I already let him know earlier in the thread that he would be 12-1!
my bad bad bad
serious on Derby Day about 5-2 or 3-1 depends somewhat on if War Pass runs a huge race Saturday and gets back in the 5-1 range. I think people know that Pryo does not have to run a huge race in a week that is just a prep to peak May 3rd. But War pass could be as low as 5-1 or not even go to the Derby with another terrible race (he qualfies in earnings but if he is not right they will hold him back)
Saturday sees War Pass place at The Wood Memorial in New York..
Tale of Ekati, ridden by Edgar Prado, held on to edge War Pass, who finished last in his previous race, by a half-length in the Wood Memorial on Saturday.
Coming off a dismal effort in the Tampa Bay Derby last month, where he finished last, Kentucky Derby hopeful War Pass managed to hang on and place in his final Kentucky Derby prep. War Pass was overtaken by Tale of Ekati in deep stretch, losing by a half-length.
Trainer Nick Zito said War Pass, the champion as a 2-year-old, would be shipped to Churchill Downs and would run in the Kentucky Derby “as long as he has a good month.”
Meanwhile Tale of Ekati jumped back into the thick of the Kentucky Derby picture. Trained by Barclay Tagg who trained 2003 Ky Derby winner Funny Cide, also trains the Tampa Bay Derby winner Big Truck, adds another Derby contender to the field by winning The Wood...
Out west at Santa Anita, Colonel John Under Corey Nakatani blew past Bob Black Jack in deep stretch for a half-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
Winning trainer Eoin Harty said Colonel John’s victory was huge as over the years the Santa Anita Derby winner can be counted on to compete well during Churchill's Annual "Run For The Roses"..
The plot thickens...
wil..
Tale of Ekati, ridden by Edgar Prado, held on to edge War Pass, who finished last in his previous race, by a half-length in the Wood Memorial on Saturday.
Coming off a dismal effort in the Tampa Bay Derby last month, where he finished last, Kentucky Derby hopeful War Pass managed to hang on and place in his final Kentucky Derby prep. War Pass was overtaken by Tale of Ekati in deep stretch, losing by a half-length.
Trainer Nick Zito said War Pass, the champion as a 2-year-old, would be shipped to Churchill Downs and would run in the Kentucky Derby “as long as he has a good month.”
Meanwhile Tale of Ekati jumped back into the thick of the Kentucky Derby picture. Trained by Barclay Tagg who trained 2003 Ky Derby winner Funny Cide, also trains the Tampa Bay Derby winner Big Truck, adds another Derby contender to the field by winning The Wood...
Out west at Santa Anita, Colonel John Under Corey Nakatani blew past Bob Black Jack in deep stretch for a half-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
Winning trainer Eoin Harty said Colonel John’s victory was huge as over the years the Santa Anita Derby winner can be counted on to compete well during Churchill's Annual "Run For The Roses"..
The plot thickens...
wil..
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This is my pick and don't say the horse won't run on a dirt
track.
Colonel John proves best of West
By JAY PRIVMAN
ARCADIA, Calif. - Colonel John asserted his position as the best of the West Coast's Kentucky Derby prospects on Saturday, when he overcame traffic on the final turn and roared down the stretch to take the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby.
A massive crowd track officials estimated at more than 50,000 took in the 71st Santa Anita Derby, which was run under cool, overcast conditions. But there was nothing cloudy about the performance of Colonel John, who proved much best and now heads to Churchill Downs as the likely third choice, behind Big Brown and Pyro, in the Derby on May 3.
Colonel John ($7.20) used long, powerful strides to reel in Bob Black Jack, who turned in a sensational performance racing at a distance likely beyond his optimum. Colonel John won by a half-length, with Coast Guard a length behind Bob Black Jack in third. Yankee Bravo was fourth and was followed, in order, by El Gato Malo, On the Virg, Shore Do, Meetingwithdestiny, Polonius, Rosso Corsa, and Signature Move.
Colonel John completed 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic surface in 1:48.16. The early fractions of 23.33 seconds, 47.57, 1:11.64, and 1:35.50 all belonged to Coast Guard, who led until Bob Black Jack took the lead passing the eighth pole.
The most impressive aspect of Colonel John's performance was that he was shuffled back from sixth to ninth on the final turn before closing furiously to win under jockey Corey Nakatani, who regained the mount when Garrett Gomez elected to ride Court Vision on Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
"I bided my time," Nakatani said. "When I called on him, he made his run."
Colonel John, a son of Tiznow, has 4 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts. Eoin Harty trains Colonel John for the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt, who also bred Colonel John.
Every race for Colonel John has been on a synthetic surface in California. Harty said Colonel John would have two works at Santa Anita, then go to Churchill Downs 12 days out. "Then he'll have one work, and I'll pray," Harty said.
The disappointment in the race was El Gato Malo, who who was sent off the 9-5 favorite to Colonel John's 5-2. El Gato Malo, shuffled back to 10th early, made a powerful move on the far turn, but flattened out.
"Disappointing," said his jockey David Flores. "He didn't finish."
The loss also was heartbreaking for Bob Black Jack's trainer, James Kasparoff, who looked near tears walking off the track.
"Tough beat," Kasparoff said. "He just got beat by a better horse."
track.
Colonel John proves best of West
By JAY PRIVMAN
ARCADIA, Calif. - Colonel John asserted his position as the best of the West Coast's Kentucky Derby prospects on Saturday, when he overcame traffic on the final turn and roared down the stretch to take the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby.
A massive crowd track officials estimated at more than 50,000 took in the 71st Santa Anita Derby, which was run under cool, overcast conditions. But there was nothing cloudy about the performance of Colonel John, who proved much best and now heads to Churchill Downs as the likely third choice, behind Big Brown and Pyro, in the Derby on May 3.
Colonel John ($7.20) used long, powerful strides to reel in Bob Black Jack, who turned in a sensational performance racing at a distance likely beyond his optimum. Colonel John won by a half-length, with Coast Guard a length behind Bob Black Jack in third. Yankee Bravo was fourth and was followed, in order, by El Gato Malo, On the Virg, Shore Do, Meetingwithdestiny, Polonius, Rosso Corsa, and Signature Move.
Colonel John completed 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic surface in 1:48.16. The early fractions of 23.33 seconds, 47.57, 1:11.64, and 1:35.50 all belonged to Coast Guard, who led until Bob Black Jack took the lead passing the eighth pole.
The most impressive aspect of Colonel John's performance was that he was shuffled back from sixth to ninth on the final turn before closing furiously to win under jockey Corey Nakatani, who regained the mount when Garrett Gomez elected to ride Court Vision on Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
"I bided my time," Nakatani said. "When I called on him, he made his run."
Colonel John, a son of Tiznow, has 4 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts. Eoin Harty trains Colonel John for the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt, who also bred Colonel John.
Every race for Colonel John has been on a synthetic surface in California. Harty said Colonel John would have two works at Santa Anita, then go to Churchill Downs 12 days out. "Then he'll have one work, and I'll pray," Harty said.
The disappointment in the race was El Gato Malo, who who was sent off the 9-5 favorite to Colonel John's 5-2. El Gato Malo, shuffled back to 10th early, made a powerful move on the far turn, but flattened out.
"Disappointing," said his jockey David Flores. "He didn't finish."
The loss also was heartbreaking for Bob Black Jack's trainer, James Kasparoff, who looked near tears walking off the track.
"Tough beat," Kasparoff said. "He just got beat by a better horse."
The numbers are in from Saturday.
Of the three winners, Recapturetheglory got the best Beyer Speed Figure, a 102. Colonel John got a 95, and Tale of Ekati a 93.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93519.html
Not very impressive when you consider that over the last 15 years, the average Beyer Speed Figure for the Kentucky Derby winner is a 109.
Of the three winners, Recapturetheglory got the best Beyer Speed Figure, a 102. Colonel John got a 95, and Tale of Ekati a 93.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93519.html
Not very impressive when you consider that over the last 15 years, the average Beyer Speed Figure for the Kentucky Derby winner is a 109.
No question that Big Brown ran a monster race in the Florida Derby but that race set up beautifully for him. Even though he was coming out of the twelve hole, which up until then horses were 0 for 29, there wasn't a great deal of speed inside of him and he was able to get to the lead by the turn. Plus there was next to no competition as far as class in that race. At 3/2 in that race, he was a steal.
This year's Derby field looks weak so he very well may win again. That being said however, difficult to see him going off at even money in a 20 horse field. As far as winning, should he have any difficulty out of the gate or should there be any rabbit in the race to force lively fractions, his chances will be compromised. I'll wait to see the complete field and determine how the race may set up before deciding on his chances.
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you have a great find and a great overlay derby day. hold your positions do not scalp out just watch your brown horse Derby day. your work is done.
the rest of us have to scramble now.
you can post just after the race next time...thanks!
Big Brown had his first workout since the Florida Derby. I can't understand why Dutrow doesn't want to work him at least once over the Churchill Downs surface.
Big Brown turned in the first of what will be three pre-Derby workouts, all to come at the Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, shortly after dawn Saturday morning, when he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.53 under exercise rider Michelle Nevin. Trainer Rick Dutrow said he plans to keep Big Brown at Palm Meadows until April 28 when he'll have his final Derby work before flying to Louisville that afternoon.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93675.html
Big Brown turned in the first of what will be three pre-Derby workouts, all to come at the Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, shortly after dawn Saturday morning, when he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.53 under exercise rider Michelle Nevin. Trainer Rick Dutrow said he plans to keep Big Brown at Palm Meadows until April 28 when he'll have his final Derby work before flying to Louisville that afternoon.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93675.html
Monba got a Beyer Speed Figure of 92 in the Blue Grass. That was better than the 88 recorded by Hey Byrn in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, but less than the 103 earned by Gayego in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
Visionaire (fifth), Halo Najib (seventh), Cool Coal Man (ninth), Pyro (10th), and Big Truck (11th) are Blue Grass also-rans who are expected to return in the Derby.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93696.html
Big Brown is definitely a worthy favorite, but I don't see him going off at less than even money. I'm sure you know that more "dumb money" is bet on the Kentucky Derby than any other race. People who bet once or twice a year will look at longshots in general, high-profile jockeys and big name trainers. Both Pletcher and Zito's horses will be well backed. Also, it seems like every year the media will hype up a horse all week long and then on Derby day, that horse will be way overbet.
oldmanTED said:
I totally agree. Most of the contenders can't even crack the 100 Beyer mark consistantly. Although, I liked what I saw from Gayego with the switch from polytrack to dirt.
$hedrow$leeper said:
Exactly. At the very least, get one workout in at Churchill. Most of the other horses are already there or will be there within a week. Maybe I'm just oldschool on that one.
Seems very strange to not have a horse in the Derby trained by Baffert or D. Wayne.
