HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING AT SPORTS BETTING

THE SHRINK · Mar 16, 2004

Though I have been around the block a few times when it comes to betting on sports, I have also made many mistakes over the years. One decisive factor that separates the losers from the winners is learning from our miscues. Simply put, winners do and losers don't.
We have all heard the typical words of wisdom which I'd like to refer to as Sports Betting 101.

Manage your bankroll properly, be disciplined, use multiple outs, and don't chase. In fact, sometimes the best bet we ever make is the one we never call in.

More than 30 years later, I have discovered a sure way to improve my winning percentage. I can also predict that many of you reading this column will not want to give it a try because it goes so much against your tendencies.

Billy Walters, one of my friends and mentors in this business, is arguably the greatest sports bettor our industry has ever known. Though he is the Michael Jordan of sports gambling, his lifetime winning percentage is only somewhere between 56 and 57 percent.

Therefore, I believe anyone who claims to have a higher winning rate than this man over a lifetime is stretching the truth.

One of the "pearls" that he and nearly every other professional bettor realizes is that there is much more VALUE betting UNDERDOGS and the UNDER.

This should be easy to figure out since the pointspread is not only based on TRUE VALUE, but also PUBLIC PERCEPTION.

Therefore, since the public tends to bet FAVORITES and the OVER much more so than underdogs and the under, there is a bias that exists which often is exploited by professional gamblers.

Now, here's the "pearl" that will make you a much better gambler if it is followed carefully. Multiple outs are a must, so if you don't have at least five, you might as well stop reading this now.

I have decided to bet on ONLY UNDERDOGS and ONLY when I can get a half-point the best of it. Since I have been doing this, my winning percentage has risen dramatically.

Virtually anyone can pick a favorite to WIN, but it takes much more skill and discipline to bet on only underdogs.

For example, when Duke was playing Maryland the other day, Duke was favored by nine points. When I see a betting line that is tainted at plus-nine everywhere, I will only bet the game if I can get a half-point better than the tainted number.

In this case, I waited for a 9 1/2 to pop up. It eventually did, as this happens quite often. So, I took only plus 9 1/2.

Therefore, I am betting only on the ‘dog, but I MUST GET a half-point better than the most common betting line out there.

I know this is not for everyone to try, but I'd be shocked to hear any "insider" refute this.

THE SHRINK

[This message was edited by THE SHRINK on March 16, 2004 at 03:41 PM.]

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

This is precisely what I have been doing for years.......and with proper MONEY MANAGEMENT.......and I know this is a BIG statement..........BUT YOU WILL PUT YOURSELF IN A POSITION THAT WILL MAKE IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR YOU TO LOSE!!

Remember my three rules about the NFL that I have preached in these forums since day one.

1. NEVER lay over 3 points

2. Get the BEST number

3. Bet against JOHN Q. PUBLIC

But what is amazing is this.........the SMALL MINORITY of bettors that will NOT EVER follow this wisdom..........and ACTULLY will do just the OPPOSITE of the three criterias I just mentioned..........AND THAT IS PROOF WHY THIS WILL ALWAYS BE A SURE FIRE WAY TO PUT MONEY IN YOUR POCKET!!!

Also, for good feng shui carma, ALWAYS put the lid down on your tiolet seat at home.

TheGeneral+ · Mar 16, 2004

Rock Solid advice here for all to read & For all to learn.

Good luck

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

Allow me to comment on what SHRINK was saying about waiting for the +9.5 to, as he says, POP.

This is an ideal way for you as a bettor to, how shall I say it, kill three birds with one stone.

You have one bird shot and killed right off the bat by looking at the UNDERDOG at +9.

By waiting close to game time, you know without a shadow of a doubt you are getting the best possible number if you are shopping for a line that shoots up close to gametime......bird two killed.

Way way more times than not(especially in the NFL), this line move up on the favorite will be caused by JOHN Q. PUBLIC and JOHN Q. SQUARE.

Thus you are going against them which is a good thing.................BIRD #3 SHOT, WOUNDED, AND KILLED!!!

Dante · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Multiple outs are a must, so if you don't have at least five, you might as well stop reading this now...
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> stopped reading

Journeyman · Mar 16, 2004

I have only bet Und and Dogs for the past two years, almost exclusively...I am still waiting though for it to pay off...

I still believe its the only way to go, it makes sense as its always been noted the avg Joe wants to take the fav and see lots of action with the over....and obviously the BM knows this so logically that number has to always have a lean towards the fav and the over....The part I have not followed in Ken`s theory is waiting for that number to move in my favor...Thanks for the advise Ken...

THE SHRINK · Mar 16, 2004

Journeyman,

Getting the BEST of the number is my most important point...

That's why Dante can never win in the long run without having multiple outs...

bongzanpoker · Mar 16, 2004

im guessing this is just in general terms for mug punters. if there is real value in a propostion u must play it no matter what it is but i agree u'll do slightly better if u play dog + under vs's fav and over. u must identify the value, if u can do that u'll be playing more than just dogs and unders.

fish, never lay over 3 points? what if say u're buddy offers u minus -4 and the line is 7 everywhere. u'll play then right? Q: just curious.. if u could get down at -3.5 and the line is 4 looking to go 4.5 not such a big game would u play it. maybe i just answered it for u but my point is to improve your chances and having any real chance of making money at betting u need to get the real value

brewster · Mar 16, 2004

Shrink,

When you say BEST number, are you talking about reduced juice as well? If the line stayed at +9 everywhere but one of your books hung even money on it would you still bang it? Or if you could get +9 1/2 at -107 or +9 even, which one do you hit??

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

BONG-

First off, welcome to the RX.

Finding a game at -4, when there are 6.5 or 7.0 around, would constitute being a bad line and I will not bet that. Understand, we are talking offshore, not locals here.

On your question about the game that I could find at -3.5 and now is up to -4.5.

It would depend on the sport, the time before gametime, and more importantly, RATHER I BELIEVE THE GAME WILL GO HIGHER THEN THE -4.5.

For your example, lets use the NFL as the sport and we are STRICTLY betting and not looking to middle. Like I mentioned, I NEVER lay more than -3 in the NFL and in this case I would be taking a strong look at the underdog as a play as it possibly fits all the criteria I mentioned above. DISCIPLINE AND PATIENCE is key in betting the NFL.

IF I can possibly wait till a few miniutes before kick-off the game might move through the dead number of -5 and straight to -5.5 at most places. Then you might have JOHN Q. SQUARE come in and bet the limit at the -5.5 moving the game to -6 at one of MANY OUTS right before kick-off.........AND THAT IS WHEN I POUNCE ON THE +6. If the game dosent move, no bet and nothing lost.

With MANY outs, and being patient, you will find MANY betable games in the NFL like this throughout the course of the year.......games which in the long run will produce you 57-60% winners!!

Like I mentioned, there are some variances.....the sport, the time of day, the key numbers involved, who is making the number move, where do I think the number is moving, etc.

bongzanpoker · Mar 16, 2004

u need to find out how many times (%) the fav wins by excatly 9 and then comparing the difference in price is worth that extra half point.

thing is in basketball every number comes into play so it makes selections trickier. cheers

Muddy · Mar 16, 2004

fyi
DOGS HAVE GONE 16874-17902 ATS IN THE LAST 13 YEARS IN COLLEGE HOOPS

bongzanpoker · Mar 16, 2004

hi fish, thankyou for the welcome, i know of this site but never posted because i worked and had no time, now i work for myself. ill be around.. mainly watching over the picks forums for all the winning plays.

just to clear things up i said a buddy to offer u 4 and the line is 7. fair enough u see it as a bad line and dont bet with him. i can respect that.

the 3.5 to 4.5 analogy i was specifically talking about the nfl. my point is u can win just as much betting favourites as you can by betting underdogs it just depedns on whether the value is there. that in my experience is the key to improving your chances of winning at sports betting. i dont set myself any boundaries, just keep betting the value which isnt very often unfortunately.

most people's betting efforts are futile, yeah, it's a bit of fun..

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by -=Scorpion=-:
fyi
DOGS HAVE GONE 16874-17902 ATS IN THE LAST 13 YEARS IN COLLEGE HOOPS<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

College baskets is a WHOLE different ballgame than the NFL and the NBA for that matter.

1. The numbers are MUCH weaker and......2. the line movements occur MUCH MUCH more because of wiseguy action.

There is NO WAY a bookmaker/oddsmaker can make a better number than somebody that follows an obscure team in an obscure conference.

Fishhead · Mar 16, 2004

That is why you have "STEAM" moves in college baskets............for all practical purposes there are no STEAM MOVES in the NFL......or the NBA for that matter............and if on rare occassion you might classify a move a STEAM move in the NFL or the NBA, it is for COMPLETELY different reasons than what a STEAM move is in college baskets.

daringly · Mar 16, 2004

I'd add to do your own capping. If you follow someone else, you're always getting a worse number, unless you shop the hell out of it.

Know your markets. The overnights are great - lines are weak when they first come out. But if no one appreciates how weak they are, you can safely wait a day until the market expands. Sometimes you'll even collude with other groups of sharps, and agree to not wack overnights, so you can hit them for bigger limits.

Fishhead - I agree with what you said, EXCEPT that after week 15, you can lay more than 3 in NFL.

bongzanpoker · Mar 16, 2004

hmm steam? i take that it means a particualr game being bet heavily for whatever reason. there are different types of steam? like hot steam, upside down steam, fake steam.

yes, basketball numbers arent as strong as nfl nba being stronger than college. it seems.

anyway, if u really want to increase your win % or actually win a few hundred bucks for all that work then reduce your amount of bets by half and with that other half of time, read, explore the odds and the resources that are out there.

ive just started betting sports seriously and im not doing very well so far..

TheGeneral+ · Mar 16, 2004

Still, in college hoops with this figure (16874-17902) it is still great strategy. One only has to hit a good % out of the 16874 winners. We are not going to bet the board. I think what is being said is look for dogs & unders more than favs and overs. When you find the dogs you like, then utilize the factors; the best line and the best vig, along with always using good money management.

Works for favorites as well, but dogs are most overlooked. As stated "Virtually anyone can pick a favorite to WIN".

Staying away from those high profile favs on national TV will help eliminate many losers right from the start.

Looking at unders and dogs is right up there with good money management when it comes to grinding out profits.

D2bets · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by -=Scorpion=-:
fyi
DOGS HAVE GONE 16874-17902 ATS IN THE LAST 13 YEARS IN COLLEGE HOOPS<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

1. Where did you get this from?
2. What spreads is it using? Opening? Closing? From where? What about pushes?

DarrylParsons · Mar 16, 2004

SHRINK and others,

Of course I agree with what you are saying but in the last couple of years it seems the markets are becoming more efficient, ie. the number of wiseguys has shot up dramatically so it is becoming less costly to go the square route.

I'd really like to see your friend Billy Walters hit 56-57% in this day and age at books like Pinnacle. I bet at least 4-5% of his 6-7% advantage was from bad lines and only 2% was pure handicapping.

The days of soft lines for decent stakes are getting numbered and so I see us moving into a new paradigm in which it almost doesn't matter what you do in the heavily bet pro sports like NFL, NBA and MLB. Sure a smart player will still have an edge, but it is nowhere near the levels it used to be IMO.

Today's successful approach is to do like Railbird and follow the less heavily bet sports (on a per event basis) like College Hoops (especially the smaller teams and divisions), tennis, golf, arena, hockey, etc.
Unfortunately, though, his methods are out of reach for most of us since you have to do a lot of legwork and be close to the action.

So overall I agree with your points but as time goes by these angles are getting less and less valuable. That's my perspective anyway.