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Sunday, November 22
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (10 Units)
This is obviously a scary thought taking the Joe Mixon-less Bengals on the road against a very good Washington defense but the system likes it under Version A and it looks like it is a Version B play as well. The Bengals are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers but the Steelers are a very good team and right now could be considered the best team in the NFL. The week before the Bengals beat the Tennessee Titans at home and have been competitive for the most part covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. The Washington Football Team are not a good football team and it looks like they are gunning for the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They are only 2-7 on the season and even though the division is shockingly not out of reach, a 2 game deficit in this case might be out of reach. This team just doesn't like winning. Cincinnati comes into this game 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a Road Underdog. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they allowed 30+ points. The Underdog in this series has covered the spread in four straight. Also consider that Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last four home games as a favorite and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a straight up loss. They are NOT a good team. System says take Bengals.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss.
Cincinnati 27, Washington 16
New Orleans Saints -3.5 (10 Units)
The obvious play here is going to be on the Falcons because QB Drew Brees is out and QB Jameis Winston is shocking "not going to be involved in offensive plays" but do we really believe this and even then, do we know what to expect with QB Taysom Hill at the helms? The system likes this play under Version A and Version B so there's that and I'm going to be on it. The Falcons come into this game on a nice two game win streak beating Denver and Carolina but now they face one of the best all-around teams in the NFL who have won six straight games. Brees was worth some 3-4 points in the spread because it opened at -7 in some books and has gone down to 3.5 at almost every book right now. The Falcons again will be popular because of their success the last few seasons as a road underdog but, and it's a big but, they are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a game where they score 30+ points. The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing against a team with a losing record overall and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons. Also consider that when this team is hot they are hot and they have covered the spread in 29 of their last 43 games coming off a spread cover the previous game. The Falcons have all their weapons back and this game could go back and forth but if there is one guy who is familiar with the offense in New Orleans it's Taysom Hill. Buckle up for this one.
Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record.
New Orleans 31, Atlanta 17
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 (10 Units)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably and not so arguably the best team in the NFL coming into this week with their 9-0 record (best in the NFL and only undefeated team) and they are also 7-2 ATS on the year. This team doesn't mess around and when it's time to put away opponents they put them away. The system has been all over the Steelers in 2020 and it's on them again this week under Version A and Version B. Hard to go against it. I know the Jaguars will have some popularity because of the way rookie RB Jake Luton has played so far this season and because of the way they competed at Green Bay last week but you really can't compare Green Bay's depleted defense to this one of the Steelers. Right now the Steelers rank TOP 10 in every major NFL defensive category including having the #3 ranked points scored defense in the league and ranking #5 against the pass. We all know the Jaguars are going to have to pass in this game and pass a lot so that's not a good thing for a rookie quarterback. Under Mike Tomlin this Steelers team is not a letdown team. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up win. They have also covered five straight spreads versus AFC Conference opponents and the Road Team in this series is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Jacksonville is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus AFC Conference opponents and despite playing well recently they've covered only 2 of their last 7 overall. Steelers should win this big.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they score 30+ points.
Pittsburgh 37, Jacksonville 9
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (10 Units)
Alright this is one of those that falls under Version A only and does NOT fall under Version B due to Suggested Line 4 which says Browns cover. Approach this one at your own risk but I am obviously betting on and posting all system plays so here we are. The average line says Cleveland by only 1.7 so we are going Eagles here. Yes the same Eagles who just got clobbered by the Giants. At the same time though they did beat the Giants and beat the Cowboys in the two weeks prior and they did keep it close with Baltimore and grab a win in San Fran. The Browns are that team. Everytime you think they're going to win and/or cover they somehow screw you over. Look at last week. The system was on Houston and yes we got lucky but all things have to be considered in NFL betting including teams who like to end games the way Nick Chubb ended that (okay maybe that's a reach but you get what I mean). The last two times the Browns have won a game they have lost the next (against Pittsburgh and Las Vegas). The Eagles need a win in this one to keep up in the horrendous NFC East Division race and they are now starting to get healthy. Also keep in mind that Cleveland have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 27 games played in the month of November and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record on the season. The Browns are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a Favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game. So far this season the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming off a spread loss covering against the Niners, Ravens and Cowboys. That trend should continue after the brutal loss to Giants last week.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming off a spread loss this season.
Philadelphia 23, Cleveland 20
Carolina Panthers +3 (10 Units)
The line just went bonkers with the announcement that QB Teddy Bridgewater is out for this game and QB PJ Walker is getting the start. The system likes this play under Version A and Version B and it will be interesting to track how injuries impact these lines in the future but for now I will follow. Walker has only played a handful of downs this season and this is a big risk to take with CMAC out and the Panthers offense all of a sudden looking like it could struggle but Carolina has to have a game plan in place. They've lost 5 straight games coming into this one but have covered the spread in two of those games. The Lions look like an easy play now but they come in having lost two of their last three games overall and they just barely got by a very bad Washington team last week. Three of their four road wins this season (yes I'm shocked too that they've won four on the road) have come by 3 points or less. The Lions are only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus NFC Conference opponents and only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Road Games. They are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played in November and have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 20 games overall. Carolina comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a double digit loss at home. The Underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. Odds are stacked against them but I think the Panthers find a way to win. Again I am treading lightly here because I may have to design something to incorporate major QB injuries depending on how this game and the Saints game goes. Nonetheless playing this.
Trend of the Game: Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog.
Carolina 22, Detroit 21
Tennessee Titans +6 (10 Units)
Oh wow this should be a great game and the system is calling for a play under Version A only so again tread lightly if you are not a fan of this version becaue Suggested Line 2 is saying this is not a play under Version B. Obviously most would expect the Ravens to bounce back after their horrendous effort against the Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football but maybe this team is just not that good? Both teams come in with a 6-3 record on the season so this should be a huge game for both. The Titans are coming off a bad loss to Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week but they've had those extra days to rest while Baltimore comes in on short rest after taking a beatdown and they have now lost two of their last three games. They lost to the Patriots and they also lost the Steelers the week before. Now they face another team considered in the TOP 10 teams in the NFL so this should be close as the system is calling for. Tennesse for some reason enjoys playing games on this Field Turf stuff and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on this instead of real grass. Not sure how much that means but maybe it means something. Baltimore on the other hand has covered the spread in only 5 of their last 18 Home Games as a Favorite. They are only 1-5 ATS overall in their last six games as a Favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss. Good Lord. Like I said before I think this game is close and I think the Titans keep it within a touchdown and possibly win late as per the system.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on Field Turf.
Tennessee 31, Baltimore 28
New England Patriots -2.5 (10 Units)
This feels like a gigantic trap doesn't it because of the way the Patriots played on Sunday Night Football absolutely destroying the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens but hey maybe they have turned that corner and maybe their defense is up to the task of carrying this team on their shoulders? It's hard to believe the way this team has been playing but they are currently on a two game win streak and gaining condifence and getting healthy on defense. This play falls under Version A and Version B so we are a full go on the Pats to win and cover. Houston looked absolutely awful last week in some terrible conditions in Cleveland so we can't really blame them but if Nick Chubb doesn't go down on the 1 yard line instead of scoring a touchdown then the Texans don't even cover but we'll take it since the system picked them. The only home win of the season for Houston was against the Jacksonville Jaguars and in other games they lost to Baltimore by 17, Minnnesota by 8 and Green Bay by 15. Those are all decent teams and right now I've got the Patriots slowly creeping back into the list of top teams or mid-tier teams. Keep in mind folks New England has covered the spread in 22 of their last 30 games versus a team with a losing record on the season and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Houston. The Texans are an ATS disaster for the most part. They have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 Home Games and only 2 of their last 10 overall so for them to cover two in a row would be shocking. HOUSTON IS 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and only 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a spread cover in the previous game! They are also only 1-5 ATS in their last six Home Games as an Underdog. The Pats keep rolling says the system.
Trend of the Game: New England is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games versus a team with a losing record on the season.
New England 26, Houston 19
:toast:
Sunday, November 22
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (10 Units)
This is obviously a scary thought taking the Joe Mixon-less Bengals on the road against a very good Washington defense but the system likes it under Version A and it looks like it is a Version B play as well. The Bengals are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers but the Steelers are a very good team and right now could be considered the best team in the NFL. The week before the Bengals beat the Tennessee Titans at home and have been competitive for the most part covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. The Washington Football Team are not a good football team and it looks like they are gunning for the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They are only 2-7 on the season and even though the division is shockingly not out of reach, a 2 game deficit in this case might be out of reach. This team just doesn't like winning. Cincinnati comes into this game 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a Road Underdog. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they allowed 30+ points. The Underdog in this series has covered the spread in four straight. Also consider that Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last four home games as a favorite and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a straight up loss. They are NOT a good team. System says take Bengals.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss.
Cincinnati 27, Washington 16
New Orleans Saints -3.5 (10 Units)
The obvious play here is going to be on the Falcons because QB Drew Brees is out and QB Jameis Winston is shocking "not going to be involved in offensive plays" but do we really believe this and even then, do we know what to expect with QB Taysom Hill at the helms? The system likes this play under Version A and Version B so there's that and I'm going to be on it. The Falcons come into this game on a nice two game win streak beating Denver and Carolina but now they face one of the best all-around teams in the NFL who have won six straight games. Brees was worth some 3-4 points in the spread because it opened at -7 in some books and has gone down to 3.5 at almost every book right now. The Falcons again will be popular because of their success the last few seasons as a road underdog but, and it's a big but, they are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a game where they score 30+ points. The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing against a team with a losing record overall and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons. Also consider that when this team is hot they are hot and they have covered the spread in 29 of their last 43 games coming off a spread cover the previous game. The Falcons have all their weapons back and this game could go back and forth but if there is one guy who is familiar with the offense in New Orleans it's Taysom Hill. Buckle up for this one.
Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record.
New Orleans 31, Atlanta 17
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 (10 Units)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably and not so arguably the best team in the NFL coming into this week with their 9-0 record (best in the NFL and only undefeated team) and they are also 7-2 ATS on the year. This team doesn't mess around and when it's time to put away opponents they put them away. The system has been all over the Steelers in 2020 and it's on them again this week under Version A and Version B. Hard to go against it. I know the Jaguars will have some popularity because of the way rookie RB Jake Luton has played so far this season and because of the way they competed at Green Bay last week but you really can't compare Green Bay's depleted defense to this one of the Steelers. Right now the Steelers rank TOP 10 in every major NFL defensive category including having the #3 ranked points scored defense in the league and ranking #5 against the pass. We all know the Jaguars are going to have to pass in this game and pass a lot so that's not a good thing for a rookie quarterback. Under Mike Tomlin this Steelers team is not a letdown team. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up win. They have also covered five straight spreads versus AFC Conference opponents and the Road Team in this series is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Jacksonville is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus AFC Conference opponents and despite playing well recently they've covered only 2 of their last 7 overall. Steelers should win this big.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they score 30+ points.
Pittsburgh 37, Jacksonville 9
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (10 Units)
Alright this is one of those that falls under Version A only and does NOT fall under Version B due to Suggested Line 4 which says Browns cover. Approach this one at your own risk but I am obviously betting on and posting all system plays so here we are. The average line says Cleveland by only 1.7 so we are going Eagles here. Yes the same Eagles who just got clobbered by the Giants. At the same time though they did beat the Giants and beat the Cowboys in the two weeks prior and they did keep it close with Baltimore and grab a win in San Fran. The Browns are that team. Everytime you think they're going to win and/or cover they somehow screw you over. Look at last week. The system was on Houston and yes we got lucky but all things have to be considered in NFL betting including teams who like to end games the way Nick Chubb ended that (okay maybe that's a reach but you get what I mean). The last two times the Browns have won a game they have lost the next (against Pittsburgh and Las Vegas). The Eagles need a win in this one to keep up in the horrendous NFC East Division race and they are now starting to get healthy. Also keep in mind that Cleveland have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 27 games played in the month of November and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record on the season. The Browns are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a Favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game. So far this season the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming off a spread loss covering against the Niners, Ravens and Cowboys. That trend should continue after the brutal loss to Giants last week.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming off a spread loss this season.
Philadelphia 23, Cleveland 20
Carolina Panthers +3 (10 Units)
The line just went bonkers with the announcement that QB Teddy Bridgewater is out for this game and QB PJ Walker is getting the start. The system likes this play under Version A and Version B and it will be interesting to track how injuries impact these lines in the future but for now I will follow. Walker has only played a handful of downs this season and this is a big risk to take with CMAC out and the Panthers offense all of a sudden looking like it could struggle but Carolina has to have a game plan in place. They've lost 5 straight games coming into this one but have covered the spread in two of those games. The Lions look like an easy play now but they come in having lost two of their last three games overall and they just barely got by a very bad Washington team last week. Three of their four road wins this season (yes I'm shocked too that they've won four on the road) have come by 3 points or less. The Lions are only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus NFC Conference opponents and only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Road Games. They are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played in November and have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 20 games overall. Carolina comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a double digit loss at home. The Underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. Odds are stacked against them but I think the Panthers find a way to win. Again I am treading lightly here because I may have to design something to incorporate major QB injuries depending on how this game and the Saints game goes. Nonetheless playing this.
Trend of the Game: Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog.
Carolina 22, Detroit 21
Tennessee Titans +6 (10 Units)
Oh wow this should be a great game and the system is calling for a play under Version A only so again tread lightly if you are not a fan of this version becaue Suggested Line 2 is saying this is not a play under Version B. Obviously most would expect the Ravens to bounce back after their horrendous effort against the Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football but maybe this team is just not that good? Both teams come in with a 6-3 record on the season so this should be a huge game for both. The Titans are coming off a bad loss to Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week but they've had those extra days to rest while Baltimore comes in on short rest after taking a beatdown and they have now lost two of their last three games. They lost to the Patriots and they also lost the Steelers the week before. Now they face another team considered in the TOP 10 teams in the NFL so this should be close as the system is calling for. Tennesse for some reason enjoys playing games on this Field Turf stuff and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on this instead of real grass. Not sure how much that means but maybe it means something. Baltimore on the other hand has covered the spread in only 5 of their last 18 Home Games as a Favorite. They are only 1-5 ATS overall in their last six games as a Favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss. Good Lord. Like I said before I think this game is close and I think the Titans keep it within a touchdown and possibly win late as per the system.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on Field Turf.
Tennessee 31, Baltimore 28
New England Patriots -2.5 (10 Units)
This feels like a gigantic trap doesn't it because of the way the Patriots played on Sunday Night Football absolutely destroying the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens but hey maybe they have turned that corner and maybe their defense is up to the task of carrying this team on their shoulders? It's hard to believe the way this team has been playing but they are currently on a two game win streak and gaining condifence and getting healthy on defense. This play falls under Version A and Version B so we are a full go on the Pats to win and cover. Houston looked absolutely awful last week in some terrible conditions in Cleveland so we can't really blame them but if Nick Chubb doesn't go down on the 1 yard line instead of scoring a touchdown then the Texans don't even cover but we'll take it since the system picked them. The only home win of the season for Houston was against the Jacksonville Jaguars and in other games they lost to Baltimore by 17, Minnnesota by 8 and Green Bay by 15. Those are all decent teams and right now I've got the Patriots slowly creeping back into the list of top teams or mid-tier teams. Keep in mind folks New England has covered the spread in 22 of their last 30 games versus a team with a losing record on the season and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Houston. The Texans are an ATS disaster for the most part. They have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 Home Games and only 2 of their last 10 overall so for them to cover two in a row would be shocking. HOUSTON IS 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and only 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a spread cover in the previous game! They are also only 1-5 ATS in their last six Home Games as an Underdog. The Pats keep rolling says the system.
Trend of the Game: New England is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games versus a team with a losing record on the season.
New England 26, Houston 19
:toast:
