Numbers are on closing lines that I have. Those are for if the spread comes into play.
Last week for example, 14 games played, 3 games where the spread mattered:
Oakland+10 @ Atlanta
StLouis+5 @ Miami
Dallas+3.5 @ Balty
Other than that, either the dog won SU or the favorite covered the spread in the other 11 games played week 6 in NFL.
Perhaps there is a misunderstanding, but wizardofodd is correct in his presentation that the point spread matteres only 17% of the time IN THE NFL . . . Not college. So far this year it is around 18% but over many many years it has stabilized closer to 17%.
Nobody is talking about your data which you state as dogs are 57-32-2ATS, etc. He is not talking about spread records and that may be the source of confusion. Let me try to explain with a few different (similar meaning) words.
When you retrospectively analyze the outcomes of all NFL games INCLUDING PLAYOFFS, the spread does not matter in the outcome approximately 83% of the time. This means that if you can pick the WINNER of the game, make the bet and you will be cashing your tickets at an 83% clip. Conversely, you will lose those same bets 17% of the time. This is not a debatable topic. It is proven fact for many, many years. The only point of debate is whether someone understands the concept. This is not ATS.
Once again, here it is stated again in yet anothe way using this weekend's games as an example: GB -5.5 at St. Louis - if you think GB is going to win, lay the 5.5 as the number is not likely to come into play (Once again, 83% of the time if GB wins, they will win by more than 5.5). Using a different game as another example, let's look at Minnesota -6.5 at home playing AZ. If you have an opinion on this game and you believe AZ will beat MINN then play the ML on Arizona because we know that the point spread only will come into play at approximately 17% of the time. If you fell that MINN will win the game, then lay the 6.5 and don' go buying down to 6, etc.
If you don't agree with this, here is how you can prove it to yourself although it has been done for you precisely for weeks 1-6 by wizardofodd. And it has been done for decades by others. When week 7 is complete, go through the NFL results and ask yourself this simple question. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? Simple as that. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? If they were a dog and won outright, they covered the spread. If they were a favorite and won by more than the closing Vegas line, they covered the spread. Simple as that.
The only exception to this format is that DOUBLE DIGIT POINT SPREADS DO NOT APPLY TO THIS CONCEPT.
So when you check the results on Monday after the games have been played, you should find that approximately 17% of the time the point spread mattered in the outcome.
Bookie, when the poster says the spread only plays a part in 17 percent of the game, it doesnt have anything to do with the spread record of underdogs.
It means for example if you play all the underdogs on sunday, the spread is only gonna really come into play around 17 percent of the games. Meaning when the dogs win, they usually win outright, thus the spread is no factor.
I cant believe you didnt know this stat. Its almost the same every single year.
In other words, if you are able to pick the winner of the game, then the spread will only play a part in 17 percent of the games.
It means for example if you play all the underdogs on sunday, the spread is only gonna really come into play around 17 percent of the games. Meaning when the dogs win, they usually win outright, thus the spread is no factor.
I cant believe you didnt know this stat. Its almost the same every single year.
In other words, if you are able to pick the winner of the game, then the spread will only play a part in 17 percent of the games.
okay yes I get what you are saying now and I do know this. In NFL it is very profitable to play ML dogs...but not ML faves and In college it is not quite as profitable as NFL although it can be pretty decent...Its not that easy to pick the winner and look at tonights game...I need Seattle Huge and got it with the spread but if I played ML I would have lost
Those are good advice but if people followed it, you'll be out of business. lol The first advice I would give someone is don't think you can make a living betting sports cause you can't. There are exceptions of course but those are far and few. One of the top reasons most people fail is because whatever they win, they throw it all back in and more. The advice about betting similar amounts is so true. Once people start winning, they'll double or triple their bets and all the winnings from going 4-0 goes down the tubes on one game.
Another reason people fail is because of karma. You can study all you want, put all the stats in a computer or whatever they do but some people cannot win because they're just bad luck. Those people are better off flipping a coin. But you need those people to keep bookmaking alive so there's never a shortage of them.
All in all, people should appreciate what you post here because it is great information. It's up to them to dissect it and put it to good use. Keep up the good work and may you keep on taking money from the public.
