

 

[biff_chipmon]

Thanks BG...smart strategy...GL tonight.

 

[Jibba]

Nope, I need to see five of the six starters in those games pitch at least once before quanitfying a line. Way too much speculation involved in the Nats game especially. I will just watch and learn from those games.

Good luck.

I was actually wondering your thoughts on that Rockies game as well. I know you're high on them and +140 against an old Maddux seems like a good price. Seems like a pass though. Have a good weekend.

 

[finman13]

what time do you think you will put your plays up for sat buffett? ill be out of the house most of the day and i want to catch them. my book has all the lines out already. have a great weekend all

 

[finman13]

i see the braves are 3 pts off being at your target price

 

[buffettgambler]

fin,
Yes, I am watching the Braves closely.
As far as tommorrows card posted, I might get them out tonight. There are a few really close to the target prices that might hit sometime today.
I could tell you right now these will be plays tomorrow

White Sox IV: -157 (adjusted from yesterday due to effectivness of the pitchers and hitters in a day vs. night and different weather conditions

Nats IV+109 PT +125

Hou IV -194 PT -180

And possibly a handful of others.

 

[buffettgambler]

Mets @ Braves
Play: Braves +102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting: +101
Comment:
Late money on the Mets put the Braves as an underdog in their home opener and a bit too hard to pass up. This holds especially true with Perez on the mound as a road favorite. The Mets will find it hard to continue their starting pitching dominance with an erratic left hander on the mound and not facing a dormant Cardinals lineup. The Braves bats are hitting the ball well and got a much needed confidence boost in Philadelphia, as they found ways to win games that they were losing last year. Perez can be overpowering, but lacks consistency and location to be a safe road favorite bet. He really struggled on the road last year, as not being comfortable lead to a high walk rate, and forcing him in “just get it over mode” allowing hitters to bat .340 against him. The Braves have a series of right handed hitters swinging the ball well, which can give Perez, who allowed right handed hitters to bat over .300 against him problems. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but a bullpen not at the level they were at last year. They are more vulnerable at the front end, and Perez is not expected to go deep into this one.

I am not terribly excited about betting on Redman. But I will take my chances on him in this spot, as its always nice to have a southpaw on the hill when facing a left handed dominated lineup like the Mets. Redman had a horrible year last year, but actually put forth a WHIP under 1 against left handed bats. He also started the season solid out of the gates before tailing off. Not known by a lot of people is that the Braves now possess one of the better bullpens in the league, and not that much worse than the Mets. Soriano was a steal, and Gonzalez especially designed to play against the Phillies and Mets, who are loaded from the left side.