MistaFlava's NFL Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (System Plays Inside)

[JohnnyMags]

I'm not complaining just suggesting MF starts a new post every week (like last year). Reason being it takes longer paging thru every post to get to the current week. When you get the final selection with only 10 min to post, time is of the essence and a fresh post would make it faster

OK what I mean't is a new post for each day that was my mistake and what I was asking was just a suggestion.
Why are people acting like I'm telling the guy to change his whole system?
I disrespect no one and I'll be the first to congratulate and thank MF so don't take what I'm saying to be any kind of criticism
Let's all just get along and win some money

Thank You MF

 

[MistaFlava]

Just for the record the “Suggested Lines” system also had Kansas City -3.5! Tough sledding this early season.

 

[5teamparlay]

Just for the record the “Suggested Lines” system also had Kansas City -3.5! Tough sledding this early season.

I think system should give the DOG more weight in these PrimeTime games.
We have seen this trend for years and it’s showing up nicely this year so far!!

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright so check this out. One of the variables included in all my lines is TRENDS (H2H) but it accounts for a very small part of the calculation (whether that's a good thing or not I'm not sure) but while keeping an eye on the H2H Trends and some side systems, here is what I came up with so far this season.

Might be hard to understand but the data is out there for everyone to see. Using the following variable designations:

Teams: FACTOR
Home/Away: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)
Favorite/Underdog: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)

Week 1

Dallas +9 (Road Team 5-1 ATS + Underdog 4-0 ATS secondary)
Arizona +3 (4-0 ATS overall)
LA Chargers +2 (3-1-1 ATS overall)
Denver -3 (4-1 ATS overall)
Cleveland +5.5 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-0 ATS last four in KC)
LA Rams -9.5 (Home Team 5-1 ATS secondary)
Las Vegas +3 (Home Team 7-2 ATS secondary)



Week 2

NY Giants +4 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-1 ATS last five in WAS)
Houston +13.5 (6-0 ATS overall)
Las Vegas +5.5 (4-0 ATS overall)
Minnesota +3.5 (3-0-2 ATS overall)
Kansas City -3.5 (4-1 ATS overall)



This is some crazy stuff and again all data still available to you to see for yourself. To make it more 101 for some. All my systems include trends of different kinds. I have some side data that shows different outcomes based on specific variables. The "Trends" ones have been on fire when only the TEAMS trends are factored in as a positive. When it's a PRIMETIME GAME the Dog/Fave and Road/Home trends can be considered since we don't like to sit any plays out otherwise if the game has no specific TEAM TREND POSITIVE, there is no play. I'm not a huge fan because it doesn't generate too many plays outside of PRIMETIME GAMES but damn this side variable system is 11-0 ATS this season.

*Before anyone freaks out I didn't play any of these, I didn't post any of these but the data I posted is available for anyone to go back and check.

**I will post the SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY in here (I will be betting on it myself) and it will be based on this TRENDS DATE alone. Might even go back and see if this applies to College Football since I can't seem to figure things out there.



MF

I am going to piggy back on this system for tonight's Monday Night Football Play although I am tempted to sit out. Will be interesting to track it long term along with the Suggested Lines.


adding...



Monday, September 20



Detroit Lions +11.5 (10 Units)

Most of the teams that looked horrendous last week looked a lot better this week but not all of them. What you have to decide heading into tonight is if you think the Green Bay Packers struggles last week (they looked God awful) were temporary because of the Aaron Rodgers drama in the off-season or if the issues run deeper and this team is going to struggle for the first month of the season? I'm leaning with the latter. I think the issues run deep and the problem with turning things around in such little time is that the Detroit Lions are a divisional opponent and they almost ALWAYS show up to play at Lambeau Field. The proof is in their recent record against the Packers which leads us to this system play. THE LIONS ARE 7-1 ATS IN THE LAST EIGHT MEETINGS BETWEEN THESE TEAMS. The Lions also showed some fight last week after being down huge against the Niners and came all the way back to cover the spread. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played on Monday Night Football and have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in September. The Green Bay Packers have always been a great bounce back team after a big loss but they are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record and tend to play down to the level of their opponents. Tonight should be a close game and this mini system is calling for a Lions cover. I'll bet on it.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams.


Detroit 27, Green Bay 19




:toast:

 

[playr101]

Gl tonight

 

[hobbs4]

Good luck flav

 

[Icemantbi]

Thanks MF! Let's get it tonight!

 

[max05]

thanks MF

 

[Mixerdriver76]

Gb!!

 

[THawk+]

Gl mf

 

[Icemantbi]

I really believe the Lions were the right side. Get em next week, your gonna turn this around :toast:

 

[THawk+]

The Lions were Goff-ed God he sucks!

 

[jefflahh]

Gb gave detroit every chance to cover. I'm shocked that the refs didnt force some penalty to get detroit the score somehow to cover tbh. the bounce back will come

 

[goleafs]

Poor team selection no excuses.

 

[exploited17]

Poor team selection no excuses.

Great post after an absence of 5 years
Lol
Clown

 

[fredo777]

Do you have the balls to post your picks every week ?
Or just here to criticize the guys that do?

 

[BigLouReturns]

He seems to over-analyze and relies too much on trends and personal opinion. Hope you turn your season around.

BL

 

[exploited17]

He seems to over-analyze and relies too much on trends and personal opinion. Hope you turn your season around.

BL

No he doesn't He has a system of numbers he uses. His write ups are trend but really haslittle to do with the picks
Guy had one of the greatest years in the history of the RX last year
Now he has a 2 games under .500 after 2 weeks and people are complaining
Shame on you losers
Pick your own games

 

[BigLouReturns]

There is personal opinion in every writeup, along with trends that sound like they come straight out of the Marc Lawrence football guide. If he concentrated more on just picking and posting plays instead of all these writeups, I'm willing to bet he does better.

 

[exploited17]

There is personal opinion in every writeup, along with trends that sound like they come straight out of the Marc Lawrence football guide. If he concentrated more on just picking and posting plays instead of all these writeups, I'm willing to bet he does better.

He did the same last year
He was like 90-40 lol
I am done with the ridiculousness
You were like 44-39 last year in the contest
Don't act like a gambling god
good luck flava