Here are the "Suggested Lines" for the afternoon games:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Suggested Line 1: Tampa Bay -14.44
Suggested Line 2: Tampa Bay -12.71
Suggested Line 3: Tampa Bay -11.92
Suggested Line 4: Tampa Bay -14.98
Tennessee at Seattle
Suggested Line 1: Seattle -7.29
Suggested Line 2: Seattle -7.01
Suggested Line 3: Seattle -7.68
Suggested Line 4: Seattle -8.29
Minnesota at Arizona
Suggested Line 1: Arizona -5.55
Suggested Line 2: Arizona -5.68
Suggested Line 3: Arizona -5.13
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -5.67
Dallas at Los Angeles Chargers
Suggested Line 1: Dallas -0.52
Suggested Line 2: Dallas -0.07
Suggested Line 3: Arizona -1.17
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -1.01
If there are any SYSTEM PLAYS I will be back to post them 10-15 minutes before each game. See you all then!
:toast:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Suggested Line 1: Tampa Bay -14.44
Suggested Line 2: Tampa Bay -12.71
Suggested Line 3: Tampa Bay -11.92
Suggested Line 4: Tampa Bay -14.98
Tennessee at Seattle
Suggested Line 1: Seattle -7.29
Suggested Line 2: Seattle -7.01
Suggested Line 3: Seattle -7.68
Suggested Line 4: Seattle -8.29
Minnesota at Arizona
Suggested Line 1: Arizona -5.55
Suggested Line 2: Arizona -5.68
Suggested Line 3: Arizona -5.13
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -5.67
Dallas at Los Angeles Chargers
Suggested Line 1: Dallas -0.52
Suggested Line 2: Dallas -0.07
Suggested Line 3: Arizona -1.17
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -1.01
If there are any SYSTEM PLAYS I will be back to post them 10-15 minutes before each game. See you all then!
:toast:
adding...
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (10 Units)
Another game where I am skeptical because the Cardinals looked so good last week but the system is picking them to win this game and cover the spread against a pretty bad Minnesota team. Actually the Vikings weren't that bad at all offensively last week but playing the Cincinnati defense and then playing this much improved Arizona defense is two different things. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four Road Games and 0-6 ATS versus NFC Conference opponents. Actually if you go all the way back to last season the Vikings are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. Arizona has a pretty shady history over the years as a Home Favorite but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 September Games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a losing record on the season. I think the Cardinals take that next step early this season and beat the teams they should be beating.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 September games.
Arizona 32, Minnesota 13
:toast:
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (10 Units)
Another game where I am skeptical because the Cardinals looked so good last week but the system is picking them to win this game and cover the spread against a pretty bad Minnesota team. Actually the Vikings weren't that bad at all offensively last week but playing the Cincinnati defense and then playing this much improved Arizona defense is two different things. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four Road Games and 0-6 ATS versus NFC Conference opponents. Actually if you go all the way back to last season the Vikings are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. Arizona has a pretty shady history over the years as a Home Favorite but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 September Games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a losing record on the season. I think the Cardinals take that next step early this season and beat the teams they should be beating.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 September games.
Arizona 32, Minnesota 13
:toast:
System is struggling right now so I'm going to put it on hold for a bit and not touch the two late afternoon games despite plays likely on Dallas and Seattle. I will be posting something else I have been working on to workaround this early season stuff and will be posting it in here for tonight's SNF game.
Cheers to anyone who made money today. Some terrible games.
:toast:
Cheers to anyone who made money today. Some terrible games.
:toast:
Alright so check this out. One of the variables included in all my lines is TRENDS (H2H) but it accounts for a very small part of the calculation (whether that's a good thing or not I'm not sure) but while keeping an eye on the H2H Trends and some side systems, here is what I came up with so far this season.
Might be hard to understand but the data is out there for everyone to see. Using the following variable designations:
Teams: FACTOR
Home/Away: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)
Favorite/Underdog: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)
Week 1
Dallas +9 (Road Team 5-1 ATS + Underdog 4-0 ATS secondary)
Arizona +3 (4-0 ATS overall)
LA Chargers +2 (3-1-1 ATS overall)
Denver -3 (4-1 ATS overall)
Cleveland +5.5 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-0 ATS last four in KC)
LA Rams -9.5 (Home Team 5-1 ATS secondary)
Las Vegas +3 (Home Team 7-2 ATS secondary)
Week 2
NY Giants +4 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-1 ATS last five in WAS)
Houston +13.5 (6-0 ATS overall)
Las Vegas +5.5 (4-0 ATS overall)
Minnesota +3.5 (3-0-2 ATS overall)
This is some crazy stuff and again all data still available to you to see for yourself. To make it more 101 for some. All my systems include trends of different kinds. I have some side data that shows different outcomes based on specific variables. The "Trends" ones have been on fire when only the TEAMS trends are factored in as a positive. When it's a PRIMETIME GAME the Dog/Fave and Road/Home trends can be considered since we don't like to sit any plays out otherwise if the game has no specific TEAM TREND POSITIVE, there is no play. I'm not a huge fan because it doesn't generate too many plays outside of PRIMETIME GAMES but damn this side variable system is 11-0 ATS this season.
*Before anyone freaks out I didn't play any of these, I didn't post any of these but the data I posted is available for anyone to go back and check.
**I will post the SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY in here (I will be betting on it myself) and it will be based on this TRENDS DATE alone. Might even go back and see if this applies to College Football since I can't seem to figure things out there.
MF
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (10 Units)
Alright so using the system above I will say right away that the game trends show a regular play (no secondary lines needed) as Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore and Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Baltimore overall. Now to talk about the game a bit. We all saw the Ravens blow that game away on Monday Night Football in some crazy fashion. QB Lamar Jackson kind of showed he is not capable of shouldering the massive load of carrying a team by himself and things won't get any easier tonight as the injuries continue to pile up for the Ravens and they continue to lose guys on both sides of the ball. Lamar turned the ball over when it mattered most last game and as much as the Raiders tried to lose, the Ravens offense had absolutely nothing outside of the first half. Kansas City on the other hand did not look good against the Browns and struggled defensively to keep the Browns out of the End Zone but that was first game rust and I think they live and die for Primetime Games like this one tonight. The Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 September games and while the Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up loss. The Road Team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams (not considered in the formula for tonight as no secondary trends are needed). I'm going Kansas City on this undefeated system for 2021.
Trend of the System: Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Baltimore.
Kansas City 34, Baltimore 13
*If you are a fan of my work you know I never stop trying to find edges and advantages and while toying with my numbers today for a system that is off to a slow start in 2021 I took some parts of that system (variables) and came up with this. Numbers are all available to see for anyone out there. Nothing made up.
:toast:
Might be hard to understand but the data is out there for everyone to see. Using the following variable designations:
Teams: FACTOR
Home/Away: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)
Favorite/Underdog: NON-FACTOR (Primetime games as secondary)
Week 1
Dallas +9 (Road Team 5-1 ATS + Underdog 4-0 ATS secondary)
Arizona +3 (4-0 ATS overall)
LA Chargers +2 (3-1-1 ATS overall)
Denver -3 (4-1 ATS overall)
Cleveland +5.5 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-0 ATS last four in KC)
LA Rams -9.5 (Home Team 5-1 ATS secondary)
Las Vegas +3 (Home Team 7-2 ATS secondary)
Week 2
NY Giants +4 (4-1 ATS last five, 4-1 ATS last five in WAS)
Houston +13.5 (6-0 ATS overall)
Las Vegas +5.5 (4-0 ATS overall)
Minnesota +3.5 (3-0-2 ATS overall)
This is some crazy stuff and again all data still available to you to see for yourself. To make it more 101 for some. All my systems include trends of different kinds. I have some side data that shows different outcomes based on specific variables. The "Trends" ones have been on fire when only the TEAMS trends are factored in as a positive. When it's a PRIMETIME GAME the Dog/Fave and Road/Home trends can be considered since we don't like to sit any plays out otherwise if the game has no specific TEAM TREND POSITIVE, there is no play. I'm not a huge fan because it doesn't generate too many plays outside of PRIMETIME GAMES but damn this side variable system is 11-0 ATS this season.
*Before anyone freaks out I didn't play any of these, I didn't post any of these but the data I posted is available for anyone to go back and check.
**I will post the SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY in here (I will be betting on it myself) and it will be based on this TRENDS DATE alone. Might even go back and see if this applies to College Football since I can't seem to figure things out there.
MF
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (10 Units)
Alright so using the system above I will say right away that the game trends show a regular play (no secondary lines needed) as Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore and Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Baltimore overall. Now to talk about the game a bit. We all saw the Ravens blow that game away on Monday Night Football in some crazy fashion. QB Lamar Jackson kind of showed he is not capable of shouldering the massive load of carrying a team by himself and things won't get any easier tonight as the injuries continue to pile up for the Ravens and they continue to lose guys on both sides of the ball. Lamar turned the ball over when it mattered most last game and as much as the Raiders tried to lose, the Ravens offense had absolutely nothing outside of the first half. Kansas City on the other hand did not look good against the Browns and struggled defensively to keep the Browns out of the End Zone but that was first game rust and I think they live and die for Primetime Games like this one tonight. The Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 September games and while the Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up loss. The Road Team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams (not considered in the formula for tonight as no secondary trends are needed). I'm going Kansas City on this undefeated system for 2021.
Trend of the System: Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Baltimore.
Kansas City 34, Baltimore 13
*If you are a fan of my work you know I never stop trying to find edges and advantages and while toying with my numbers today for a system that is off to a slow start in 2021 I took some parts of that system (variables) and came up with this. Numbers are all available to see for anyone out there. Nothing made up.
:toast:
I think they live and die for Primetime Games like this one tonight.
Chiefs are 4-4 ATS as primetime road favorites under Reid.
Chiefs are 4-4 ATS as primetime road favorites under Reid.
