Lightly raced horses never seem to do well in the Kentucky Derby. If Big Brown does win in Florida, he will have two strong trends going against him.
A horse with four or fewer career starts has not won the Derby since Exterminator in 1918. That was 90 years ago. Curlin, the most talented 3-year-old last year, was the latest horse to fall to that trend.
Also, Derby winners with only two preps as a 3-year-old were Street Sense in 2007, Sunny's Halo in 1983 and before that it was Jet Pilot in 1947. So with Street Sense breaking this trend last year, that's twice in the last 61 years. Street Sense had much more seasoning and experience heading into the Derby than Big Brown will have.
It looks like things got a little tougher for your horse as Big Brown drew post # 12 for Saturday.
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For a horse who has won just two races six months apart, Big Brown has become the buzz horse of this year's Kentucky Derby. Off those two wins, including a victory March 5 in a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park, he has been installed as the morning-line favorite for the Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream.
Nothing has stopped him so far. Not his feet, which have been plagued by quarter cracks in both front hooves. Not a change of trainers, from Patrick Reynolds to Richard Dutrow Jr. following his debut win last September. Not a switch of surfaces, from grass in his debut to dirt in his second start. And certainly not the inferior horses he has dusted by a combined margin of 24 lengths.
But in order to make the field for the May 3 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Big Brown is going to have to clear several significant hurdles on Saturday, most notably a steep rise in competition and a dreadful post position.
Big Brown landed the outside post when 12 3-year-olds were entered on Wednesday for the Florida Derby. Many of the other well-regarded runners in the race are outside, too, including Face the Cat (post 11), Majestic Warrior (10), Hey Byrn (9), and Elysium Fields (8).
Bill Mott, the trainer of Majestic Warrior, was disappointed in the draw. "It's as far outside as I could be to still consider running," Mott said from the Payson Park training center in Florida, where he is based in the winter. "At least it's not 11 or 12. Right now, we're in."
Ah, posts 11 and 12. Going 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Gulfstream, with a short run to the first turn, the outside posts are like the Bermuda Triangle. Since Gulfstream reconfigured its track four years ago, posts 11 (0 for 18) and 12 (0 for 11) are a combined 0 for 29 at 1 1/8 miles, the distance of the Florida Derby. Barbaro won from post 10 two years ago, but he was Barbaro.
Yet despite those grim stats, Dutrow professed no concern over the post.
"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.
"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."
Chuck Streva, the line-maker at Gulfstream, made Big Brown the 3-1 favorite, with Elysium Fields next at 4-1. The Florida Derby is the 10th race on a 12-race card, and it will be shown live on ESPN2 in a one-hour telecast beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern.