Gave it my best shot in CFB yesterday. Around 60%. I feel like I'm halfway there for Regular Season system and will spend quite a bit of time working on that this week. For now nothing changes in the NFL System. Made a few tweaks to start the season to compensate for the return of crowds and some injury situations. Here are the "Suggested Lines" for the Early Games (Keep in mind these can easily change with injuries and line movement as we get closer to kickoff):
Buffalo at Miami
Suggested Line 1: Buffalo -7.56
Suggested Line 2: Buffalo -3.22
Suggested Line 3: Buffalo -4.01
Suggested Line 4: Buffalo -0.78
LA Rams at Indianapolis
Suggested Line 1: LA Rams -2.88
Suggested Line 2: LA Rams -1.92
Suggested Line 3: LA Rams -2.02
Suggested Line 4: LA Rams -1.67
New England @ New York Jets
Suggested Line 1: New England -7.33
Suggested Line 2: New England -5.46
Suggested Line 3: New England -7.09
Suggested Line 4: New England -3.02
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Suggested Line 1: Philadelphia -0.54
Suggested Line 2: Philadelphia -0.06
Suggested Line 3: Philadelphia -0.17
Suggested Line 4: Philadelphia -1.19
Cincinnati at Chicago
Suggested Line 1: Cincinnati -0.81
Suggested Line 2: Chicago -2.33
Suggested Line 3: Chicago -1.75
Suggested Line 4: Chicago -0.02
Denver at Jacksonville
Suggested Line 1: Denver -3.44
Suggested Line 2: Denver -2.88
Suggested Line 3: Denver -4.11
Suggested Line 4: Denver -4.29
Houston at Cleveland
Suggested Line 1: Cleveland -10.92
Suggested Line 2: Cleveland -10.51
Suggested Line 3: Cleveland -11.98
Suggested Line 4: Cleveland -10.77
New Orleans at Carolina
Suggested Line 1: New Orleans -4.12
Suggested Line 2: New Orleans -5.68
Suggested Line 3: New Orleans -5.19
Suggested Line 4: New Orleans -6.28
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Suggested Line 1: Pittsburgh -4.31
Suggested Line 2: Pittsburgh -3.95
Suggested Line 3: Pittsburgh -3.98
Suggested Line 4: Pittsburgh -4.18
I will be posting the official SYSTEM PLAYS around 10-15 minutes before kickoff and will post the "Suggested Lines" for the afternoon games sometime mid-afternoon. See you all then!
:toast:
Buffalo at Miami
Suggested Line 1: Buffalo -7.56
Suggested Line 2: Buffalo -3.22
Suggested Line 3: Buffalo -4.01
Suggested Line 4: Buffalo -0.78
LA Rams at Indianapolis
Suggested Line 1: LA Rams -2.88
Suggested Line 2: LA Rams -1.92
Suggested Line 3: LA Rams -2.02
Suggested Line 4: LA Rams -1.67
New England @ New York Jets
Suggested Line 1: New England -7.33
Suggested Line 2: New England -5.46
Suggested Line 3: New England -7.09
Suggested Line 4: New England -3.02
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Suggested Line 1: Philadelphia -0.54
Suggested Line 2: Philadelphia -0.06
Suggested Line 3: Philadelphia -0.17
Suggested Line 4: Philadelphia -1.19
Cincinnati at Chicago
Suggested Line 1: Cincinnati -0.81
Suggested Line 2: Chicago -2.33
Suggested Line 3: Chicago -1.75
Suggested Line 4: Chicago -0.02
Denver at Jacksonville
Suggested Line 1: Denver -3.44
Suggested Line 2: Denver -2.88
Suggested Line 3: Denver -4.11
Suggested Line 4: Denver -4.29
Houston at Cleveland
Suggested Line 1: Cleveland -10.92
Suggested Line 2: Cleveland -10.51
Suggested Line 3: Cleveland -11.98
Suggested Line 4: Cleveland -10.77
New Orleans at Carolina
Suggested Line 1: New Orleans -4.12
Suggested Line 2: New Orleans -5.68
Suggested Line 3: New Orleans -5.19
Suggested Line 4: New Orleans -6.28
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Suggested Line 1: Pittsburgh -4.31
Suggested Line 2: Pittsburgh -3.95
Suggested Line 3: Pittsburgh -3.98
Suggested Line 4: Pittsburgh -4.18
I will be posting the official SYSTEM PLAYS around 10-15 minutes before kickoff and will post the "Suggested Lines" for the afternoon games sometime mid-afternoon. See you all then!
:toast:
I agree, back off it's free and he's better than most guys I've pd over last 25 years.
Thank you Flav, I'm sure I speak for most!
adding...
Sunday, September 19
Indianapolis Colts +4 (10 Units)
The Los Angeles Rams could probably qualify as the "Sucker Bet" of the Week but it's a bit early for Sucker Bets right now and I'll try to treat this one normally. I say that because the Rams are coming off a huge season opening Sunday Night Football win over the Chicago Bears in a game where they looked pretty good (in the 2nd Half at least) on both sides of the ball. Now they go on the road and are a -3.5 fave against a team that got demolished and picked apart by the Seattle Seahawks (another West Coast team playing at 1pm)? Doesn't add up. Having said that, short week, early game on East Coast against a bad team and the Rams could come out a bit sleepy in this one. As of right now close to 70% of public bets are on the Rams. Colts QB Carson Wentz wasn't that bad last week completing 65.8% of his passes for 251 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 Touchdown Passes, 0 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 102.0. Decent. You have to keep in mind too that the LA Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a Losing Record on the season and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win of 14+ points in their previous game. The Colts on the other hand are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a Double Digit loss at Home and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games versus a team with a winning record. No way the Colts look as bad as they did last week on defense and that should give them a chance here.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a Double Digit loss at Home.
Indianapolis 23, LA Rams 17
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (10 Units)
This is a fantastic Week 2 matchup and a great opportunity for everyone to find out if both the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are the real deal. The Niners looked great last week until the 4th Quarter when they gave up a ton of points to the Lions who ended up storming back and covering the +9.5 point spread after being down by 20+. Not sure what happened there. The Eagles on the other hand looked incredible in a 32-6 road win over the hapless Atlanta Falcons but many experts seem to think it wasn't all that legit since the Falcons are a horrendous team. The Niners outyarded the Lions by only 12 total yards while the Eagles dominated the Falcons by 174 more total yards. Dating back to last season the Niners have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 games overall and in only 9 of their last 35 games as a Favorite. Please read that again. My goodness. In the last 9 meetings between these two teams the Eagles have covered the spread 7 times and they are an incredible 5-0 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog. The Eagles are also on a 4-0 ATS Home Game run dating back to last season and despite their previous issues playing well in the Month of September, they really set the tone last week for what could be a special season and I am still shocked they are Underdogs at home in this one. Jalen Hurts looks like the real deal and this could be the only time this season the Eagles are dogs at home.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog.
Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 20
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (10 Units)
The second week of the Regular Season is always a very good time to bet on underdogs because the lines are set with gross overreactions to what we saw in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Do I think the Jacksonville Jaguars looked horrendous last week? Yes absolutely. Do I think they are that bad of a football team? No way. It was a rough start for QB Trevor Lawrence and the entire offense that were supposed to put up huge numbers against the Houston Texans but give the Texans respect they played really well. Denver went on the road and won their opener against the Giants but if you watched that game it was almost a case of the Giants shooting themselves in the foot like they do best and they did it over and over and over again. Game was a lot closer than the final score. I took at last season and found some interesting data showing that Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and they are still only 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a Favorite despite the win and cover last week. The System is well aware of how bad the Jaguars have been ATS wise the last decade and all of that has been taken into consideration but you have to know that the Jaguars are also 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Denver and I think if Lawrence cuts down on the mistakes they Jags keep this very close.
Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
Denver 23, Jacksonville 21
Houston Texans +13.5 (10 Units)
The respect issues continue for the Houston Texans and I think this team will more than enjoy playing the role of underdog once again this week. With all the drama they experienced in the off-season with their disgruntled and troubled start Quarterback, the Texans had to be the most impressive team in Week 1 of the season and I mean that in the most respectful way to the Super Bowl contending teams. The Browns also looked great and should have no problems scoring points against this Texans defense like they did against the Chiefs defense but you have to believe team morale is not at it's highest. They blew yet another game in Kansas City last week, Odell Beckham Jr is still not back from his injury despite looking ready to go last week and now they are at home in an early game they should be winning big. Even last season the Texans were a very good Underdog bet and are actually 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus AFC Conference opponents and an impressive 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with Cleveland. The Browns are only 1-4 ATS in their last five Home Games dating back to last season and are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a Favorite. What's even crazier is they have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 38 games versus a team with a winning record and have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 17 games versus AFC Conference opponents. I think the Browns win but it will be close.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
Cleveland 31, Houston 21
New Orleans Saints -3 (10 Units)
I've been asked this question so many times this week. Are the New Orleans Saints the real deal with QB Jameis Winston or was Week 1 just a case of the Green Bay Packers being awful? I would normally say that the overreaction after one game is huge for these Saints because they are dealing with a ton of injuries and were not supposed to look that good in their opener but it's a mix of both I think. Winston has obviously matured as a Quarterback and Sean Payton led teams are always going to be competitive but today we're about to find out a bit more as they go on the road as Favorites against a Carolina team that looked good in a big win over the New York Jets last week. Went back and looked at some stats for the Saints coming off games where they scored a ton of points and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they score 30+ points and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a win of 14+ points in their previous game. The Saints are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Road Games as a Favorite and have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a Favorite. The Road Team in this series has covered the spread in 29 of the last 40 meetings and the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Carolina. The Panthers have been a very good Underdog play the last couple of seasons but they are only 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Home Games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC South opponents. I think the Saints continue where they leftoff last week and win this game on the road.
Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Carolina.
New Orleans 23, Carolina 17
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 (10 Units)
The Pittsburgh Steelers showed once again that they are going to be a contender in the AFC Conference with a massive season opening win at Buffalo last week but let's not overreact completely. Sure it was a nice win and all but if you watched the game the Steelers were down 10-0 at the Half and the Bills pretty much handed them the game late with some big mistakes. I won't take too much away from the Steelers because they are a good team but I'm not sure they are that good. The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game off their HUGE win on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and although it's a short week the confidence in this Locker Room must be sky high. The Ravens were a top tier opponent that's for sure and the Raiders found a way to come from behind (down 14-0) and win a big game. Injuries continue to plague the Raiders and RB Josh Jacobs is out but that's why they signed RB Kenyan Drake to such a big contract in the off-season. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams and all of those have been as an Underdog. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Road Games as an Underdog. The Steelers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a Favorite and I think the Raiders can keep this game close big making big plays on both sides of the ball. I see the Raiders moving to 2-0 SU on the season.
Trend of the Game: Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in their last five Road Games as an Underdog.
Las Vegas 26, Pittsburgh 24
:toast:
Sunday, September 19
Indianapolis Colts +4 (10 Units)
The Los Angeles Rams could probably qualify as the "Sucker Bet" of the Week but it's a bit early for Sucker Bets right now and I'll try to treat this one normally. I say that because the Rams are coming off a huge season opening Sunday Night Football win over the Chicago Bears in a game where they looked pretty good (in the 2nd Half at least) on both sides of the ball. Now they go on the road and are a -3.5 fave against a team that got demolished and picked apart by the Seattle Seahawks (another West Coast team playing at 1pm)? Doesn't add up. Having said that, short week, early game on East Coast against a bad team and the Rams could come out a bit sleepy in this one. As of right now close to 70% of public bets are on the Rams. Colts QB Carson Wentz wasn't that bad last week completing 65.8% of his passes for 251 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 Touchdown Passes, 0 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 102.0. Decent. You have to keep in mind too that the LA Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a Losing Record on the season and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win of 14+ points in their previous game. The Colts on the other hand are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a Double Digit loss at Home and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games versus a team with a winning record. No way the Colts look as bad as they did last week on defense and that should give them a chance here.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a Double Digit loss at Home.
Indianapolis 23, LA Rams 17
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (10 Units)
This is a fantastic Week 2 matchup and a great opportunity for everyone to find out if both the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are the real deal. The Niners looked great last week until the 4th Quarter when they gave up a ton of points to the Lions who ended up storming back and covering the +9.5 point spread after being down by 20+. Not sure what happened there. The Eagles on the other hand looked incredible in a 32-6 road win over the hapless Atlanta Falcons but many experts seem to think it wasn't all that legit since the Falcons are a horrendous team. The Niners outyarded the Lions by only 12 total yards while the Eagles dominated the Falcons by 174 more total yards. Dating back to last season the Niners have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 games overall and in only 9 of their last 35 games as a Favorite. Please read that again. My goodness. In the last 9 meetings between these two teams the Eagles have covered the spread 7 times and they are an incredible 5-0 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog. The Eagles are also on a 4-0 ATS Home Game run dating back to last season and despite their previous issues playing well in the Month of September, they really set the tone last week for what could be a special season and I am still shocked they are Underdogs at home in this one. Jalen Hurts looks like the real deal and this could be the only time this season the Eagles are dogs at home.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog.
Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 20
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (10 Units)
The second week of the Regular Season is always a very good time to bet on underdogs because the lines are set with gross overreactions to what we saw in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Do I think the Jacksonville Jaguars looked horrendous last week? Yes absolutely. Do I think they are that bad of a football team? No way. It was a rough start for QB Trevor Lawrence and the entire offense that were supposed to put up huge numbers against the Houston Texans but give the Texans respect they played really well. Denver went on the road and won their opener against the Giants but if you watched that game it was almost a case of the Giants shooting themselves in the foot like they do best and they did it over and over and over again. Game was a lot closer than the final score. I took at last season and found some interesting data showing that Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and they are still only 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a Favorite despite the win and cover last week. The System is well aware of how bad the Jaguars have been ATS wise the last decade and all of that has been taken into consideration but you have to know that the Jaguars are also 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Denver and I think if Lawrence cuts down on the mistakes they Jags keep this very close.
Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
Denver 23, Jacksonville 21
Houston Texans +13.5 (10 Units)
The respect issues continue for the Houston Texans and I think this team will more than enjoy playing the role of underdog once again this week. With all the drama they experienced in the off-season with their disgruntled and troubled start Quarterback, the Texans had to be the most impressive team in Week 1 of the season and I mean that in the most respectful way to the Super Bowl contending teams. The Browns also looked great and should have no problems scoring points against this Texans defense like they did against the Chiefs defense but you have to believe team morale is not at it's highest. They blew yet another game in Kansas City last week, Odell Beckham Jr is still not back from his injury despite looking ready to go last week and now they are at home in an early game they should be winning big. Even last season the Texans were a very good Underdog bet and are actually 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus AFC Conference opponents and an impressive 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with Cleveland. The Browns are only 1-4 ATS in their last five Home Games dating back to last season and are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a Favorite. What's even crazier is they have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 38 games versus a team with a winning record and have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 17 games versus AFC Conference opponents. I think the Browns win but it will be close.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
Cleveland 31, Houston 21
New Orleans Saints -3 (10 Units)
I've been asked this question so many times this week. Are the New Orleans Saints the real deal with QB Jameis Winston or was Week 1 just a case of the Green Bay Packers being awful? I would normally say that the overreaction after one game is huge for these Saints because they are dealing with a ton of injuries and were not supposed to look that good in their opener but it's a mix of both I think. Winston has obviously matured as a Quarterback and Sean Payton led teams are always going to be competitive but today we're about to find out a bit more as they go on the road as Favorites against a Carolina team that looked good in a big win over the New York Jets last week. Went back and looked at some stats for the Saints coming off games where they scored a ton of points and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they score 30+ points and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a win of 14+ points in their previous game. The Saints are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Road Games as a Favorite and have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a Favorite. The Road Team in this series has covered the spread in 29 of the last 40 meetings and the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Carolina. The Panthers have been a very good Underdog play the last couple of seasons but they are only 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Home Games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC South opponents. I think the Saints continue where they leftoff last week and win this game on the road.
Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Carolina.
New Orleans 23, Carolina 17
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 (10 Units)
The Pittsburgh Steelers showed once again that they are going to be a contender in the AFC Conference with a massive season opening win at Buffalo last week but let's not overreact completely. Sure it was a nice win and all but if you watched the game the Steelers were down 10-0 at the Half and the Bills pretty much handed them the game late with some big mistakes. I won't take too much away from the Steelers because they are a good team but I'm not sure they are that good. The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game off their HUGE win on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and although it's a short week the confidence in this Locker Room must be sky high. The Ravens were a top tier opponent that's for sure and the Raiders found a way to come from behind (down 14-0) and win a big game. Injuries continue to plague the Raiders and RB Josh Jacobs is out but that's why they signed RB Kenyan Drake to such a big contract in the off-season. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams and all of those have been as an Underdog. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Road Games as an Underdog. The Steelers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a Favorite and I think the Raiders can keep this game close big making big plays on both sides of the ball. I see the Raiders moving to 2-0 SU on the season.
Trend of the Game: Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in their last five Road Games as an Underdog.
Las Vegas 26, Pittsburgh 24
:toast:
