I read a lot of times that the "Sharp" money just came on a game and changed the line. How can you tell when this is going to happen, is it usually just before kickoff? On the same subject........if you're on the wrong side of that play is it smart to whatdya' call it? bet against yourself to just lose the juice?
there is no way to know when wiseguys will move a line...when you see a line jump 2-4 points it is wiseguy money...the smaller line moves like 4.5 to 5 or 5.5 are you usually public money...Sharps money means nothing to be honest...you cant win in this game by just playing line moves...RAS and Dr Bob can move lines like 5 points sometimes because they have so many followers that once there play is released books go ahead and move the line in anticipation of the action to give the players a bad line...I think you have more success going against big line moves than betting with them
Here are the best and easiest two rules to profit at sports betting. They are very simple and will never change.
1. Don't ever do it........but,......since most red-blooded American males are going to have a little something on the line on autumn Saturdays and Sundays, simply follow rule #2.
2. BE A BOOKIE.
1. Don't ever do it........but,......since most red-blooded American males are going to have a little something on the line on autumn Saturdays and Sundays, simply follow rule #2.
2. BE A BOOKIE.
SO TRUE. You will lose over time trying to piggy-back "sharp" moves. There are so many false oves nowadays, disguised to look like a big move and then the real side always comes back with a vengeance. the Rice Houston game this year comes to mind. someone in here posted something about working behind a counter at a VEgas sports book and having a "large player" come in heavy on Rice. (Which may or not have been true, however, the line dropped quickly.) Almost immediately after dropping a couple points, the "real side" came in and started betting theor balls off with two hands and pounded Houston. Houston of course rolled and everyone that thought they were getting some "inside information" got crushed. At least they didn't have to suffer though, as the game was pretty much a blowout from jumpstreet. Point being....if you're not in the room with Billy Walters or you don't have him or some of the other true "sharps" on your speed dial, then you don't TRULY know when a move is designed to fool the public and simply get themselves a better number. If you think that many of these groupd don't have people monitoring sites like these, you are sorely mistaken as well. They do. Information is a two way street. It's a market, and just like the real stock market, it is most easily and readily manipulated by the largest money.
BR great stuff, but you are missing a KEY point in being sucessful. DO NOT CHASE. I spose that falls under dont raise your bets, but when people lose they tend to get all stressed about it and think that they can win it all back in one play. This is a recipe for disaster and you can have a winning record, but by doing this you will always lose in the long run. It is very hard and even I do it sometimes, money management is KEY. LOL ill prolly put 500 on ASU tonight when i usually bet 2-300. I feel pretty confident in that tho. Mariotas 2nd freshman start on the road and just there second road game this year. ASU is good on both sides of the ball and will be PUMPED UP for this game tonight
Here's another important discipline-
Obviously, everyone who wagers are sports fans, and all sports fans have their favorite teams. If you are going to be a successful bettor, you CAN NOT have "my team". Having favorite teams is fine, we all have them but you need to be very careful when wagering on any game involving them. Too many people get sucked in to betting on "their team" because of sheer fan-blindness. The rule is this:
If you can't ever bet against a certain team, then you should never bet on them
Obviously, everyone who wagers are sports fans, and all sports fans have their favorite teams. If you are going to be a successful bettor, you CAN NOT have "my team". Having favorite teams is fine, we all have them but you need to be very careful when wagering on any game involving them. Too many people get sucked in to betting on "their team" because of sheer fan-blindness. The rule is this:
If you can't ever bet against a certain team, then you should never bet on them
Ridiculous advice. Buying points in Football on and off Key #'s 7 & 3 has tremendous value. Most books won't even let you buy off "3" anymore. Playing basic strategy teasers in the NFL are +EV and books despise anyone who bet's them properly. Parlays are outstanding if the lines on the parlay card are "stale" #'s. Correlated parlays have INSANE value. Just because you take +105 doesn't mean you have value especially at a razor sharp book like Pinny. They have opinions and are usually right. Ever hear of the "PINNY Lean" Sharpest outfit around. Betting the same amount on each game is foolish. You should be using Kelly Criterion to calculate bet size. Only good advice was #1 rest was crap lol
Copy paste from bettingresource.com....
Patience and DisciplinePatience and discipline are the two most important things you need to have in order to find the edge and succeed in sports betting. Yes, these two are more important than money management itself because, without patience and discipline you wouldn't be able to successfully employ an efficient money management plan. In sports betting, having patience and discipline is a special ability--if you cannot master this special ability you will never find the edge or become a +ev bettor. It may seem easy but mastering this ability is very difficult, it is as hard as climbing a slippery and almost vertical hill; you can lose control and slip anytime. For most bettors it is virtually impossible to maintain patience and discipline in the long run. They might do everything perfectly for 1 week, 1 month or even a year but eventually they will momentarily lose that special ability and that moment is enough to destroy the bankroll.Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars. Often bettors who load their sportsbook with short bankroll find it impossible to maintain patience and discipline in a consistent basis because they will get bored of using proper money management on such small amount. As a result they will lose their bankroll frequently and re-load numerous times to accumulate losses. These bettors turn few hundred dollar losses into few thousand dollars in a matter of few weeks while dreaming of turning few hundred dollars into few thousand dollars of profit! Without patience and discipline your dream will never come true. If you fall into this category of bettors, we highly recommend that you wait patiently and collect these deposits without any action till you get a reasonable ($1000 minimum) bankroll.
Patience and DisciplinePatience and discipline are the two most important things you need to have in order to find the edge and succeed in sports betting. Yes, these two are more important than money management itself because, without patience and discipline you wouldn't be able to successfully employ an efficient money management plan. In sports betting, having patience and discipline is a special ability--if you cannot master this special ability you will never find the edge or become a +ev bettor. It may seem easy but mastering this ability is very difficult, it is as hard as climbing a slippery and almost vertical hill; you can lose control and slip anytime. For most bettors it is virtually impossible to maintain patience and discipline in the long run. They might do everything perfectly for 1 week, 1 month or even a year but eventually they will momentarily lose that special ability and that moment is enough to destroy the bankroll.Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars. Often bettors who load their sportsbook with short bankroll find it impossible to maintain patience and discipline in a consistent basis because they will get bored of using proper money management on such small amount. As a result they will lose their bankroll frequently and re-load numerous times to accumulate losses. These bettors turn few hundred dollar losses into few thousand dollars in a matter of few weeks while dreaming of turning few hundred dollars into few thousand dollars of profit! Without patience and discipline your dream will never come true. If you fall into this category of bettors, we highly recommend that you wait patiently and collect these deposits without any action till you get a reasonable ($1000 minimum) bankroll.
Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.
But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.
Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Total Games played: 91 games
Spread came into play: 17 games
Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
