HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING AT SPORTS BETTING

pja101 · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
This is precisely what I have been doing for years.......and with proper MONEY MANAGEMENT.......and I know this is a BIG statement..........BUT YOU WILL PUT YOURSELF IN A POSITION THAT WILL MAKE IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR YOU TO LOSE!!

Remember my three rules about the NFL that I have preached in these forums since day one.

1. NEVER lay over 3 points

2. Get the BEST number

3. Bet against JOHN Q. PUBLIC

But what is amazing is this.........the SMALL MINORITY of bettors that will NOT EVER follow this wisdom..........and ACTULLY will do just the OPPOSITE of the three criterias I just mentioned..........AND THAT IS PROOF WHY THIS WILL ALWAYS BE A SURE FIRE WAY TO PUT MONEY IN YOUR POCKET!!!

Also, for good feng shui carma, ALWAYS put the lid down on your tiolet seat at home.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I responded to this thread in the CBB forum, though it seems there is a better discussion going on here in the offshore.

FISHHEAD, I agree with #2, and don't with #'s 1 and 3.

Simply put, if there is value in laying more than three points, why wouln't you? I'd be extremely interested to hear you answer.

Second, my biggest pet peeve is those who simply make a bet just to fade "John Q. Public."
Generally, I've found that it is usually Jose Q. Public that fades his brother John. The fact that people think they are sharp by simply fading wagerline numbers, or what the consensus of some posting forum is on, is ridiculous.

I tend to agree with Daryl Parsons. The less heavily bet sports are the easiest to beat. It's only logical for a linesmaker to spend the most time on the sports that recieve the most action. Thus, the most heavily bet sports have the sharpest lines.

Personally, I will spend more time on the Women's NCAA tourney than the men's. I'd be a fool not too, when the women's lines are much, much weaker. Eventually, bookmakers will begin to catch up on these sports, but I don't forsee that being any time soon.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

Understand, I am strictly speaking of the NFL with my three rule strategy.

On your value question..........say a game opens at -4.5 and goes to -6.

THERE IS WAY MORE VALUE IN TAKING THE +6 a few miniutes before kickoff than laying the -4.5 early........for the most part. Again, speaking strictly NFL.

Also, please understand I realize each game is different in how one ANALYZES THE LINE MOVEMENT itself.

In the above scenario, I am referring to this line being moved up 80%+ by square action, which is usually the case in the NFL!!.

This is where many novices cannot comprehend line movements accurately. One must understand what is causing a line to move and why.

Obviously, key injuries can lead to certain value plays if you happened to get down early. If you laid -4 against the Colts and then on Friday it is learned that MANNING is out, of course you have value with the -4.

pja101 · Mar 16, 2004

Fish, you never answered my question. Rather, you circled around my it. You stated:
"1. NEVER lay over 3 points"

Are you saying there in NEVER value in any favorite laying >3, unless there is an injury? I'm not sure why you threw the injury situation in there, you know that wasn't what I was referring to.

Fezzik · Mar 16, 2004

I agree 100% with Shrink (not always the case!).

I defy anyone competent to lose playing with his suggested strategy. If you can pick 50.5% ATS, you will win with his strategy.

It is interesting that Shrink has basically outlined how I personally bet, even though we have never had any discussions.

OF COURSE, there are always exceptions to simple rules, and I do bet some favorites and some overs, but my bet sizes are usually much lower and my win rate lower. The biggest reason is that it is darn tough to get extra "help" when laying the points. Sure, you can get some games like BC -1 that will close 2, but you need to correctly forecast the line move to say you got good rogue line value. However, if you are Betting Air Force vs. N Carolina you "know" you will get at least +8, even though the line at the sharp shops is 7.5. You may even get 8.5. Dog players basically play at no vig due to the extra 1/2 and sometimes 1 point you get. Favorite players (and over players) pay full vig since they don't get the rogue line help.

And dogs and unders also will hit in all sports around 49.5-52% ATS. So playing all with rogue lines puts you into the black.

Ps. I have no doubt Billy Walters would love to hit 55% going forward. With the sharp numbers out there, Billy would likely take 53-54% in this day and age. Especially one noted Saturday recently where every obvious "Walters" type line move lost. Billy and Co. may have gotten shredded on that day.

I personally don't think anyone playing heavily volume can hit 55% ATS vs. all the major sports. Sure, a hot mutual fund goes on a streak and hits 64% ATS one year in a sport, but then they fall back to reality with a 49%, 56%, 52% type run. That is why only 2% of the handicappers/scamdidappers show all their results on their websites. NONE of them would show 55% over a long period in major sports*.

*Gifted XFL, ARena and Tennis bettors could easily hit 60%, these sports have much softer lines.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by pja101:
Fish, you never answered my question. Rather, you circled around my it. You stated:
"1. NEVER lay over 3 points"

Are you saying there in NEVER value in any favorite laying >3, unless there is an injury? I'm not sure why you threw the injury situation in there, you know that wasn't what I was referring to.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

There is, but as a whole you will find much more value in the underdogs, so for discipline purposes do not even concern myself with anything over -3. If there was value in a favorite and I missed it, so be it.

I am just of the opinion and point in my life where I do not even bother looking at a favorite.

THE SHRINK · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by brewster:
Shrink,

When you say BEST number, are you talking about reduced juice as well? If the line stayed at +9 everywhere but one of your books hung even money on it would you still bang it? Or if you could get +9 1/2 at -107 or +9 even, which one do you hit??<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I would take the plus 9 even, though it is close...

BuzzRavanaugh · Mar 16, 2004

Absolutely terrific information. Great advice.

acw · Mar 16, 2004

Of course I agree with what you are saying but in the last couple of years it seems the markets are becoming more efficient, ie. the number of wiseguys has shot up dramatically so it is becoming less costly to go the square route.

On the European football it has now for some months literally swapped. You will find more value on the favourite side than on the outsiders. So many books have popped up here in Asia in recent months and they all think like Shrink does causing the favourites to become better and better prices while similar to the Caribbean books they have no fundamental knowledge of the games whatsoever.

I bet at least 4-5% of his 6-7% advantage was from bad lines and only 2% was pure handicapping.
Basically the more books that go under and the more we will have to bet into one big market will get these guys out of business too.

It is looking all good!

Railbird · Mar 16, 2004

Dont be swayed by line moves. If you took a team, and it moves 1.5 agaqinst you. Double pop it. If you miss out on a good line, so what, there is still chicken left on the bone. If your play looks great at halftime, double pop them at halftime, case in point FAMU 2nd half ML +173 tonight. Totally disregard people like Curtis Strabge, Digger Phelps, Ron Jaworski becasue they are morons.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

OOOOOK, disregard Jaworski.......Strange.........and Digger.

GOT IT!

THANKS!

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

Hows it goin Birdman??

Dont see ya much.....you must have your Tennis game in A shape.

Railbird · Mar 16, 2004

Fish,

I have been in the Coachella Valley, which is the grerater Palm Springs area, watching tennis all day. This Indian Wells tournament is basically the West Coast US Open. I am pretty much dialed in, who ever drinks gookinaid wins the 3 setters. But it is now banned by the atp, becasue it has 1/ billionth part of some illegal substances maybe. The temps here are 100 degrees. The tour moves to Key Biscayne next week.

I was very impressed with this coach from Talhassee C.C. that has moved his act over to FAMU.

Railbird · Mar 16, 2004

Oh yes Fishhead, this announcers and pregame analysts try to push their nonsense on us. I have the mute on at all times so they dont get to me.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

RAIL-

I have never mentioned to you before that I live 5 miles from Saddlebrook Golf and Tennis Resort here in Florida............Pete Sampras and Jennifer Capretti have homes there.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

This is Saddlebrook......my home is somewhere in the background of those trees. I have a very small treehouse.

lurkerforages · Mar 16, 2004

As a rule yes there is more dog value but like everything there are exceptions.

Big home dogs in CBB are horrible.
Even if you got an extra half point on every home dog of +10 or higher you still would not get anywhere near 50% let alone 52.38%.

Big road dogs of +10 or more in the NBA off a win are tragic.
A half point will not help.

As always pick your spots.

truthteller · Mar 16, 2004

I don't agree at all about mainly betting dogs. I have made a killing the last few years betting the road favourite when the line is 4 or less especially in the NBA.

It amazes me how much importance they put on playing at home when the team sucks really bad. For example, tonight they had Sonics favoured by only 2 on the road at Atlanta. I jumped on it early this morning (tracked BTW at MW)

I thought the line should have opened at least -4.5.

This formula has worked for me so far.

wilheim · Mar 16, 2004

FWIW - I have found over time that betting favs or dogs really does'nt matter if I have a established a pre-set number I think the game should be. Many cappers use power ratings, and have different home field or court values to go with the ratings. The trick is to fine tune the ratings as the season goes on. While nothing wrong with having an iron clad dogs only rule, I would not want to limit myself that way. When you make an NFL game 6, and feel strongly about the number, natrually you are more than happy to lay 3 if that is the line. With small dogs I ALWAYS ask myself if I can take the plus juice on the money line first. I try to make a case for any small dog to win the game outright on the field or court.

wil.

SportSavant · Mar 16, 2004

guys, this game may or may not win as I post this but a good example is the value that was to be found betting the UNDER in the Mizzou/Michigan game...

opened 139, closed @ 144.5.

I dont really have to say much more, but on a day with only three games on the card the oddsmakers were probably posting a line that was quite high to start with...then it was banged all the way to 144.5...

Taking the under at the last sec...espceially with reduced vig...to me is exceptional value....

bongzanpoker · Mar 16, 2004

fish, i understand your strategy and logic for the novice player but if what you described is your actual method you use due to disciplinary reasons then you're cutting yourself out of about 1/4 of the market opportunities. 'Baad JudggeMent' kgb. it's alright mate, different strokes for different folks. enjoying the reading.

darryl, the american market has tightened up, it couldnt of lasted forever but still enough opportunities exist, fewer, yeah definitely and it probably won't get much better for value hunters. do you use many european books?