Guys, this is going to be one of those threads where we are all invited to speculate and where the real value of the discussion will be found in the arguments achieved through rational open discussion.
Mansion Sportsbook... I'll quote whatever bits of information I had on these guys few months ago (09.26.04 in this thread):
How would that be possible?
I still think it's to early to lower the guard... specially if you're a post-up player... I think the risk factor is still a very significative part of the formula with these guys...
I know many guys are wondering what to do after NFL... get out? Stay and play buckets? How long can you guys profit at this rate?
I think the proof will be in the pudding... Mansion might be up to a very big 'run in the bank' after Super Bowl Sunday if players decide to test their financial stability and the promptness if their payouts... hopefully, they won't miss a beat.
Good luck, snipers and please stop by and comment... inquiring minds want to know...
Mansion Sportsbook... I'll quote whatever bits of information I had on these guys few months ago (09.26.04 in this thread):
During the last 3 months, most of the sharp players I have talked to were concerned about the lines Mansion was dealing. They seemed to be soft and pretty much open for pillaging. Not any longer. It seems the guys @ Mansion are now being fed prime time info and they're beating a lot of SHARP guys to the numbers. They seem to be anticipating the moves...I have asked some people about Mansion. Although I cannot vouch for the veracity of the reports on this new sportsbooks, this is what I have heard:
As Bert says, there are rumors about Mansion being an operation set to conquer the American and the European markets. This opeartion would be backed up by a huge ASIAN GIANT, a powerhouse with extremely deep pockets.
If this is true, it makes perfect sense for them to go after:
1. Pinnacle, the top sportsbook in the American market. That would be why they're offering -105.
2. Betfair, the top sports exchange on this side of the planet. That would explain the exchange at no commission
How can they afford to lose money offering lines like the ones they have been offering? I'd speculate that if this rumor is true, MANSION is the anticipated response of the Asian tigers to the Pinnacle and Betfair models, who will eventually move into Asia.
Now, if they want to enter the market and be worthy of consideration by the players, they need to disrupt the existing models that have been proven to make money. That's probably why they're offering a 10 cent line (-105/-105, the juice is not being manipulated yet) and an exchange at 0% of commission.
I believe the -105 and the 0% are simply a marketing move; as soon as they reach critical mass, the 10 cent line will present an asymmetrical straddle, just like Pinnacle... quite possibly, they will even try to offer a way to "middle" Pinnacle.
When it comes to the Sports Exchange, if they already have a huge volume generated by the Asian market, they have an advantage over BetFair, that can't still claim they own the Asian market.
How is this of benefit to the players? For shrewd players that understand numbers, this is an invitation to become active members of this new book and CASH a lot of winning tickets at the early stages of this company.
If this analysis on my part is true, these guys have the vision to brecome really big. However, the only way they can compete is if they really are backed by these Asian giants. I believe they should also look for an EXTREMELY SHARP TEAM OF ODDMAKERS and LINE MANAGERS.
Good luck to those who play with them and let's hope they are not a flight-by-night shop... after all, it would make no sense whatsoever that they set shop in Gibraltar if they are out to scam only.
How would that be possible?
- They have welcomed all the sharp players in the American market. They might have already figured out which of them generate the moves, hence anticipating the steam
- When it comes to the PL (soccer), we need to remember these guys have access to big action from Asian credit heavyweights HOURS before the European and American markets even open. The line moves in the Premier League are insane.
- Rumor has it, the main guy behind this operation is not only filthy rotten rich, he's also a HUGE gambler... we know about the offsetting values of a BOOKMAKING-BETTING OUT model...
I still think it's to early to lower the guard... specially if you're a post-up player... I think the risk factor is still a very significative part of the formula with these guys...
I know many guys are wondering what to do after NFL... get out? Stay and play buckets? How long can you guys profit at this rate?
I think the proof will be in the pudding... Mansion might be up to a very big 'run in the bank' after Super Bowl Sunday if players decide to test their financial stability and the promptness if their payouts... hopefully, they won't miss a beat.
Good luck, snipers and please stop by and comment... inquiring minds want to know...

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