Agree with you on the Fullerton-Arizona game, Winky. I strongly believe Fullerton is one of the best teams in the country and will make it to Omaha but this game against Arizona is not free money. I do think they will win but I would pass as well.
Great job so far and keep up the good work!
Great job so far and keep up the good work!
glad i could get USC home to make up for Pepperidge Farm. what makes me mad about the Pepp/URI game is AFTER i made the play and AFTER the game started i saw something about the game that had i seen BEFOREHAND would have either kept me off Pepp - or even put me on URI - oh, well.
if my "losing" days only end up being for about 0.1 units i can take that
as for the fullerton game - i am not going to say too much about it for i saw a few things that will help me/us cash some big time tickets down the line because of this game - and the less i say here, the better. no reason to tip off the books and have them know it, too - and then set the line against the way i want to play
as for Sunday action - there is ONE GAME i REALLY have my eyes set on. if i get near the line i think i might i am going to UNLOAD on it. i won't say which game it is - only the game is being played in a time zone EAST of the Mississippi and will start before Noon (PDT - once again - the ONLY time zone that matters to me and what all my plays are in since i live in the PDT). i will have it up here in plenty of time before the game - hopefully - depending on when the lines for sunday games come out.
and speaking of sunday games - odds are we will only be able to play the first game of the day at the sites since the 2nd game of the day won't be set until the 1st game ends - and then the winner of that game plays like 40 iminutes later - making it almost impossible for the books to set a line in time. some will - but it will be tough to make plays on it.
for those who played the 3 regional winning picks - all 3 look VERY nice - with ALL 3 having to win only 1 more game to advance - and lose 2 to get sent home. you can put OSU in the bank NOW and ASU is going to get there, too - with only USC being the play that has any chance of failing to cash
i am now off to bed since it is 1:30A and i have been up since 6:30A saturday morning with only 5 hours sleep (which is only 1 hour less than normal - so not too bad). see y'all within the next 8-ish hours
if my "losing" days only end up being for about 0.1 units i can take that
as for the fullerton game - i am not going to say too much about it for i saw a few things that will help me/us cash some big time tickets down the line because of this game - and the less i say here, the better. no reason to tip off the books and have them know it, too - and then set the line against the way i want to play
as for Sunday action - there is ONE GAME i REALLY have my eyes set on. if i get near the line i think i might i am going to UNLOAD on it. i won't say which game it is - only the game is being played in a time zone EAST of the Mississippi and will start before Noon (PDT - once again - the ONLY time zone that matters to me and what all my plays are in since i live in the PDT). i will have it up here in plenty of time before the game - hopefully - depending on when the lines for sunday games come out.
and speaking of sunday games - odds are we will only be able to play the first game of the day at the sites since the 2nd game of the day won't be set until the 1st game ends - and then the winner of that game plays like 40 iminutes later - making it almost impossible for the books to set a line in time. some will - but it will be tough to make plays on it.
for those who played the 3 regional winning picks - all 3 look VERY nice - with ALL 3 having to win only 1 more game to advance - and lose 2 to get sent home. you can put OSU in the bank NOW and ASU is going to get there, too - with only USC being the play that has any chance of failing to cash
i am now off to bed since it is 1:30A and i have been up since 6:30A saturday morning with only 5 hours sleep (which is only 1 hour less than normal - so not too bad). see y'all within the next 8-ish hours
in a game set to start in about 20 minutes
Auburn plays Army
was all set to take Auburn but the more i look at this game - Army looks like a potentially live dog here. NOT going to play the game - but just want to warn anyone thinking of laying the heavy chalk with Auburn to think twice about it. Auburn might blow out Army - but the Cadets tend to stay in NCAA games and if i am laying around -250 i don't want a 1-run game headed to the 8th inning
Auburn plays Army
was all set to take Auburn but the more i look at this game - Army looks like a potentially live dog here. NOT going to play the game - but just want to warn anyone thinking of laying the heavy chalk with Auburn to think twice about it. Auburn might blow out Army - but the Cadets tend to stay in NCAA games and if i am laying around -250 i don't want a 1-run game headed to the 8th inning
The BIGGGGGGGGGGG play for Sunday
***I might be back real soon for another play for Sunday***
saturday was a 1-1 day for college bases - losing only about 0.1 units - but also setting up 3 regional winning picks to cash - oregon state -210, arizona state +150 and the laugher of them all - usc +500 when they never should have been higher than +150
Sunday - i have one game i am TEEING OFF ON (Starts @ 1P)
Long Beach -177
Pepperdine -162
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE LB here - we have a Friday pitcher going against a Sunday pitcher. For those who wonder what this means - in college ball - your best pitcher goes on Friday, 2nd best on Saturday and worst starter on Sunday. Let's use Randy Johnson as an example. For most of his career - RJ would be considered a "Friday" starter - someone who you send out there knowing he is your best pitcher. These days RJ would be a Saturday or Sunday starter - someone who is NOT your staff's best pitcher. Enright has a 9-1 record while Ramos is 10-6 but if Ramos pitched on Sunday he might be 16-0 while if Enright pitched on Friday he'd be more like 1-9. Ramos faces pitchers like Ricky Romero of Fullerton while Enright faces stiffs - as does his teammates - so the team gets in high scoring games and can overcome the fact Enright isn't that good. Won't happen today!
Cesar Ramos is a 3rd team All-American with a 2.27 ERA facing Freshman Barry Enright with a 4.68 ERA. Ramos is also a Junior and this very well could be his LAST-EVER home game for Long Beach (and it will since USC wins this regional). I have zero doubt we get "that much" better of an effort from Ramos with this in mind.
Ramos' WHIP is UNDER 1.00 while Enright is around 1.50 which means Enright is putting on 1 extra runner per 2 innings and that will soon add up to trouble for him.
Opponents hit .220 against Ramos - and .306 against Enright. So now we have a pitcher who puts more runners on base - then sees them score more often because opponents put the ball into play more often. And as I have stated many times - for my money - Blair Field in LB is THE TOUGHEST place in ALL of college baseball to hit homeruns at - especialy at night (This game is played during the day - but just keep this in mind for later). The entire LB staff only gave up 14 for the season while LB only hit 23. Right now the weather is kind of cloudy and overcast - meaning the ball will be weighed down even more making it even less likely to fly out and while Pepperdine isn't a power team, either (Hit 33 - gave up 31) but if we go back to ERA, WHIP and opponents average we see LB has a HUGE advantage in all categories in this one.
And Pepperidge Farm sure looks like they spent all their energy LAST week at the WCC tourney and are left with little in the gas tank.
We also get a PISSED OFF LB squad after giving away last night's game against a team that should have lost to URI. I read the quotes and report on the LB/USC game and simply put - LB gave the Condoms the game with bad fielding and stupid plays all around. Pepperdine was given 2 unearned runs in beating URI 2-1 in a game they should have lost. Friday Pepperdine looked lost against USC and this was against someone other than USC's #1 starter. I can only imagine what will happen today against LB's #1 starter.
The ONLY thing that scares me about this game is LB's ineptitude at scoring runs and while they have put up 11 and 4 the last 2 days - 8 of the 11 runs Friday came in 1 inning. Take that away and it is 3 and 4 runs. LB CAN'T win a high scoring game - they just aren't that kind of team. If Pepperdine scores 5 runs in this game I'd say they stand about a 75% chance of winning the game. I don't think they will, though.
Let's make the final: LB 4, Pepperdine 2
Long Beach -177 is the play here
***I might be back real soon for another play for Sunday***
saturday was a 1-1 day for college bases - losing only about 0.1 units - but also setting up 3 regional winning picks to cash - oregon state -210, arizona state +150 and the laugher of them all - usc +500 when they never should have been higher than +150
Sunday - i have one game i am TEEING OFF ON (Starts @ 1P)
Long Beach -177
Pepperdine -162
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE LB here - we have a Friday pitcher going against a Sunday pitcher. For those who wonder what this means - in college ball - your best pitcher goes on Friday, 2nd best on Saturday and worst starter on Sunday. Let's use Randy Johnson as an example. For most of his career - RJ would be considered a "Friday" starter - someone who you send out there knowing he is your best pitcher. These days RJ would be a Saturday or Sunday starter - someone who is NOT your staff's best pitcher. Enright has a 9-1 record while Ramos is 10-6 but if Ramos pitched on Sunday he might be 16-0 while if Enright pitched on Friday he'd be more like 1-9. Ramos faces pitchers like Ricky Romero of Fullerton while Enright faces stiffs - as does his teammates - so the team gets in high scoring games and can overcome the fact Enright isn't that good. Won't happen today!
Cesar Ramos is a 3rd team All-American with a 2.27 ERA facing Freshman Barry Enright with a 4.68 ERA. Ramos is also a Junior and this very well could be his LAST-EVER home game for Long Beach (and it will since USC wins this regional). I have zero doubt we get "that much" better of an effort from Ramos with this in mind.
Ramos' WHIP is UNDER 1.00 while Enright is around 1.50 which means Enright is putting on 1 extra runner per 2 innings and that will soon add up to trouble for him.
Opponents hit .220 against Ramos - and .306 against Enright. So now we have a pitcher who puts more runners on base - then sees them score more often because opponents put the ball into play more often. And as I have stated many times - for my money - Blair Field in LB is THE TOUGHEST place in ALL of college baseball to hit homeruns at - especialy at night (This game is played during the day - but just keep this in mind for later). The entire LB staff only gave up 14 for the season while LB only hit 23. Right now the weather is kind of cloudy and overcast - meaning the ball will be weighed down even more making it even less likely to fly out and while Pepperdine isn't a power team, either (Hit 33 - gave up 31) but if we go back to ERA, WHIP and opponents average we see LB has a HUGE advantage in all categories in this one.
And Pepperidge Farm sure looks like they spent all their energy LAST week at the WCC tourney and are left with little in the gas tank.
We also get a PISSED OFF LB squad after giving away last night's game against a team that should have lost to URI. I read the quotes and report on the LB/USC game and simply put - LB gave the Condoms the game with bad fielding and stupid plays all around. Pepperdine was given 2 unearned runs in beating URI 2-1 in a game they should have lost. Friday Pepperdine looked lost against USC and this was against someone other than USC's #1 starter. I can only imagine what will happen today against LB's #1 starter.
The ONLY thing that scares me about this game is LB's ineptitude at scoring runs and while they have put up 11 and 4 the last 2 days - 8 of the 11 runs Friday came in 1 inning. Take that away and it is 3 and 4 runs. LB CAN'T win a high scoring game - they just aren't that kind of team. If Pepperdine scores 5 runs in this game I'd say they stand about a 75% chance of winning the game. I don't think they will, though.
Let's make the final: LB 4, Pepperdine 2
Long Beach -177 is the play here
Holy - you ain't the only one
they should KILL URI - don't. there is no way they should have killed LB today - but did. and when i saw Pepp had 6 runs i knew LB was in trouble. they simply didn't score many runs all season long - bad bad bad play hurts the wallet - and while this round will be very profitable for me due to 3 regional plays that all look good to cash - especially USC +500 a disppointing game selection card - that will get better (hopefully - lol) next week
they should KILL URI - don't. there is no way they should have killed LB today - but did. and when i saw Pepp had 6 runs i knew LB was in trouble. they simply didn't score many runs all season long - bad bad bad play hurts the wallet - and while this round will be very profitable for me due to 3 regional plays that all look good to cash - especially USC +500 a disppointing game selection card - that will get better (hopefully - lol) next week
No Partials said:
these games are BY FAR the toughest ones to analyze - for at this point in time - the pitchers for today's games are basically anyone who has an arm that isn't worn out. sometimes you bring the friday starter back for a few innings but on only 2 days rest - what can he have left? what happens usually is you throw someone out there to throw as long as he can - then 2-3 innings later someone comes in and so on.
as for the games today - nothing really stands out. General thoughts on the games:
SC/Ga Tech: Tech has a histoyr of gagging in the ost-season and SC has a history of making Omaha. The ONLY way I could play this game is the +175ish dog and SC
Baylor/Stanford: The Trees are not the same as year's past - but once again - past history shows the Trees win games like this. Lean to Baylor with what should be an ENORMOUS pitching edge - but not @ -180 - pass!
Rice/LS-what: HFA to LS-what. But this line is almost "pick" and it should - pass
Texass/Arksanas: The Texass team is not the same as year's past. AT THIS PRICE - Arkansas or no one
Pepp/USC: I have USC +500 to win this regional so instead of having them -145 for the game I have them +500. I like my chances of cashing my ticket here, still
Tulane/Bama: Tulane is NOT going to lose this game - but at -300 they aren't getting any of my money. TU wins - zero doubt about that
Fullerton/Zona: See above game (except we are -225). Last year we did the same thing - lose the winner's round game - then come back and win 3 more. at the game last night body language said it all - Fullerton was sky high and Zona looked flat at game's end. Zona is a damn fine coached team - one of the best on the country - and giving Andy Lopez almost $2 in a game is not smart - so I won't - but Fullerton wins this game - ZERO doubt about it. FYI - last night's game started @ 8;30 and didn't end until about 12:15A - yet there was well over 1,00 people still at the end of the game and tonite - for a 6P game - the crowd will hopefully be packed and root us on to a win - and I already have my ticket for the game - "F" the Heat/Pistons
GL Winky............
Best of Luck, my friend!
I'm on Fullerton, and have a feeling they win in Fine Fashion!
They did knock my GameCocks out last year!
You were Dead-On w/ analyse on that Ga Tech/SC observation!
Put alittle something on The GameCocks!
Enjoy The Game-------MR. Newlywed
Best of Luck, my friend!
I'm on Fullerton, and have a feeling they win in Fine Fashion!
They did knock my GameCocks out last year!
You were Dead-On w/ analyse on that Ga Tech/SC observation!
Put alittle something on The GameCocks!
Enjoy The Game-------MR. Newlywed
